Article: Sano In The Outfield? Get Ready to Juggle

[Ted Schwerzler]

In 2015, the Minnesota Twins finally unleashed their hulking prospect from the Dominican Republic. Signed what seems like ages ago, the 22-year-old took the big leagues by storm. He swatted 18 homers in just 80 games, and pulverized plenty of pitchers. Heading into 2016 though, he's a man without a position, and his next stop could be in the outfield.Following Torii Hunter's farewell press conference, media touched base with both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor. In speaking with Molitor, we learned that the Twins have asked Sano to play some outfield during winter league play, and that option is being explored heading into 2016. With Trevor Plouffe slated to man the hot corner (barring a trade), Molitor is determined to get Sano into the lineup another way.

 

As things stand currently, the Twins' most logical outfield configuration to start the season is Oswaldo Arcia in left, Aaron Hicks in center, and Eddie Rosario in right. Byron Buxton seems destined to begin the year at Triple-A Rochester. So, putting Sano into the mix, the outfield likely becomes Sano, Hicks, and Rosario from left to right. Although that gets his bat into the lineup, it creates obstacles for Minnesota.

 

First and foremost, let's take into consideration that a 6'4" 260 pound human being would be out in left. Sano is a heck of an athlete, but he's played all of 83 innings in the field at the big league level (all coming in the infield). In fact, since the age of 17 when he debuted in the Twins organization, he's never played anything but third, first, or short. In each of those roles, he's been considered passable defensively at best, with a body best suited to be relatively stationary at first base. To say Sano would fail as a left fielder is probably short-sighted, but expecting much more than Oswaldo Arcia's -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) would be a long shot.

 

That brings us to the aforementioned Arcia. The Venezuelan slugger had nothing short of a wasted 2015. He was quickly demoted from the majors, and despite a home run tear over the summer, he failed to hit over the Mendoza Line at Triple-A Rochester. He's out of options, and there's no way he'd pass through waivers. Unless he's going to be given the keys to the designated hitter role (which could work), he's out in the cold. The Twins could definitely trade him this offseason (and they should be looking), but they'd be selling low.

 

Aside from the two big guys, the focus then needs to turn to the actual outfielders themselves. Aaron Hicks is really the only one that doesn't need mentioning in this situation. He's got a role going forward, and he profiles well despite the roster shuffles. However, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler now both have questions of their own.

 

Rosario burst onto the scene last season for the Twins and garnered some Rookie of the Year talk. Slashing .267/.289/.459 with 13 homers and 60 runs batted in, Rosario was an offensive asset. In the field though, he was a menace to the opposition. He posted a 10 DRS mark and contributed 16 outfield assists. So how do you reward him for that production? Honestly, I'd be looking to trade him (for the right price).

 

For everything Rosario does well defensively, we may just have seen him at his offensive best. The slash line provides some reason for concern. Getting on base at just a .289 clip is not good. Rosario drew just 15 walks in 2015, while striking out 118 times (roughly 25% of his at bats). Pitchers loved facing Rosario as they garnered swinging strikes at pitches outside of the zone a ridiculous 46% of the time. Really, the biggest number working to stave off Rosario's plate discipline issues was the fact that he batted .332 on balls in play.

 

If the Twins choose to keep Rosario going forward, he's going to have to be significantly better at the plate to be more than a defensive replacement. He's an asset, but in a crowded outfield situation, he may be the one to deal.

 

Then there's Kepler, the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year and Southern League MVP. Sure, there's reason to be skeptical that a .322/.416/.531 Double-A slash line translates to the big leagues, but this kid looks special. An adept center fielder, Kepler can play all three outfield positions. Probably most likely at the big league level is in left, and now he's looking at some newly introduced competition.

 

From a top down view, Minnesota currently has to include Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario and Oswaldo Arcia in the outfield. That doesn't take into consideration that Byron Buxton should be up quickly, Max Kepler needs a spot, and Miguel Sano seems to be transitioning there from the start. Also of note, the Twins have interest in bringing Shane Robinson back in 2016 (as a 5th outfielder, which would make a good bit of sense). So, that's seven outfielders for three spots.

