Jake Reed earns AFL praise from Keith Law

[Steven Buhr]

In his second installment from Arizona Fall League (Insider subscription required), ESPN's Keith Law included the following glowing review of Twins RP prospect Jake Reed:

 

"Minnesota right-hander Jake Reed flashed three above-average pitches in a 94-96 mph fastball with life, a knockout slider clocked at 85-86 and a potentially plus change that comes in at 89 mph, which I'd like to see more."

 

Good to hear it from a national source.

[Thrylos]

That's indeed a good thing

 

But. 

 

 

If his change is at 89 and his FB bottoms at 94, he needs to work on his change.  That has to sit at -10 mph from FB or below to be effective in the majors. 

[Monkeypaws]

The Twins don't look so crazy drafting power arm relievers in droves the last few drafts any more.

[Thrylos]

 

The Twins don't look so crazy drafting power arm relievers in droves the last few drafts any more.

 

That happened in 3 drafts: 2012, 2014 and (Maybe) 2015

 

the crazy part was wanting to convert them into starters.   Last time I checked, still hasn't worked out...

[beckmt]

Command would also be an issue.  If he cannot throw the slider for a strike some of the time, MLB hitters soon will not chase.  Also will need the changeup for left handed hitters.

[beckmt]

would expect him to start back in Chattanooga, and hopefully move to Rochester shortly after. 

[jokin]

 

In his second installment from Arizona Fall League (Insider subscription required), ESPN's Keith Law included the following glowing review of Twins RP prospect Jake Reed:

 

"Minnesota right-hander Jake Reed flashed three above-average pitches in a 94-96 mph fastball with life, a knockout slider clocked at 85-86 and a potentially plus change that comes in at 89 mph, which I'd like to see more."

 

Good to hear it from a national source.

 

Any comments from KLaw about any of the other 6 guys?  Garver and Turner are making a good showing, thus far. I have no idea what Hildenberger can offer at the MLB level, but statistically he's done well in 4 appearances. Walker's been Walker. Burdi has one official and one unofficial very successful performances- it would be nice to here from KLaw on his new-found control. 

[dgwills]

 

That happened in 3 drafts: 2012, 2014 and (Maybe) 2015

 

the crazy part was wanting to convert them into starters.   Last time I checked, still hasn't worked out...

Tyler Duffey is doing well. Considering where they were drafted, if one of the converted relievers works out it would be a success.

[Thrylos]

 

Tyler Duffey is doing well. Considering where they were drafted, if one of the converted relievers works out it would be a success.

 

So far so good.  However:  The point of the experiment was to get a bunch of 95-100 mph relievers to turn into starters and hope they sustain those velocities:

 

Duffey's average fastball velocity in 2015?  90.2 mph.  Faster only than Milone's as far as Twins' starters went...

[Seth Stohs]

 

That's indeed a good thing

 

But. 

 

 

If his change is at 89 and his FB bottoms at 94, he needs to work on his change.  That has to sit at -10 mph from FB or below to be effective in the majors. 

 

Completely agree. That was my first thought when I read this earlier today too. Going to have to find a way to drop another 3-6 mph off the changeup for it to be an effective pitch.

[ashbury]

Completely agree. That was my first thought when I read this earlier today too. Going to have to find a way to drop another 3-6 mph off the changeup for it to be an effective pitch.

Agreed, you don't want too little (or too much) variation of fastball to change. I also wouldn't read too much into a single game's radar readings; might be some kind of work-in-progress thing that already has been ironed out. It's one of the things the AFL is for.

[Lonestar]

I don't completely agree, despite fangraph's article on Marco Estrada.  If his arm slot and arm speed is the same and the pitch has [let's say] plus action and above average control, how is it different than a slider with the same attributes?

[Lonestar]

 

He’s not worried about the velocity any more, as you can tell. “I just try to throw good pitches and I don’t worry about the speed,” Greinke agreed. “If my arm speed is as hard as I can get it and it moves, that’s better than trying to worry about the speed of the pitch.” That is consistent with the best research on what makes a changeup good, and also explains this excellent graph from Jeff Sullivan’s piece on Greinke’s changeup.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-zack-greinke-learned-from-felix-hernandez-exactly/

 

 

 

 

[Lonestar]

Greinke's average FB = 91.8 MPH.

Greinke's average CH = 88.5 MPH

 

Felix Hernandez's average FB = 91.8 MPH (92.4 last year)

Felix Hernandez's average CH = 88.1 MPH (89.3 last year)

 

[bluechipper]

 

Greinke's average FB = 91.8 MPH.

Greinke's average CH = 88.5 MPH

 

Felix Hernandez's average FB = 91.8 MPH (92.4 last year)

Felix Hernandez's average CH = 88.1 MPH (89.3 last year)

If he has the same downward movement that those guys get then there isn't a whole lot of concern about the velocity difference.

[bird]

 

 

 

the crazy part was wanting to convert them into starters.   Last time I checked, still hasn't worked out...

 

I have to disagree, thrylos.

