Protect or Trade

[TNLooky2015]

With the need to protect so many players in the next month (40 Man) and winter meeting trades in the horizon - Who do we protect and who do we try to trade before the rule 5 draft arrives?  There are many pieces we can pick up, but much will have to do with who we protect and who we trade.  Thoughts...................................

[Thegrin]

Keep them all. Don't trade any of them. Get MLB to wave the Rule 5 for the Twins and to allow 12 batters in a game... just for the Twins, mind you...so we can find a way to play Santana Vargas, Arcia and Kepler in our everyday lineup.   That would be the perfect way to find out whats up .  

[Platoon]

Keep them all. Don't trade any of them. Get MLB to wave the Rule 5 for the Twins and to allow 12 batters in a game... just for the Twins, mind you...so we can find a way to play Santana Vargas, Arcia and Kepler in our everyday lineup.   That would be the perfect way to find out whats up .  

We should have done this, this year. But May got in the way! And I ain't talking about Trevor either. Will we look back at 2015 like one looks back at a very big, very fun party? It was a great time. But the "hangover" will hurt?

[gunnarthor]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan trades Milone but Nolasco probably can't be moved at this point.  Arcia might be traded but it won't be for much (if they re-sign Hunter, I think Arcia's gone).  Plouffe is a possibility but I don't think they'll move him.  If they make a surprise trade, it might be Hicks, who looks like a real CFer now. 

 

Guys like Vargas, Danny Santana, Pinto have no trade value.

[Mike Sixel]

I am not convinced they need to worry about losing anyone of real value off the 40 man, other than Arcia, and that has nothing to do with having 40 guys, but the fact that he's out of options.

 

There are plenty of guys at the bottom of he 40 man that won't be lost in any kind of draft, not to mention a few that won't be back.

[HitInAPinch]

Yes, there are veteran starters that are "blocking" some minor league [potentially a couple MLB] starting pitchers.  I don't know how the Twins could separate those pitchers, with those contracts, from this team.  Not unless there's someway they can negotiate an injury settlement with Nolacso. 

 

I think a lot of things will play out in Spring Training.  If there's going to be any activity, that will be the time.

[Lenny Green]

Somehow we need to get creative in dumping Nolasco.  I'd look to a National League team and package Nolasco and some younger player (Vargas, Santana, ....) and literally ask for nothing in return.  It's time to turn the page. 

[DaveW]

As a 23 year old Arcia hit 20 HR in 103 games and posted an above average OPS. Under no scenario should he not be protected and under no scenario should he be traded for pennies on the dollar.

 

If he is traded, just wait for him to be crushing 25-30 HR a year for a smart team like Oakland or the Blue Jays.

[Kwak]

The Twins "showcased" Nolasco Sunday for the purpose of enticing a trade partner--and... .  There won't be one!  I think he may surprise people next season, so placing him in the rotation at the start of the season is not unreasonable.  Plus, I am confident that the Twins will play the "service time card" with Berrios next year so there will be a need for another starting pitcher.  Nolasco will replace Pelfrey in the Twins rotation--and at no extra cost  (TG!).

[Rosterman]

What names do the Twins have to actually add to the 40-man that will either be Rule 5 drafted, or walk as minor league free agents? Isthere some name in the low minors that we have to protect from the minor league portion of that draft?

 

Who on the roster can be let go and not sign for more elsewhere or given a better opportunity (Boyer, Thompson, Darnell). Would Achter or Tonkin be claimed?

 

In arbitration, do we keep Fien? What is the ultimate fate of Brian Duensing at this point? 

 

If we jettison Herrmann and Fryer, are there other catchers along thhe same line that can be signed to minor league contracts (not named Paulino or de san Miguel). 

 

Barring a trade, there are at least a dozen names on the Twins roster than can be replaced by similar palyers, possibly for less monies, and signed to an "invite to spring training" minor league contract.

 

And, finally, besides Berrios...what Twins minor league players might make an impact (or just an appearance) in 2016? Hopefully with an intention to stay.

[sane]

If I were to shave my head and disguise myself as Terry Ryan, I would do the following prior to RuleV draft:

1) Remove from the 40-man: Thompson, Darnell,  Robinson, Graham, O'Rourke and Fryer.

2) Do NOT sign FA's Hunter, Cotts,  Pelfrey and Duensing.

3) Add to the 40-man: Adam Brett Walker, JT Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Zack Jones, Engelb Vielma, Mason Meloutakis, Luke Bard and Felix Jorge.

4) Don't pick anyone in MLB portion of RuleV draft.

[DJL44]

Terry Ryan spoke before the game Sunday and said "about 6" was the number they were thinking of protecting.

[DocBauer]

Somehow we need to get creative in dumping Nolasco.  I'd look to a National League team and package Nolasco and some younger player (Vargas, Santana, ....) and literally ask for nothing in return.  It's time to turn the page.

