Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[King]

 

So you view him as equivalent to De Leon?

I'd prefer De Leon, but it's not that much of a stretch. Stewart is (only) ~10months older, and if you told me Stewart would have a better career, I wouldn't be all that surprised. People are underestimating how good Stewart actually is.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Is Brock Stewart Aaron Nola to Jose De Leon's Kohl Stewart?

[Oxtung]

I'd prefer De Leon, but it's not that much of a stretch. Stewart is (only) ~10months older, and if you told me Stewart would have a better career, I wouldn't be all that surprised. People are underestimating how good Stewart actually is.

I wouldn't be surprised if Stewart had the better career either though that's mostly because I think there are serious questions if De Leon can stay healthy with a starters work load. May be a dodger fan can help answer a question: have the dodgers been limiting his innings or is his lack of workload every year simply because of injuries?

 

Most highly touted pitchers never reach their full potential, or at least take many years to get there (so you might only get a year or two before the reach FA). That's not to say they can't be good solid pitchers though.

 

I guess I'm just trying to say I view De Leon as a mid-rotation starter for the next several years with the potential to hopefully be more one day and I all the information I have hints that Stewart is closer to a 4/5 with a chance of becoming a mid-rotation pitcher someday.

[Vanimal46]

From today's prospects chat:

Jimmy the Twins fan

12:16 Whats the chances we see Burdi or Chargois closing games for the Twins at some point this season? Who has the better shot?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:17 I'd say they're decent. Burdi has better stuff but probably less a chance to do it because he's had health issues. I know Chargois has too, but Burdi's are just more recent/current.

[Mike Sixel]

12:15
YOYOma: assuming twins hold onto dozier with plans to trade him at deadline, and multiple contending teams have needs now at 2b, does he still return better than what dodgers are offering right now at de leon plus?

 

 

12:15
Dave Cameron: No.

 

 

Buck: If the Twins can’t convince the Dodgers to include more pieces in a Dozier- De Leon deal, do you think they might be willing to build a trade around Verdugo instead? Could something like Verdugo, Calhoun, Buehler and Brock Stewart get it done?

 

12:21
Dave Cameron: That is way, way too much.

[Mike Sixel]

12:40
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What kinds of players’ values go up/down now vs at the trade deadline?

 

12:41
Dave Cameron: Guys coming off career years who will use 25% of their pre-FA service time remaining, like Dozier, will almost certainly see their value go do down. Guys with unproven track records, health questions, or inconsistent performances (think Rich Hill) can have their values go up a lot.

 

12:58
Ben: Based on current personnel and trajectory, which is the last franchise to return to relevance: Reds, Padres, D-Backs, or Twins?

 

12:58
Dave Cameron: The Padres are so far away. So far.

[Oxtung]

12:40

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What kinds of players’ values go up/down now vs at the trade deadline?

 

12:41

Dave Cameron: Guys coming off career years who will use 25% of their pre-FA service time remaining, like Dozier, will almost certainly see their value go do down. Guys with unproven track records, health questions, or inconsistent performances (think Rich Hill) can have their values go up a lot.

Isn't Dozier the definition of inconsistent though? Why would he not benefit from a strong start to his season just as other players have?

 

I think people are overemphasizing his value due to his years left on his contract. IMO clubs are more interested in getting a good player than one signed long term, especially as that player reaches his 30s. That goes doubly at the trade deadline.

 

That said, right now Doziers return is more about only one team bidding and less about value; if there is still only 1 suitor at the deadline then the return likely won't change much either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think people are overemphasizing his value due to his years left on his contract. IMO clubs are more interested in getting a good player than one signed long term, especially as that player reaches his 30s. That goes doubly at the trade deadline.

Compare the returns on the David Price trades versus the Chris Sale trade. Years of control are pretty darn important.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Isn't Dozier the definition of inconsistent though? Why would he not benefit from a strong start to his season just as other players have?

I think people are overemphasizing his value due to his years left on his contract. IMO clubs are more interested in getting a good player than one signed long term, especially as that player reaches his 30s. That goes doubly at the trade deadline.

That said, right now Doziers return is more about only one team bidding and less about value; if there is still only 1 suitor at the deadline then the return likely won't change much either.

