Article: Chasing An Ace

[tobi0040]

 

You don't consider Sonny Gray an ace??

 

Very few things in life are less productive than arguing about the definition of "ace".

 

I will just throw out numbers and we should all just make our own conclusions about the definition of ace.

 

Last year, he was 9th in ERA, 26th in FIP, 21st in WAR, and 51st in k/9 among all qualified starters.  He added 4 wins to his team.  The guy is pretty good as far as I am concerned. 

 

Baseball reference says he hits ARB for the first time in 2017, but don't think that is right. They have been off on that in the past.

[tobi0040]

 

Sano? teams would pay more like $75-100MM for him right now. Look at what they are paying international free agents.

As for your point, it misses a point that people seem to ignore a lot. Only 25 guys are on a roster at a time. Only 8 SP pitch in many years. Only 1 at most infield positions in a year. IMO, it's not as simple as saying "you can't give up 2 WAR from these 5 people, for a guy that only gives you 5 WAR back", since those 5 might not be able to play at the same time (and might be replaceable themselves with 3 WAR guys). Generally, the analysis works, but specifically, not always.

 

We are not comparing apples to apples here.  The 62M for an international free agent for example also pays the player for six years.  In my hypothetical, the team that pays 40-50M for Sano also has to pay him for the next 6-7 years to play there.  3 ARB years is going to be another 40-50M

 

My broad point is that younger players have an inherent value because they make nothing.

 

 

Edited October 21, 2015 by tobi0040

[Vanimal46]

Make your own ace is the ideal option since their cost is minimal and years are controlled. There's very little evidence of that happening during the TR era other than Johan. Berrios is the next best chance, who has zero MLB experience. I don't think he's going to come up to the MLB and have a 2006 Liriano campaign next season, or even in 2017. So how are the Twins supposed to take this next step to being a 90+ win baseball club next season? Or are we back to building for 2 years from now? 

[Mike Sixel]

We are not comparing apples to apples here.  The 62M for an international free agent for example also pays the player for six years.  In my hypothetical, the team that pays 40-50M for Sano also has to pay him for the next 6-7 years to play there.  3 ARB years is going to be another 40-50M

 

My broad point is that younger players have an inherent value because they make nothing.

Very true on that point.

[Monkeypaws]

 

I honestly think that Berrios is their "ace." Call it blind faith, but I think he'll pan out. I also think that the Twins need to pour their resources into building an elite bullpen. Easier said than done, but recent years have shown that that's how teams win in the playoffs. Get ahead after 5 or 6 and shut the door.

I feel he is getting sold short here - the guy has gone out and dominated guys years older than him at every level, and stands at the threshold of the majors at the ripe old age of 21, same as a college junior draftee.

 

Trading him at this point would be madness.

 

I know people are concerned about his size, but the Royals have a lot of guys 6' or less that are pitching quite effectively: Volquez, Ventura, Cueto, Herrera.

[nicksaviking]

 

How's that ace making going over the last 30 years?

 

Awful, they've drafted and developed two in the organization's entire run in Minnesota. It still needs to happen though.

 

To be clear, I'm not against supplementing the homegrown talent with difference makers from the outside, in 1987 they brought back Blyleven and in 1991 they got Morris.  However the Twins already did this with this club with Nolasco, Hughes and Santana, unfortunately it doesn't look like it was enough.  Can't keep doubling down on these bad contracts, at some point they have to try a different approach.

[tobi0040]

I would go after Gray IF he would sign a deal that buys out 1-2 years of FA and they are overwhelmed by quantity, i.e. no Sano, Buxton, or Berrios. 

 

The odds of that happening are very slim with these pre-conditions.  

 

Just thought I would note that Gray was the 65th rated prospect at his high point. Not to say that every guy in that range has the same first three years as Gray.  But at this point in his career Berrios was thought of higher.

Edited October 21, 2015 by tobi0040

[Nick Nelson]

 

Hmmm... Cards, Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets....  Royals, Jays, Yankees, Stros, and Rangers...

The only teams without a true ace Cardinals and Yankees, had borderline aces and were eliminated at their first opportunity.  The Rangers and Jays were out of it before dealing for aces.  The Royals went and got Cueto who was fantastic in Game 5.  If you don't have an ace (or several) you had better have a lights out rotation top to bottom.  

 

Arieta, Mets anyone, Price, and Cueto.  That seems to make a pretty solid case for needing an ace to both make the post season, and win in the post season.

