Berardino: Twins Interested in Bringing Back Cotts

[East Coast Twin]

Mike Berardino states that the Twins "definitely have interest" in bringing back Neal Cotts, citing an unnamed source with "direct knowledge."  Berardino also states that Brian Duensing hasn't heard from the Twins nor any other team.

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/11/30/twinsights-twins-interested-bringing-back-neal-cotts/

 

[stringer bell]

I think Cotts could be an asset on a one-year deal. He pitched okay for the Twins last year and IIRC pitched better in higher leverage situations.

[HitInAPinch]

Why not?  Twins need a LOOGY.  Cotts has done well in the role.  One year deal and see how it works out.  Brian Duensing:  the Twins have been reducing his innings for the past 2-3 years.  I think it's time to move on.

[beckmt]

I am hoping the Twins bring Cotts back on a 1 year deal.  It makes sence as he is decent and affordable (and probably will be unable to get a multiyear deal). 

I agree with the rest of the posters that it is time to move on from Duensing.  He is toast.

[Winston Smith]

I thought the idea was to improve the bullpen, so lets get better guys than we had last year.

[mikelink45]

Why?  Where are all those young arms.  Power arms are what we need, not old arms.

[sane09]

 

I thought the idea was to improve the bullpen, so lets get better guys than we had last year.

The bullpen can be improved by discarding the BAD RP's, rather than discarding ALL the RP's.

[sane09]

 

Why?  Where are all those young arms.  Power arms are what we need, not old arms.

Young arms and power arms are often prone to walking batters, until they become older arms.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think Cotts could be an asset on a one-year deal. He pitched okay for the Twins last year and IIRC pitched better in higher leverage situations.

 

You do recall correctly, batters were 0-for-9 with 1 sac fly off of Cotts in high-leverage situations in his time with the Twins, according to B-Ref:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=lever%7CHigh%20Lvrge%7CMIN%7C2015%7Cpitch%7CAB%7C

 

And good in "medium leverage" too.

 

Of course, those were very small samples, and he was pretty awful in low leverage (1.201 OPS against, even worse than Stauffer), so it's not clear how many of those medium/high leverage PA were of his own making!  The Brewers rarely used him in high leverage in 2015, and he was pretty bad in such situations for the 2014 Rangers.  And even in his outstanding 2013 for Texas, Cotts was notably better in medium and low leverage PA than high leverage PA.

 

Also, Cotts only had 1 K in those 10 high leverage PA with the Twins, about the same K% and effectiveness as Aaron Thompson in high leverage situations, and I don't believe anyone has suggested bringing back Thompson.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't get why so many posters resist spending up to ~$15 mil on another Jepsen-level bullpen arm in FA, but are eager to endorse dropping $3-4 mil on guys like Cotts and Thornton.

 

We've already witnessed how Jepsen-level guys, while not perfect, can help save a season and command a decent return at the July trade deadline, and how Cotts and Thorton level guys are mostly afterthoughts as August waiver claims.

 

Why lock that into a roster spot with that cash, and with little of the Jepsen-level upside?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Berardino also states that Brian Duensing hasn't heard from the Twins nor any other team.

 

No interest.  So why did we keep Duensing around all these years, with a guaranteed roster spot and multi-million dollar salaries?  Path of least resistance, I guess.  (And potential trade bait )

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, I just noticed that 2013 saw career-high K/9 marks from the following Twins relievers: Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Swarzak, and Thielbar, as well as Burton's Twins high (Burton did have one better mark with the Reds). Among starters, Pelfrey also had his career high K/9 that season.

 

As a team, we ranked last in MLB in reliever K/9 every season from 2011-2015 except 2013 when we "spiked" to 23rd, within 0.4 of the MLB reliever average.  In absolute terms, our 2013 team relief mark was our highest since 2006, a full strikeout or greater per 9 better than any other season mark since 2009.

 

Was there something in the water in 2013?

[Vanimal46]

Yeah I don't think bringing back Cotts was the vision we thought of for upgrading the bullpen. I'd prefer to find other alternatives in free agency. 

[Shane Wahl]

Honestly, Cotts is pretty good. They can keep him until they figure out that Rogers needs to move to the bullpen. I think that Ryan O'Rourke is a legit LOOGY, but an absolute LOOGY. O'Rourke is valuable for the playoffs, where he might pitch a total of 6-8 innings at most (if they advance far).

 

I worry way less about Cotts than Jepsen, to be perfectly clear. But even if I am wrong about Jepsen, I think that the only current truly trustworthy guys are Perkins and Pressly, and the latter's role is note really clear.

 

The real options, assuming Milone, Duensing and Fien are not back:

 

Perkins

Jepsen

Cotts

Pressly

Tonkin

Graham

Nolasco (best option out of the current starters to be a reliever other than May who belongs in the rotation)

O'Rourke

 

Burdi

Chargois

Reed

Darnell

Oliveros (?)

