Potential Trades

[dxpavelka]

 

I wouldn't trade both Dozier and Polanco at this point. And, yes, agree that Dozier may be at his highest value to a potential trade partner. But he still wouldn't be most trade aprtner's first choice.

 

Plouffe will draw tire kickers, and Ryan will throw his name out there for some unrealistic returns to fulfill Twins needs. But the Twins are at a disadvantage at the moment. Teams know Plouffe should be available, and the Twins will want to move him for someone between now and the end of next season. They know if the Twins choose to play Sano at third, then Plouffe is without a home.

 

ibson could be apckaged nicely with Plouffe or Dozier to a high end prospect catcher and...someone. That might be the best deals for any of the three above, who are probably the Twins msot valuable tradechips.

 

The Twins also have some outfield depth and could deal Rosario, Hicks or find a taker for Arcia. But they would purely be dealing future promise rather than bonafide results. I like the current depth of Rosario, Hicks, Arcia and Buxton with Kepler and Walker in the wings and possibly making a decision to move someone come 2017, but not 2016.

 

The best bet for Noalsco is that he pitches brilliantly and someone takes him off our hands at the trade deadline (and Milone could be a factor then, too, as he'll be too expensive to bring back AFTER next season. But the further evelopment or usage of May and Meyer will determine moves of that sort.

 

Jepsen has value. Perkins has flattened out, but will always have value as a set-up lefty if he doesn't return to closer status...but not until he pitches a full season pain free again.

Doesn't seem logical to hope someone takes Nolasco "off our hands" if he pitches brilliantly.  That's how you end up in 4th place.

 

[howieramone2]

 

Gibson turns 28 in a couple weeks, I'm not sure I agree with him having more ceiling to show. His career ERA, IP and FIP suggest he is closer to a 4/5 then a 3.

Why would you look at his career numbers when determining where he is today?  Next season will be his 3rd full season, not too old to improve.

[Physics Guy]

 

Gibson turns 28 in a couple weeks, I'm not sure I agree with him having more ceiling to show. His career ERA, IP and FIP suggest he is closer to a 4/5 then a 3.

Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to understand how you evaluate.    Gibson took a step forward this year in his second full season in the majors.    Yes, he is 28 so he may be close to his ceiling.    I think his stats this year indicate he is more likely a 3.

 

League Average Starter 2015:    .258 BAA, .731 OPS, 1.292 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.69 SO/W, 4.14 ERA

Gibson 2015:    .252, .698, 1.289, 6.7, 2.23, 3.84

 

I would consider the average #3 starter on a team to be league average.    It looks to me like he is slightly better that the average #3 now that he's brought his K numbers up this year (although they still aren't great).

[ashbury]

I agree on Gibson. He's a solid 3, can pitch a playoff game, and I believe has more ceiling to show.

I think we've seen his ceiling from the very good games that he's thrown this year and last. The question for me is whether coaching can coax out more of those games in relation to the stinkers.

 

When you're a last place team, a up-and-down guy like Gibson can improve your fortunes.

 

When you're contending for first place, an up-and-down guy will hold you back.

 

Kyle was one of the big reasons for the Twins' strong May 2015. 5 out of 6 starts were really good and even the sixth one kept his team in the game for five innings. But the second half of the season was back to the situation where you never really knew which Gibson you were going to see, game to game.

 

Maybe he's one of those guys where, when he's physically right, he can tap into 100% of his potential, but when something is amiss he just can't find the adjustments. Since nobody goes through a season without twinges and worse, that's worrisome. I don't recall him making excuses, so I just don't know what to think here.

 

So as usual it comes down to talent evaluation by those close to him. If the brain trust feels he's just an adjustment or two away from consistently keeping his team in the game and sometimes dominating, keep him without question. If he's always going to alternate bad games with the good, trade him for value if you find another GM with a more favorable talent evaluation on him.

[stringer bell]

I thought Gibson's troubles stemmed almost totally from command issues. When he was sharp, he threw a lot of "good strikes", when not sharp, he got behind on a lot of batters and threw too many ball down the middle. I like Gibson a lot and think he'll be better next season.

