ST Roster Predictions

[DrNeau]

Based on all things, and after recent cuts, this seems to be the remaining list of players. Who do you think will make the club?  I put a bullet mark next to the players that are seemingly in the tightest roster battles. I've removed a few players who likely will not make the team (but noted at the bottom w/ explanations, should anyone debate the seemingly obvious cuts).

 

Pitchers
* Fernando Abad
* Nick Burdi
Tyler Duffey
Casey Fien
Kyle Gibson
J.R. Graham
Phil Hughes
Kevin Jepsen
Trevor May
Tommy Milone
* Ryan O'Rourke
Glen Perkins
Ryan Pressly
Ervin Santana 

Ricky Nolasco

 

Catchers
* John Hicks
* John Ryan Murphy
Kurt Suzuki

 

Infielders
Brian Dozier
Eduardo Escobar
Joe Mauer
Eduardo Nunez
Byung Ho Park
Trevor Plouffe
* Jorge Polanco 
* Danny Santana

 

Outfielders
* Oswaldo Arcia
* Byron Buxton
* Max Kepler
* Carlos Quentin
Eddie Rosario
Miguel Sano
* Ryan Sweeney

 

Notable Cuts:
P - Alex Meyer (Has not demonstrated ability to play at MLB level)
P - Tonkin (Has been unable to keep it together)
P - Berrios (Twins would be insane to start his clock immediately)
IF - Vargas (Has talent, but has not hit at all this spring)

[TNTwinsFan]

Abad, Santana, and Arcia all stay. Coin flip the Catchers. Outfield gets silly though...I would say Buck stays, but hasn't hit all that well but maybe has proven enough to stick (few more weeks left so plenty of time). Quentin stays only if he destroys the ball and I doubt he sticks it out in AAA. Kepler to AAA but then there's Sweeney. My guess is he stays as a veteran bench bat/4th OF but I think that puts the roster at 26...so hell...I don't know.

[DrNeau]

I guess this would be my crack at it:

 

Pitchers (12)
Nick Burdi
Tyler Duffey
Casey Fien
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Kevin Jepsen
Tommy Milone
Ricky Nolasco
Ryan O'Rourke
Glen Perkins
Ryan Pressly
Ervin Santana

 

Catchers (2)
John Ryan Murphy
Kurt Suzuki

 

Infield (6)
Brian Dozier
Eduardo Escobar
Joe Mauer
Eduardo Nunez
Byung Ho Park
Trevor Plouffe

 

Outfield (5)
Byron Buxton (will be interesting to see if he even makes it)
Carlos Quentin

Max Kepler (praying he comes north)
Eddie Rosario
Miguel Sano

 

Lost to Waivers:
Danny Santana
Oswaldo Arcia

J.R. Graham (unsure of options, but Burdi has him beat as of now, IMHO)

 

Minors:
Alex Meyer
Jorge Polanco (he's MLB-ready now)
Kennys Vargas
 

[Rosterman]

Ah, yes. The dreaded Nolasco question. And Arcia, Santana and Tonkin are on the bubble. Yet would I rather keep all three of them then, say, Quentin, Tovar and some other vet? Yes, I would rather keep guys that just MIGHT contribute in 2017 and beyond, giving them a bench chance to play themselves out of the organization and replacing them with future prospects rather than Aging vets or AAAA fodder.

[DocBauer]

Catcher: Interesting that Murphy seems to be performing the worst, though there is time left. Surely the Twins wouldn't trade for him and then start his year at Rochester would they?

 

Infield: We know the starters, Park has actually looked better than I expected. Nunez is solid and the coaches believe in Santana and want him to do well. His versatility and potential are huge pluses. Polanco needs to play everyour day right now, despite such a good looking bat.

 

Outfield: I realay wish there was room for Quentin and Sweeney. Past performance, current performance, I'd really like them on the bench as role players. But would they really let Ortiz go despite the slow start in ST? There is still potential. He's been working hard. His defense is sudden looking better. Will they really move on at this point? I just don't think so.