Rogers

Peterson

 

I am NOT one to be amenable to old bullpen arms, so take my mild endorsement of Cotts for what that means.

 

 

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

The bullpen can be improved by discarding the BAD RP's, rather than discarding ALL the RP's.

 

Sure, but it's pretty clear Cotts is a bad RP.  He'll be 36 before the season starts, had a 5.00 FIP (133rd out of 137 relievers) and 4.31 xFIP (118th out of 137) last year, to go with 2 straight years of declining K-rate, GB%, and velocity.  Add 2 years of increasing BB-rate, HR/FB%, and hard hit %, and Cotts looks like a disaster waiting to happen.  There's no guarantee that Meyer/Burdi/Reed et al would be better, but at least they have upside, where Cotts doesn't.

[gunnarthor]

Cotts would be perfectly fine in the pen.  

[Willihammer]

Cotts is not a reliever on any team with WS aspirations.

[tobi0040]

I find it funny that when Duensing was on our team, he was always the clincher on the proposed trades on TD

 

Now he is a free agent and has not heard from a single team.

 

I want the Twins to sign one guy as good or better than Jepsen.  If they sign one AND Cotts.  That is fine.  We just can't sit back and hope 4-5 young guys all step up, stay healthy, and round out the pen.  Last year the biggest issue was we needed 1-2 more talented pitchers.  Because of a talent issue and keeping Graham on the roster due to a rule 5 issue, everyone was playing the wrong role.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cotts would be perfectly fine in the pen.  

Re-signing Cotts would basically be a full endorsement of our post-August 20th 2015 bullpen.  Which was still a pretty mediocre bullpen (and whose bad luck in Perkins was probably counterbalanced by good luck with Jepsen).  Plan A to open 2016 should be better than that, no?

[Willihammer]

This is what the average reliever looked like in 2015 (min 20 IP). Cotts was below average in every respect except one - BB%.

[dxpavelka]

 

I thought the idea was to improve the bullpen, so lets get better guys than we had last year.

Great idea.  Why didn't anybody else  think of it.  Impracticle to replace everybody.  Need to bring back the guys you think can help, get rid of the ones you think can't help AND hope like hell you make the right calls.  If it was easy we'd all be running a team.

[rico7961]

Sign Soria and trade for Will Smith. That gives you a top 5 of RH (Soria, Jepsen, and May) LH (Perkins and Smith). Logan Darnell and Ryan Pressly could fill out your pen. That gives you a REALLY good pen with 3 lefties and 4 righties being able to mix and match in the late innings, with more than 1 closer option available. Only really adding Soria (6-7M) and Smith (1M) to the payroll. Might have to put May in the rotation and Nolasco in the pen, which weakens your pen, but Nolasco is gonna be someplace on the roster. Maybe replacing Darnell or Pressly, if you leave May in the pen.

[s1xthw1]

 

Honestly, Cotts is pretty good. They can keep him until they figure out that Rogers needs to move to the bullpen. I think that Ryan O'Rourke is a legit LOOGY, but an absolute LOOGY. O'Rourke is valuable for the playoffs, where he might pitch a total of 6-8 innings at most (if they advance far).

 

I worry way less about Cotts than Jepsen, to be perfectly clear. But even if I am wrong about Jepsen, I think that the only current truly trustworthy guys are Perkins and Pressly, and the latter's role is note really clear.

 

The real options, assuming Milone, Duensing and Fien are not back:

 

Perkins

Jepsen

Cotts

Pressly

Tonkin

Graham

Nolasco (best option out of the current starters to be a reliever other than May who belongs in the rotation)

O'Rourke

 

Burdi

Chargois

Reed

Darnell

Oliveros (?)

Rogers

Peterson

 

I am NOT one to be amenable to old bullpen arms, so take my mild endorsement of Cotts for what that means.

Sorry.  In what world is Pressly more trustworthy than Jepsen???  []

[Shaitan]

 

I don't get why so many posters resist spending up to ~$15 mil on another Jepsen-level bullpen arm in FA, but are eager to endorse dropping $3-4 mil on guys like Cotts and Thornton.

 

We've already witnessed how Jepsen-level guys, while not perfect, can help save a season and command a decent return at the July trade deadline, and how Cotts and Thorton level guys are mostly afterthoughts as August waiver claims.

 

Why lock that into a roster spot with that cash, and with little of the Jepsen-level upside?

 

I see Cotts as more of a $1.5 mil reliever. He came for virtually nothing, which while he performed well doesn't suggest he'll get much of a salary. (I have no idea what he made last year.)

 

PS Did the Twins ever announce a PTBNL or anything for him or was it just cash?

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I see Cotts as more of a $1.5 mil reliever. He came for virtually nothing, which while he performed well doesn't suggest he'll get much of a salary. (I have no idea what he made last year.)

Cotts signed for 1 year, $3 mil last winter.  MLBTR previously said "presumably, he would require a similar commitment to re-sign for 2016."  The TD handbook pegged Thornton at $4 mil.

