Sano, Mauer, and Plouffe

Major League Ready · August 8, 2015

I am not sure what this fascination is with trading away very good MLB starters (Dozier and Plouffe) because the Twins have some top 100ish prospects (Kepler, Polanco, etc...) that might be blocked or might play elsewhere. This kind of depth is a good thing to have for a winning ballclub.

It is pretty common for teams to trade established players when they have prospects that they have a lot of confidence in ready to take their place. Partly because its a business and those 1st 3 years are inexpensive but it also frees up payroll for other acquisitions. It can also be a great way to fill another hole. I have no problem with trading Plouffe for a ML ready C or SS with a high ceiling if Sano can play 3rd. Dozier is a little different story. It would have to be a great return and I would first like to see if Polanco can stick at SS.

Sano is more valuable if he is at 1B vs DH and far more valuable if capable of playing an average 3B vs DH. I would think Kepler would be more valuable in the OF vs 1B so the question is not Kepler vs Plouffe. If it were, I still would not have a problem with it because Kepler looks like he is going to be a better than Plouffe.

I would give Mauer until the Super 2 date or a little later to rebound. If he does not, I play the best players. That's probably Sano, Plouffe, and either Arcia of Vargas. At some point next year I would hope the OF duties to be shared by Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, and either Arcia or a 5th outfielder type and let that situation sort itself out. We trade Hicks if Kepler proves himself at the ML level and Rosario maintains or improves his current play. Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario is a very nice outfield.

Riverbrian · August 8, 2015

In my 2016 Lineup... Mauer would bat in the #2 Hole. I still think he is near perfect as a #2 hitter.

However... If he continues with his current production in 2016. He'd sit a little more than he has in the past. Same for Plouffe and Sano or anybody. Providing we have a young players who can spell him(them)... IE Kepler or Arcia or Walker.

I'm just not a "keep playing players who are struggling waiting for them to come out of it" guy.

So... If Mauer... Plouffe and Sano are regulars... And Buxton Hicks and Rosario (or Hunter) are locking down the OF.

I have no problem with Vargas and Arcia (or Hunter) on the bench and pinch hitting or taking an extended run in the lineup if Mauer is hitting .150 over his past 15 games.

That's how I would roll.

Ideally... In my world... Having a full roster of guys who can produce is a good problem to have and not a logistical problem if you manage them right.

mudcat14 · August 8, 2015

Personally, I would trade Plouffe & Nolasco to San Diego for Shields & Hedges. SoCal natives, Trevor & Ricky will cost roughly $40mil over the next two seasons, while Shields could reach $80mil over the next 4 years. Much has been posted about Shields 'Bad' contract. But the fact is, this will be his 9th consecutive 200+ inning season more often than not as the #1 starter. His numbers have been and still are very solid and he has been extremely consistent. Hedges has the potential to compete for the starting gig next spring, but poses zero financial risk.

RJM96 · August 8, 2015

Personally, I would trade Plouffe & Nolasco to San Diego for Shields & Hedges. SoCal natives, Trevor & Ricky will cost roughly $40mil over the next two seasons, while Shields could reach $80mil over the next 4 years. Much has been posted about Shields 'Bad' contract. But the fact is, this will be his 9th consecutive 200+ inning season more often than not as the #1 starter. His numbers have been and still are very solid and he has been extremely consistent. Hedges has the potential to compete for the starting gig next spring, but poses zero financial risk.

I absolutely love this trade but I have trouble believing San Diego would be anywhere close to accepting it.

Jham · August 8, 2015

I absolutely love this trade but I have trouble believing San Diego would be anywhere close to accepting it.

0.0% is more likely. San Diego showed their reluctance to deal pieces that could help them last year. They were built to compete this year. If they traded Shields, it would be to either make their team better, or to get a significant prospect in return. I suggested something like Berrios + x for Shields for the same reason I would have been ok with trading for Tulo. Shields provides an immediate upgrade for at least a couple years. Berrios ceiling is probably right around a Shields if he ever gets to that point. I'm not necessarily interested in seeing Berrios struggle through his rookie year and league adjustments while the rest of the rotation will be gone by the time he gets good. Everyone says we have too many 3/4 starters which is pretty much what Berrios figures to be, at least for a couple seasons. If we're going to try to make a run next year, a 1/2 type at the front will probably be necessary once we got into the playoffs.

spinowner · August 8, 2015

I'm in the camp advocating installing Sano as the full-time 3B and trading Plouffe for the best return Ryan can get. I'd hope for a good catcher or catching prospect but it might require a multi-player or multi-team deal to accomplish that.

kab21 · August 8, 2015

It is pretty common for teams to trade established players when they have prospects that they have a lot of confidence in ready to take their place.