 

What I've said all along. Pay half the remaining contract and toss someone else in to move him and hopefully get at least a marginal prospect back, if not an honest to goodness reliever. His previous success and track record in the NL, IMHO, should make him attractive to someone who needs rotation depth and would be interested in 2 years at half price.

[DocBauer]

As a 23 year old Arcia hit 20 HR in 103 games and posted an above average OPS. Under no scenario should he not be protected and under no scenario should he be traded for pennies on the dollar.

 

If he is traded, just wait for him to be crushing 25-30 HR a year for a smart team like Oakland or the Blue Jays.

And here is where the rub comes in. Some opinions have him with no trade value after this past season, despite what he has shown previously. And by your comments here, you seem to agree with me, that he has talent and worth.

 

IMO, other GM's know there is risk with Arcia, but they also know real steal potential when they see it. I believe he has legitimate trade value in part of a package, should the Twins be inclined. Possibly with Polanco and a pitcher??? Possibly for catching help? Possibly for a high quality RP?

 

What the Twins have to decide is what makes them stronger in the long run; 1) keeping Arcia, believing in his LH bat or 2) deciding other needs outweigh the risk of his blossoming elsewhere. (Especially with a young roster becoming more and more replete with talent)

[gunnarthor]

Arcia put up a .630 OPS in AAA this year.  While a .752 OPS as a 23 yr old two years ago was solid, I think last year was just as important on what the team can expect from him.  My guess is that he'll play winter ball and the team will make a decision on him in ST.  It looks like they really have three choices on him.  

 

1) They could say he's a bench bat with limited defensive versatility behind an OF of Rosario/Buxton/Hicks (maybe Hunter, maybe Kepler, maybe Robinson).

 

2)  They can pencil him to start in LF in April and keep Buxton in the minors.  Give him 6 weeks or so to show that he's not the horrible player he was last year before bringing Buxton up.

 

3) Hope that he puts up some impressive numbers in winter ball and/or ST and trade him for something that might help us, understanding that the return probably won't be much better than the Kevin Jepsen trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Like it or not (and I think it's the right answer), but Arcia goes north with the Twins this spring as a DH/RF.  I think Dave is right that you cannot let that kind of prospective talent go.  He mashed at every step of the way in the minors while being quite a bit younger than his league and showed enough promise last season that he was a popular break out pick this year.  It didn't work.  That happens.  Given his age, we aren't a place where we should be giving up on him.  Given his options situation, he should go north. If I remember right, he was added to the 40 man early.  His story should be a good one for all of us armchair GMs when we talk about adding guys to the 40 man.  He wasn't ready, and now we are in a position where he needs to be kept b/c he was pushed too fast.

[stringer bell]

I have him as the starting right fielder next year, making Torii all the more expendable. If Plouffe were to be traded, it would leave an opportunity for Arcia and Vargas to compete for DH at-bats.

 

I'd like to know what happened last season. I also wonder if the shift from right to left had anything to do with his problems.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

I'd like to know what happened last season. I also wonder if the shift from right to left had anything to do with his problems.

The reports of out ST suggested that Molitor didn't like his work ethic from the get-go.  And there have been rumors about him being more interested in hitting HRs than working on his overall game.  I would doubt that the move to left had any impact on his bat - and he started most of his games in AAA in RF anyway.  

 

Reusse made hints that the Twins couldn't move Arcia at the deadline this year so I do think they are looking to move him.  He has some solid LH pop but that's about it.  He has to hit a lot and his numbers at AAA suggested he lost nearly all his plate discipline.  We'll see how he does in winter ball and ST but I think the Twins are about done with him.  (Of course, I said the same thing about Perkins, too).

[kab21]

 

If I were to shave my head and disguise myself as Terry Ryan, I would do the following prior to RuleV draft:

1) Remove from the 40-man: Thompson, Darnell,  Robinson, Graham, O'Rourke and Fryer.

2) Do NOT sign FA's Hunter, Cotts,  Pelfrey and Duensing.

3) Add to the 40-man: Adam Brett Walker, JT Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Zack Jones, Engelb Vielma, Mason Meloutakis, Luke Bard and Felix Jorge.

4) Don't pick anyone in MLB portion of RuleV draft.

I would keep Graham over most of those prospect RP'ers.

 

Resigning Cotts wouldn't be a bad idea either.

 

The big decisions are Nolasco and Milone.  Nolasco won't be cut but I think he is near the end.  Milone (in arb) is a little expensive for a #5 with good prospects being held back. 

[DaveW]

 

I would keep Graham over most of those prospect RP'ers.

 

Resigning Cotts wouldn't be a bad idea either.

 

The big decisions are Nolasco and Milone.  Nolasco won't be cut but I think he is near the end.  Milone (in arb) is a little expensive for a #5 with good prospects being held back. 

Yeah I would welcome back Cotts or someone similar.

Good point on Graham, and besides, I don't think the Twins kept him on the 25 man roster all season just to cut him loose after the season was over.

