Is this Ryan's Swan Song?

[Platoon]

I don't know what the Twins roster will look like when the smoke all clears. Ryan is quoted as saying he is not trading Plouffe, not getting rid of players, only adding, and starts out the odd season adding another 30 year old "lottery ticket". If he does not trade Plouffe, can't trade Mauer, and was clear he wanted Hunter to return, that seems the dealings of a GM who thinks he has a veteran team, missing just a couple pieces. They are not the doings of a GM with a loaded minor league system which should be coming to fruition. If you aren't going to trade a Plouffe or Dozier, that leaves only one area with which to improve the catching depth. Trading a pretty good young player or two. And unless he can get a really talented starting young catcher in return, it doesn't make sense. Maybe he will surprise, but so far his initial actions and comments to the media are more indicative of a man looking to make a splash quickly before he re-retires, than a man building for the long haul?

[gunnarthor]

Ryan is fine.  He's had tons of chances to make short term decisions over long term ones and always takes the longterm health of the club first.  (Buxton over 3 college pitchers, for example).  

 

He's made one move early in the offseason.  Since he's come back, he's restocked our system and let it develop.  Plouffe and Dozier are both good complementary pieces that can help the 2016 Twins win the AL Central.  They don't need to move either of them.  

[Danchat]

I'm excited about the Park bid and I'm not worried at all about Plouffe's status with the team. TR is just saying that they're going to keep everyone just so their trade value doesn't go down. He knows what he's doing. And this is coming from a not very big TR fan.

[Mike Sixel]

Other than trading Span and Revere...and helping them lose lots of games so they pick earlier, how has the GM re-stocked the farm? 

 

Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Gibson, Hicks, all were in the system before he came back, right?

[Winston Smith]

Looking at the Ryan record I just can't figure out where all the love comes from. Is he just that old sweat shirt/chair  you can't let go?

[TheLeviathan]

Regardless of anything he's done in the past.  The first 4-5 days of this offseason have me very pleasantly surprised.

 

I'm going to sit back and enjoy seeing what comes next, because this doesn't seem like our usual Terry.

[bird]

 

Other than trading Span and Revere...and helping them lose lots of games so they pick earlier, how has the GM re-stocked the farm? 

 

Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Gibson, Hicks, all were in the system before he came back, right?

 

Again, since Ryan played an extremely instrumental part in building the 60-person staff that's been involved with very aspect of the success of every one of the players you mentioned, you're absolutely right, Mr. Sixel.

 

Ryan hasn't done a thing except help them lose lots of games so they pick earlier. 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not sure if this is his swan song or not, but like Levi, I'm not complaining.  He's making it a very interesting offseason so far and I really cannot complain about anything he's done. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Other than trading Span and Revere...and helping them lose lots of games so they pick earlier, how has the GM re-stocked the farm? 

 

Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Gibson, Hicks, all were in the system before he came back, right?

Right, I forgot we don't give him credit for drafts and international signings b/c it's either something every GM would've done or it's something GMs shouldn't get credit for, depending on how you're feeling on the particular player.

 

I'm honestly baffled by your constant negativity, Mike.  At the beginning of the year, you were pretty harsh on Ryan and people like me who said the Twins had a .500-ish team were kool-aid drinkers.  Yet we were right.  For the last few years, it's been pretty clear that Ryan was rebuilding the team to be built around a new nucleus, somehow you failed to understand/see what was pretty obvious.  I guess  the new anti-Ryan focus will be that the team is winning on player's he didn't acquire?  This year, the Twins got at least 1 WAR from 19 players - 14 were acquired by Ryan. 

 

So to your irrelevant question, since Ryan's come back the only minor leaguers he's acquired through means not including the draft, international signing and rule v drafts have been May, Meyer, Sulibrun, Welker, Gilmartin, Pryor, Adam, Turban, Hernandez and Pineda.

[ckrolak]

I'm ready to move on from Ryan.  We need somebody new.  It's time.

[SwainZag]

I'm ready to move on from Ryan. We need somebody new. It's time.

Based on...

[HitInAPinch]

I like a GM who believes in building via the MiLB. 

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea, really, how much the scouts have or have not changed (or the rest of the FO) since Ryan came back. I don't. In reading hundreds and hundreds of posts on the interwebs, it is clear that the GM doesn't really make the picks. When reading comments from former FO people and GMs on line, they say you can really only judge a GM on wins and losses, and trades and FAs, not the draft. I tend to trust them over random people here, but again, YMMV.

 

As for last year, I think I predicted 75-78 wins. I have never used the phrase "kool aid drinkers" to describe anyone (not in the last 2 years, I don't think.....I may have earlier, and for that I have previously apologized).

 

As for my negativity.....I think more could have been done differently to speed up the process. You don't agree. I don't dislike you for that.....nor do I post about your posts being wrong/bad/evil. It really doesn't bother me that you feel the need to do that to me, however, if that makes you happy.