 

Going forward, Molitor and the Twins know that they'll be including Buxton and Sano in their long-term plans. Hicks fits based on present value, perceived future value, and (likely) lack of trade value. That leaves Rosario, Arcia, and Kepler out in the cold to a certain extent. Should the Twins find a good trade partner this winter, I'd look to deal from those three players in that order. Kepler should be near untouchable. The Twins should entertain offers from other clubs for Arcia and Rosario.

 

At the end of the day, it appears that Sano is going to be playing in the field at all costs. A Trevor Plouffe trade could make that happen at third base, but regardless, the Twins have plenty of assets ready to blossom, and some of them should be used to advance the big league roster.

 

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[dougkoebernick]

I wish I knew how Molitor and Ryan ranked their outfielders as far as current and future value. I would probably have them ranked like this:

 

Buxton

Sano (only because I'm not sure if he'll end up there and if so if it will be for very long)

Kepler

Rosario

Hicks

Arcia

 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Beyond the more immediate reactions to the Park posting that are out there, I think there's a concern shared by some (including me) that any kind of roster crunch making one or more players look redundant hurts the Twins' trade position. At least it's some consolation that they can make room either by trading Plouffe or by trading an outfielder, and with different suitors for an OF and for a 3B, that might be some kind of leverage.

[SF Twins Fan]

I don't think this is the winter to start trading players away. There is no way to know which players are going to become assets. Arica has shown flashes in the past that he can at least hit for power, Hicks looks like he figured things out but half a season of solid play isn't really proof of anything. Rosario is great in the field and has some pop, but you don't know if he is going to figure out the strike zone. Kepler hasn't played above AA. I don't understand why so many people are in a hurry to start trading away the young players before you even know what you have in them.

 

I'd say go into next season with the majority of them and see who has taken the next step. Trade away players who aren't making progress at the trade deadline.

[Shane Wahl]

Well, sure, the Twins could go into the year with a loaded roster.

 

Hicks

Mauer

Sano (RF)

Park

Rosario

Dozier

Plouffe

Non-Suzuki Catcher

Escobar

 

With Arcia, Suzuki, Santana, and Vargas/Pinto

 

I prefer trading Plouffe though.

[ThejacKmp]

I love me some Rosario but he's the guy to trade. He reminds me of Ben Revere in that they do a few things really well but there are some gaping holes in their game which limit their future. (Caveat: Rosario is ridiculously young and could very well improve, though changing some of those things at the ML level would be tough). If the Twins could get an elite arm or a long-term solution at catcher, I'm down to make Rosario part of the package.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't think this is the winter to start trading players away. There is no way to know which players are going to become assets. Arica has shown flashes in the past that he can at least hit for power, Hicks looks like he figured things out but half a season of solid play isn't really proof of anything. Rosario is great in the field and has some pop, but you don't know if he is going to figure out the strike zone. Kepler hasn't played above AA. I don't understand why so many people are in a hurry to start trading away the young players before you even know what you have in them.

 

I'd say go into next season with the majority of them and see who has taken the next step. Trade away players who aren't making progress at the trade deadline.

 

This makes some sense but if those players don't take the step, they lose the trade value. A good franchise needs to be able to sell high on guys (e.g trading Revere - for the opposite, how they handled Willingham) and make good calls on who will develop. I agree with the original author that Hicks has very little trade value now so you should keep him. Buxton and Kepler (and Sano of course) have so much potential it would be hard to get enough back to feel comfortable about trading a potential star. So hold them.

 

To me it comes down to Plouffe and Rosario.* You have to shop both of those guys and see what the market holds for them, targeting young starting pitching prospects and a long-term solution at catcher. You can keep both but it gets awfully crowded. Shopping both means you'll get real offers since teams know that the Twins aren't in a "We have to get rid of Plouffe" position.

 

* Arcia can be thrown into the Plouffe-Rosario group but I see no issue in the Twins holding him into the season as a 4th OF. You'd be selling low if you trade him now - unless some team really likes him, there's almost no downside to seeing if he can get back on track. If you don't have a place for him and he rebounds, he'll be more valuable at the deadline than he is now.

[Dantes929]

Trading for the unknown in Park is really what botches things up.    You can't    have it both ways with Sano though.    You either say he is an asset defensively because of his athleticism or you say he is best suited for stationary 1st base.    I was impressed with how fast he got down the line and can imagine that what made him a short stop in the first place can translate into him being a fair outfielder but I don't really want him there unless he can be much better than Arcia.   Hicks, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler should be our mid and long range guys.   I loved having outfield defense and do not want to go backwards now when there is a chance to have it become elite.   I am reasonably sure the pitching staff would back me up on that assessment.

