Ryan's Bullpen

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This thread ignores the fact that before yesterday's bad outing, going back to July 30, Fien had made 19 appearances, pitched 21 innings, and allowed a whopping 3 runs on 16 hits, striking out 12 and walking 1.

 

But now he's rubbish.

 

Are we going to have these threads every time a Twin has a bad game?

The issue around Fien is not just "a bad game".  Even in that cherry-picked sample, that's a 5.1 K/9. Counting on that guy to be one of your top setup men in a September pennant race is a terrible plan.

[Steve Lein]

 

The bullpen was ok the first half but most could tell it was smoke and mirrors, which is what happens when you have a bunch of guys with poor k rates and poor k/Bob ratios.

 

They were okay in the first half because the starters were pitching well and Perkins was lights out. But this bullpen as a whole, besides August, was nowhere near even mediocre, and they were borderline mediocre in August:

 

In April, the Twins bullpen ranked 23rd in ERA, 26th in FIP, and 30th (last) in xFIP.

 

May: 14th, 21st, and 22nd.

 

June: 27th. 27th, and 28th.

 

July: 23rd, 24th, and 28th.

 

August: 16th, 14th, 21st.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

The Twins could still call up Michael Bowden from Rochester and JT Chargois from Chattanooga.

Bowden 10-5W-L, 2.68ERA, 117 IP, 1.12WHIP; started and relieved in AAA, 6 yrs/133Innings. in MLB.

Former 1st round pick of Red Sox In 2005...Now 28-yrs-old.

 

Chargois has only pitched 30 innings this year.; 2.93 ERA, Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2012.

Likely to be on 40-man-roster after season anyway.

 

Remember, if you call those guys up, they might hurt their arms.

 

[nicksaviking]

The only solution on the current roster is to give Tonkin Fein's more high leverage spots.  Tonkin's had some rocky moments but he throws harder and has a MiLB track record of missing bats.  For some reason he gets no leash at the MLB level, every time he has a bad outing they send him right back to Rochester, not sure why, but he seems to be the goat.

 

But it's still not too late to go fishing in the minors.  I agree with those that said they should consider Chargois, also consider calling up Brandon Peterson, Alex Wimmer, who is now a reliever and missing some bats and bring up Alex Meyer.  I know the organization has huge issues with inconsistant control, but there are plenty of times when you aboslutely, positively need a strikeout.  Bring a couple of these guys up, even if they'll only be pitching to one or two batters.  There are times in a game where a stikeout is needed and a walk is barely a concern.  The team often likes to use these guys in mop-up or long relief roles which is the wrong time to use them.  Use them in short doses where their flaws have less of a chance to compile.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I'm certainly not confident in our bullpen, but I'm at a loss to see any reasonable moves TR and PM should or could have made to improve the situation.

Don't say trade for established relievers outside the organization.

 

.......

 

Now that we have shown everyone that we are a team on the rise it will be easier for TR to bring in better relievers than Thompson or Boyer.

 

I am saying trade for relievers outside the organization. That statement makes no sense - isn't that what Ryan did anyway with Jepsen and Cotts?  Clippard went to the Mets for an A ball arm of arguable potential. That trade has worked out quite well.   

 

I hope your assumption is right, that Ryan will now bid on quality bullpen guys this offseason like a Clippard or O'Day. I'd rather have a single one of those guys than 2 or 3 Boyers and Duensings, for about the same price. Even better if you develop your own young players to fill these roles for league minimum. We'll see.

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

 

The issue around Fien is not just "a bad game".  Even in that cherry-picked sample, that's a 5.1 K/9. Counting on that guy to be one of your top setup men in a September pennant race is a terrible plan.

Cherry picked? It would be if they were stats from May. Since when is recent form irrelevant?

 

I wasn't aware that you had to strike out more than 5 per nine innings to be an effective set-up guy either.

 

Agree to disagree I guess....

[sane]

Fien's WHIP is 2nd best on team LEADING Perkins and trailing only Jepson.

I really don't care HOW you get outs.

If you start an inning, outs are outs.

You don't need K's, if your WHIP is just over 1.0.

[sane]

Fien has 29K, 5BB, 1.08WHIP.

WHIP is better than Perkin's, trailing only Jepson on current staff.

[howieramone2]

 

The only solution on the current roster is to give Tonkin Fein's more high leverage spots.  Tonkin's had some rocky moments but he throws harder and has a MiLB track record of missing bats.  For some reason he gets no leash at the MLB level, every time he has a bad outing they send him right back to Rochester, not sure why, but he seems to be the goat.