 

If you can't find a taker for Gibson/Nolasco, then Milone should be traded for whatever you can get. You are right, he would be getting paid too much to just be the "depth" guy.

 

There are just too many people ahead of him by mid June: Santana, Duffey, Gibson, Hughes, Berrios, May and potentially even Nolasco.

[sane]

 

"Good point on Graham, and besides, I don't think the Twins kept him on the 25 man roster all season just to cut him loose after the season was over"

IMO, now that the Twins (and the other MLB teams) have learned Graham's limitations, he could clear waivers and be signed to a Twins minor league contract. That was not an option until his RuleV status had expired.

 

 

[sane]

 

You're not too high on this Berrios fellow?

Berrios is not eligible for the Rule V draft, so he does not need to be protected.

After the Rule V draft, he can be added to the 40-man roster, and one of the roster players who NEEDED protection can be optioned off the 40-man at that time.

Berrios would need to be protected from RuleV loss next year, but I assume that he will already be on the 40-man (and in the rotation) at that time.

[sane]

 

The elephant in the room, Joe Mauer,

I thought the "elephant in the room" was someone NEVER mentioned EVER!.

Joe would never qualify for that title.

[stringer bell]

Milone is a whole bunch more than just a "depth guy". He doesn't throw hard, but he's effective, and has been since he was called up to the majors. Further, he's 28 IIRC, less than a year older than Gibson. Teams need a lot more than five pitchers. This year only Gibson made it through the entire season without missing a start. The younger guys will get their chance and really that is two or three guys--Duffey, Berrios and perhaps May if you count him as a rotation arm.

[Jham]

Why on Earth would we give up anything to cut ties with Nolasco?  Bring him along next year, and if he's terrible, you cut him and eat the salary.  I suspect with his track record we'll be able to get some use out of him next season.  At least I hope so.

It's hard to say whether Kepler has peaked yet.  Ditto Rosario, Hicks, or Buxton.  Personally, I refuse to trade low on Arcia or Nolasco.  They're worth more with us than anyone will risk to get them.  Rosario is the guy who seems most likely to regress, but I am in the minority that don't see him as a great defensive outfielder.  I think his bat could be valuable in the infield however.

 

Apparently Dozier was hurt.  I'll reluctantly give him another shot because he's not real expensive.  And at his worst, he's a solid defensive 4.  

 

I don't see Vargas outproducing Plouffe by enough to justify having Sano play 3rd every day.  Maybe if we re-signed Hunter.  Deadline trade candidate IMO.

 

Hicks is all over the board.  He covers ground, he's got a rocket, but he's got poor instincts.  I'd look to move him.  

 

In the end, I don't care which young outfielder is dealt, or which arm out of the rotation, I'd say it probably has to be Hughes or Gibson, as long as something is done to improve the few spots we'll realistically be able to upgrade.  

 

 

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Milone is a whole bunch more than just a "depth guy". He doesn't throw hard, but he's effective, and has been since he was called up to the majors. Further, he's 28 IIRC, less than a year older than Gibson. Teams need a lot more than five pitchers. This year only Gibson made it through the entire season without missing a start. The younger guys will get their chance and really that is two or three guys--Duffey, Berrios and perhaps May if you count him as a rotation arm.

 

People continue to under value Milone.  The only real problem is he tends to wear out after 150 innings.  Which can also be valuable if you have  a young, stud pitcher at AAA that you'd like to take a look at in the  MLB.

[sane]

 

The first thing Arcia needs to do is hook up with Berrios, his trainer..He is way to top heavy to be effective even as a DH.

The first thing Arcia needs to do is lose ten pounds off his upper body with a good haircut.

[Linus]

Arcia has more issues in the field than his weight or physique. He has poor instincts and is not athletic. That said I would give him first Crack at DH out of spring training. Yes that means Sano at third and Plouffe is traded.

[ashbury]

Rosario is the guy who seems most likely to regress, but I am in the minority that don't see him as a great defensive outfielder.  I think his bat could be valuable in the infield however.

 

Has anyone here seen Rosario play 2B, back in the minors? I am operating under the assumption that he is "adequate" there, but not fully up to major league standards.

 

With Sano likely to be sub-par on defense at 3B for a season or two, I'd be very leery of throwing Rosario into the mix at 2B as well, if we're talking about trading veterans en masse. At 2B I think I'd rather force-feed Polanco and put up with a sub-par bat until he gets acclimated.

 

Which then leaves us again with what to do with Rosario if you don't think he has the bat to play OF.

 

Man, for all the talk about our pipeline of prospects, we're starting to look like a basketball team with a bunch of "tweeners" - guys too short or not strong enough to play their preferred position but not speedy enough to drop down one position, and with only OK mid-range jump shots but not enough ability to create their own plays or to harass the other team with deadly three-pointers.

[ashbury]

The first thing Arcia needs to do is lose ten pounds off his upper body with a good haircut.

 

"Was that a clown comment I just heard, bro?"