Who's the next closer after Perkins?

[RJM96]

Glen Perkins' time as the dominant closer of the Minnesota Twins is neearing its end. I would say he MAYBE has one more year of gas left in the tank. There is also the fact that the Twins minor league system is currently stocked with plenty of power arms, something that was very uncommon in the past. I expect the time will come where Molitor is forced to move Perk into more of a setup type until his contract runs out. So who's our guy? Who is the next dominant Twin City closer?

 

The candidates:

 

Nick Burdi

 

Alex Meyer

 

Tyler Jay

 

and some more (second tier) candidates.....

 

J.T. Chargois

 

Trevor May

[gopherman23]

Glen was one of the best relivers in all of baseball in the first half of the year. He gets injured and suddenly he is on his way out? I don't think so.

[sane]

Jepsen?

[sane]

He went from 23 for 23, hurt his neck, and tone month later, he gets euthanized on a blog!

Racehorses get better treatment!

[Danchat]

Overreact much?

 

He was hurt and that led to his ineffectiveness. Once he gets better, he'll go back to being a top-10 closer. 

[sane]

Hey! Hey! Whaddya Say!

Tyler Jay or Trevor May?

Or give the old guy another Day!!!

No freakin' WAY!!

[Twinfan603]

I've seen a few people say it before: We need to let Perkins regain his form and value to kick off next year and then trade him at his peak. With his history, it appears his second half troubles stem from his body not being up to the grind, so he should be good to go next April (for a few months at least).

 

Otherwise, May should get every opportunity to be the good starter he was becoming, and if Tyler Jay isn't given a shot to start then that pick is a complete bust for me. You don't use top-10 picks on stick-thin pitchers hoping to use them 50 innings a year. He has a lot of potential, but it needs to be developed, and developed as a starter.

 

I still have faith in Burdi (even though he had the exact same control problems at Louisville, I'm hoping consistent work at the upper levels is soon to come) and I think with Meyer's pros and cons developing into a ++late inning asset is in his wheelhouse. Then, considering all the other college power arms we've taken over the past 2 or 3 years in the draft, and statistically at least 1 of them will hit and contribute.

[Thrylos]

 

Glen was one of the best relivers in all of baseball in the first half of the year. He gets injured and suddenly he is on his way out? I don't think so.

 

Let's qualify that "one of best relievers".  Here are some of Perkins' 1st half stats and their ranking among MLB relievers in parenthesis.

 

 

Perkins 1st Half:  25.2% K% (56th), 2.32 FIP (16th) , 3.41 xFIP (51st), 0.83 WHIP (with .240 BABIP) (4th) Normalized for .290 BABIP (29th),

 

This averages out as one of the 30-40 best or so relievers.  Great for a set up position, but not a closer in a contender, which is where Perkins belongs.   Plus he is going to be 33, and his fastball and slider are 2-3 mph off their peak and getting hitable.

 

Definitely an improvement over O'Rourke, but that should be his job.

[RJM96]

On his way out as our closer? Yes. I think so. I would absolutely love to see this guy succeed as much as anyone.

 

On his way out as a very good Twins reliever?

No.

 

I just feel like a year or two from now, we could be in a very similar situation to the one that we are in with Jepsen right now. When Nick Burdi (or other, see above) comes in and racks up 6-7 saves (striking out the side with 102 mph fastballs) while Perkins is injured, and Perk comes back and struggles, it would only make sense. Perkins could be a very good 7th or 8th inning guy.

[Kwak]

Everybody is "on his way out"--this is an empty statement.  Hopefully, the Twins soon promote someone better than Perkins, so huge salary dollars aren't allocated to a one-inning pitcher.

[Squirrel]

Come on, people ... don't start nipping at every post and poster because it's not to your liking. The OP was a serious question ... who is next in line when Perkins is really out? It's a legitimate discussion. Don't start piling on with defensiveness and nonsense ... it gets old.

[gopherman23]

Let's qualify that "one of best relievers". Here are some of Perkins' 1st half stats and their ranking among MLB relievers in parenthesis.

 

 

Perkins 1st Half: 25.2% K% (56th), 2.32 FIP (16th) , 3.41 xFIP (51st), 0.83 WHIP (with .240 BABIP) (4th) Normalized for .290 BABIP (29th),

 

This averages out as one of the 30-40 best or so relievers. Great for a set up position, but not a closer in a contender, which is where Perkins belongs. Plus he is going to be 33, and his fastball and slider are 2-3 mph off their peak and getting hitable.