 

But it's still not too late to go fishing in the minors.  I agree with those that said they should consider Chargois, also consider calling up Brandon Peterson, Alex Wimmer, who is now a reliever and missing some bats and bring up Alex Meyer.  I know the organization has huge issues with inconsistant control, but there are plenty of times when you aboslutely, positively need a strikeout.  Bring a couple of these guys up, even if they'll only be pitching to one or two batters.  There are times in a game where a stikeout is needed and a walk is barely a concern.  The team often likes to use these guys in mop-up or long relief roles which is the wrong time to use them.  Use them in short doses where their flaws have less of a chance to compile.

They are not going to throw bodies against the wall to see what sticks. We are now a team in the hunt and are not going to hold open auditions for shiny new things.

[old nurse]

Of the high k/9 relievers traded Lowe, having a career year,  cost Tronto a pair of near 30 level ranking prospects for a rental, Diekman went with Hamels, Joe Blanton is doing well as a reliever but might have made a few TD keyboards melt, Broxton the same. There were not a lot of high strikeout relievers moved. You can hope for the Twins to make a deal, but other teams  are not giving up decent relievers

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wasn't aware that you had to strike out more than 5 per nine innings to be an effective set-up guy either.

 

Agree to disagree I guess....

Take a look at reliever leaderboards. 5 K/9 just isn't a recipe for sustaining success. I didn't think that was that controversial.

[DaveW]

It isn't a big deal if you have a guy or two in the pen with 5 k/9 numbers, it's a really big deal when your entire bullpen sans a guy or two is entirely composed of those types. The Twins have some of the worst inherited runners scoring % in the game, the only way to ensure that runners don't score is by striking out the guy at the dish.

 

I mean, I guess Fien hasn't been THAT bad this year, but he shouldn't be the guy we are turning too in a one run game in the 7th.

[DaveW]

 

Of the high k/9 relievers traded Lowe, having a career year,  cost Tronto a pair of near 30 level ranking prospects for a rental, Diekman went with Hamels, Joe Blanton is doing well as a reliever but might have made a few TD keyboards melt, Broxton the same. There were not a lot of high strikeout relievers moved. You can hope for the Twins to make a deal, but other teams  are not giving up decent relievers

Clippard? Hawkins? Papelbon? K-Rod? That dude from the Padres who's name I am spacing on. There were plenty of good RP traded (for not much in return), and there were plenty more available on the market.

[jimmer]

 

It isn't a big deal if you have a guy or two in the pen with 5 k/9 numbers, it's a really big deal when your entire bullpen sans a guy or two is entirely composed of those types. The Twins have some of the worst inherited runners scoring % in the game, the only way to ensure that runners don't score is by striking out the guy at the dish.

 

I mean, I guess Fien hasn't been THAT bad this year, but he shouldn't be the guy we are turning too in a one run game in the 7th.

For Fein, 80% of plate appearances against end up with ball in play.  Highest on the team.

 

Only 2 teams in the majors have allowed a higher % of inherited runners to score and no team has allowed more actual inherited runners to score.

[DaveW]

The only AL two bullpens that are worse (IMO) then the Twins this year are the Tigers and Mariners....good teams, with good hitting and good SP whose bullpens literally SANK them both. Now, the Twins haven't been AS bad (Perkins is a big reason why), but the Tigers and Mariners also have something in common... It really shouldn't be this hard to build a halfway decent bullpen. Especially when you have the money and farm system (trade or promotion) that the Twins have.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

For Fein, 80% of plate appearances against end up with ball in play. Highest on the team.

 

Only 2 teams in the majors have allowed a higher % of inherited runners to score and no team has allowed more actual inherited runners to score.

That is the problem with not being able to strike guys out in the bullpen! No, all outs AREN'T equal. If you come in the game, with one out and a guy on third, anything but strikeout off the bat will likely score the runner. If there is runners in scoring position and less than two outs, it seems everyone other than May and Jepsen will give up that run.

 

Walks don't equal hits either, so whip is not all equal. A walk won't advance a runner more than once base, where a single can do that, and of course extra base hits will. Take two pitchers with the same whip, and I'll take the guy with the higher k% and higher bb%, opposed to the guy who is more likely to give up more total basses and not strike guys out, add in that guys that don't strike guys out will have more errors behind hem due to the greater sample size of fielding chances....they should count against the pitcher to.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

That is the problem with not being able to strike guys out in the bullpen! No, all outs AREN'T equal. If you come in the game, with one out and a guy on third, anything but strikeout off the bat will likely score the runner. If there is runners in scoring position and less than two outs, it seems everyone other than May and Jepsen will give up that run.