Are you arguing that Cueto was somehow instrumental in getting the Royals to the playoffs? He's been more of a negative than a positive since coming over.

 

The Royals made it to the World Series last year without a real "ace." They'll probably do it this year with Cueto struggling. I don't think bringing them up as an example supports the point you're trying to make. 

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Are you arguing that Cueto was somehow instrumental in getting the Royals to the playoffs? He's been more of a negative than a positive since coming over.

 

The Royals made it to the World Series last year without a real "ace." They'll probably do it this year with Cueto struggling. I don't think bringing them up as an example supports the point you're trying to make. 

 

Also, the Blue Jays only had Price for 74 innings.  Other than that they had four guys with FIP's in the 4.20 to 4.40 range.

[mazeville]

No. I do not think the Twins should chase an "ace." 

 

 

I certainly don't think the Twins should go out and sign a free agent. The Twins' track record on free agent signings is ugly. And they owe a ton of money to too many guys. If there is a lesson to be learned from the past couple of years, it's that the Twins are basically terrible when it comes to signing free agents to multi-year deals.

 

And I don't like the Sonny Gray trade idea, either. I'm not above trading prospects. But I think there's enough potential in Berrios that he could be just as good as Gray soon enough. Or at least close.

 

The Twins are always better when they develop aces from within. Santana and an improved Phil Hughes could both potentially fill that "ace" role if need be. But I think that "ace" factor is terribly overrated.

 

The other element here is that the Twins suddenly have a surplus of starting pitchers to the point it's a problem. We've got Hughes and Santana who aren't going anywhere. Kyle Gibson has earned a spot. Tyler Duffy has earned a spot. Tommy Milone has earned a spot. And Trevor May was probably the best pitcher on the staff last year. That's six pitchers. And then there is Berrios and of course, Ricky Nolasco. By my math that's eight starters. Even if the Twins traded for an ace, they'd still need to deal with this surplus.

 

That surplus alone means that May will stay in the bullpen next year. It also means Berrios will be in AAA unless the Twins trade someone like Tommy Milone or Kyle Gibson. Oh, and that's assuming the Twins trade Nolasco. And if they trade Berrios for an ace they would have to trade another pitcher because none of those guys are going to AAA.

 

On the bright side, it does mean the Twins have the potential of a decent to good rotation next year, especially if Hughes improves and Santana pitches like he did late in the summer. Tyler Duffy should be able to improve. Maybe Berrios forces the issue and barges his way on the staff. Or one of the other guys steps up. 

 

But it means no free agent starters. 

 

 

[Loosey]

I think the Twins will be good next year.  World Series good?  I don't think so.  In that case in a perfect world Phil Hughes reverts back to 2014 performance.  Then I would package him with a prospect of need for the other team and trade for young stud. 

 

Phil is from Tampa and wouldn't mind playing there is my best guess.  So in the 2016 offseason assuming Phil is stellar in 2015 I would do a Phil Hughes, Gibson and Kepler for Chris Archer.  I doubt Tampa does that, but Tampa isn't afraid to trade and the Twins get to keep Berrios.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Also, the Blue Jays only had Price for 74 innings.  Other than that they had four guys with FIP's in the 4.20 to 4.40 range.

 

And Price is one of many "aces" you'll find out there with horrific post-season success.  

 

People seem to forget we had one of the best pitchers in baseball for much of our last run and it guaranteed nothing.  I'd rather have one than not, but I'm not going to fall over myself in FA to get one if my dollar could go farther on, say, Chris Davis or Matt Wieters.

[Boom Boom]

Is there really a correlation between pitcher height and effectiveness? I ask because it always seems to come up when projecting Berrios.

 

I get that JO is like four feet tall in heels, but Johan wasn't real tall. And for every Randy Johnson there's a bunch of Mike Pelfreys.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Is there really a correlation between pitcher height and effectiveness? I ask because it always seems to come up when projecting Berrios.

I get that JO is like four feet tall in heels, but Johan wasn't real tall. And for every Randy Johnson there's a bunch of Mike Pelfreys.

I'm not sure what the statistical correlation is, but scouts and analysts tend to feel that shorter pitchers can't get the same downward trajectory on their pitches, making them more susceptible to fly balls and especially home runs. Intuitively it makes sense and we've certainly seen it play out for many diminutive hurlers.