 

But again, it's not about the money, it's more about locking in mediocrity in the pen.  We don't need a Duensing replacement, having a bunch of pitchers of Duensing quality, or Fien quality, is what got us into this mess in the first place.  We need better pitchers than that, guys who have a real shot at stepping up when needed (Jepsen) as some guys tend to falter or get hurt (Perkins), some guys get pulled away to other assignments (May), and prospects rarely arrive exactly as hoped (see Twins bullpen prospects in 2015).

[DocBauer]

For the purposes of this post, I am focusing ONLY on the PORT side of things.

 

The Twins need options here. I LOVE the Runzler signing. No risk at all, and potentially good to great reward! It's the kind of move someone makes every season, it pays off  big, and you smack your head and say; "why couldn't MY team find a guy like that?" Hopefully, Runzler IS that guy. But you can't bank on it.

 

Williams, if we don't lose him in rule 5, and eventually Melotakis, are possible hard throwing lefties for the future. Maybe near future. But they are not there yet. I believe if you audition Rogers, Dean, Darnell, O'Rourke and others, you are bound to find one guy you can march out to the mound and expect decent things to happen. I also believe the depth of the rotation could allow Milone to be a versatile swing man in the pen.

 

The whole point is, there isn't a whole lot you can bank on from the LH side going in to 2016 for the pen. There are pieces of a puzzle there, but we don't know the picture well enough yet to put it all together. Cotts shouldn't be overly expensive. He's experienced. In the volatile world of relievers, his numbers aren't bad. I don't think it would be a mistake to bring him back as another piece of the "to be assembled" puzzle.
 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cotts shouldn't be overly expensive. He's experienced. In the volatile world of relievers, his numbers aren't bad. I don't think it would be a mistake to bring him back as another piece of the "to be assembled" puzzle.

 

 

Sipp and Bastardo were predicted by MLBTR to receive 3/12 and 3/15, respectively.  Why not grab one of them if there's not a whole lot you can bank on from that side?  More expensive than Cotts but not "overly" so, and "in the volatile world of relievers", their downside probably isn't that much different than Cotts' age 36 projection, with significantly higher upside.

 

If you think O'Rourke or Rogers is going to claim the job soon, fine, but that's the argument we heard about retaining Duensing too -- he was just a placeholder for better things.  Problem is, his replacements hardly got a chance in 2015 (Rogers, Dean, Darnell got no chance, and O'Rourke never really got a MLB chance as a LOOGY weapon).  If you're not going to aggressively promote and audition internal options, I can't get behind the placeholder strategy anymore.  One way or another, it's time to get good relievers already.

[Vanimal46]

 

Sipp and Bastardo were predicted by MLBTR to receive 3/12 and 3/15, respectively.  Why not grab one of them if there's not a whole lot you can bank on from that side?  More expensive than Cotts but not "overly" so, and "in the volatile world of relievers", their downside probably isn't that much different than Cotts' age 36 projection, with significantly higher upside.

 

If you think O'Rourke or Rogers is going to claim the job soon, fine, but that's the argument we heard about retaining Duensing too -- he was just a placeholder for better things.  Problem is, his replacements hardly got a chance in 2015 (Rogers, Dean, Darnell got no chance, and O'Rourke never really got a MLB chance as a LOOGY weapon).  If you're not going to aggressively promote and audition internal options, I can't get behind the placeholder strategy anymore.  One way or another, it's time to get good relievers already.

 

I'm with you 100% on not getting behind the placeholder strategy. The Twins are loyal to a fault with their veteran placeholders, and are always the last ones to let them go. Tim Stauffer last season is a prime example of that. No more, let's actually get some talented relievers. 

[DocBauer]

 

Sipp and Bastardo were predicted by MLBTR to receive 3/12 and 3/15, respectively.  Why not grab one of them if there's not a whole lot you can bank on from that side?  More expensive than Cotts but not "overly" so, and "in the volatile world of relievers", their downside probably isn't that much different than Cotts' age 36 projection, with significantly higher upside.

 

If you think O'Rourke or Rogers is going to claim the job soon, fine, but that's the argument we heard about retaining Duensing too -- he was just a placeholder for better things.  Problem is, his replacements hardly got a chance in 2015 (Rogers, Dean, Darnell got no chance, and O'Rourke never really got a MLB chance as a LOOGY weapon).  If you're not going to aggressively promote and audition internal options, I can't get behind the placeholder strategy anymore.  One way or another, it's time to get good relievers already.

I would prefer the Twins hold open auditions with their younger LH arms. In the long run, they would be better off, as well as less expensive.

 

The only problem I would have with Sipp, or anyone else, is that I think after the Twins..hopefully..address a power, impact RHRP, do we want to commit another 3 year deal elsewhere?  The bullpen needs to be impoved, to be sure. But there certainly are a number of talented young arms arriving soon, and I just don't want to get too wrapped up in long term deals for FA's. All the more reason to hope for Runzler, hold the auditions for the young lefties, and go get that ONE big arm.