 

Definitely an improvement over O'Rourke, but that should be his job.

You can use any sort of metric and mold it to your point, but the reality is Perkins had the 7th best ERA, was tied for 6th among WAR for all relievers, and he didn't blow a ****ing save the entire first half. Yeah, he actually did those things.

[Hrbowski]

Nick Burdi, in maybe five years.

[wickedslider]

I think currently you have to look at Jepson and perhaps May as your closer depending on matchups, who walks the fewest guys and has a better chance of inducing ground balls and or strike outs. Next year I think Perkins returns to his role. If he is incompetent then I think you have to look to Jepson. Though we have some good young arms in the minors I am not sure I'd trust them in high leverage situations on a team that should compete for the playoffs. I'd prefer that they gain their experience in lesser roles in the BP and see what becomes of them. I haven't given up on May as a starter either. Right now we are using a shotgun approach with our starters by throwing them at a wall and seeing who sticks. Gibson has taken a pretty big step backwards from earlier. Pelfrey phhhht. Same with Santana. Duffy has promise thoug only as a 4-5 guy just as Milone is. So having May as a starter would boost our SP which needs help badly. So Jepson/May this year, Perkins/Jepson next year, an experienced young stud the year after that.

[HitInAPinch]

I never really been all that big on the single closer model.  That an the really cheap saves made available by baseball rules.   I think it's pretty clear that Perkins has been burning out his body in the 1st half of the season for a couple years now.  He's 32yrs old, so, yeah the Twins need to figure this out. 

Co-closers:  Jepson and Perkins.  Maybe that gets the Twins 2-3 years to get a few relievers ready.

[Thrylos]

 

You can use any sort of metric and mold it to your point, but the reality is Perkins had the 7th best ERA, was tied for 6th among WAR for all relievers, and he didn't blow a ****ing save the entire first half. Yeah, he actually did those things.

 

Thanks for using ERA and BS as stats....   

Unfortunately, that's what Ryan is using

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Thanks for using ERA and BS as stats....   

Unfortunately, that's what Ryan is using

Agree with this. I do get that end results are all that matter, by themselves. The old, it was pretty, but got the job done. Kind of how the Twins were winning in May, or how the starting rotation was not giving up runs in the first half. Bad teams can go on winning streaks with poor stats to back it up, as staring pitchers like Pelrfrey can do the same for a stretch, as closers can get the job done without being shutdown dominant for most of a season even.

 

However, I think that Perkins is closer material. I will give that he likely isn't elite closer, or upper-teir dominant, but he could be a closer on several teams. On the other hand, my gut tells me that May would be a better closer than healthy Perkins. I would rather have Perkins over Jepsen. I would like Jepsen and Perkins as 7th/8th inning guys depending on who is coming up that inning, and May to close it out. Personal opinion there, but like Perkins, and have no problem rolling with him if he's healthy and effective. 

 

I also asumed that the OP was just wanting discussion on who is next in line, if and only if Perkins never regains his health or effectiveness.

 

 

[gopherman23]

Thanks for using ERA and BS as stats....

Unfortunately, that's what Ryan is using

I'm only stating facts. His job is to come in and close games, and he was perfect over the first half. If you think FIP is some sort of god stat you are mistaken. It has its flaws as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Perkins appears to be on the decline... And I'm okay with that. A "closer" only needs to be decent, not amazing. A flex 7/8th inning guy who is amazing will win more ball games.

 

Eddie Guardado was a good closer. Why? Because he could routinely get three outs while giving up less than two runs.

 

The best guy in the bullpen should be the guy who comes into a game in the seventh inning with one out and two men on base. As long as Perkins can get guys out at an acceptable clip, he can remain in the "closer" role.

[Riverbrian]

 

Perkins appears to be on the decline... And I'm okay with that. A "closer" only needs to be decent, not amazing. A flex 7/8th inning guy who is amazing will win more ball games.

Eddie Guardado was a good closer. Why? Because he could routinely get three outs while giving up less than two runs.

The best guy in the bullpen should be the guy who comes into a game in the seventh inning with one out and two men on base. As long as Perkins can get guys out at an acceptable clip, he can remain in the "closer" role.

 

I kinda agree with this but I'll take it a step further. If you are in Championship Contention. I think you need at least 3 arms with closer like ability and I don't care who pitches the 9th or the 7th. I'd like to have faith in all of them.