 

We just haven't seen that with Berrios, at all. He's not a ground ball guy necessarily but he keeps the ball in the yard. He's given up only 25 homers in 440 innings, including just 12 last year in 27 starts as a 21-year-old in AA and AAA. 

[tobi0040]

 

I'm not sure what the statistical correlation is, but scouts and analysts tend to feel that shorter pitchers can't get the same downward trajectory on their pitches, making them more susceptible to fly balls and especially home runs. Intuitively it makes sense and we've certainly seen it play out for many diminutive hurlers.

 

We just haven't seen that with Berrios, at all. He's not a ground ball guy necessarily but he keeps the ball in the yard. He's given up only 25 homers in 440 innings, including just 12 last year in 27 starts as a 21-year-old in AA and AAA. 

 

Law was the biggest proponent of this.  He was very low on Berrios but has seemed to reverse course this year.

 

Posters threw out Pedro a lot, but he would always fire back and say that you can't comp every guy under 6 feet to one of the most dominant guys ever

 

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2015 by tobi0040

[Nick Nelson]

I look at Toronto's Marcus Stroman as an example of what a dominating pitcher who lacks height can look like. He's a few inches shorter than Berrios and he's a beast.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure if it is a self fulfilling prophecy or not, but there just aren't many shorter pitchers that are great. We can always name exceptions to the rule, but that doesn't prove much. Maybe just more elite athletes are taller to begin with? Who knows, but I think there is some selection bias here....

[Willihammer]

2/3 of the Royals 3-headed monster is under 6.' Ventura is 6' exactly. Pedro, Johan, Oswalt, Hudson, plenty of pitchers in that 6' range who did fine. Stuff's all that matters IMO and Berrios has stuff.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Willihammer

[Willihammer]

A team doesn't strictly "need" an ace to win the WS but it sure doesn't hurt and personally as a fan its fun to watch a stud pitcher take the ball and go 9 innings and dominate. We had a glimpse of that with Hughes last year but it has really been in short supply since the Santana days.

[Vanimal46]

 

I look at Toronto's Marcus Stroman as an example of what a dominating pitcher who lacks height can look like. He's a few inches shorter than Berrios and he's a beast.

 

I also look at Rick Vaughn as a comparison. Dude is only 5'10" and threw 97 consistently...... Is that not the same??

[Boom Boom]

I've also heard that taller pitchers are less injury-prone because there's less strain on their arm. I don't buy that one either.

[tobi0040]

 

I also look at Rick Vaughn as a comparison. Dude is only 5'10" and threw 97 consistently...... Is that not the same??

 

Wild thing did admit to using PED's during the filming.

[ashbury]

Wild thing did admit to using PED's during the filming.

PE, maybe. D, I imagine so.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Tim Lincecum is under 6' feet, and he didn't even take care of himself off the field while winning those Cy Youngs. But he had stuff.

[mikelink45]

Please - the Twins will not step up to the true aces on the market and lets not encourage Terry Ryan to go out and sign another lower cost vet - we have Nolasco, Hughes, Santana clogging the system now.  Bring up Berrios, work with Duffey, Gibson, Berrios and make a trade with the others.  Get young, not mediocre.

[nicksaviking]

I also think the "downward plane" need is overblown. 

 

If it was so devastatingly important, would anyone throw from the pretty standard 3/4 delivery?  Heck, what about a side-armer.

[dxpavelka]

 

I really hope this doesn't go down the "you have to have an ace to win in the playoffs" path.  It's totally incorrect and massively overrated.

 

See:  Kershaw, Clayton

[USAFChief]

I also think the "downward plane" need is overblown. 

 

If it was so devastatingly important, would anyone throw from the pretty standard 3/4 delivery?  Heck, what about a side-armer.

Not to mention, what is the actual difference in "downward plane" between a guy 5'10" and a guy 6'10" from 60 ft away? Can't be much.

[Loosey]

If the height thing really is an issue I doubt the Twins would trade for Sonny Gray.  He's only 5'11".  That being said he is borderline "Ace" material.  So like most of the other posters I don't think height is an issue. 

[Mike Sixel]

Not to mention, what is the actual difference in "downward plane" between a guy 5'10" and a guy 6'10" from 60 ft away? Can't be much.

Arms are probably shorter too......do either of you have evidence that the scouts who believe this are wrong?

 

Remember, it is a rule, not a law. There will be exceptions to rules.