Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Not sure if this was posted about Gordon, from BP:

 

In talking about SS prospects;

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31123

 

Nick Gordon, Twins

If you’re the type who likes to gamble on big-time upside, scroll back up and relive happier times, because Gordon ain’t for you. The then-20-year-old continued his slow but steady climb up the MiLB ladder last season, hitting .291/.335/.386 with 13 steals in High-A. He doesn’t have any power and lacks flashy speed, but the bat-to-ball ability is there, and Gordon is a lock to stay at shortstop. He might never be a top-10 options, but he’s in for lots of boring-ass top-20 or top-25 finishes. Sort of like the C.J. Cron of dynasty shortstop prospects.

 

He was also listed as the #34 dynasty SS: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31137

 

It’s like a clown car of top-101 prospects. Gordon and Newman aren’t the most exciting of dynasty farmhands, but they should be able to hit and hold down a starting position for most teams of medium depth in the near future.

[bluechipper]

 

There is no such thing as "DFA Waivers."  Nor is there anything called "trade waivers."  DFA and waiver rules are the same year-round.  Trading rules change after August, but the waiver process is identical.

 

The reason to do a DFA instead of just putting someone on waivers is that when you DFA someone, they immediately come off your roster.  When you waive someone, they don't.  Most players get waived in August but keep right on playing for the same team and never get traded or cut.

 

When the DFA happens, the team gets 10 days to decide what to do (cut, trade, waive/reassign to minors, or put back onto the roster).  

This is wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

tweet from eno sarris:

surprises me. Thought White Sox or A's would claim him.

 

tweet from Dave Cameron:

The Twins obviously had a better read on his market than I did. Still find it silly that a team like the White Sox didn't take him.

[ashbury]

This is wrong.

I agree. DFA for removing a player from the 40-man, as was the case for Park, is accomplished through the use of Special Waivers, which are irrevocable.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/waivers/

 

The kind of waivers that can be revoked are of use only when trying to construct a trade after the July 31 deadline until the end of the season.

 

I hate to harp, but misinformation has a way of making the rounds once started.

[Willihammer]

 

New Guy
2:05 Do we see Miguel Sano take a step forward this year, or is there too much swing and miss in his game? If yes, should he have a shot to hit 35 homers with an acceptable BA?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:07 His power upside is just insane. He does miss a lot, but he's at least swinging and missing against good pitches.

That's a good point IMO. Despite the strikeouts I think Sano's at bats were, on average, very competitive. Not the same quality of strikeouts compared to someone like Rosario or Buxton to a lesser extent.

 

I expect 40 homers / 100 walks / 150 k's from Sano this year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

batting averages are A LOT lower than we all realized these days.....

 

True, but when you combine a batting average like that with his walk rate.....ouch.  I'm hoping the Ks come down and the BBs go up, because i think that BA might be about right.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sandy Kazmir
2:33 Why do people think that Byung-Ho Park is a good hitter? Have they ever seen him swing? Ocean liners move faster than his bat.

 

Dan Szymborski
2:33 I don't think he's a good hitter. But he's a gamble for a bad team.
2:34 I don't think putting my life savings on 23 in roulette is a smart investment. But if my other choice is putting my life savings on Yonder Alonso...

 

 

Hannah Hochever
2:48 BH Park cleared waivers. Most FG people (and myself) seemed to be certain he'd get taken. What am I missing?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:48 Slow bat speed

 

So, do you think Dan realized he used one poster's logic, which he dismissed, to answer another posters question five minutes later? Seems like he might have been winging it in regards to his Park takes.

 

Also, I'm not sure why he thinks he'd have to bet on Alonso or Park, keeping your chips in your pocket is also an option.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So, do you think Dan realized he used one poster's logic, which he dismissed, to answer another posters question five minutes later? Seems like he might have been winging it in regards to his Park takes.

 

Also, I'm not sure why he thinks he'd have to bet on Alonso or Park, keeping your chips in your pocket is also an option.

 

do you think he said he'd rather have Park and Alonso, and nothing else in those responses? He was responding to an entire theme, just before that he talked about the A's not signing him....that was the context of the first response. Gotta look at context.....

 

would you rather have Alonso, or Park. He prefers Park, even with the slow bat speed.