[GP830]

Howabout:

 

Hicks  (Could start in TB's OF)

Vargas (Switch DH and can spell Loney at 1B with real power)

 

for

 

Justin O'Connor (potential long-term option at catcher)

Brad Boxberger (significant BP help)

 

-Then-

 

Nolasco (salary dump for Twins- potential rotation upside for SD)

Polanco (future MI help)

 

For

 

Shields (#2ish rotation starter)

Upton Jr (salary dump for SD, takes over 4th OF spot from Torii)

Kimbrel (serious BP help)

 

Thoughts? 

 

Also, Duensing.

 

 

[RealTwinsFan357]

Howabout:

 

Hicks (Could start in TB's OF)

Vargas (Switch DH and can spell Loney at 1B with real power)

 

for

 

Justin O'Connor (potential long-term option at catcher)

Brad Boxberger (significant BP help)

 

-Then-

 

Nolasco (salary dump for Twins- potential rotation upside for SD)

Polanco (future MI help)

 

For

 

Shields (#2ish rotation starter)

Upton Jr (salary dump for SD, takes over 4th OF spot from Torii)

Kimbrel (serious BP help)

 

Thoughts?

 

Also, Duensing.

I see Nolasco for Upton as a fairly equal trade, which means SD is giving up Shields and Kimbrel for Polanco...I don't see it. I also don't think the first trade is fair to TB...Hicks and Vargas are probably worth only one average level player

[GP830]

Or what about:

 

 

I see Nolasco for Upton as a fairly equal trade, which means SD is giving up Shields and Kimbrel for Polanco...I don't see it. I also don't think the first trade is fair to TB...Hicks and Vargas are probably worth only one average level player

That's all valid. Howabout Nolasco and Polanco for BJ and Kimbrel?

[brvama]

When it comes to trades it's a natural tendancy to over value our assets and think that we can hook a quantified need with those assets. It would be interesting to see what other team blog sites are purposing In trades. Are some of the proposed trades being forwarded on other sites?

[peterb18]

The best bet for Noalsco is that he pitches brilliantly and someone takes him off our hands at the trade deadline (and Milone could be a factor then, too, as he'll be too expensive to bring back AFTER next season. But the further evelopment or usage of May and Meyer will determine moves of that sort.

 

I think somebody in the organization at one time mentioned that a few contracts could be eaten---meaning Noalsco. And I also think that they will pay Milone the going rate. He lends stability to the staff.

[ashbury]

Justin O'Connor (potential long-term option at catcher)

In the Southern League this year he hit about the same as our Stuart Turner. Both were in their age-23 season. Turner's pretty well thought of defensively - I assume O'Conner must be too. In that case, I don't quite see the point of paying a significant price to acquire him.

[SwainZag]

I thought Hicks made great strides at the plate this season.  With Rosario as a good candidate for regression, not knowing if Buxton or Kepler are ready to hit MLB pitching, I really see no reason why the Twins would like to trade him.

[twinsnorth49]

I can't envision many scenarios for Trevor Plouffe being with the Twins next season, I think he, along with a B or C level prospect, represent the best chips for acquiring a catcher in the off season. I don't know how high Plouffe's value is, my guess would not be overly high, but I'm pretty confident it's not going to get any higher.

[RealTwinsFan357]

Or what about:

 

 

That's all valid. Howabout Nolasco and Polanco for BJ and Kimbrel?

That sounds a little bit more fair, I'd at least consider it from both sides

[zchrz]

 

"I think trading Dozier is a bad idea.  Yeah, his value isn't higher than it's going to be, but there isn't a replacement in house that will come close to his production".

 

An outside-the-box replacement for Dozier would be Rosario who was being converted to a second-baseman, until the Twins determined that his promotion possibilities at 2B would be blocked by Dozier. 

That would open up a spot for in the OF for  Kepler, Adam Brett Walker, Arcia or Torii.