Actually it isn't. It is common for rebuilding teams to trade veterans and replace them with prospects. It is common for low payroll teams to trade veterans and replace them with prospects. It is also common for contending teams to trade prospects to upgrade the MLB roster. I really, really hope that the Twins are in the 3rd category and not the first two any longer.

But you were missing the bigger picture. Why do the Twins have to trade all of the depth that they have? Good teams like the Cardinals suffer an injury and they are able to call up a decent prospect or shift the roster around to play a decent replacement. If the Twins trade Plouffe and/or Kepler then they are one step away from playing Eduardo Nunez or Wilkin Ramirez because the depth was traded away. The same thing goes for SP. The team shouldn't be trading anyone to open a spot for Berrios if we are going to be calling up a Kris Johnson or Yohan Pino type if one pitcher gets injured or struggles. Depth is good and it is what winning teams have.

I also think that we are prematurely considering which prospects have succeeded. Is Hicks really an MLB starter after 1.5 hot months where he still can't hit RHP? Rosario has had a nice season but the team better have plan B ready (like Kepler) next year. Buxton is great but again he hasn't proven anything most all the ability to stay healthy. Depth is good. I would not be concerned about Kepler getting a chance when he has 3 question marks ahead of him.

Trading Dozier is preposterous. Especially when the goal is to replace him with Polanco because the gap wouldn't be that big the first year and by 2018 Polanco will probably be better. Perhaps these people haven't seen Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and any other prospect that dreadfully failed their 1st or 2nd time around. Why are we trading a legit All Star for a question mark? Can we stop rebuilding at some point?

mudcat14 · August 8, 2015

I absolutely love this trade but I have trouble believing San Diego would be anywhere close to accepting it.

You may be right, but there were reports that the Pad's were desperate to unload salary at the deadline. Of course, none of them came to fruition. The trade as proposed is pretty much a wash for them financially for the first 2 years, but saves them $40mil over years 3 & 4. Plouffe would solve their 3B woes for a couple seasons anyway, while a healthy Nolasco (who knows?) could at least account for Shields innings.

I don't know. Maybe you throw in a non Top 10 prospect or something to get it done. Regardless, adding Shields might be the bold type move we need for 2016, to keep things going forward.

stringer bell · August 8, 2015

I remember when Eddie Murray broke in with the Orioles. He was primarily the DH, while a veteran (Lee May?) played first primarily. Gradually, Eddie took over. The comparison isn't exact, but I would propose that Sano start about half of the games at third, with Mauer getting plenty of days off and Plouffe manning first in those days. Injuries also happen and the Twins would have coverage in such an event.

mudcat14 · August 8, 2015

Trading Dozier is preposterous. Especially when the goal is to replace him with Polanco because the gap wouldn't be that big the first year and by 2018 Polanco will probably be better. Perhaps these people haven't seen Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and any other prospect that dreadfully failed their 1st or 2nd time around. Why are we trading a legit All Star for a question mark? Can we stop rebuilding at some point?

I certainly am not in the 'Trade Dozier' camp any longer. But doing so for the right return is far from preposterous. Numerous HR's, especially in the clutch have skewed his value upward among Twins fans. I'm not sure the rest of the league even shares that sentiment. Brian will finish the season with over 2,000 career AB's and a lifetime BA at about .245, with no signs of rising. Polanco will never replace his power, but could and should exceed his numbers in every other way. Jorge is probably a better 2-hole option behind Buxton, as well.

Again, I'm not endorsing a Dozier trade. But I would be curious as to what he could bring.

jimbo92107 · August 8, 2015

Mauer being below replacement level isn't forcing the issue?

If Buxton or Kepler are here or ready next year......or both......

The truth will be revealed in September. Assuming Max Kepler gets his cuppa, it should fairly quickly become apparent if he can hit at the mlb level, or if he needs a year in AAA to further refine his skills. If the former, then Joe Mauer's situation becomes far more precarious. Mauer either has to show some major improvement in his power numbers, or his bat will no longer sustain his major league career. Mauer might still be able to function on some team that needs a lefty bat that can play right field, but the Twins already have far better fielders out there.