[old nurse]

Yonder was a 6 million bet coming off 6 years in the NL with an OPS+ over 100, Park, much more money spent, no MLB history to bet on.  Park was the 23 on the roulette table and your weekly paycheck. . Alonso was more like betting on red. with the spare change in your pocket.  Can't really say there was an outrageously stupid . Para was mere a stupid contract

[Mike Sixel]

Cory: Lots of positive press about Hunter Greene going #1 to the Twins in the draft. Why should the Twins take someone other than Greene?

 

 

Klaw: Because high school pitchers are a high-risk class, and this draft has several college players who are 1-1 worthy.

[Mike Sixel]

Ron: Hi Keith- If Buxton is up all of 2017 and is the full-time CF for the Twins, Where would you rank his arm among CF in both leagues? One of the best or above average? Hope he can hit decent and get on base. Packs a lot of wallop in that frame!

 

 

Klaw: It’s at least a 70 arm. He’s a legit 5 tool guy, and regular readers know I hate when that term is thrown around loosely

[Mike Sixel]

Hank: As a Twins fan, I fear that Miguel Sano is going down the Chris Carter path. I still believe, but I also think this year is a make or break year for him….as far as for the Twins, not for his career by any means. Do you think he can improve and be the star everyone thought he would be?

 

 

Klaw: I think he’s a better hitter now than Carter ever was.

[Vanimal46]

 

Hank: As a Twins fan, I fear that Miguel Sano is going down the Chris Carter path. I still believe, but I also think this year is a make or break year for him….as far as for the Twins, not for his career by any means. Do you think he can improve and be the star everyone thought he would be?


Klaw: I think he’s a better hitter now than Carter ever was.

Couldn't disagree more with Hank. The comp of Chris Carter doesn't jive, and thinking it's a make or break year for Sano is silly. 

[Mike Sixel]

Alex P
9:16 If you were the Rockies GM, what would you have done differently this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan

9:17 Most recently, I would've put in a claim on Park
That would be a problem, because of Desmond, but I also wouldn't have signed Desmond, not for those terms

[drjim]

I'll give Fangraphs credit for their steadfast, unwavering love of Park. They are likely wrong, but at least they're consistent.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

BP top ten Twins prospects:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31145

 

BP Article on Sano's season PECOTA projection:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31142

[amjgt]

"unfortunately it all came crashing down with a major-league worst 59-103 record, which was the worst in Minnesota Twins history (based on W-L%)."

 

By what metric are they suggesting it might NOT have been the worst in Twins' History?

[amjgt]

Was there a season I don't know about where we played 180 games

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yes that is strange. I recall a couple of 174 game seasons, but those ended rather well

 

Maybe that writer had Games behind first place in his head. There have probably been some seasons where we finished with a better Win% but further back out of first.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Yes that is strange. I recall a couple of 174 game seasons, but those ended rather well

Maybe that writer had Games behind first place in his head. There have probably been some seasons where we finished with a better Win% but further back out of first.

Maybe he meant performance wise. There may have been seasons that we pitched and hit worse than we did last year? That would be my guess.

[70charger]

A quick scan of Wikipedia (which, if I learned anything in law school, is literally always right) shows that in 1995, the Twins only won 56 games. They only played 144. Similarly, in the strike-shortened 1994 season, they only won 53, out of a total of 113.

 

So I'm assuming that they are acknowledging that, while the Twins have won fewer games in a season, they have never had a worse percentage.

[Vanimal46]

A round-about way of getting someone's input for what the Twins are doing (adding veterans)

Erik
12:05 If you ran a rebuilding club, roughly how many roster spots would you give to unimpressive veterans as opposed to unproven young players? Where do you draw the line between needed some solidity and veteran leadership but also not taking at bats away from players who need them to develop?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:07 Interesting topic since there are so many 'meh' veteran FAs available late in the winter these days ... I'd want enough veterans to not rush any prospects, and to delay the service clocks of the elite prospects .... And in this market I might rather add an extra vet or two for cheap in hopes of flipping at the deadline

[Vanimal46]

Sam
1:03 Zips has Miguel Sano projected for .235/.324/.471 with 26 HR's. I must be greatly overrating Sano, because I think this seems very low for him. Do you forsee a Sano breakout, or are the Zips about right in your eyes?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:03 I foresee 35 HRs, with health, and .820ish OPS

[jimmer]

On ESPN site, there is an article about a player from each team having something to prove. From our team, its Buxton.

 

'Just a couple seasons ago, Buxton was the consensus top prospect in baseball, rated ahead of rising superstars such as Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Noah Syndergard and Corey Seager'

 

Man, what a list.