 

Bullpen: Perkins, Jepsen, May, Fien, Abad and O'Rourke. Two spots left. Pressly probably takes one. Tonkin has seemingly pitched himself off the team. And unlike Ortiz and Santana, I don't know that there's enough upside to warrant keeping him regardless. Further, the overall numbers depth here is significant. Lastly, I'm actually leaning to Graham at this point, though a vet like Kinsler could sneak in.

 

Rotation: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and Milone...all as expected.

 

Notice Nolasco missing? Maybe just my gut, but two poor and nondescript years, poor ST, agent comments, I just don't see a fit any way or any how. It's time to let him take his money and go bye bye for everyone's sake.

[Dr. Evil]

OUTFIELD - ROSARIO, KEPLER, BUXTON

3B SANO

SS ESCOBAR

2B DOZIER

1B MAUER

DH PARK

C MURPHY

BENCH - SANTANA, PLOUFFE, POLANCO, SUZUKI

[sane16]

Catcher: Interesting that Murphy seems to be performing the worst, though there is time left. Surely the Twins wouldn't trade for him and then start his year at Rochester would they?

 

Infield: We know the starters, Park has actually looked better than I expected. Nunez is solid and the coaches believe in Santana and want him to do well. His versatility and potential are huge pluses. Polanco needs to play everyour day right now, despite such a good looking bat.

 

Outfield: I realay wish there was room for Quentin and Sweeney. Past performance, current performance, I'd really like them on the bench as role players. But would they really let Ortiz go despite the slow start in ST? There is still potential. He's been working hard. His defense is sudden looking better. Will they really move on at this point? I just don't think so.

 

Bullpen: Perkins, Jepsen, May, Fien, Abad and O'Rourke. Two spots left. Pressly probably takes one. Tonkin has seemingly pitched himself off the team. And unlike Ortiz and Santana, I don't know that there's enough upside to warrant keeping him regardless. Further, the overall numbers depth here is significant. Lastly, I'm actually leaning to Graham at this point, though a vet like Kinsler could sneak in.

 

Rotation: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and Milone...all as expected.

 

Notice Nolasco missing? Maybe just my gut, but two poor and nondescript years, poor ST, agent comments, I just don't see a fit any way or any how. It's time to let him take his money and go bye bye for everyone's sake.

Ortiz=Arcia?

[jimmer]

 

Catcher: Interesting that Murphy seems to be performing the worst, though there is time left. Surely the Twins wouldn't trade for him and then start his year at Rochester would they?

Infield: We know the starters, Park has actually looked better than I expected. Nunez is solid and the coaches believe in Santana and want him to do well. His versatility and potential are huge pluses. Polanco needs to play everyour day right now, despite such a good looking bat.

Outfield: I realay wish there was room for Quentin and Sweeney. Past performance, current performance, I'd really like them on the bench as role players. But would they really let Ortiz go despite the slow start in ST? There is still potential. He's been working hard. His defense is sudden looking better. Will they really move on at this point? I just don't think so.

Bullpen: Perkins, Jepsen, May, Fien, Abad and O'Rourke. Two spots left. Pressly probably takes one. Tonkin has seemingly pitched himself off the team. And unlike Ortiz and Santana, I don't know that there's enough upside to warrant keeping him regardless. Further, the overall numbers depth here is significant. Lastly, I'm actually leaning to Graham at this point, though a vet like Kinsler could sneak in.

Rotation: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and Milone...all as expected.

Notice Nolasco missing? Maybe just my gut, but two poor and nondescript years, poor ST, agent comments, I just don't see a fit any way or any how. It's time to let him take his money and go bye bye for everyone's sake.

you keep saying Ortiz.  Who are you talking about?

[DocBauer]

Lol. Sorry...Arcia of course. My kids were talking to me while posting and I missed my tablets auto correct. Maybe I'll just call him Ozzie for now on. Lol

[SydneyTwinsFan]

I would be very surprised at this point if this is not the opening day roster:

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

Duffey

Milone

 

Perkins

Jepsen

May

Fien

Abad

Pressly

Nolasco

 

Dozier 2B

Rosario LF

Mauer 1B

Sano RF

Park DH

Plouffe 3B

Escobar SS

Suzuki C

Buxton CF

 

Murphy C

Nunez IF

Arcia OF/DH

Santana Ut

[JustinCB]

I would be very surprised at this point if this is not the opening day roster:

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

Duffey

Milone

 

Perkins

Jepsen

May

Fien

Abad

Pressly

Nolasco

 

Dozier 2B

Rosario LF

Mauer 1B

Sano RF

Park DH

Plouffe 3B

Escobar SS

Suzuki C

Buxton CF

 

Murphy C

Nunez IF

Arcia OF/DH

Santana Ut

I agree this is probably what they do. Stinks it isn't the best roster they could be going with.