 

What's the crazy part about Tyler Duffey? And exactly which conversion attempts aren't "working out"? The reports are pretty encouraging on Tyler Jay, don't you agree? Melotakis was injured all year. Who else should we discuss that suggests this is all craziness?

 

The jury's still out on most if not all of those experiments, so perhaps the crazy part right now is criticizing the strategy at this stage of the game.

 

Also, you won't be able to find a single source that ever said the strategy was to have all those relievers maintain their velocities as starters. I think you're really reaching to find fault on this subject. Who cares what Duffey's velocity is if he's effective?

 

 

[bird]

 

Tyler Duffey is doing well. Considering where they were drafted, if one of the converted relievers works out it would be a success.

 

 

Great point.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not sure I loved drafting all those power arms but we still have to wait and see how it works out.  Most picks taken in those areas (only two, Burdi and Bard, were top 60 picks and Burdi's in an entirely different class as he was a projected 1st rounder who fell) don't make the majors.  So if Duffey and one other of those arms makes an impact, the Twins are probably ahead of the curve.  

[dbminn]

Converting relievers to starters, if only for a short while, has its benefits: The reliever learns to throw three pitches. They also learn how to pitch (location, pitch sequence) instead of blowing fastballs by everybody.

[Mike Sixel]

To answer an earlier question, that was the only Twin mentioned in the last update. He's only commenting on guys he gets to see play live so far (not sure if he'll talk to others for later work). With Kiley out at FG, we are missing out on them doing reporting from there, as far as I can tell (while the new guy gets up to speed on writing all the rankings for the orgs).

 

I don't know how anyone can say the experiment is a complete failure at this point. Duffey has already provided actual MLB value. Doesn't mean they've found a new inefficiency they can use over and over, but it might mean they have one data point that works.

[Seth Stohs]

Noting the playoffs the last few seasons, bullpens matter. It's great to have aces, and Madison Bumgarner showed that last year... but there have been a lot of 'aces' who struggle in the small sample size of the playoffs (see Price, Kershaw and several others)... However, those bullpens like the Royals can certainly make it possible for a team to just need to try to get 5-6 good innings from a starter. 

 

Duffey would likely be throwing up to 97 if he were in the bullpen, but I'll take my chances with him continuing as a starter.

[nicksaviking]

Did I miss a discussion about converting Reed to a starter?

 

Otherwise, who cares about the change-up.  Just drop the pitch, an exclusive FB/Slider combo works for plenty of relievers, including Glen Perkins.

 

OK, bad example as of late.

[Thrylos]

 

Greinke's average FB = 91.8 MPH.

Greinke's average CH = 88.5 MPH

 

Felix Hernandez's average FB = 91.8 MPH (92.4 last year)

Felix Hernandez's average CH = 88.1 MPH (89.3 last year)

 

 

Those have to be cutters not changeups.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess I'm not sure what 'just enough' is, but a good change has to take just enough off of it that a hitter will be out in front of it and is unable to just sit on the FB.  I'd imagine 3MPH would lead to a lot more foul balls or weak contact, which means it isn't an out pitch in the traditional sense, but I'm not seeing this as the end of his career, especially if he can still get Ks with the FB. 

[ashbury]

Those have to be cutters not changeups.  

Yeah, we are in this case suffering either from too much information or too little.

[Wyorev]

 

Yeah, we are in this case suffering either from too much information or too little.

What a great problem to have!

[sane]

 

That happened in 3 drafts: 2012, 2014 and (Maybe) 2015

 

the crazy part was wanting to convert them into starters.   Last time I checked, still hasn't worked out...

The hard-thrower draft was in 2014 for the Twins.

After Gordon at #1, the Twins drafted seven consecutive pitchers, who have only been in the system for one (2015) full season.

 

Much too early to evaluate the results:
Nick Burdi  RHP
Michael Cederoth  RHP
Sam Clay  LHP
Jake Reed  RHP
John Curtiss  RHP
Andro Cutura  RHP
Keaton Steele  RHP

[USAFChief]

In his second installment from Arizona Fall League (Insider subscription required), ESPN's Keith Law included the following glowing review of Twins RP prospect Jake Reed:

 

"Minnesota right-hander Jake Reed flashed three above-average pitches in a 94-96 mph fastball with life, a knockout slider clocked at 85-86 and a potentially plus change that comes in at 89 mph, which I'd like to see more."

 

Good to hear it from a national source.

Just speculatin' here, but I wonder if he doesn't have the slider and change mixed up. 89 seems like a much more normal slider speed, and 85 more normal for a change.

[nicksaviking]

Just speculatin' here, but I wonder if he doesn't have the slider and change mixed up. 89 seems like a much more normal slider speed, and 85 more normal for a change.

Nice catch

[Willihammer]

 

Those have to be cutters not changeups.  

I don't think so. Greinke interviewed about the hard CH on FG and Felix has been famous for his for a while now.

 

edit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-zack-greinke-learned-from-felix-hernandez-exactly/