[Thrylos]

 

On ESPN site, there is an article about a player from each team having something to prove. From our team, its Buxton.

'Just a couple seasons ago, Buxton was the consensus top prospect in baseball, rated ahead of rising superstars such as Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Noah Syndergard and Corey Seager'

Man, what a list.

 

 

I love the use of the world "consensus" to describe 5 people's opinions...  And in 2015 half of them had them behind Bryant

[jimmer]

I love the use of the world "consensus" to describe 5 people's opinions... And in 2015 half of them had them behind Bryant

not sure that is important to the overall point.

 

But sure. If they wrote that he had been in the top two the last three years by BA,MLB and BP, it would have been accurate, but really not change the point which is, I believe, he really needs to prove he is the star so many thought he would be.

[Thrylos]

 

not sure that is important to the overall point.

But sure. If they wrote that he had been in the top two the last three years by BA,MLB and BP, it would have been accurate, but really not change the point which is, I believe, he really needs to prove he is the star so many thought he would be.

 

 

The problem I have is that he was on his age 22 season last season and this season only in his age 23 season.  Good 7-8 years from his prime.  Too young to have to prove anything.   Just lazy work IMHO.  They are players in the Twins who have to prove more (Gibson, Hughes, Vargas, even Dozier proving that 2016 was not a fluke.)   Pure lazy.

[jimmer]

The problem I have is that he was on his age 22 season last season and this season only in his age 23 season. Good 7-8 years from his prime. Too young to have to prove anything. Just lazy work IMHO. They are players in the Twins who have to prove more (Gibson, Hughes, Vargas, even Dozier proving that 2016 was not a fluke.) Pure lazy.

except none of those guys you listed for the Twins sat top 2 for 3 years straight years, and I'm not sure any of them have to prove anything, at least not nationally. Its pretty clear what type of players they are. From a national media/fan base point of view, who has high expectations of any of the players you listed besides Dozier who has been good for a few years now and has just been noticed/talked about nationally because of trade rumors?

 

Now, if this was written by a Twins beat writer writing for Twins fans looking at Twins fans expectations, maybe it is different. Maybe. But nationally, there are no expectations from Vargas. I imagine most baseball fans dont even know who he is. At this point, might be able to say the same thing about Gibson. And Hughes, Im not sure anyone but Twins fans has had an expectations of him since we got him.

 

Additionally, while Buxton is young, he is/was the hot shot prospect and he is older than Seager and Correa, only a month younger than Lindor and like 8 months younger than Thor. Those guys are already established. Whether some like it or not, being as highky ranked as Buxton has been creates serious expectations for some.

 

I also do not believe a baseball players' prime is in your 30s. Not even sure where that belief comes from.

[Jack Goin]

 

There is no such thing as "DFA Waivers."  Nor is there anything called "trade waivers."  DFA and waiver rules are the same year-round.  Trading rules change after August, but the waiver process is identical.

 

The reason to do a DFA instead of just putting someone on waivers is that when you DFA someone, they immediately come off your roster.  When you waive someone, they don't.  Most players get waived in August but keep right on playing for the same team and never get traded or cut.

 

When the DFA happens, the team gets 10 days to decide what to do (cut, trade, waive/reassign to minors, or put back onto the roster).  

There are Outright Waivers, Unconditional Release Waivers, and Trade Waivers. There used to be Optional Waivers but they eliminated those in the new CBA.

 

Waiver rules are not the same year around. Waivers are good for different periods of time depending on the time of the season. All three waiver types have very different uses.

 

You have to "clear" Trade Waivers in August to be traded to any team. You can make a trade with the team that claimed the player.

 

Trade Waivers are revocable. Outright and UR waivers are not. 

 

Designating a player for assignment (DFA) now gives you 7 days to assign a player's contract (trade, outright, release).

[USAFChief]

 

There are Outright Waivers, Unconditional Release Waivers, and Trade Waivers. There used to be Optional Waivers but they eliminated those in the new CBA.

 

Waiver rules are not the same year around. Waivers are good for different periods of time depending on the time of the season. All three waiver types have very different uses.

 

You have to "clear" Trade Waivers in August to be traded to any team. You can make a trade with the team that claimed the player.

 

Trade Waivers are revocable. Outright and UR waivers are not. 

 

Designating a player for assignment (DFA) now gives you 7 days to assign a player's contract (trade, outright, release).

Thanks Jack.