The Twins capabilities / results for acquiring talent through trades

[Eris]

I came across this article that discusses the Twins futility in obtaining talent from outside the organization.  I have not seen it referenced here.  There have been a number of threads this years that touched on a similar theme.

 

"There are two ways to build a baseball team, and the Twins are not good at one of them" written by Bryan Grosnick on SB Nation

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/9/9337965/minnesota-twins-good-at-drafting-and-developing-bad-at-everything-else

[DaveW]

Yeah other than the lucky Liriano/Nathan/Boof trade the Twins have been quite poor at acquiring talent from other teams, they had an awesome talent in Gomez but foolishly gave him up because he didn't fit the "twins way" which 1 year later turned into Jim Hooey. In the meantime we gave up guys like Span, Gomez, Ortiz, Garza, Santana all with plenty of time left in the org for the cheap and got back a combined: 1 year of good play by Delmon Young, one average year of JJ Hardy and the only guy still around is Meyer who if he becomes an average bullpen arm it will be a "success" at this point.

 

 

[Willihammer]

Good read. I just hope the Twins failure at trade doesn't dissuade them trading in the future.

[ashbury]

 In the meantime we gave up guys like Span, Gomez, Ortiz, Garza, Santana all with plenty of time left in the org for the cheap and got back a combined: 1 year of good play by Delmon Young, one average year of JJ Hardy and the only guy still around is Meyer who if he becomes an average bullpen arm it will be a "success" at this point.

Yeah, leaving out one guy like those, Revere, who brought back one guy, May^*, who might yet spoil this narrative to any degree.

 

^{* _{Also Worley, so, well, yeah.}}

[Winston Smith]

Might be hard to spin this sow's ear into a silk purse. Rather damning for the front office  and scouting department.

[Badsmerf]

The luster of the aj trade wore off over 5 years ago for me. It's plain to see to everyone is outside of MN where they lack is evolution.

 

It seems there has been an increasing amount of negative ink about the fundamental flaws of twins organization. I wonder if the right people will begin to take notice?

[gunnarthor]

Well, nice to see a critique that says the Twins are good at drafting and developing talent.  I thought that was the reason the Twins were bad.

 

We'll be fine.  Besides the AJ trade, Ryan collected Milton, Silva, Punto, Ortiz, Bartlett, Lohse, Guerrier, Stewart, Guzman, Ford, Liriano, Castillo and Casilla.  

[Mike Sixel]

Well, nice to see a critique that says the Twins are good at drafting and developing talent.  I thought that was the reason the Twins were bad.

 

We'll be fine.  Besides the AJ trade, Ryan collected Milton, Silva, Punto, Ortiz, Bartlett, Lohse, Guerrier, Stewart, Guzman, Ford, Liriano, Castillo and Casilla.

Did you even read the article, where it compares to how OTHER teams did? Because it clearly states they aren't good at acquiring outside talent relative to other teams.

[gunnarthor]

 

Did you even read the article, where it compares to how OTHER teams did? Because it clearly states they aren't good at acquiring outside talent relative to other teams.

Yeah, I read it but it's dubious.  We'll be fine.  

[Mike Sixel]

It wasn't the greatest study, but you seem to be dismissing it because it doesn't fit your beliefs, not because it is invalid.

[gunnarthor]

 

It wasn't the greatest study, but you seem to be dismissing it because it doesn't fit your beliefs, not because it is invalid.

How much weight should I give it?  We have past history that shows our GM has been pretty good about this.  The team's clearly on the right track and seems to be doing things correctly.  I'm not sure what to do with a piece like that.  We'll be fine.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Or be like Boston: Crawford, Sandoval, Ramirez.

Break the bank and it doesn't always yield gold.

"Homegrown is good," Neil Young.

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I came across this article that discusses the Twins futility in obtaining talent from outside the organization.  I have not seen it referenced here.  There have been a number of threads this years that touched on a similar theme.