 

The entire site is a collection of second guessing and offering our thoughts on what we would do. I tend to post a lot here, but if someone bothered to count the positive posts vs negative ones, the positives would way outnumber the negative. Not even close. When I do disagree strongly, I probably post too often, but then, I view this site as a bunch of people sitting around talking about sports, not some deep think tank of seriousness.....

 

I have been quite harsh on Ryan. I don't think he did a good job the first couple years back. He himself, when retiring, said he didn't want the job anymore, and that that game had changed, and it wasn't for him anymore. I took him at his word.

 

That said, I've admitted many times that he has changed some....not enough for me yet, but maybe I'm just impatient. We'll find out in the next 2-3 years how much he goes for it or not.

[Vanimal46]

Well it's safe to say TR is not getting fired at this stage of his career. He will retire on his own terms whether we like it or not as fans. This off-season is starting off far more different than years past, so maybe he is trying to put the team in a good position for life after TR. 

He's 62, and I would imagine he wants to see the kids develop into quality MLB players. I predict he wants to be in the GM role until he's 65. 

[jimmer]

 

I have no idea, really, how much the scouts have or have not changed (or the rest of the FO) since Ryan came back. I don't. In reading hundreds and hundreds of posts on the interwebs, it is clear that the GM doesn't really make the picks. When reading comments from former FO people and GMs on line, they say you can really only judge a GM on wins and losses, and trades and FAs, not the draft. I tend to trust them over random people here, but again, YMMV.

As for last year, I think I predicted 75-78 wins. I have never used the phrase "kool aid drinkers" to describe anyone (not in the last 2 years, I don't think.....I may have earlier, and for that I have previously apologized).

As for my negativity.....I think more could have been done differently to speed up the process. You don't agree. I don't dislike you for that.....nor do I post about your posts being wrong/bad/evil. It really doesn't bother me that you feel the need to do that to me, however, if that makes you happy.

The entire site is a collection of second guessing and offering our thoughts on what we would do. I tend to post a lot here, but if someone bothered to count the positive posts vs negative ones, the positives would way outnumber the negative. Not even close. When I do disagree strongly, I probably post too often, but then, I view this site as a bunch of people sitting around talking about sports, not some deep think tank of seriousness.....

I have been quite harsh on Ryan. I don't think he did a good job the first couple years back. He himself, when retiring, said he didn't want the job anymore, and that that game had changed, and it wasn't for him anymore. I took him at his word.

That said, I've admitted many times that he has changed some....not enough for me yet, but maybe I'm just impatient. We'll find out in the next 2-3 years how much he goes for it or not.

I think since Ryan himself has said he pretty much keeps himself out of the draft, it's at least understandable to think he doesn't involve himself too much with the picks.

[Mike Sixel]

Well it's safe to say TR is not getting fired at this stage of his career. He will retire on his own terms whether we like it or not as fans. This off-season is starting off far more different than years past, so maybe he is trying to put the team in a good position for life after TR. 

 

He's 62, and I would imagine he wants to see the kids develop into quality MLB players. I predict he wants to be in the GM role until he's 65.

I mostly agree, but it could be 64 if they win it all.....but I think he has 2-3 more years in him. If it all falls right, he should be handing off a nice nucleus of players.

[jimmer]

 

Well it's safe to say TR is not getting fired at this stage of his career. He will retire on his own terms whether we like it or not as fans. This off-season is starting off far more different than years past, so maybe he is trying to put the team in a good position for life after TR. 

He's 62, and I would imagine he wants to see the kids develop into quality MLB players. I predict he wants to be in the GM role until he's 65. 

Or he'll wait until the next huge contract is deserved and retire before he has to be the one to do it.  

[Vanimal46]

 

Or he'll wait until the next huge contract is deserved and retire before he has to be the one to do it.  

 

That could be the case too. By 2017-2018, is that the time Sano's due for arbitration?

[jimmer]

 

I mostly agree, but it could be 64 if they win it all.....but I think he has 2-3 more years in him. If it all falls right, he should be handing off a nice nucleus of players.

Winning the W Series in two years is a pipe dream.  This team isn't poised to make that jump regardless of the season we just had.

[jimmer]

 

That could be the case too. By 2017-2018, is that the time Sano's due for arbitration?

I think 2018, but not sure.  IF Sano continues to hit like he does, that contract will need to come in his first 3-4 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Winning the W Series in two years is a pipe dream. This team isn't poised to make that jump regardless of the season we just had.

This team just came off an 83 win season largely fueled by cost-controlled players. Yeah, they were a bit lucky last year but there's a lot of talent on this team with more coming next season.

 

What happens if the Twins sign Wieters, a solid relief arm, and Berrios pitches to his ceiling? You don't think that's a legit contender? I do.

[gunnarthor]

 

What happens if the Twins sign Wieters, a solid relief arm, and Berrios pitches to his ceiling? You don't think that's a legit contender? I do.

Yeah, especially with the rest of the Central falling back a bit.  This should be our worst season for a while now.  

[jimmer]

 

This team just came off an 83 win season largely fueled by cost-controlled players. Yeah, they were a bit lucky last year but there's a lot of talent on this team with more coming next season.