Twins management will eventually be cornered into this reality. They can't refuse to call guys up in September, and if they don't play the call-ups, it would seem pretty strange. Once they see improved offense from Kepler or Kennys Vargas, the writing will be on the wall.

A couple years ago I wondered what Mauer's numbers would look like if he played for Boston, with the Green Monster in short left field. How many doubles would Mauer hit off that thing? Maybe Boston could play Mauer in RF, where his oppo approach might still work.

stringer bell · August 8, 2015

Dozier's a very good player and the Twins need more good players, not less. He brings power to a position that is traditionally not a power position and that power is vital to the Twins. If the Twins were to get plenty of power without his production, it might make sense to market him, but I really doubt that will happen with young players populating so many positions on the team in coming years.

Jerr · August 8, 2015

They deferred to him on the catching thing, and showed no courage as an organization. I don't see how that changes with playing time. This is up to Mauer, imo.

Concussions...duh.

Brock Beauchamp · August 8, 2015

Personally, I would trade Plouffe & Nolasco to San Diego for Shields & Hedges. SoCal natives, Trevor & Ricky will cost roughly $40mil over the next two seasons, while Shields could reach $80mil over the next 4 years. Much has been posted about Shields 'Bad' contract. But the fact is, this will be his 9th consecutive 200+ inning season more often than not as the #1 starter. His numbers have been and still are very solid and he has been extremely consistent. Hedges has the potential to compete for the starting gig next spring, but poses zero financial risk.

No to Shields but I'd give up quite a bit for either Hedges or Norris.

kab21 · August 9, 2015

No to Shields but I'd give up quite a bit for either Hedges or Norris.

No, to Norris. He is one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball.

I have no problem with Shields. It isn't my money and I can't think of a better way to spend 30-40M.

RJM96 · August 9, 2015

No, to Norris. He is one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball.

He has vastly improved this year. He is still lacking in his pitch blocking and pitch framing skills, but Fangraphs ranks him as a top ten defensive catcher. I would definitely still prefer Hedges though.

DiscGolfer · August 9, 2015

They should just trade Mauer or move him back to catcher, that would fix everything.

DaveW · August 9, 2015

As long as Ryan is the GM the Twins shouldn't be trading any established players like Plouffe whatsoever, Ryan and co have shown ever since the AJ trade that he has no concept of trade value/trade skills.

kab21 · August 9, 2015

He has vastly improved this year. He is still lacking in his pitch blocking and pitch framing skills, but Fangraphs ranks him as a top ten defensive catcher. I would definitely still prefer Hedges though.

What exactly does he do well if he lacks in pitch blocking and pitch framing? Aside from the running game what else is there?

I am also hesitant to use fangraphs defensive catcher stats using 4 months of data.

RJM96 · August 9, 2015

What exactly does he do well if he lacks in pitch blocking and pitch framing? Aside from the running game what else is there?

I am also hesitant to use fangraphs defensive catcher stats using 4 months of data.

He excells at producing above average defensive metrics.

Reider · August 10, 2015

Dozier's a very good player and the Twins need more good players, not less.

This sums it up perfectly.

Dozier is the type of player the Twins need. If the Twins trade every player that turns out to be as good as Dozier, they'll never be good and will just be a farm system for the rest of the league.

I agree that there are players in the bullpen that need to go ASAP and I do think there are players on the team that are much better trade bait options than Dozier. I don't think the Twins should trade Dozier unless they replace him with someone better or the compensation they receive is too good to refuse.

The prime example is what the Jays did this year. They traded Brett Lawrie away and replaced him with Josh Donaldson. They traded away Jose Reyes and replaced him with Troy Tulowitzki. Now the Blue Jays essentially have the best SS and 3rd base tandem in the league. There's nothing wrong with that!

Who can go:

As far as I am concerned (as of right now), Mauer (I'm fully aware of his no trade clause), Hunter, Suzuki, Herrmann, Fryer, Nunez, Escobar, Robinson, Boyer, Duensing, Graham, Fien, Pelfrey, and possibly even Plouffe, Perkins, and Arcia are players I'd have no problem using as trade bait. The price would have to be right on the last three aforementioned players for sure though.

Who can stay:

Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Rosario (and probably the likes of Polanco, Kepler etc..) are the types of players I'd keep around unless the offer is just too good to refuse. Most of the starting pitchers (and probably Jepsen / Perkins) can stay unless the Twins replace them with better pitchers or receive exceptional compensation in return.

