ST Roster Predictions

[shs_59]

 

I guess this would be my crack at it:

 

Pitchers (12)
Nick Burdi
Tyler Duffey
Casey Fien
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Kevin Jepsen
Tommy Milone
Ricky Nolasco
Ryan O'Rourke
Glen Perkins
Ryan Pressly
Ervin Santana

 

Catchers (2)
John Ryan Murphy
Kurt Suzuki

 

Infield (6)
Brian Dozier
Eduardo Escobar
Joe Mauer
Eduardo Nunez
Byung Ho Park
Trevor Plouffe

 

Outfield (5)
Byron Buxton (will be interesting to see if he even makes it)
Carlos Quentin

Max Kepler (praying he comes north)
Eddie Rosario
Miguel Sano

 

Lost to Waivers:
Danny Santana
Oswaldo Arcia

J.R. Graham (unsure of options, but Burdi has him beat as of now, IMHO)

 

Minors:
Alex Meyer
Jorge Polanco (he's MLB-ready now)
Kennys Vargas
 

 

DUDE, no offense, but you're insane for forgetting Trevor May

 

Trevor May is on, NIck Burdi is in AA

 

And Plz Twins Take Santana, over Sweeney/ Quentin or even Buxton

 

YOu have to have a guy to play SS...... BECAUSE if Dozier or Plouffe Go Down for any leght of time Escobar is the fill-in

[Brock Beauchamp]

I keep seeing people say they want Nolasco off the roster...

 

Well, who do promote to replace him? Pat Dean?

 

Does that matter?

 

A bullpen isn't a group of seven guys who throw innings based on a hat draw. Guys have specified roles and the role slotted for Nolasco is not a role you'd give to Meyer, Burdi, or one of the other talented young arms. He's a three inning mop-up guy who might spot start in a pinch.

 

I get that people dislike Nolasco but, come on... Booting him off the roster just for the sake of booting him off the roster is bad asset management.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

DUDE, no offense, but you're insane for forgetting Trevor May

 

Trevor May is on, NIck Burdi is in AA

 

And Plz Twins Take Santana, over Sweeney/ Quentin or even Buxton

 

YOu have to have a guy to play SS...... BECAUSE if Dozier or Plouffe Go Down for any leght of time Escobar is the fill-in

The team still has Nunez to play Short. I don't think they'll carry Danny Santana if they have a roster crunch. He's just not hitting or fielding well in ST.

[DrNeau]

 

DUDE, no offense, but you're insane for forgetting Trevor May

 

Trevor May is on, NIck Burdi is in AA

 

Oh yeah... duh. 

 

Pitchers (12)
Trevor May
Tyler Duffey
Casey Fien
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Kevin Jepsen
Tommy Milone
Ricky Nolasco
Ryan O'Rourke
Glen Perkins
Ryan Pressly
Ervin Santana

Catchers (2)
John Ryan Murphy
Kurt Suzuki

Infield (6)
Brian Dozier
Eduardo Escobar
Joe Mauer
Eduardo Nunez
Byung Ho Park
Trevor Plouffe

Outfield (5)
Byron Buxton (will be interesting to see if he even makes it)
Carlos Quentin
Max Kepler (praying he comes north)
Eddie Rosario
Miguel Sano

 

Nunez is backup SS. 

[howieramone2]

 

See, I would say the plan along being option him to AAA this year makes it even WORSE.  He's going to be 27 next season. Meyer, Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, etc. I mean at what point is he even going to be a viable option in the bullpen?  

 

At least the plan was all along for Santana to start eventually.   

He's not going to become a pumpkin at 27. Depth and competition is a good thing. Our scouts found Pressly and Graham for $50,000 a piece. I don't see a downside.

[Dr. Evil]

It's not a huge deal. Just the same thing they do every year being too conservative with the younger guys that annoys me at the beginning of every season. I'd take Kepler off the bench over Arcia or Santana certainly, and I don't even know what business Nunez has on the roster at all. I think they could have made reasonable improvements to the bullpen by experimenting a bit instead of say, going with the devils they do know in Fien, Pressly, or of course Nolasco like you mentioned. They may well be delaying the clock on Berrios but I think we can agree he'd have a good chance at being the class of that rotation right now if given the chance and I hope we all get to see him up as soon as possible. Other than that, it's fine and that offense even looks a little bit competitive to me!

I would rather see Orourke, Burdi, Chargois round out our pen instead of rule 5ers, reclamation projects or guys we are afraid to DFA(see the past 4-5 years for examples). Arcia will make the team. He is not the most ready guy to help the team from opening day. Kepler is way more mature with his at bats. Plouffe will play 3b while our MVP will relocate to right field and play lesser defense than Kepler could. Add Nolasco to the list somewhere. If your a guy fighting to get to the majors I doubt you care about poor Ricky or asset management. If your a starting lineup guy, I doubt you care as much about asset management as you do surrounding yourself with the best possible guys from opening day.

 

Biggest problem facing the Twins is Ryan's aversion to either fishing or cutting bait on any level. Rather, he delays everything as long as possible while avoiding making decisive decisions.

[JustinCB]

Chargois has looked really polished and clearly has back end reliever type stuff. Imagine him coming in when Casey Fien blows his next 3 run lead. Burdi should have a spot based on pure entertainment value alone (does anybody still feel like they get entertained by the twins or are we all just self flagellating ourselves with this team??) They have the pieces for an exciting bullpen at the very least, let alone the sorry state of the bench they're going to break camp with I'm sure.

[alarp33]

 

He's not going to become a pumpkin at 27. Depth and competition is a good thing. Our scouts found Pressly and Graham for $50,000 a piece. I don't see a downside.

