Odds of Plouffe in 2016 being a Twin

[darin617]

I take it with the signing of Byung-ho Park that Trevor Plouffe will be gone once the winter meetings start. There is no way that Joe Mauer would ask for a change of scenery and agree to a trade. Sad part would be sending at least $40-50M in a deal and still  not get anything useful in return.

I would like to say as shocked as everyone else must be that the Twins won the bidding for Park it brings great sadness that Plouffe is a goner now. Still they Twins only have 30 days to make a deal or they get their money back so who knows what happens next. Still very concerned with the HUGE K numbers for Park in Korea.

[jsteve96]

I don't think the Twins would have Miguel moving to the OF in winter ball if Plouffe was going to be traded. Could be Hicks or Rosario..

[Dman]

Yeah Twins value their own players highly so I wouldn't be certain that Plouffe is gone just yet.  Plouffe still has power and can play good defense.  Twins would have to get something good to move him and I am not sure they can get what they feel he is worth.  If they don't trade Trevor this off season then most likely they will get nothing for him in the future.  The Twins do have enough prospects that that might not matter much anyway.  We'll see what they decide to do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I place the odds south of 25%.  I think Ryan likely has a good idea of what he can get for him and already has some framework that he can accept.  I like that idea.  I like Plouffe as well, but I think at this point, he helps the team more in a trade than he does staying. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I don't think the Twins would have Miguel moving to the OF in winter ball if Plouffe was going to be traded. Could be Hicks or Rosario..

As others have pointed out, Sano in the OF could just be keep some leverage to trade Plouffe, not because they really hope to have Sano play OF all year.  Of course, they could be hedging their bets, and actually plan to play Sano in the OF unless they get good value for Plouffe.

[Mike Sixel]

Less than 35%. So, I'd not bet a lot either way, frankly.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

While it might just be postering, Ryan seems pretty committed to putting the most proven and talented team he can on the field.  Plouffe was a solid defensive and offensive contributor, so I have to believe he is our opening day 3rd sacker.  

 

Today's signing sends a message to players like Vargas, Arcia and Buxton that only major league ready players will be on the 25 man coming out of spring training.   Looks like Ryan is done letting the young guys develop in the big leagues.

 

Frankly, Hicks and Rosario should not assume their spots on the roster are guaranteed. 

 

 

[bluechipper]

 

While it might just be postering, Ryan seems pretty committed to putting the most proven and talented team he can on the field.  Plouffe was a solid defensive and offensive contributor, so I have to believe he is our opening day 3rd sacker.  

 

Today's signing sends a message to players like Vargas, Arcia and Buxton that only major league ready players will be on the 25 man coming out of spring training.   Looks like Ryan is done letting the young guys develop in the big leagues.

 

Frankly, Hicks and Rosario should not assume their spots on the roster are guaranteed. 

I think Hicks is out of options, but I get what you're saying.

[h2oface]

"I’ll take any kind of power," Ryan said. "Left or right-handed. It doesn’t matter. Somebody can hit the ball over the fence, you’re going to have interest. Power is hard to find, especially in this place."

 

Ryan has shown in the past that players that swing for the fences have long been ostracized by the organization, and either have been traded, non-tendered, cut, or leave themselves. When he had power, they tried to change them (Ortiz et al). I don't get this interest at all. To me, it stinks of another Nishioka, and talent that will not translate to the show. It is like signing another 10 million dollar just below average starting pitcher.

 

Plouffe cannot get you an ace starting pitcher, or probably one of the best catchers, or Chapman for the pen. Anything else he is traded for adds redundancy to the team, and is not needed. Be it that Ryan is still making the trades, I have low hope for Plouffe and the Twins, and feel the odds are 2 to 1 he will be traded, and it will not go well. 

[Vanimal46]

I'll put the odds of Plouffe on this team at 20%. IMO the Sano to RF angle is just smoke and mirrors to show other teams that Plouffe could fit on the roster. Sano will be the starting 3B on opening day, and Plouffe will be dealt for a legitimate bullpen arm.