 

If you are saying Sano is a stationary defender then really his value isn't increased greatly by being out there on defense.   In that case just make him a DH until Mauer is done  (no, I don't think he is already done).  That is what makes the Park signing more baffling.  

[hybridbear]

Solution: Mauer to C, Plouffe/Sano 1B/3B, Arcia/Vargas/Pinto DH, Rosario/Hicks/Kepler/Buxton OF. Suzuki can play against LHP to let Mauer rest. Arcia can potentially play a few games in the OF on a day that you want more than 1 of the 3 options listed under DH in the lineup. Vargas can also play 1B on days that Sano or Plouffe have off.

 

I would focus on helping Sano improve his defense at 3B. I'd think that team defense would be better with Sano at 3B and Plouffe in the OF versus Sano in the OF & Plouffe at 3B.

[mikelink45]

The Twins have gluts of players in SP (not that they are great - just too many) and now the Outfield and DH and 1B.  This is what GMs are hired to fix and I am not sure that I have confidence that TR can do that.   It is nice to have talent, but we lose trade value for a player to sits on the bench instead of playing.  It is time to move Plouffe and Rosario.  We should have done that with Arcia when he had his good year, now we have lost value.  It is okay to package players for a player you want and to dump players (Nolasco) that you need to move on.

At some point the Mauer decision falls on TR too.  Perhaps he is the ideal bench player or maybe he should be moved to outfield.  Mauer is the sore at which we will pick for the next two years, but a sit down talk, a move of the no trade, a move to the bench - the Twins obligation is to have the best lineup - it is not the obligation to start the highest paid players.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I'm not sure why you believe Hicks has got a starting spot on the roster locked up. Rosario clearly has his weaknesses, but Hicks still has not put together a complete season.  He definitely showed signs of life, but outside of a hot 5 week stretch, he still has not reached the level of consistency needed day to day.  Rosario has many weaknesses, but is also very young.  To right him off as an offensive liability in the long run seems premature given his power and speed.  

 

In the end, the question you don't answer is who you trade Rosario for?  To me the team needs to listen, but not be too quick on pulling the trigger.   I see nothing wrong with the club heading into spring training with a true competition for the outfield spots.  The depth is something to behold and reminds me of the Dodgers. Having options is a great thing at this point.  I would not write off any of these players yet.

 

[tharasix]

 

Solution: Mauer to C

 

Never going to happen.  If that's how a solution starts, you need to go back to the drawing board.

[ashbury]

Never going to happen.  If that's how a solution starts, you need to go back to the drawing board.

In addition, Ryan himself throws cold water on this notion. In a video mentioned in a different thread, Ryan is quoted specifically as Mauer staying at first if the negotiations for Park are successful. Sano to RF, Park to DH, those are the moves.

 

http://video.startribune.com/ryan-if-twins-sign-korean-slugger-sano-would-move-to-outfield/344132022/

[bluechipper]

I love me some Rosario but he's the guy to trade. He reminds me of Ben Revere in that they do a few things really well but there are some gaping holes in their game which limit their future. (Caveat: Rosario is ridiculously young and could very well improve, though changing some of those things at the ML level would be tough). If the Twins could get an elite arm or a long-term solution at catcher, I'm down to make Rosario part of the package.

The only hole in Rosario's game is his plate discipline. He's average or better in every other aspect. BTW Revere is still a valuable player even with his limitations.

[dbminn]

I agree with others who wouldn't look to trade Rosario but would listen if the price is right. He's 24 years old. His main problem is plate discipline, which can be solved by patience and experience. I'll take the bet that we haven't seen his best. Yes, he could slump next year if he doesn't make adjustments. Long-term, he'll figure it out.

 

I'd prefer to trade Plouffe and/or Hicks as part of deals for a good C and RP. But I'd rather keep the current roster if Ryan can't find a reasonable deal during the winter. None of these players should be traded just to remove the perceived logjam.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2015 by dbminn

[SF Twins Fan]

 

This makes some sense but if those players don't take the step, they lose the trade value. A good franchise needs to be able to sell high on guys (e.g trading Revere - for the opposite, how they handled Willingham) and make good calls on who will develop. I agree with the original author that Hicks has very little trade value now so you should keep him. Buxton and Kepler (and Sano of course) have so much potential it would be hard to get enough back to feel comfortable about trading a potential star. So hold them.