Mauer can stay, but he needs to hit better. Hunter can stay if he wants to be a player / coach next year or if he decides to retire and work in the front office. I'm a huge fan of both of these players.

Blackjack · August 10, 2015

They deferred to him on the catching thing, and showed no courage as an organization. I don't see how that changes with playing time. This is up to Mauer, imo.

I agree, its up to Mauer. It would be nice if he'd just say to heck with it, I've banked enough money and I don't like to perform at a low level - but how many people will walk away from 23 million dollars??! Plus he sees the team improving the next couple of years, I'm sure he'd like to be part of a championship team. It will be up to the team to just start limiting his playing time.

So that leaves trading Plouffe. Hate to see him go but if he could bring back a good SS or catcher, do it. That would free up the DH spot for Arcia, Vargas, etc.

Major League Ready · August 10, 2015

Actually it isn't. It is common for rebuilding teams to trade veterans and replace them with prospects. It is common for low payroll teams to trade veterans and replace them with prospects. It is also common for contending teams to trade prospects to upgrade the MLB roster. I really, really hope that the Twins are in the 3rd category and not the first two any longer.

But you were missing the bigger picture. Why do the Twins have to trade all of the depth that they have? Good teams like the Cardinals suffer an injury and they are able to call up a decent prospect or shift the roster around to play a decent replacement. If the Twins trade Plouffe and/or Kepler then they are one step away from playing Eduardo Nunez or Wilkin Ramirez because the depth was traded away. The same thing goes for SP. The team shouldn't be trading anyone to open a spot for Berrios if we are going to be calling up a Kris Johnson or Yohan Pino type if one pitcher gets injured or struggles. Depth is good and it is what winning teams have.

I also think that we are prematurely considering which prospects have succeeded. Is Hicks really an MLB starter after 1.5 hot months where he still can't hit RHP? Rosario has had a nice season but the team better have plan B ready (like Kepler) next year. Buxton is great but again he hasn't proven anything most all the ability to stay healthy. Depth is good. I would not be concerned about Kepler getting a chance when he has 3 question marks ahead of him.

Trading Dozier is preposterous. Especially when the goal is to replace him with Polanco because the gap wouldn't be that big the first year and by 2018 Polanco will probably be better. Perhaps these people haven't seen Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and any other prospect that dreadfully failed their 1st or 2nd time around. Why are we trading a legit All Star for a question mark? Can we stop rebuilding at some point?

Your bolded text is the primary reason we differ in opinion. This team is not even close to contention and I want the FO to act accordingly. Does this pitching staff look even remotely like the staff of a contender? Offensively, our team reminds me of the Royals from 4-5 years ago. They need to mature. That’s not likely to come together to the point of contention in 2016 either. BTW, by contend I mean make a deep run in the playoffs. 2017 will be the first year of contention if we are lucky and that will require Santana and Hughes to be better than I think they will be and Berrios to reach his ceiling VERY quickly not to mention our hitters maturing like the Royals position players have.

You and all of the other fans who REALLY REALLY want the Twins FO to act like a contender are going to be disappointed if the Twins FO does their job and acts like a team that is still rebuilding because that’s where we are at. They built a pretender. That might be a decent business move but this team is just not ready or positioned to contend soon. How are we going to get the SP if we don’t trade away ML talent or Buxton/Sano? Free agency is always a poor mechanism for a mid-market team and this team already has $60M tied up in Mauer, Santana, Hughes and Nolasco. None of them are tradeable at this point, especially without taking most of their salary back so we can’t get rid of this payroll until 2018-19.

Starting right now, I would like us to quit being a pretender and start building a contender. May needs to be in the rotation. Although, the bullpen experience probably has some value. Next year he needs to be in the rotation and Berrios needs to be here by the Super 2 date at the latest. Trade Nolasco and one of Sanatana or Hughes for a bag of balls if you can and go get a legit #1. I would not care if they traded all 3 actually. May, Berrios, Gibson, Milone, and a legit #1 sounds pretty good. We have some other back of the rotation guys in waiting that provide depth and maybe one day Meyer figures it out.

kab21 · August 10, 2015

The first step to building a contender is not trading away the above average players that you do have.

birddog · August 10, 2015

I know we're a shrinkinig group but I think Mauer has some leash left. Maybe bat him bottom half but I think he has 2-3 good (.800+) seasons left in him.I just cannot believe he's totally washed up already.