[gunnarthor]

I'll be lame and and say 50/50.  There's absolutely nothing wrong with keeping him.  He's a solid 3 WAR player who gives us good defense.  Sano might not be Rosario in the OF but he can probably be as good as Hunter was (and Arcia and Willingham were) if needed. 

 

The reality is, if we lose Plouffe, we can't completely replace him.  Sano's bat would be better but he's not as good defensively. Sano at a less important defensive postion, while still letting Park DH, makes just as much sense as moving Plouffe.  And that gives the Twins needed depth during the season.  If Buxton is hitting .400 in AAA and Hicks and Rosario are both playing well enough to prevent a demotion, well, that's a great problem to have.

[Platoon]

If I read the articles correctly Park whiffs at a 25% rate. Where will that number go facing ML pitching. When analyzing this, remember he doesn't get to bat off Twins pitching!

[darin617]

The K's will be very high for Park for sure facing MLB quality pitchers now.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

I think Hicks is out of options, but I get what you're saying.

 

I know he is out of options - but he still needs to prove he can put it together for a whole season.  He may end up being the 4th outfielder or dealt.

[snarkerbarnyard]

I think it's almost a certainty that Plouffe goes, and that the Twins have 0 interest in putting Sano in the outfield. A big deal was made about getting Sano OF reps in winter ball, and I believe it was 100% only to keep some leverage when trying to deal Plouffe.

 

If Park struggles, then you send him to AAA and let him season. His 70 grade power will play eventually. At that point you have Arcia or Vargas assume the DH role. And, if every pessimist's opinion on Sano's D at 3rd comes to fruition, then you see how Polanco handles it over there. He would be a hell of a lot better option than Nunez.

[mnfireman]

What about trading Dozier and asking Plouffe to play 2B? I know he's finally turned into serviceable 3B, but he is a former SS and I think he could transition (again!). He is also roughly the same size as  Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker, Daniel Murphy and only a little bigger than Robinson Cano, amongst others.

[SwainZag]

 

I don't think the Twins would have Miguel moving to the OF in winter ball if Plouffe was going to be traded. Could be Hicks or Rosario..

 

He is not "moving" to the OF.  He is getting some innings in LF.  There is a big difference.

[SwainZag]

 

What about trading Dozier and asking Plouffe to play 2B? I know he's finally turned into serviceable 3B, but he is a former SS and I think he could transition (again!). He is also roughly the same size as  Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker, Daniel Murphy and only a little bigger than Robinson Cano, amongst others.

So you have an above average defensive 2B who hits for power and under a team friendly deal for 3 more years and is a year younger............but we want to trade him and then move the more expensive, less productive player to a new position..........how does that make any sense?

[mnfireman]

Just exploring all possibilities. Who brings a better return in a trade? Which teams do the Twins match up with in terms of positional needs? 

 

And I think I would be more inclined to say that they are both about league average at their positions, according to the defensive metrics I have seen. And if you check the stats they are pretty close in offensive production. Dozier has  114 and 101 OPS+ the last two seasons, Plouffe is 110 and 99, and both are a 99 OPS+ for their career.

 

 

[Homer Hanky]

I cringe at the idea of an inexperienced SANO running full speed toward CF and killing Buxton... 

 

I could see many run ins out there. 

 

1. Trade ploooof

 

2. Eddie Bux and Arcia with Hicks #4 [Trade Arcia when Kepler is ready...] 

 

3. Sano at 3B 

[jorgenswest]

Minnesota had a league bottom 20 hits from the bench last year with a slash line of 171/224/256.

 

Trade Plouffe? Sure if someone is foolish enough to give up a starting catcher.

 

Is it necessary? Absolutely not. They need another bat on this team. They are gambling Park is that additional bat.

[bird]

 

I'll put the odds of Plouffe on this team at 20%. IMO the Sano to RF angle is just smoke and mirrors to show other teams that Plouffe could fit on the roster. Sano will be the starting 3B on opening day, and Plouffe will be dealt for a legitimate bullpen arm.

 

Funny, but I might place the exact opposite odds. Ryan doesn't strike me as being capable of posturing. I also think he's had some recent painful experiences, some self-inflicted, with unready players that are haunting him and will make him reticent to part prematurely with either Dozier or Plouffe. He was stung by Hicks, Arcia, Santana, Vargas, and Pinto in the last two years, and still has to worry about Rosario and Buxton too. I think the Sano OF thing is real.