 

If he's the definition of inconsistent and teams know that, wouldn't a strong start actually weaken his value?  (Out of the belief that he'd revert at any time)

 

Position players haven't yielded a big return at the deadline since...Texeira?  Maybe Beltran?  

 

I don't think anyone arguing "just wait for the deadline" has actually looked at the in-season trade history of the last decade.  It isn't our friend.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think anyone arguing "just wait for the deadline" has actually looked at the in-season trade history of the last decade.  It isn't our friend.

No, it's not. For Dozier to maintain his current value, he needs to go into the break with an .800 OPS. If he's to exceed his current value, he needs to maintain his 2016 .850+ OPS.

 

I think that's a pretty bad bet unless the Dodgers are being completely unreasonable (which isn't out of the question given Friedman, who may not quite be in the mindset of a "spend all the moneys!!!1" franchise).

 

Well, the .800 OPS may not be a terrible bet.

 

But I sure as **** wouldn't bet on the .850+ OPS.

[Oxtung]

If he's the definition of inconsistent and teams know that, wouldn't a strong start actually weaken his value?  (Out of the belief that he'd revert at any time)

 

Position players haven't yielded a big return at the deadline since...Texeira?  Maybe Beltran?  

 

I don't think anyone arguing "just wait for the deadline" has actually looked at the in-season trade history of the last decade.  It isn't our friend.

If that we're true than the corralary is that his peak value was last July when he had been ice cold. Since that is clearly not true...

 

I'm perfectly comfortable keeping Dozier and revisiting this 12 months from now.

[Oxtung]

Compare the returns on the David Price trades versus the Chris Sale trade. Years of control are pretty darn important.

Those deals look very similar to me. A headliner (Smyly/Moncada), a legit big upside guy but with serious questions (Franklin/Kopech), and an Aball flier (Adames /Basabe).

 

Perhaps there is slightly more upside for the Red Sox but the Rays took the higher floor with MLB ready players trying to extend their window of contention.

[The Wise One]

 

Those deals look very similar to me. A headliner (Smyly/Moncada), a legit big upside guy but with serious questions (Franklin/Kopech), and an Aball flier (Adames /Basabe).

Perhaps there is slightly more upside for the Red Sox but the Rays took the higher floor with MLB ready players trying to extend their window of contention.

Smyly <<<<<< Moncada as a headliner upside guy. 2.5 major league seasons for Smyly should have been enough to show he was at best a good starter but never going to be a headliner

[TheLeviathan]

 

If that we're true than the corralary is that his peak value was last July when he had been ice cold. Since that is clearly not true...

I'm perfectly comfortable keeping Dozier and revisiting this 12 months from now.

 

I think you're missing the point.  I think the last decade or so has shown us that for hitters their peak value is rarely in July.  

 

12 months from now you have Dozier with only one year of team control, which is a knock on his value.  He'd have to increase his production for what you claim to be true.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Those deals look very similar to me. A headliner (Smyly/Moncada), a legit big upside guy but with serious questions (Franklin/Kopech), and an Aball flier (Adames /Basabe).

Perhaps there is slightly more upside for the Red Sox but the Rays took the higher floor with MLB ready players trying to extend their window of contention.

They are not really similar at all.

 

I know prospect rankings and age aren't the be-all, end-all, but you don't have to subscribe much to them to see a stark difference between Moncada/Kopech and Smyly/Franklin circa 2014 in terms of value and potential.

 

If you really believe the Rays turned down a package led by arguably the #1 and #30 prospects in the game at the time to take the Smyly/Franklin led package, I don't know what to tell you (other than there are zero reports that suggest you are correct).

[Oxtung]

They are not really similar at all.

 

I know prospect rankings and age aren't the be-all, end-all, but you don't have to subscribe much to them to see a stark difference between Moncada/Kopech and Smyly/Franklin circa 2014 in terms of value and potential.

 

If you really believe the Rays turned down a package led by arguably the #1 and #30 prospects in the game at the time to take the Smyly/Franklin led package, I don't know what to tell you (other than there are zero reports that suggest you are correct).

I'm saying the Rays took a package with MLB players, i.e. Less risk and less upside, intentionally so they could try to continue their window of contention the following year. The cost of acquiring young players that have shown themselves to be MLB quality is very high. Moncada could turn out to be Altuve or he could be Delmon Young. There is also the matter of the premium you pay to acquire pitching versus a 2B.