 

It feels a lot better right now with Jepsen and May then it did in July when we didn't have Jepsen and May in the pen. If Perkins would have gotten hurt on July 1st... Who would have been the next in line for July. Boyer? Fien?  

 

To answer the original question. I don't know... But May looks damn good in the Pen. He could be a closer superstar in the future.  I hear Burdi can throw hard and Meyer looks like he'll end up in the bullpen so maybe he can improve mechanically enough to be something but I don't know what their ETA is.

 

I'll just say this... If this team is turning a corner and it looks like it might be. Don't be satisfied with Perkins Jepsen and May. Let's bring in someone with chops in the off season as well. 

[TwinsCD]

When I was in college (back around the time the pyramids were built), I had a friend who often said when we'd play sports video games (hieroglyphic graphics!!) that "stats are for losers".  To me, the only 'stat' that means anything for a closer is blown saves.  Perk was perfect in the first half.  That's effectiveness.  But I remember having an 'oh oh' moment when he gave up the triple to Braun in the ASG and gave up the run.  He had been untouchable and now he got dented.  Then he comes out the next week and blows 2 saves and loses a game.  Yes, he's injured and now, ineffective and difficult to be trusted.  When healthy, keep riding him out.  However, I think the model that KC used last year of getting to the 7th inning and then running out 3 power arms to finish off the game can be used by the Twins in the near future if these power arms in the system become ready.  A Burdi-Meyer-May final 3 innings could sound pretty daunting.  But I don't care what the other numbers say, if you can't get the job done on a regular basis, you shouldn't be closing.  Right now, Perk is not healthy and shouldn't be closing.  Jepsen was incredibly shaky last night but got the job done...trot him out there again today when they have the lead in the 9th.

[Jham]

I think the closer position more than any other demonstrates the fascinating juxtaposition between predictive stats, statistical results, and the eye test.  

 

Great points by most everyone on this blog.  Fact of the matter is that Perkins has worn down for 2 years straight under a normal work load.  His velocity and K% was down all year despite getting great results for the first half of the season.  Is the second half luck catching up with him?  A change in his approach or hitter awareness?  Lack of confidence after a shaky All-Star Game?

 

His pitch tracking, shown somewhere in this blog awhile back, showed his slider was starting to elevate.  Whether this is soreness, fatigue, or nerves, I have no idea.

 

Personally, I think he was making up for his decline with fantastic location this spring.  As the season wore on, his location started to go.  I don't think we can expect his velo to come up dramatically, and his slider is flattening out.  He can still be elite if he can peg his spots, but that's still a pretty big if.

 

It did seem like his confidence took a hit, especially after A-Rod and the Yanks got him.  He seems to take blown saves harder than many other elite closers.  His mental toughness appears strong, but not unshakeable.

 

Regarding closers in general, I think a good one gives you a strong psychological advantage.  It helps define roles for other arms, and it causes the opposing team to press even more when trailing late.  We can argue about predicting success based on non-metric based factors, but I enjoy looking at them because they make the game more interesting to follow for me.  It even makes statistical analysis more interesting for me.  Trying to figure out why someone is outperforming or under-performing their metrics is one of the most enjoyable parts of following Twinsdaily.  Cue Glen Perkins, and Trevor May, our future closer whose firey nature, use of adrenaline, and success since moving to the pen make him a natural fit.  

[jimbo92107]

 

I think the closer position more than any other demonstrates the fascinating juxtaposition between predictive stats, statistical results, and the eye test.  

 

Great points by most everyone on this blog.  Fact of the matter is that Perkins has worn down for 2 years straight under a normal work load.  His velocity and K% was down all year despite getting great results for the first half of the season.  Is the second half luck catching up with him?  A change in his approach or hitter awareness?  Lack of confidence after a shaky All-Star Game?

 

His pitch tracking, shown somewhere in this blog awhile back, showed his slider was starting to elevate.  Whether this is soreness, fatigue, or nerves, I have no idea.

 

Personally, I think he was making up for his decline with fantastic location this spring.  As the season wore on, his location started to go.  I don't think we can expect his velo to come up dramatically, and his slider is flattening out.  He can still be elite if he can peg his spots, but that's still a pretty big if.

 

It did seem like his confidence took a hit, especially after A-Rod and the Yanks got him.  He seems to take blown saves harder than many other elite closers.  His mental toughness appears strong, but not unshakeable.