 

"There are two ways to build a baseball team, and the Twins are not good at one of them" written by Bryan Grosnick on SB Nation

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/9/9337965/minnesota-twins-good-at-drafting-and-developing-bad-at-everything-else

 

This makes total sense from experience. Completely agree. Terry Ryan et al are great at drafting and developing, and mostly horrible at trading/FA.  All the more reason to put the thumb on the scale in NOT trading our prospects for established players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, nice to see a critique that says the Twins are good at drafting and developing talent.  I thought that was the reason the Twins were bad.

 

We'll be fine.  Besides the AJ trade, Ryan collected Milton, Silva, Punto, Ortiz, Bartlett, Lohse, Guerrier, Stewart, Guzman, Ford, Liriano, Castillo and Casilla.  

Guerrier was a waiver claim.

 

That list was compiled over 20 years, back to when Rule 5 and draft compensation rules were different.  Ortiz was going to be Rule 5 eligible a year earlier than he would now.  When we dealt Greg Swindell, he  returned draft pick compensation to Boston a few months later.

 

And with only 12 guys on your list, over 20 years, you're still reaching down to the Ford/Casilla level of useful spare parts for a couple seasons.  Plus 5 of those guys came directly or indirectly thanks to the trade of a 29 year old star as we were slashing payroll preparing for a franchise sale/move/contraction -- think TR will get that opportunity again?

[gunnarthor]

 

 TR will get that opportunity again?

I think Ryan will get the opportunity to make this a pretty successful team.  Again.

[USAFChief]

 

Guerrier was a waiver claim.

 

That list was compiled over 20 years, back to when Rule 5 and draft compensation rules were different.  Ortiz was going to be Rule 5 eligible a year earlier than he would now.  When we dealt Greg Swindell, he  returned draft pick compensation to Boston a few months later.

 

And with only 12 guys on your list, over 20 years, you're still reaching down to the Ford/Casilla level of useful spare parts for a couple seasons.  Plus 5 of those guys came directly or indirectly thanks to the trade of a 29 year old star as we were slashing payroll preparing for a franchise sale/move/contraction -- think TR will get that opportunity again?

Plus a nitpic:  Liriano was not "besides the AJ trade."

 

He came in the AJ trade.

[Mike Sixel]

I think Ryan will get the opportunity to make this a pretty successful team.  Again.

Was that the question?

[gunnarthor]

 

Was that the question?

It was the answer to the only relevant question.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It was the answer to the only relevant question.

Jesus?

[Brandon]

I disagree with the article. When Terry Ryan makes a trade, They usually turn out in our favor. Getting Escobar for 2 months of Liriano was a heist. May for Revere is turning into a good one. Most of the acquisition the article laments were actually good lower cost moves that worked out. From using the Stat lines from the article is that we don't trade for core players and so what if we don't do that.

[Mike Sixel]

I disagree with the article. When Terry Ryan makes a trade, They usually turn out in our favor. Getting Escobar for 2 months of Liriano was a heist. May for Revere is turning into a good one. Most of the acquisition the article laments were actually good lower cost moves that worked out. From using the Stat lines from the article is that we don't trade for core players and so what if we don't do that.

Isn't that the point of the article? They don't build well from trades compared to other teams?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Jesus?

Parable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think Ryan will get the opportunity to make this a pretty successful team.  Again.

Since he is GM, he gets that opportunity every day

[Linus]

I thinks trades have been TRs strength over the years so I disagree with the premise of the article. He doesn't trade that much but that is not necessarily a bad thing.

[Thrylos]

Judging a GM only on trades or only on free agent signing or only on draft picks, does not make any sense.

 

If there were a singular thing a GM chould be judged on is World Championships and World Series appearances.   Ryan is oh for 17 in those metrics.

 

But there is isn't. 