[d-mac]

 

12:15
YOYOma: assuming twins hold onto dozier with plans to trade him at deadline, and multiple contending teams have needs now at 2b, does he still return better than what dodgers are offering right now at de leon plus?

 

 

12:15
Dave Cameron: No.

 

 

Buck: If the Twins can’t convince the Dodgers to include more pieces in a Dozier- De Leon deal, do you think they might be willing to build a trade around Verdugo instead? Could something like Verdugo, Calhoun, Buehler and Brock Stewart get it done?

 

12:21
Dave Cameron: That is way, way too much.

 

Honestly, based on 3rd party analysis it sounds like the Twins are the team that's being completely unreasonable with their demands. People are really over valuing Dozier. "But 42 homeruns!!11!1!"

[Oxtung]

I think you're missing the point. I think the last decade or so has shown us that for hitters their peak value is rarely in July.

 

12 months from now you have Dozier with only one year of team control, which is a knock on his value. He'd have to increase his production for what you claim to be true.

You and I disagree on how future control is valued. That's ok. IMO the contracts that shift a trade negotiation to any discernible extant are young cost controlled players and veterans that have guaranteed years into their decline years. Dozier is neither of those and as such his value is not greatly affected.

[Mike Sixel]

Foolsgold
12:13 Dozier for Jose Deleon sounds about right. Is Minn overplaying their hands?

Eno Sarris
12:13 I think they see LA as needing Dozier, and if they end up keeping Dozier and flipping him at the deadline, the deadline bounce might give them enough to overcome the missing 2/3 of a season that happened in between.

 

iron wolf
12:27 Eno: there is some talk that Matt Strahm won't be in the starting rotation for KC this year. Is that true, I have him stashed on my prospect list? It it is, can you recommend a sleeper starter prospect (all of the good ones are taken). Thx!
Eno Sarris
12:27 I really like Brock Stewart. Also, Adalberto Mejia should get a shot in Minny.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You and I disagree on how future control is valued. That's ok. IMO the contracts that shift a trade negotiation to any discernible extant are young cost controlled players and veterans that have guaranteed years into their decline years. Dozier is neither of those and as such his value is not greatly affected.

 

I would agree that those two examples are more valuable forms of team control than what Dozier represents, but that doesn't mean his future control is valueless.  You seem to be making that leap.  I would suggest cutting in half the team control one has over an under-priced asset is always going to diminish it's value and that's what is happening if we hold on to Dozier.

[nicksaviking]

 

Honestly, based on 3rd party analysis it sounds like the Twins are the team that's being completely unreasonable with their demands. People are really over valuing Dozier.

 

It could be, but I'd also wonder what these same people would be saying if pre Sale and Eaton trades the White Sox fans were asking for what they later got.

 

Chat

December 6, 2016

12:37

 

UnreasonalbeInsaneWhiteSoxFan: What kind of return can the White Sox get for Eaton? How about Giolito, Lopez and Dunning?!?!

 

Dave Cameron: Go die a painful death and take your lunacy with you.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm saying the Rays took a package with MLB players, i.e. Less risk and less upside, intentionally so they could try to continue their window of contention the following year. 

And I'm saying the Rays didn't have a Moncada/Kopech comparable "upside" package available to them, so it's not a viable excuse for the value difference.

[markos]

 

It could be, but I'd also wonder what these same people would be saying if pre Sale and Eaton trades the White Sox fans were asking for what they later got.

 

Chat

December 6, 2016

12:37

 

UnreasonalbeInsaneWhiteSoxFan: What kind of return can the White Sox get for Eaton? How about Giolito, Lopez and Dunning?!?!

 

Dave Cameron: Go die a painful death and take your lunacy with you.

This is an after-the-fact analysis, but this article walks through the logic that the Eaton deal was reasonable.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/comparing-the-dexter-fowler-and-adam-eaton-decisions/

Basically, it all depends on if you think of Giolito's future projection. If one still considers him a top-10 prospect, then it was an overpay. If one considers him more of a run-of-the-mill prospect, say somewhere in the 40-60 range (and there is fair amount of evidence that he is trending that way), then it wasn't.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You and I disagree on how future control is valued. That's ok. IMO the contracts that shift a trade negotiation to any discernible extant are young cost controlled players and veterans that have guaranteed years into their decline years. Dozier is neither of those and as such his value is not greatly affected.