What happens if the Twins sign Wieters, a solid relief arm, and Berrios pitches to his ceiling? You don't think that's a legit contender? I do.

This team won 83 games in spite of the following:

 

AL rankings:

 

Offense: 

15th in OBP
14th in wRC+
14th in position player WAR

yet 8th in runs.

 

Pitching:

9th in team FIP
8th in team pitching WAR
9th in rotation FIP
7th in rotation WAR

Defense:

 

12th in DRS
10th in UZR

 

That's slightly average in some spots to downright bad in others.  The Twins had fantastic sequencing, but this team was not, talent-wise, an 83 win team.  I loved what they did, and I loved the season, but this talent on this team makes it hard to believe it's repeatable, even with the additions you mention.  Hope I'm wrong. 

[jimmer]

To the original question posted by the OP in the tile,  I certainly hope it is.   Can't come soon enough, IMO.

[gunnarthor]

 

This team won 83 games in spite of the following:

 

AL rankings:

 

Offense: 

15th in OBP
14th in wRC+
14th in position player WAR

yet 8th in runs.

 

Pitching:

9th in team FIP
8th in team pitching WAR
9th in rotation FIP
7th in rotation WAR

Defense:

 

12th in DRS
10th in UZR

 

That's slightly average in some spots to downright bad in others.  The Twins had fantastic sequencing, but this team was not, talent-wise, an 83 win team.  I loved what they did, and I loved the season, but this talent on this team makes it hard to believe it's repeatable, even with the additions you mention.  Hope I'm wrong. 

I do think the team has to make a lot fewer outs, but that's pretty obvious.  I doubt that they can put up a .305 OBP again and score as many runs but I also think they should expect some improvement.  They gave nearly 2300 PA to 7 guys with a sub-.300 OBP last year, which they can't really do again and expect to be as lucky.  But of those guys, only Rosario and Suzuki may be starters out of ST.  It looks like the team is trying to upgrade at catcher and Rosario should be a bit better as part of natural progression (or, if he's not, the team has depth behind him with Kepler and Buxton in AAA).  Obviously, some of those PA will still go to bad hitters - another Shane Robinson type - but Hunter, Vargas and Santana amassed nearly 1000 of those PA and those PA should be mostly taken by Sano and Escobar this year.  

 

I'm not overly concerned about where they place in a few of these spots, even if you like the stat.  They are .06 away from being 6th in FIP, for example which is probably pretty much in the margin of error.  The rotation isn't great but they have enough arms to survive.

[USAFChief]

I do think the team has to make a lot fewer outs, but that's pretty obvious.

That's going to be tough.

 

I predict they make between 24 and 27 outs in the vast majority of their games, much like 2015.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I do think the team has to make a lot fewer outs, but that's pretty obvious. I doubt that they can put up a .305 OBP again and score as many runs but I also think they should expect some improvement. They gave nearly 2300 PA to 7 guys with a sub-.300 OBP last year, which they can't really do again and expect to be as lucky. But of those guys, only Rosario and Suzuki may be starters out of ST. It looks like the team is trying to upgrade at catcher and Rosario should be a bit better as part of natural progression (or, if he's not, the team has depth behind him with Kepler and Buxton in AAA). Obviously, some of those PA will still go to bad hitters - another Shane Robinson type - but Hunter, Vargas and Santana amassed nearly 1000 of those PA and those PA should be mostly taken by Sano and Escobar this year.

 

I'm not overly concerned about where they place in a few of these spots, even if you like the stat. They are .06 away from being 6th in FIP, for example which is probably pretty much in the margin of error. The rotation isn't great but they have enough arms to survive.

Yes, all of this. The Twins received a lot of half seasons from young players with potential and Duffey was the only guy who vastly surpassed expectations. One or two guys might regress but as a unit, improvement should happen in 2016.

 

And then there's Berrios. He could contribute nothing or he could be RoY.

 

There are reasons to be optimistic about this team and there are reasons to be concerned... But claiming a WS in 2-3 seasons is a pipe dream isn't a sound assessment of the franchise. It's a week into the offseason and the 2016 squad already looks better than their 2015 unit (essentially replacing Hunter with Park, an upside guy who should be able to match Hunter's meager overall line even if things go horribly wrong).

[TheLeviathan]

Teams ascend quickly all the time, our current champs went from 86 wins and out of the playoffs to a WC run to the WS and then a title.

 

Baseball is a funny game, as long as you make the dance at the end the "pipe dream" part becomes nothing but a crapshoot you're just about as likely to snag as the next team.

[beckmt]

Do not see anyone in the Twins organization Ryan would want to turn the keys over to.  That may change in a few years, but do not see him leaving anytime soon.

[jimmer]

 

Do not see anyone in the Twins organization Ryan would want to turn the keys over to.  That may change in a few years, but do not see him leaving anytime soon.

Well, the last time Ryan wanted to turn over the keys to someone it was Bill Smith.  Many seem to feel he was horrible .  So maybe we shouldn't worry about whether or not Ryan wants to turn the keys over to someone and just get someone from outside the organization, whether he meets Ryan's approval or not, and turn this ship in a different direction.