 

Regarding closers in general, I think a good one gives you a strong psychological advantage.  It helps define roles for other arms, and it causes the opposing team to press even more when trailing late.  We can argue about predicting success based on non-metric based factors, but I enjoy looking at them because they make the game more interesting to follow for me.  It even makes statistical analysis more interesting for me.  Trying to figure out why someone is outperforming or under-performing their metrics is one of the most enjoyable parts of following Twinsdaily.  Cue Glen Perkins, and Trevor May, our future closer whose firey nature, use of adrenaline, and success since moving to the pen make him a natural fit.  

Good observations, except I don't think Perk's decline has anything to do with mental toughness. It's all about breaking down physically from age and injury.

 

Remember, Glen Perkins was never a power pitcher as a starter. He added about 6 mph to his formerly 90- to 91mph heater only after he became a closer, combined with pinpoint control and initially a wipeout slider that was almost as devastating as Liriano's. He was Joe Nathan left handed.

 

Unfortunately, although Perk's smooth arm action has saved him from elbow and shoulder break down, other parts have begun to get injured from throwing a baseball in the mid-90's or throwing a high-velocity slider. He has reached his physical limit of enduring that stress with his back, his neck and other parts. Even if he comes back next season, he simply won't be as dominant as a closer.

 

The Twins could go many ways next season, but they have to start moving on from Perkins as their main closer. He could be part of a closer by committee, or be a less-used setup man or middle reliever. Nick Burdi will get a lot of attention next spring, but he'll be a rookie. The team could bring Burdi up and mix him with Perk and Jepsen for a while, or they could go out and buy a closer.

 

Whatever way the team goes, the closer position is no longer a certainty. That was the kind of special deal that doesn't last forever. My hat's off to Glen Perkins, one of the greatest closers I've seen.

[SwainZag]

 

I never really been all that big on the single closer model.  That an the really cheap saves made available by baseball rules.   I think it's pretty clear that Perkins has been burning out his body in the 1st half of the season for a couple years now.  He's 32yrs old, so, yeah the Twins need to figure this out. 

Co-closers:  Jepson and Perkins.  Maybe that gets the Twins 2-3 years to get a few relievers ready.

 

With baseball metrics being used and such advanced stats that we are using now, I am really surprised that teams aren't moving to a "non-closer" type bullpen.  I know when you have completely dominant arms it makes sense to have them in closer out games, but I'd rather see a team play matchups, splits, use your best RH option against their best right handed hitter in the 8th inning of a 1 run game, and so on.  

[TheLeviathan]

With baseball metrics being used and such advanced stats that we are using now, I am really surprised that teams aren't moving to a "non-closer" type bullpen.  I know when you have completely dominant arms it makes sense to have them in closer out games, but I'd rather see a team play matchups, splits, use your best RH option against their best right handed hitter in the 8th inning of a 1 run game, and so on.

 

I think we are still at the rubber meets the road with that. Players like having defined roles and managers like it too. There may even be something to be said for that feeling that stats can't capture. Either way I think that's the stumbling block.

[USAFChief]

I think we are still at the rubber meets the road with that. Players like having defined roles and managers like it too. There may even be something to be said for that feeling that stats can't capture. Either way I think that's the stumbling block.

it's also difficult to know when those specific situationsituation are going to occur, so having semi defined roes allows for easier and more reliable warm ups. I often see people asking for a "firemen" role, but how do you actually pull that off without having that pitcher ready to go from the 7th inning on?

[Rosterman]

Last night, when Jepsen came in for the save, I was going "Why not give May a tryout!' Yes, I would love to see May become a starter. Unlike names from the past (Fast Eddie, Perk, Hawkins), he hasn't flamed out yet bigtime. So the potential is still there. But give the guy some chances this year of Perk is down. Let's see what happens. Especially if you have more than a single run lead.

 

Yes, Jepsen is building up some worth (watch out arbitration time). But the Twins don't have anyone right now that is a sure bet. As we have seen, great numbers at Rochester don't necessarily translate into perfection at the majors (Slama in the past, Tonkin and Achter now).

 

Perkins, as long as he can throw reasonably well, will have as long as a career as he wants in the majors. He may not be the closer, but he will be that go-to guy when the closer needs to rest. As a lefty, he can always pitch situational. 

 

But no one should write him off quite yet.

 

But, still, wonder who the Twins think they have in the pipeline?