 

I think the possibility of this is pretty much gone.  Seemed like the reports of his ability to handle 2nd in the minors were not overly favorable with significant time needed to develop to be major league serviceable.  That time wasn't spent then, and now hes grabbed a major league roster spot with a significant portion of his contribution being his excellent outfield defense.

[beckmt]

Dozier I would only trade if blown over by the offer, Polanco could give us about 80% of what Dozier does now.  Plouffe I regard as gone, probably closer to the end of spring training, now most GM's would look to acquire him in a win deal, a prospect or a suspect and maybe a bullpen piece.  That is way too low for Plouffe.  Outfielders I would keep until spring training, but could see Arcia being dealt as there really is not place for him here long term unless Joe Mauer retires.  Twins have too many DH types, so one of Vargas and Arcia will need to be moved, but neither has a lot of value to bring a player back. 

Only Twins hope is to package 3-4 of these for some value, or send one along with Nolasco for a piece or better prospect.

[old nurse]

Who is going to take Duensing's spot on the roster? Not the role in the bullpen but the player included in every trade that some other GM is going to overpay for

[ThejacKmp]

I'm not as convinced that a Nolasco deal involves the Twins sending out prospects to sweeten the deal.  You just need to find a similar asset.  For instance, I think the Padres would have to at least think about a Nolasco for Shields trade.  While Shields is the better pitcher, he's a year older than Nolasco and is signed for three more years at $63 million with a $16 million club option for year 4.  Nolasco is signed for "only" $24 million over two years with a $13 million club option for year 3. 

 

Who knows what the Padres are going to do now but if they rebuild they may be interested in dumping salary and if they are planning on retooling, Nolasco instead of Shields may give them more room to make the other changes they need to.

 

Once again, this is all conjecture but it seems somewhat sound to me.  Note that I also am not sold on the Twins having the desire to take on a massive Shields contract (they have been reluctant in the past) nor am I convinced that it would be smart to devote resources in this way.  Just a thought.
 

[diehardtwinsfan]

The problem in my opinion is that trading for Shields will be a mistake.  I don't care if SD gives him away.  He's a name, and a name that did poorly in a notoriously pitcher friendly NL ball park.  I'll pass there.

[nicksaviking]

 

I can't envision many scenarios for Trevor Plouffe being with the Twins next season, I think he, along with a B or C level prospect, represent the best chips for acquiring a catcher in the off season. I don't know how high Plouffe's value is, my guess would not be overly high, but I'm pretty confident it's not going to get any higher.

 

His value probably would have been higher last year simply due to the position.  3B was looking like a league-wide black hole last year.  Sano, Bryant and Maikel Franco sure have helped change that thought with their call-ups and that says nothing of huge jumps made by young 3B Donaldson and Arenado.

 

The position got deep, real quick.  No one's fault though, moving Plouffe last year was out of the question because of Sano's injury.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

His value probably would have been higher last year simply due to the position.  3B was looking like a league-wide black hole last year.  Sano, Bryant and Maikel Franco sure have helped change that thought with their call-ups and that says nothing of huge jumps made by young 3B Donaldson and Arenado.

 

The position got deep, real quick.  No one's fault though, moving Plouffe last year was out of the question because of Sano's injury.

I think having the position be deep league wide works in the seller's favor - there will be fewer suitors, but those suitors have more incentive to upgrade to keep up with the league...

[Mike Sixel]

Who is going to take Duensing's spot on the roster? Not the role in the bullpen but the player included in every trade that some other GM is going to overpay for

Isn't that already Polanco?

[Vanimal46]

 

Who is going to take Duensing's spot on the roster? Not the role in the bullpen but the player included in every trade that some other GM is going to overpay for

 

Nolasco has to be a front runner to take this honor. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I think having the position be deep league wide works in the seller's favor - there will be fewer suitors, but those suitors have more incentive to upgrade to keep up with the league...

 

That could be, but now the comps to Plouffe this year make his numbers look much more pedestrian.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I love Dozier and Plouffe, but if we could get a stud pitcher for either one of them I would be all for it.