Duffey v. Nolasco

[DJL44]

Using Tommy Milone 5th breaks up Nolasco and Santana who have the most similar pitching styles among the RHP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. If Duffy would have pitched like he did late last summer, in my opinion, he'd be in the rotation.

That's hardly the same thing as "his spot to lose."  Tyler Duffey in 2015 was by far the Twins best starter in terms of run prevention.  Yeah, kid, just do that again this spring, and you'll be fine.

 

 

As far as the 'uninspiring' group of relievers, Tonkin is out of options, freeing up another spot gives them the chance to kick the can down the road 6 weeks, gives Tonkin a true chance to succeed - or get cut. It gives the next group of relievers, starting with Burdi, a chance to compete, to prove with their performance "pick me, pick me".

 

They've had years to evaluate Tonkin, kicking the can down the road another 6 weeks is worth very little now (especially if you think there is even a can to be kicked).  Burdi, Chargois, and Reed did not have any real chance to compete this spring -- 3-4 innings each, against an average of AA competition or worse.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Using Tommy Milone 5th breaks up Nolasco and Santana who have the most similar pitching styles among the RHP.

Sure.  And another data point suggesting Nolasco/Duffey starting on the same days this spring, between Gibson and Milone, was no accident.

[Platoon]

Duffey was never pitching against Nolasco, he was competing against Nolascos Contract!

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's hardly the same thing as "his spot to lose."  Tyler Duffey in 2015 was by far the Twins best starter in terms of run prevention.  Yeah, kid, just do that again this spring, and you'll be fine.

I believe Duffey had the advantage going into ST, though it can certainly be debated how much of an advantage.

 

But he's been various shades of terrible this March. We can question how much stock the Twins should put into spring performances but Tyler has looked pretty bad all month. He's not missing bats, he's walking a few too many guys, and he hasn't been fooling anyone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have no problem with not giving Duffey a rotation spot.  Just pointing out that contrary to what Paul Molitor said, it did not take anything "fairly significant" to keep Duffey out of the rotation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have no problem with not giving Duffey a rotation spot.  Just pointing out that contrary to what Paul Molitor said, it did not take anything "fairly significant" to keep Duffey out of the rotation.

No, he's just been kinda bad in a very SSS. I would probably hold him out of the rotation given my limited knowledge of the situation but it's far from a cut and dry.

 

Nolasco stepped up, Duffey didn't. Whether we should put much stock in Spring Training performance is an argument as old as Spring Training itself.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did Nolasco really step up, though?  Other than that post-Cuba trip game vs the Rays?  For what it's worth, Nolasco's "OppQual" mark at B-Ref is 8.1, while our other 4 RH starter candidates are all 8.7-8.9, probably thanks to that Rays game.

[nater79a]

Control issues by Duffey in the 4th. Two walks contribute to two runs.

 

Duffey's day is done.

 

Final line: 4 IP, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

[Jham]

Do we know they're going with Nolasco?  If it were me, I'd go Nolasco based on spring performance/ career track record/ optimistic peripherals/ contract/ giving the cry baby what he wants until I can figure out what to do with him.  However, I get the feeling that Molitor doesn't want Nolasco in the rotation.  He had enough to send Duffey down before, but has stuck up for him when he's been hit saying he's working on a change up, or minor leaguers get excited to face major leaguers etc.  His comments from earlier this spring seem to support this notion as well.  I would not be surprised if Duffey makes the rotation and Nolasco is sent to the pen or designated.

The Twins need not look further back than last year's Pelfrey situation to try to sell the Pen to Nolasco.  We're going to go through more than 5 starters this year.  He'll get his chance if he's a good team mate and performs out of the pen.  If he won't go to the pen, he can be designated for assignment and sent to AAA correct?  If he refused, he'd have to forfeit his contract, meaning he'd almost certainly accept the demotion into the pen as something temporary.  Or am I missing something other than having to release Tonkin if he doesn't somehow strain a forearm before the end of camp?

[nater79a]

 

I kinda missed it, but didn't catcher Murphy kinda miss the tag on Jaso at the plate?

 

In any case, maybe Duffey makes the team as long as Joyce doesn't.

 

Yep, from what I gather he missed the tag twice! Had a couple chances.  Oh well...