[jimbo92107]

I like SydneyTwinsFan's roster except for a couple guys. I would DFA Nolasco and replace him with Nick Burdi. Then I'd send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Jorge Polanco.

 

Nolasco has nothing to offer as a reliever but crappy command and a lousy attitude, so bring on the kid with the flame-throwing arm. Santana just seems too high strung, and his bat has flailed too long. Polanco can hit, and he looks like a smart ballplayer. 

[Platoon]

I like SydneyTwinsFan's roster except for a couple guys. I would DFA Nolasco and replace him with Nick Burdi. Then I'd send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Jorge Polanco.

 

Nolasco has nothing to offer as a reliever but crappy command and a lousy attitude, so bring on the kid with the flame-throwing arm. Santana just seems too high strung, and his bat has flailed too long. Polanco can hit, and he looks like a smart ballplayer.

 

You can't send Santana to Rochester, he is out of options. I don't totally disagree with Polano. His only use is trade bait or injury fill in. Dozier isn't going anywhere. The last time the Twins ate salary was during the Hoover administration. Nolasco won't be cut. He might go to the pen with the infamous "your the first guy up" Pelfrey Promise, but that's about it. And he presents almost as many issues in the pen as on the SP staff! He is the millstone of the roster this year! Park has admittedly surprised me, maybe he will continue to. But the book ain't written on him yet.

[Blackjack]

 

I would be very surprised at this point if this is not the opening day roster:

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

Duffey

Milone

 

Perkins

Jepsen

May

Fien

Abad

Pressly

Nolasco

 

Dozier 2B

Rosario LF

Mauer 1B

Sano RF

Park DH

Plouffe 3B

Escobar SS

Suzuki C

Buxton CF

 

Murphy C

Nunez IF

Arcia OF/DH

Santana Ut

I agree, except on Pressly, because he still has options. I think Tonkin will get his spot and a very short leash. Arcia and Santana are also on very short leashes, I could see one or both of them gone by May 15.  But if Arcia rakes and Park fades I could see Park to AAA. Going to be interesting!!!

 

The wild card is Nolassco. If they start him in the hopes that they can trade him later, that sends Duffy to AAA and opens up another relief spot.  Not what I want to see but thats what I predict the Twins will do.

[ashbury]

you keep saying Ortiz.  Who are you talking about?

"He keeps using that name. I do not think it means what he thinks it means."

[ashbury]

I do not expect anyone to be lost on waivers. Guys like Arcia will not bring back a lot, but if the team has decided to expose them to other teams, they will work out a trade first, bringing back a middling prospect in return.  There's a need to clear out the chaff every year, and this year's chaff is at least intriguing for some other teams, I would think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I like SydneyTwinsFan's roster except for a couple guys. I would DFA Nolasco and replace him with Nick Burdi. Then I'd send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Jorge Polanco.

 

Nolasco has nothing to offer as a reliever but crappy command and a lousy attitude, so bring on the kid with the flame-throwing arm. Santana just seems too high strung, and his bat has flailed too long. Polanco can hit, and he looks like a smart ballplayer. 

I think there's a good chance to end up with Burdi on the roster in May or June but frankly, there's zero reason to cut Nolasco in March of 2016 (and certainly not for Burdi). Nolasco is going to play the role of mop-up man; the one pitcher on the roster nobody cares about. And he has modest starter upside in case things go to pieces.

 

He's a perfectly acceptable safety net in that role. Maybe he rebounds. Maybe he stinks and the Twins move on in June. Either situation is... *shrugs*

 

Again, he's the mop-up man.

 

Burdi and Nolasco are not interchangeable pieces on the roster. They're going to slot into vastly different roles that have little to no overlap.