[jsteve96]

right now I'm thinking keep them all. at least to start the season. Sano at 3rd and Plouffe a super utility guy they can throw in an OF corner or corner IF any day they decide to. rotating would definitely keep the team healthier longer.. 81 games out of Plouffe, give Mauer more days off so he plays like 120 games to give plouffe a few more starts.. Whats wrong with having 1 great bench bat? perfect for the late and close games

[Platoon]

He is not "moving" to the OF.  He is getting some innings in LF.  There is a big difference.

With the Park deal, somebody's gotta move somewhere! You can't put two ton of corner IF in a one ton infield!

[Platoon]

Funny, but I might place the exact opposite odds. Ryan doesn't strike me as being capable of posturing. I also think he's had some recent painful experiences, some self-inflicted, with unready players that are haunting him and will make him reticent to part prematurely with either Dozier or Plouffe. He was stung by Hicks, Arcia, Santana, Vargas, and Pinto in the last two years, and still has to worry about Rosario and Buxton too. I think the Sano OF thing is real.

Why was he stung? Almost no player comes up and is an instant success. For those few, the dreaded sophomore jinx awaits. The practical fact is it takes into the third year, well over 1000 AB's to be what you're gonna be. That's why I refer to Plouffe, Dozier, and more recently Hicks as examples. With them the Twins had no options so they had to stick with them. And they leveled off. AS grade? Not really, but very capable. I like Sano and Buxton. But I figure the growing pains next year will be painful. And with the exception of service time, Buxtons future is not going to be helped playing in northern NY.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I take it with the signing of Byung-ho Park that Trevor Plouffe will be gone once the winter meetings start. There is no way that Joe Mauer would ask for a change of scenery and agree to a trade. Sad part would be sending at least $40-50M in a deal and still  not get anything useful in return.

I would like to say as shocked as everyone else must be that the Twins won the bidding for Park it brings great sadness that Plouffe is a goner now. Still they Twins only have 30 days to make a deal or they get their money back so who knows what happens next. Still very concerned with the HUGE K numbers for Park in Korea.

 

FYI:  Just posted early this morning, Terry Ryan did not bid on Park to subtract others.  He's adding.

Plouffe stays, Mauer stays, Park is DH and Sano is in RF. 

[KGB]

Without adding Park, there was no chance the Twins trade Plouffe.  They didn't want to lose both of there top RBI hitters.  Now, they at least have the option to shop Plouffe. 

 

With Sano being a cornerstone of the team, I hope they do trade Plouffe.  Right now Sano seems to be the man without a position and if the outfield doesn't work for him, they have created a problem that didn't need to happen.

 

Let's hope for an active offseason for Ryan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, Park doesn't make sense in a vacuum. I like the idea, but I have to think Ryan has more in store. This may turn out to be one of the more active offseasons in a while. 

[Mike Sixel]

Is the sophomore slump real? I doubt it.....

[bird]

 

Why was he stung? Almost no player comes up and is an instant success. For those few, the dreaded sophomore jinx awaits. The practical fact is it takes into the third year, well over 1000 AB's to be what you're gonna be. That's why I refer to Plouffe, Dozier, and more recently Hicks as examples. With them the Twins had no options so they had to stick with them. And they leveled off. AS grade? Not really, but very capable. I like Sano and Buxton. But I figure the growing pains next year will be painful. And with the exception of service time, Buxtons future is not going to be helped playing in northern NY.

 

Not a big believer in the sophomore slump thing as a predictable event, but Ryan might be inclined to hang on to Plouffe and Dozier for one more season precisely because of his experiences with "sophomores": Hicks, Santana, Vargas, Arcia... I'll plug the Offseason Handbook here by alluding to the fact that Ryan bluntly said the failings of Arcia, Vargas, and Santana were probably the biggest disappointments last season. Ryan is exceptionally patient though, and my guess is his patience has worn out with one or more of those guys. My bet is he's had it with Arcia.