Do you consider Eaton and Sale "young and cost controlled"?

 

If Dozier's not "young and cost controlled" then his value is going to take a hit compared to those guys, right?

 

If you think Dozier with 2 years left is not appreciably different in value than Dozier with 1 year left, couldn't that support the Dodgers position?  Seems like a lot of Twins fans here are demanding a premium based on the 2 years when you are arguing it doesn't matter much.  Then the timing of a trade is just a bet on performance, and if he doesn't come out of the gate hitting like the 2nd half of 2016, his value is going to drop from performance, even if it is mostly unaffected by remaining control.

 

How about Chapman vs Miller this past summer?  Miller returned more than Chapman (and even got on offer of Giolito), largely due to the extra 2 years of control, no?

[nicksaviking]

 

This is an after-the-fact analysis, but this article walks through the logic that the Eaton deal was reasonable.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/comparing-the-dexter-fowler-and-adam-eaton-decisions/

Basically, it all depends on if you think of Giolito's future projection. If one still considers him a top-10 prospect, then it was an overpay. If one considers him more of a run-of-the-mill prospect, say somewhere in the 40-60 range (and there is fair amount of evidence that he is trending that way), then it wasn't.

 

I get it and I tend to agree since the Nationals know more about Giolito than anyone else. However I'm going to guess if a Twins/Dodgers trade goes down, there will be the same write ups both in favor and against the trade for either team no matter who is included.

 

Basically, there will be people who will be writing retrospectives detailing all the warts of the Dodgers prospects and why it made sense to include them. 

[jimmer]

It could be, but I'd also wonder what these same people would be saying if pre Sale and Eaton trades the White Sox fans were asking for what they later got.

 

Chat

December 6, 2016

12:37

 

UnreasonalbeInsaneWhiteSoxFan: What kind of return can the White Sox get for Eaton? How about Giolito, Lopez and Dunning?!?!

 

Dave Cameron: Go die a painful death and take your lunacy with you.

Can you link that chat because Dave Cammeron does his Fangraphs chats on Wednesdays not Tuesday.I can't find this chat anywhere.

 

Ironically, at 12:37 on Dec 7, he was asked about De Leon and Calhoun for Dozier.

 

I do see an article from Dave on Dec 6 about how he nailed the Sale trade in July though.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike: Seems like the holdup on the Twins trading Dozier to the Dodgers is the isistance on getting 2 MLB-ready prospects from the Dodgers. Are the Dodgers being unreasonable by trying to hold on to both DeLeon and Stewart?

Klaw: I don’t think that’s an unfair ask for the Twins, but that would severely cut into the Dodgers’ starting pitching depth, and I think the result would reduce the Dodgers’ potential gains from adding Dozier.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike: Has the outlook on Berrios dimmed at all? Any clue on what we can attribute the control issues to?

 

Klaw: His fastball is flat and straight, and I think in the majors he tried to pitch away from contact more. I have to take a break for that phone call – it moved 1 to 2 to 1:30 – but I will return in maybe 45 minutes to finish the chat.

 

*neither of those Mike's is me.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mike: Seems like the holdup on the Twins trading Dozier to the Dodgers is the isistance on getting 2 MLB-ready prospects from the Dodgers. Are the Dodgers being unreasonable by trying to hold on to both DeLeon and Stewart?

Klaw: I don’t think that’s an unfair ask for the Twins, but that would severely cut into the Dodgers’ starting pitching depth, and I think the result would reduce the Dodgers’ potential gains from adding Dozier.

One of the most reasonable takes I've heard on the situation thus far.

 

It's a fair argument from both sides, which is probably why we haven't seen a deal announced yet.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Mike: Has the outlook on Berrios dimmed at all? Any clue on what we can attribute the control issues to?

 

Klaw: His fastball is flat and straight, and I think in the majors he tried to pitch away from contact more. I have to take a break for that phone call – it moved 1 to 2 to 1:30 – but I will return in maybe 45 minutes to finish the chat.

 

*neither of those Mike's is me.....

 

Plausible deniability.