 

I guess we can assume Joyce "owns" Duffey now!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Did Nolasco really step up, though?  Other than that post-Cuba trip game vs the Rays?  For what it's worth, Nolasco's "OppQual" mark at B-Ref is 8.1, while our other 4 RH starter candidates are all 8.7-8.9, probably thanks to that Rays game.

I don't know if he has really stepped up but he has certainly missed far more bats than Duffey. Of course, take SSS Spring Training stats with a grain of salt.

[Squirrel]

 

I kinda missed it, but didn't catcher Murphy kinda miss the tag on Jaso at the plate?

 

In any case, maybe Duffey makes the team as long as Joyce doesn't.

No, he didn't ... not in my opinion.

[Thrylos]

 

 Of course, take SSS Spring Training stats with a grain of salt.

 

Which was about the sample size of both Nolasco and Duffey in 2015 as well...

[Squirrel]

 

Yep, from what I gather he missed the tag twice! Had a couple chances.  Oh well...

 

I guess we can assume Joyce "owns" Duffey now!

No, he didn't ... not in my opinion.

[Blackjack]

 

That's hardly the same thing as "his spot to lose."  Tyler Duffey in 2015 was by far the Twins best starter in terms of run prevention.  Yeah, kid, just do that again this spring, and you'll be fine.

 

 

 

They've had years to evaluate Tonkin, kicking the can down the road another 6 weeks is worth very little now (especially if you think there is even a can to be kicked).  Burdi, Chargois, and Reed did not have any real chance to compete this spring -- 3-4 innings each, against an average of AA competition or worse.

When Duffy looks in the mirror, he has no one to blame but himself.

 

Giving Tonkin a few weeks in a row might show that he is a capable, trade-able reliever.  We won't know until they give him a shot. Burdi and company will get their chance. They can go down and do a "Milone", be lights out, prove "I'm first", force the Twins to make a move.  Competition is good.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When Duffy looks in the mirror, he has no one to blame but himself.

 

Are you one of those folks that says this any time an athlete fails to succeed?

 

I don't even have a problem with Duffey and Nolasco being on uneven footing in this competition -- I just want folks to remember that the next time a player like Duffey gets widely labeled a virtual lock.

 

Giving Tonkin a few weeks in a row might show that he is a capable, trade-able reliever.  We won't know until they give him a shot. Burdi and company will get their chance. They can go down and do a "Milone", be lights out, prove "I'm first", force the Twins to make a move.  Competition is good.

 

We're not debating bullpen strategy on this thread -- just stating that the remaining candidates in camp for the last bullpen spot shouldn't be a factor in determining the winner of the rotation competition.  You inexplicably brought up Burdi and others even though they are no longer in camp.  Tonkin will not be "trade-able" in a few weeks any more than he is today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Which was about the sample size of both Nolasco and Duffey in 2015 as well...

True.

[DaveW]

 

 

Duffy has no one to blame but himself, the 5th starter position was his to lose -- and he lost it.

Spring Training stats are pointless, no he shouldn't have "lost it"

 

Let's look at the numbers that actually count: Major League regular season (and post season if the Twins ever get there) numbers:
 

Duffey: 3.10 ERA, 8.2 k/9, 2.1 BB/9, 3.24 FIP all as a starter.

No Duffey didn't "lose it" the Twins let Nolasco "steal it"

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think that, given the team we assembled on March 1, that is was a perfectly reasonable position to give the job to Nolasco, barring an incredible spring from either Duffey or May or an implosion/injury to Nolasco. Which is what the Twins did, and was probably their honest position the whole time, regardless of whether they could say so publicly.

[DocBauer]

Duffey vs Nolasco

 

That's like asking if I prefer steak over spam.

What's wrong with steak?

[ThejacKmp]

 

What's wrong with steak?

 

What's wrong with spam for that matter?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Absent something tangible (and one of two healthy pitchers being "more ready" at the start of March isn't tangible), I think they still line up these guys according to competitions and how they see them opening the season.  Starting pitchers are extreme creatures of habit, and they aren't going to want to mess with their schedules even in March without a good reason.

 

I posted earlier this spring that they basically lined them up to open Santana-Hughes/May-Gibson-Nolasco/Duffey-Milone.  That was no accident.  Probably the only way May was making the rotation was one of the top 3 being injured, as well as one of the last 3.  The only way Duffey was making it was if he excelled and/or Nolasco or Milone stunk up the joint.