And at one point I believed in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny. I am praying Mauer shows some sort of pulse, but I am afraid his bat has flatlined and no defibrillator is in site. His bat is slower than Tim Conway falling down the stairs on the Carol Burnett Show. If his playing time in September doesn't fall dramatically so we can see the young guys, we are stuck with him getting 140+ games for the rest of his contract.

Loosey · August 10, 2015

Your bolded text is the primary reason we differ in opinion. This team is not even close to contention and I want the FO to act accordingly. Does this pitching staff look even remotely like the staff of a contender? Offensively, our team reminds me of the Royals from 4-5 years ago. They need to mature. That’s not likely to come together to the point of contention in 2016 either. BTW, by contend I mean make a deep run in the playoffs. 2017 will be the first year of contention if we are lucky and that will require Santana and Hughes to be better than I think they will be and Berrios to reach his ceiling VERY quickly not to mention our hitters maturing like the Royals position players have.

You and all of the other fans who REALLY REALLY want the Twins FO to act like a contender are going to be disappointed if the Twins FO does their job and acts like a team that is still rebuilding because that’s where we are at. They built a pretender. That might be a decent business move but this team is just not ready or positioned to contend soon. How are we going to get the SP if we don’t trade away ML talent or Buxton/Sano? Free agency is always a poor mechanism for a mid-market team and this team already has $60M tied up in Mauer, Santana, Hughes and Nolasco. None of them are tradeable at this point, especially without taking most of their salary back so we can’t get rid of this payroll until 2018-19.
Starting right now, I would like us to quit being a pretender and start building a contender. May needs to be in the rotation. Although, the bullpen experience probably has some value. Next year he needs to be in the rotation and Berrios needs to be here by the Super 2 date at the latest. Trade Nolasco and one of Sanatana or Hughes for a bag of balls if you can and go get a legit #1. I would not care if they traded all 3 actually. May, Berrios, Gibson, Milone, and a legit #1 sounds pretty good. We have some other back of the rotation guys in waiting that provide depth and maybe one day Meyer figures it out.

The problem isn't that the team isn't acting like a contender it's that they aren't acting like a rebuilding team either. This team tries to convince itself that they are better than they are every year. Below seems to be the FO's mindset the last few seasons:

2011 - It's because all the good players were injured, 2012 will be better

2012 - Just a down year, but some younger guys are coming soon and it will all get better soon

2013 - Ok - were not as good as we thought, but we have the pieces in place in the minors

2014 - We just signed expensive pitchers, we're coming!

2015 - Were above .500 at the ASG. No need to do anything.

The front office never completely went with the idea of a rebuild outside of high draft choices. 2014 signings of Hughes and Nolasco are very strange in hindsight. Did they believe they were on the doorstep of contending and needed just a few pitchers?

nokomismod · August 10, 2015

I like the outside the box thinking. That would be the best option for the Twins to take, but I highly doubt they will. The downgrade from Dozier to Polanco would be pretty steep in 2016 I think. By 2018, that gap will be a whole lot closer. I still think the Twins are trying to get him to stick at SS though.

Or the move of Rosario back to 2b and promotion of Kepler to the big league team. Hopefully Suzuki is not our starting catcher when next season begins. That would be the only way I would trade Dozier or Plouffe (to get an upgrade at catcher).

nokomismod · August 10, 2015

The first step to building a contender is not trading away the above average players that you do have.

The Twins tried to rebuild around arguably the best 2b in baseball back in the mid 90's, and ultimately were forced to make the right move.

birddog · August 10, 2015

The thought of trading Dozier really scares me, as 2B is the only position we have the answer; however, how much value does anyone else in the organization really have? If we are going to land any value in trades, we have to give up something other teams want. We need some power in the lineup and if it isn't going to come from 1B it has to come from the corner OF spots, 3B and DH. I like the numbers Rosario has put up, but if those numbers were coming from a 2B they would be even more impressive (much like Mauer's stats wouldn't be so bad if he were still catching--though I know he will never catch again).

If we must trade Dozier, we have to get a ton of talent for him. And if we do trade him maybe we move Rosario back to 2B which opens up a corner OF spot for a Kepler, Arcia, or even Sano, or anyone with 20+ HR potential. As stated earlier, teams expecting to contend don't replace established players with question marks. Other than 2B and closer, we have lots of questions.

Mike Sixel · August 10, 2015

Polanco is your 2B if dozier is gone, not Rosario, imo.

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