 

To me it comes down to Plouffe and Rosario.* You have to shop both of those guys and see what the market holds for them, targeting young starting pitching prospects and a long-term solution at catcher. You can keep both but it gets awfully crowded. Shopping both means you'll get real offers since teams know that the Twins aren't in a "We have to get rid of Plouffe" position.

 

* Arcia can be thrown into the Plouffe-Rosario group but I see no issue in the Twins holding him into the season as a 4th OF. You'd be selling low if you trade him now - unless some team really likes him, there's almost no downside to seeing if he can get back on track. If you don't have a place for him and he rebounds, he'll be more valuable at the deadline than he is now.

I agree good franchises trade players when their values are high, but the Twins don't have that many proven OF's yet. Rosario scares me mainly because of his plate discipline (He has none), Hicks was good for three months after being really bad for 2 plus years, Sano isn't an outfielder, Arcia has no business even having a glove and was awful at the plate this past season. Kepler looks great in every aspect but again hasn't played above AA (His 10 plate appearances with the Twins don't count) and Buxton will and probably should start the season at AAA and be there for a month. When he was up he wasn't really squaring the ball up like everyone would like to see.  

 

So in all reality the Twins could have 6 outfields (Not including if they sign Robinson) but they could also have 0 real outfielders. What happens if the Twins trade Rosario this winter and Hicks reverts back to how he played the previous years.  Buxton and Kepler are going to start the season at AAA, which they should, and then you're left with Sano and Arcia in the outfield. That is a scary outfield and not a good scary outfield. 

[Mike Sixel]

Waiting to see who is bad, and then trading them.....that's not a good way to get much for them.

[Lefty]

I don't think Rosario should go anywhere.  He had a really good rookie season.  Hicks I think has really progressed and should be a starter somewhere.  Buxton could be in there soon enough.  That is an extremely fast outfield that can defend.  I think getting Sano accustomed to the OF is totally fine, if he can play the infield at all, he is probably athletic enough to do the OF.  We'll have plenty of range to cover for him as long as two of the other three can hold down a spot.  Might as well see if he's competent out there at some point.  My bet is that he'll still be our everyday DH.  Park hasn't even proven himself at the Single A level, why are we slating him in anywhere?

Plouffe needs to stay too.  He's been solid for the last couple years here and as soon as we ship him, we're looking for another option at 3B, and we all know how long we've been looking for that.  As much as I like Mauer, he's slugging our progression as a team to a halt.  I don't think he's a terrible liability, but as good of an athlete as he is, he should be the one moving around and trying on different gloves.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I agree good franchises trade players when their values are high, but the Twins don't have that many proven OF's yet. Rosario scares me mainly because of his plate discipline (He has none), Hicks was good for three months after being really bad for 2 plus years, Sano isn't an outfielder, Arcia has no business even having a glove and was awful at the plate this past season. Kepler looks great in every aspect but again hasn't played above AA (His 10 plate appearances with the Twins don't count) and Buxton will and probably should start the season at AAA and be there for a month. When he was up he wasn't really squaring the ball up like everyone would like to see.  

 

So in all reality the Twins could have 6 outfields (Not including if they sign Robinson) but they could also have 0 real outfielders. What happens if the Twins trade Rosario this winter and Hicks reverts back to how he played the previous years.  Buxton and Kepler are going to start the season at AAA, which they should, and then you're left with Sano and Arcia in the outfield. That is a scary outfield and not a good scary outfield. 

 

Agreed on the outfielders but there are still two complicating factors.

 

First of all, even if none of your six outfielders (and I’m not sure that there are six, this Sano to the OF business could be to help drive the market on Plouffe, but the point still remains with five) is proven, you can’t try them all out at the same time. You’re going to have to make some decisions at some point next year, even if you can delay it awhile by keeping Kepler and Buxton in the minors (I don’t know what Buxton has to prove in the minors, he has hit it and just needs everyday playing time to adjust to the majors). It would be better to use this surplus to fix other areas of need (top end starting pitching prospects, catcher) by making some smart choices about your outfielders before you see who bottoms out and they end up with no value. Prospects’ stock is high when they’re young and unproven and the Twins need to identify who they like long-term. Yeah there’s a risk of picking the wrong guy but you don’t win if you don’t play the game.