Walks don't equal hits either, so whip is not all equal. A walk won't advance a runner more than once base, where a single can do that, and of course extra base hits will. Take two pitchers with the same whip, and I'll take the guy with the higher k% and higher bb%, opposed to the guy who is more likely to give up more total basses and not strike guys out, add in that guys that don't strike guys out will have more errors behind hem due to the greater sample size of fielding chances....they should count against the pitcher to.

Yep. Bring up a guy like Meyer or Burdi, let him load the bases on walks, and then strike out the side. Net result: zero runs. Doesn't quite work that way of course, but I agree with what you are saying. 

 

Pelfrey almost did that last night, but couldn't quite get that final strikeout pitch, and gave up the grand salami instead. Oh wait, this is the bullpen thread, and Pelfrey is a starter. I'll see myself out.

 

 

 

 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Yep. Bring up a guy like Meyer or Burdi, let him load the bases on walks, and then strike out the side. Net result: zero runs. Doesn't quite work that way of course, but I agree with what you are saying. 

 

Pelfrey almost did that last night, but couldn't quite get that final strikeout pitch, and gave up the grand salami instead. Oh wait, this is the bullpen thread, and Pelfrey is a starter. I'll see myself out.

...And of course a high k and bb guy can blow up, just as a low k and bb ground ball machine can give up a ton of hits. Just saying in a vacuum, giving the choice between the two types, with equal whips....I'll take the first guy every time for my bullpen, and likely for the rotation too.

 

On Pelfrey, while you mention him, I don't understand the fascination of resigning him for the bullpen. I have even seen guys mention him as an 8th inning guy. He is the anti late innings type of guy. He can't strike anyone out, even though he throws harder than anyone else in the rotation. I don't get that. Is he just overly predictable, does have have no out pitch? How is he so easily hittable? 

[DaveW]

I wouldn't resign him to be in the pen. I would just stick him there now, because he isn't good in the rotation and can cause less damage in the pen.

[DaveW]

Another day, another meltdown by the Bullpen That Ryan Built.

[drock2190]

 

Another day, another meltdown by the Bullpen That Ryan Built.

 

Yesterday was pretty much a meltdown too by Jepsen. I trust no one in this pen. Some just slightly more then others.

[drjim]

I blame Trevor May much, much more than I blame Ryan.

[twinsnorth49]

Another day, another meltdown by the Bullpen That Ryan Built.

Dave, c'mon, the right guy was on the mound at the time. What's your issue with May? He had a rough outing, gonna happen, you know that.

[sane]

Michael Bowden just finished his Rochester season: 11-5 W-L; 2.68 ERA; 1.15 WHIP;

7.24 K/9IP: If the Twins don't bring him to MLB, he will be in another organization,SOON! (either this season, or next season)

[TheLeviathan]

Even your best relievers screw up sometimes.  It's the nature of pretty much every major league bullpen (except for the Royals, and even they aren't perfect)

[Major League Ready]

 

Dave, c'mon, the right guy was on the mound at the time. What's your issue with May? He had a rough outing, gonna happen, you know that.

For anyone that did not watch the game on Fox North, Jack Morris talked about the need for a young team to go through these situations and learn.  Way too many people here think this team should respond like a team of veterans.  That's just not how it works.  It's also not exactly critical thinking when the answer for everything is that it is the GMs fault. 

[sane]

It's also not exactly critical thinking when the answer for everything is that it is the GMs fault.

A year ago "the answer for everything" was that it is Gardy and Anderson's fault.

People just want simple solutions.

[mikelink45]

I am assuming that the fans and all us making comments are absolutely clueless because the baseball wizards sure do not have the same take we do.  My god Ryan change your mind and bring in Berrios and Dean - you are allowed to change - we promise not to remind you that you did (just kidding).

[DaveW]

Dave, c'mon, the right guy was on the mound at the time. What's your issue with May? He had a rough outing, gonna happen, you know that.

no issue with May, but when he came out and couldn't throw a strike, he should have been pulled quickly, but because the Twins have him and Jepsen as the only two current "legit" relievers they had to keep him in the game and thus hung him out to dry. Also, May should still be a starter, but that is another topic for another thread etc

[DaveW]

Dave, c'mon, the right guy was on the mound at the time. What's your issue with May? He had a rough outing, gonna happen, you know that.

also, Duffey should

Have been given a chance to get out of the inning. The 3 runs given up in the 8th also didn't help matters, took a 2 run game and once again put it out of reach.