 

What's more likely is that Tonkin or Fien stinks and Burdi gets the nod to take their place early in the season.

[DocBauer]

I agree this is probably what they do. Stinks it isn't the best roster they could be going with.

Just curious as to what you mean by this statement? With the exception of another RP in place of Nolasco, probably a lefty, I'm not sure...at this moment...if there is a better roster available.

[DocBauer]

I think there's a good chance to end up with Burdi on the roster in May or June but frankly, there's zero reason to cut Nolasco in March of 2016 (and certainly not for Burdi). Nolasco is going to play the role of mop-up man; the one pitcher on the roster nobody cares about. And he has modest starter upside in case things go to pieces.

 

He's a perfectly acceptable safety net in that role. Maybe he rebounds. Maybe he stinks and the Twins move on in June. Either situation is... *shrugs*

 

Again, he's the mop-up man.

 

Burdi and Nolasco are not interchangeable pieces on the roster. They're going to slot into vastly different roles that have little to no overlap.

 

What's more likely is that Tonkin or Fien stinks and Burdi gets the nod to take their place early in the season.

Grudgingly, I can not disagree with you.

 

But, I'm going to try to. Lol I think we all know teams, not just the Twins, hate to throw money away and admit to a mistake, but I have a feeling this is going to happen in regard to Nolasco. After the past two years, you hope for a healthy Nolasco to come in, compete, throw at least reasonably well, and be a team player who is looking for an opportunity to help the team, rebound his career, and earn his paycheck. While we aren't there to see and know everything that is taking place in a daily basis, this just look to be the case. He's not throwing well, we've already rumblings out of his camp that he will not go quietly to the bullpen, and he could end up being a distraction.

 

I feel the Twins will recognize this fact and do what is necessary to send him moving along.

[Vanimal46]

SydneyTwinsFan hit the nail right on the head. Since Pressly's taking Tonkin's spot in the bullpen, Tonkin will get DFA'd. That vacant spot on the 40 man will be reserved for Berrios. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I like to sort by "OppQual" at B-Ref to determine the likely roster.  That's showing you who's getting the first crack at playing time this spring against other team's A-listers, and thus who is probably on track to make the opening day roster.

 

Abad is pretty much locked in already as the LH RP, as I suspected since his signing.

 

Kintzler looks like a decent bet to make the club too, with Tonkin's odds looking long and Graham probably ticketed for AAA.

 

Burdi brings up the rear among RH RP, so I don't think he has much of a shot. He was and still is in the same boat as Chargois, Melotakis, Landa, etc., except since Burdi isn't on the 40-man roster yet, there is less risk of keeping him around camp longer (an injury in camp would land him on a minor league DL rather than the MLB DL, and thus not collect MLB service time).

 

On the position player side, I think the only question is around OF/DH -- Sweeney and Quentin are getting long looks.

[alarp33]

 

Kintzler looks like a decent bet to make the club too, with Tonkin's odds looking long and Graham probably ticketed for AAA.

 

 

 

I was thinking about this recently. The fact that Graham is hardly ever discussed as an option, and with all the young guys close to breaking through, makes it so mind blowing that the Twins wasted a roster spot on him all last season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

SydneyTwinsFan hit the nail right on the head. Since Pressly's taking Tonkin's spot in the bullpen, Tonkin will get DFA'd. That vacant spot on the 40 man will be reserved for Berrios. 

There is no vacant spot on the 40-man implied in SydneyTwinsFan's scenario -- Abad takes Tonkin's spot.

 

I also suspect his roster is mostly accurate, although I see Duffey in AAA, Nolasco in the rotation, and Kintzler added to the pen.  Might be further machinations to roster Sweeney and/or Quentin, likely at the expense of Buxton, Santana, and/or Arcia.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was thinking about this recently. The fact that Graham is hardly ever discussed as an option, and with all the young guys close to breaking through, makes it so mind blowing that the Twins wasted a roster spot on him all last season.

Well, to be fair, I don't think it's really about how much Graham could contribute today, I think it's just sticking to the plan for him all along, which was to option him after his Rule 5 restrictions were gone.  It does seem odd to stockpile such guys via Rule 5 as we have apparently done with Pressly and now Graham.  It's not bad to get such a guy out of Rule 5, of course, but middle relievers on a AAA-MLB shuttle aren't exactly a difficult thing to acquire otherwise.