 

I dunno, that's pretty big planning considering all that can effect games and schedules (rain even in FL, a guy needing a few days off because of soreness, another pitcher getting hurt and everyone moving around etc.)

 

It really feels like Duffey had a pretty close-to-guaranteed spot (quotes from Molly seem more concrete than the order in which guys pitched in short stints a month before the season) and shot himself in the foot with a terrible spring.

 

If it means that he can go back to AAA and develop that changeup, maybe it's a good thing in the end? Especially if Ricky is easier to replace than Duffey when Berrios is ready? I can't see Ricky blowing teams out of the water, it seems like the best we can ask for from him is league average pitching. If Berrios is hot, Ricky would be an easy candidate to replace. It also opens up another spot in the pen, assuming Duffey is in AAA like he should be if he's not gonna start.

[Jham]

 

I think that, given the team we assembled on March 1, that is was a perfectly reasonable position to give the job to Nolasco, barring an incredible spring from either Duffey or May or an implosion/injury to Nolasco. Which is what the Twins did, and was probably their honest position the whole time, regardless of whether they could say so publicly.

Just to clarify, you're ok with the ultimate decision to go with Nolasco if that's what's decided, but you disagree with them telling May/Duffey they are in the running?  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just to clarify, you're ok with the ultimate decision to go with Nolasco if that's what's decided, but you disagree with them telling May/Duffey they are in the running?

I don't really disagree with it, so much as caution others about reading too much into management's statements on such matters.

[bird]

 

What's wrong with spam for that matter?

 

Bad follow-through.

[bird]

I just can't get all worked up about the 5th starter decision, and the main reason is because the rotation will be a fluid thing.

 

I recall reading something a couple years ago, I believe from one of the FanGraphs guys (Sarro?). I'm going to get this wrong by a few unimportant digits, but here's some of what I think I recall:

 

1. The average team's rotation starting off a season remains intact for 36 games, or 22% of the entire season.

 

2. Teams have a 65% chance of having two of their original starters out at the same time, with the average DL time being about 60 days.

 

3. Teams have a 32% chance of losing three starters to injury over the course of a season, again with the average DL time being a couple months.

 

4. The average team give six starts in a season to their #8 starter.

 

So, I frankly don't care much if Duffey polishes up some things with Berrios, Meyer, and gang, in fact I like it. And one can always dream that some team struggling to find a #5 starter, let alone a #8 starter, will make a phone call to see if Ryan has a price in mind for Nolasco, or Milone... It's a huge luxury to have May, Duffey, Berrios, and perhaps others in the wings. This is a luxury shared only by Cleveland in the division.

[old nurse]

 

What's wrong with spam for that matter?

http://1w02o12eat3r32ua4r1svxoi.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/mahaloha-burger-teri-spam-burger.jpg

 

All depends on how creative you are

[old nurse]

 

 

I just can't get all worked up about the 5th starter decision, and the main reason is because the rotation will be a fluid thing.

 

I recall reading something a couple years ago, I believe from one of the FanGraphs guys (Sarro?). I'm going to get this wrong by a few unimportant digits, but here's some of what I think I recall:

 

1. The average team's rotation starting off a season remains intact for 36 games, or 22% of the entire season.

 

2. Teams have a 65% chance of having two of their original starters out at the same time, with the average DL time being about 60 days.

 

3. Teams have a 32% chance of losing three starters to injury over the course of a season, again with the average DL time being a couple months.

 

4. The average team give six starts in a season to their #8 starter.

 

So, I frankly don't care much if Duffey polishes up some things with Berrios, Meyer, and gang, in fact I like it. And one can always dream that some team struggling to find a #5 starter, let alone a #8 starter, will make a phone call to see if Ryan has a price in mind for Nolasco, or Milone... It's a huge luxury to have May, Duffey, Berrios, and perhaps others in the wings. This is a luxury shared only by Cleveland in the division.

Detroit, for when Verlander and Sanchez go down. 

    ROTATION
    1. J. Verlander
    2. J. Zimmermann
    3. A. Sanchez
    4. M. Pelfrey
    5. D. Norris*
    6. M. Boyd
    7. S. Greene

[Boom Boom]

Nolasco lining up to be the 4 starter right now doesn't mean anything. With two early off days the Twins might not even use a fifth starter for a week and a half.

 

Nolasco will probably stay in Ft. Myers to get some work in until then.