 

Ryan did make a couple of good trades, did botch a couple of others, did sign a couple of decent free agents and did sign a bunch of bad ones and let a future hall of famer go.

 

The thing with Ryan is risk adversity.   And it shows in many ways:  Will not make a blockbuster, will not trade players and prospects at the peak of their value and will not sign top of the line free agents.  Instead he will make small, corrective type of moves of medium risk, medium reward.  That's ok if you have a team like the Yankees had a decade ago.  Not ok for the 2010s Twins...   Got to risk something to get a high reward.  Too bad that this piece does not get this and does not look at the big picture here...  Cannot look at trades in a vacuum

[Mike Sixel]

The article doesn't judge him solely on that. It clearly states they are good at drafting and developing players. It is an article about trading, how well the Twins do at adding impact players from trades. It is not a 1000 page treatise on Ryan's record overall.

[Major League Ready]

 

Judging a GM only on trades or only on free agent signing or only on draft picks, does not make any sense.

 

If there were a singular thing a GM chould be judged on is World Championships and World Series appearances.   Ryan is oh for 17 in those metrics.

 

But there is isn't. 

 

Ryan did make a couple of good trades, did botch a couple of others, did sign a couple of decent free agents and did sign a bunch of bad ones and let a future hall of famer go.

 

The thing with Ryan is risk adversity.   And it shows in many ways:  Will not make a blockbuster, will not trade players and prospects at the peak of their value and will not sign top of the line free agents.  Instead he will make small, corrective type of moves of medium risk, medium reward.  That's ok if you have a team like the Yankees had a decade ago.  Not ok for the 2010s Twins...   Got to risk something to get a high reward.  Too bad that this piece does not get this and does not look at the big picture here...  Cannot look at trades in a vacuum

You say this with such conviction.  The Minnesota Twins organization is a business.  I could come up with a half dozen things would without question be more important to judging a GM than World Series Appearances.

1. Leadership
2. Financial Performance
3. Managing / Elevating the Twins Brand
4. Risk Mitigation
5. Asset Management – Primarily related to minor league development given the Twins revenue relative to the top markets.
6. Developing methodologies that provide competitive advantage (Saber Metrics / Scouting, etc)T

 

The exact six measures are debatable but this is a business and the people who run them measure success differently than fans. 

[Thrylos]

 

You say this with such conviction.  The Minnesota Twins organization is a business.  I could come up with a half dozen things would without question be more important to judging a GM than World Series Appearances.

1. Leadership
2. Financial Performance
3. Managing / Elevating the Twins Brand
4. Risk Mitigation
5. Asset Management – Primarily related to minor league development given the Twins revenue relative to the top markets.
6. Developing methodologies that provide competitive advantage (Saber Metrics / Scouting, etc)T

 

The exact six measures are debatable but this is a business and the people who run them measure success differently than fans. 

 

In your list, isn't 2 really the end and the rest the means towards that end?   And wouldn't making to and winning world series be the biggest driver for number 2?  Lots of data on that.  On field performance translates to financial performance in professional sports.

[dxpavelka]

 

Yeah other than the lucky Liriano/Nathan/Boof trade the Twins have been quite poor at acquiring talent from other teams, they had an awesome talent in Gomez but foolishly gave him up because he didn't fit the "twins way" which 1 year later turned into Jim Hooey. In the meantime we gave up guys like Span, Gomez, Ortiz, Garza, Santana all with plenty of time left in the org for the cheap and got back a combined: 1 year of good play by Delmon Young, one average year of JJ Hardy and the only guy still around is Meyer who if he becomes an average bullpen arm it will be a "success" at this point.

Of course you fail to factor in the fact that Gomez, Ortiz & Santana were also all acquired from other organizations.

[Mike Sixel]

Of course you fail to factor in the fact that Gomez, Ortiz & Santana were also all acquired from other organizations.

I try every day not to raise the fact the Twins gave up on Gomez and Hardy, but we can go there if people want....