 

The downside is that his roster spot in 2015 could have been used by someone who actually contributed to the team, allowed for a 12 man pitching staff instead of 13, etc.  They were in the playoff hunt until the last weekend of the season...

 

Guys like him are a dime a dozen, and regularly available

[Otto von Ballpark]

Checking B-Ref this morning, it looks like my Opposition Quality ("OppQual") ranking theory produces a pretty likely roster now, with the exception of Park (who of course is playing under special circumstances this spring).

 

Relief Pitchers

May

Jepsen

Graham*

Kintzler

Fien

Perkins

Abad

 

* I'd still guess Pressly takes Graham's spot here, but Graham does still lead in the early "OppQual" rankings, and maybe the team would want Pressly to start at AAA as a sort of rehab after his injury shortened 2015?

 

Catchers

Suzuki

Murphy

 

Infielders

Santana

Escobar

Dozier

Plouffe

Nunez

 

Outfielders

Rosario

Arcia

Sano

Buxton

 

1B/DH

Mauer

Park**

 

** Like I said, Park actually trails a couple guys in OppQual but that's more a function of his extra early usage

 

And of course OppQual doesn't really matter for judging starting pitcher "opportunity" so I'll just pick a likely 5, bumping Duffey.

 

Starting Pitchers

Santana
Hughes
Gibson
Nolasco
Milone

 

Quentin and Sweeney are close behind too, I could see one of them taking Arcia's spot.  Santana's positional versatility probably preserves his spot, although they have given Rosario a few looks in CF lately, and Sweeney has some reps there too.  And "second backup infielder" probably isn't as vital given the starting group we have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe addressed elsewhere, but why did Duffey start a minor league game on Sunday?  Nolasco had a 60 pitch limit in the MLB game, and we spent 4 IP on relievers who were immediately sent to minor league camp after the game.  To me, that implies Duffey is probably the odd starter out right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, here is the current order of starters:

 

Santana / Berrios

Gibson

Hughes / May

Nolasco / Duffey

Milone

 

That looks like their preferred season-opening rotation, barring injury or trade.  The backup starters even seem arranged by preference and potential opportunity (ranking Duffey, May, and finally Berrios, with the top two likely needing replacement being Nolasco and Hughes).

 

Santana would be in line to start opening day on regular rest, and Gibson would start the home opener too, which seems like the kind of opportunity/reward the Twins would plan for those two.

[Vanimal46]

 

Maybe addressed elsewhere, but why did Duffey start a minor league game on Sunday?  Nolasco had a 60 pitch limit in the MLB game, and we spent 4 IP on relievers who were immediately sent to minor league camp after the game.  To me, that implies Duffey is probably the odd starter out right now.

If Duffey is the odd man out, that brings up an interesting dilemma. Does he immediately become the first call-up for ineffective play or injury? Or is Berrios still first in line when there is an opening?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Duffey is the odd man out, that brings up an interesting dilemma. Does he immediately become the first call-up for ineffective play or injury? Or is Berrios still first in line when there is an opening?

Unless Duffey scuffles in AAA, I'd guess he would be first in line.  I don't think the Twins are in that big of a rush to get Berrios up here.

[bluechipper]

Even with Duffey's rough start, I'm still predicting he gets the 5th spot. Hopefully he shows something better in his next couple outings to make this an easy decision, because Nolasco has been just as bad so far.

 

Also, the scenario being discussed above where Berrios is the second guy in line to be called up from AAA if Duffey starts down there is just simply not fun to think about.

[DrNeau]

I like to sort by "OppQual" at B-Ref to determine the likely roster. That's showing you who's getting the first crack at playing time this spring against other team's A-listers, and thus who is probably on track to make the opening day roster.

 

Thanks for sharing that; very useful.

[DrNeau]

Quentin is coming north.

[stringer bell]

No early opt-out for Quentin. I think they send him to Rochester. Sweeney has an opt-out and Santana hasn't hit at all. I think Danny''s injury might get worse if he doesn't start hitting.

[Riverbrian]

 

Quentin is coming north.

 

I think it would be crazy to release Arcia to hold on to Quentin out of Spring Training. 

 

The Twins have until June 1 to make a decision on Quentin. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think it would be crazy to release Arcia to hold on to Quentin out of Spring Training. 

 

The Twins have until June 1 to make a decision on Quentin. 

Yeah, I doubt he comes north but damn, he has looked good this spring.

 

Yeah, yeah, I know... Spring Training SSS and all that but the guy has done everything he can do to force himself onto the roster.

[Squirrel]

 

Yeah, I doubt he comes north but damn, he has looked good this spring.

 

Yeah, yeah, I know... Spring Training SSS and all that but the guy has done everything he can do to force himself onto the roster.

I hear the White Sox are looking for a 1B/DH type. Maybe we can trade them Quentin for Sale?

[Riverbrian]

Yeah, I doubt he comes north but damn, he has looked good this spring.

 

Yeah, yeah, I know... Spring Training SSS and all that but the guy has done everything he can do to force himself onto the roster.

I agree and it wasn't that long ago that Carlos was a baseball force with the Sox. It's not unreasonable to think he can't be a force again.

 

It would be nice if baseball actually worked... You know... Best player makes the club... But it doesn't.

 

Rules say that we can't keep Arcia in Rochester until he's 40. That is probably fair to Arcia but someone has to pay the price for that rule and it will be Carlos... For a couple of months at least.

[Riverbrian]

I hear the White Sox are looking for a 1B/DH type. Maybe we can trade them Quentin for Sale?

I bet Kahn took a couple of phone calls from other GM's to see if Sale needed to removed from the situation.