 

Interestingly, Johan Santana made the club out of spring training in his second year here (2001), although he was optioned after a few weeks of limited mop-up duty.

[alarp33]

 

Well, to be fair, I don't think it's really about how much Graham could contribute today, I think it's just sticking to the plan for him all along, which was to option him after his Rule 5 restrictions were gone.  It does seem odd to stockpile such guys via Rule 5 as we have apparently done with Pressly and now Graham.  It's not bad to get such a guy out of Rule 5, of course, but middle relievers on a AAA-MLB shuttle aren't exactly a difficult thing to acquire otherwise.

 

Interestingly, Johan Santana made the club out of spring training in his second year here (2001), although he was optioned after a few weeks of limited mop-up duty.

 

See, I would say the plan along being option him to AAA this year makes it even WORSE.  He's going to be 27 next season. Meyer, Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, etc. I mean at what point is he even going to be a viable option in the bullpen?  

 

At least the plan was all along for Santana to start eventually.   

[Vanimal46]

 

There is no vacant spot on the 40-man implied in SydneyTwinsFan's scenario -- Abad takes Tonkin's spot.

 

I also suspect his roster is mostly accurate, although I see Duffey in AAA, Nolasco in the rotation, and Kintzler added to the pen.  Might be further machinations to roster Sweeney and/or Quentin, likely at the expense of Buxton, Santana, and/or Arcia.

Ah yep, you're right. Forgot Abad has to be added to the 40 man as well. Then I suppose in the scenario to add Berrios, either Dean or Mike Strong will be DFA'd, or to add Kintzler..

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

See, I would say the plan along being option him to AAA this year makes it even WORSE.  He's going to be 27 next season. Meyer, Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, etc. I mean at what point is he even going to be a viable option in the bullpen?  

 

At least the plan was all along for Santana to start eventually.   

I'm not sure exactly what the plan was for Santana, but obviously he was very young, it was an upside selection.

 

Any Rule 5 success seems very much "take what you can get" but yeah, it's hard to pat the Twins on the back too much for "good picks" in Pressly and Graham when they seem to be considered part of the same group of fungible relievers we already have in AAA, on MILB deals, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ah yep, you're right. Forgot Abad has to be added to the 40 man as well. Then I suppose in the scenario to add Berrios, either Dean or Mike Strong will be DFA'd, or to add Kintzler..

Good point on Kintzler needing a spot too, if he makes the team.  I'd guess that would be Strong's spot.  

 

At that point, we really would start losing 40-man flexibility, barring injury.  Dean is probably safe for a little while longer, considering he was just added this winter.  I could see them not wanting to lose Vargas in-season for nothing.  Arcia and Santana would probably only get dropped to add their direct replacements (Quentin and Sweeney at the moment).

 

Maybe O'Rourke would be next on the bubble list?  Otherwise, the roster will mostly be filled with guys who aren't easily cut (at least not by this front office).

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Agree with many of the comments above. In my scenario I was contemplating Tonkin being DFA'd and Abad taking his place on the 40-man.

I guess the path of least resistance would be to keep Tonkin and option Pressly, but at this point I just don't feel like Tonkin has earned the spot.

[JustinCB]

 

Just curious as to what you mean by this statement? With the exception of another RP in place of Nolasco, probably a lefty, I'm not sure...at this moment...if there is a better roster available.

 

It's not a huge deal.  Just the same thing they do every year being too conservative with the younger guys that annoys me at the beginning of every season.  I'd take Kepler off the bench over Arcia or Santana certainly, and I don't even know what business Nunez has on the roster at all.  I think they could have made reasonable improvements to the bullpen by experimenting a bit instead of say, going with the devils they do know in Fien, Pressly, or of course Nolasco like you mentioned.  They may well be delaying the clock on Berrios but I think we can agree he'd have a good chance at being the class of that rotation right now if given the chance and I hope we all get to see him up as soon as possible.  Other than that, it's fine and that offense even looks a little bit competitive to me!