 

Secondly, Rosario’s track record indicates that there is a strong chance that last season’s efforts may represent a high point. He had a high BABIP, struck out a lot and chased pitches out of the zone at alarming rates. He may be another Ben Revere – a player who does some things incredibly well but who has some warts that keep him from being a complete player. The Twins sold high on him and even if Meyer never works out, that was a great trade.

 

I don’t think they should give Rosario away, I’m just saying that of their outfielders, Rosario is most likely to get a strong return while also being a good sell high guy. The deal needs to be right but it should be aggressively pursued.

 

As for the Twins outfield, I agree that it’s got nobody proven but that doesn’t worry me. Both Hicks and Buxton are capable of playing good enough CF D to make them above replacement players, even if they don’t hit. With both of them (or Kepler a few months in if one really bottoms out or gets hurt) you’ll have two ++ outfielders. It would not be too disastrous to pair those two with the abomination that is Arcia’s OF defense or Sano’s lack of range/experience. And if Kepler, Arcia and Hicks all play well, that is a scary good D.

 

Agree you don’t have to trade Rosario but some decisions need to be made at some point this season so if we find the right deal to sell high on Eddie, we should take it.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Waiting to see who is bad, and then trading them.....that's not a good way to get much for them.

Yes but making the wrong choice and trading away the prospect that ends up being a difference maker and keeping the one that turns out to be a 4th outfielder is even worse. If comes down to, do you trust TR to make the right choices and I'm not 100% sold on him.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes but making the wrong choice and trading away the prospect that ends up being a difference maker and keeping the one that turns out to be a 4th outfielder is even worse. If comes down to, do you trust TR to make the right choices and I'm not 100% sold on him.

You can't live in fear of making bad choices. Keeping them on the roster, and them all being bad, and then getting nothing is bad. Leaders have their positions to make hard choices......not sit back and see what happens.

[RegularJoe62]

 

I agree with the original author that Hicks has very little trade value now so you should keep him. Buxton and Kepler (and Sano of course) have so much potential it would be hard to get enough back to feel comfortable about trading a potential star.

This seems like commonplace thinking that just doesn't add up. You're saying we can't trade the prospects with no trade value, nor can we trade the prospect with trade value. If Hicks has no trade value, then he has no value, and we should unload him for whatever we can get. And if Buxton and Kepler have so much potential that they're untradeable, then who, exactly, is tradeable? Personally, I've heard far too much over the years about the amazing potential upside of prospects, few of whom turn out to be stars at the major league level. It wasn't that long ago that we were hearing that Kyle Gibson was untouchable because he was the second coming of Cy Young. 

[RegularJoe62]

 

Yes but making the wrong choice and trading away the prospect that ends up being a difference maker and keeping the one that turns out to be a 4th outfielder is even worse. If comes down to, do you trust TR to make the right choices and I'm not 100% sold on him.

I disagree. Paralyzing yourself over fear of making the wrong decision is worse. I've been hearing this for years. We can't trade so-and-so because he could be the next big thing. True, but he could also be the next middling nobody or the next guy that never makes it to the show. 

[brvama]

I feel the need to respond to those that are concerned about certain players losing trade value because of number or usage.

 

An asset does not lose value because one has several of them or they are not being utilized. They only way any asset loses value is if the market devalues them or that asset becomes defective. Now that doesn't mean others value the asset the same, but if there is the need or want by others there is a certain value established for it, called market value.

 

The difference between a commodity and a ball player is that the commodity has a standard to base a value whereas a players value is difficult to establish. It all boils down to whether other teams are willing to pay our price or we are willing accept theirs. Having so or so sit or having several similar players on one team has nothing to do with loss of value, it's the market that determines that, who needs what.

 

Let's suppose that one team has 3 available but equal ace pitchers,but there are only 15 aces in the league. The value of those 3 would be identical and would be also equal if one of those pitchers went to the BP for a period of time but maintained the skills of an ace.

 

The difference in trade value simply comes down to demand and supply, nothing else. Not one team's quantity or usage of said player(s).