Sano, Mauer, and Plouffe

[kab21]

 

The Twins tried to rebuild around arguably the best 2b in baseball back in the mid 90's, and ultimately were forced to make the right move.

This would make an argument for continual rebuilding for eternity and it has zero correlation to the current situation.  The Twins have some decent to good young veterans and a lot of talent on the brink getting added to that.  The 90's Twins didn't have nearly this much talent (MLB and MiLB) and they had holes everywhere. 

 

Trading Dozier and Plouffe are a poor strategy unless some team is offering something ridiculous for them.  Stop making more holes on the team.  It's easy to say that Polanco will be a good second basemen but he is a fringe top 100 prospect.  These guys are coin flips to have solid careers (solid includes below average) and I like to hope that Polanco could be a stop gap (coin flip chance) at SS and fill another hole that the team has.  We need to fill holes - not create more holes filled with potential (prospects) to flop.

[SheboyganBrats]

 

Polanco is your 2B if dozier is gone, not Rosario, imo.

I agree totally with this.  I always thought moving Rosario to 2B in the minors was an act of desperation, and that it didn't work out particularly well.  But, I might be wrong.  

[Everyday Eddy]

 

This would make an argument for continual rebuilding for eternity and it has zero correlation to the current situation.  The Twins have some decent to good young veterans and a lot of talent on the brink getting added to that.  The 90's Twins didn't have nearly this much talent (MLB and MiLB) and they had holes everywhere. 

 

Trading Dozier and Plouffe are a poor strategy unless some team is offering something ridiculous for them.  Stop making more holes on the team.  It's easy to say that Polanco will be a good second basemen but he is a fringe top 100 prospect.  These guys are coin flips to have solid careers (solid includes below average) and I like to hope that Polanco could be a stop gap (coin flip chance) at SS and fill another hole that the team has.  We need to fill holes - not create more holes filled with potential (prospects) to flop.

 

The thing is, right now you probably could get something ridiculous for Dozier.  What if you can get a couple top 50 prospects and a young MLB starter for Dozier?  What if you can get a couple top 100 prospects for Plouffe.  All of a sudden we have ten guys that will have a shot at hitting their prime together in the big leagues instead of 4 or 5.  Yes Dozier is a good player, but maybe this is as good as it gets and we can hit the prospect jackpot on him.  I just believe that Plouffe and Dozier are a few years ahead of our window to really challenge for a title, which is why I would be fine with dealing them for some high end prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

If you can get a young MLB starter and 2 top 50 players for Dozier, sure, I'd 99% likely do that (assuming that starter is a SS, C, 2B, or SP)......but I can't see that happening.

[kab21]

This team does not only have 4-5 guys that have a shot of hitting their prime together.  I don't even know where to begin with how wrong this is.  This team arguably has 4-5 OF'ers that have a shot of hitting their prime together. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

This team does not only have 4-5 guys that have a shot of hitting their prime together.  I don't even know where to begin with how wrong this is.  This team arguably has 4-5 OF'ers that have a shot of hitting their prime together. 

 

I've been wondering about this.....

 

buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios and who else is likely to hit their prime together? I don't think anyone else on the 25 man is. I don't know, maybe Polanco? No one else is even in AA that is a likely MLB player, are they?

 

 

[Everyday Eddy]

I'm sorry I just don't get the whole idea that Dozier is untouchable.  You are kidding yourself if you think the twins are going to be serious contenders in the next 3 years.  Look at the Mets pitching staff... now look at our pitching staff (including our prospects).  Why not load up our system even more?  Guess what? ... we might be terrible for two or three more years. That also puts us near the top of the draft where Bryce Harpers and Mike Trouts sometimes show up.  The FO has flubbed this rebuild so far and has fooled some into thinking that they have this team right on the edge of greatness.  I would fire TR just based on his showing no clear direction for the franchise and having no clue when to buy or sell or who to pay or not pay. I'd continue the rebuild with a new GM

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm sorry I just don't get the whole idea that Dozier is untouchable.  You are kidding yourself if you think the twins are going to be serious contenders in the next 3 years.  Look at the Mets pitching staff... now look at our pitching staff (including our prospects).  Why not load up our system even more?  Guess what? ... we might be terrible for two or three more years. That also puts us near the top of the draft where Bryce Harpers and Mike Trouts sometimes show up.  The FO has flubbed this rebuild so far and has fooled some into thinking that they have this team right on the edge of greatness.  I would fire TR just based on his showing no clear direction for the franchise and having no clue when to buy or sell or who to pay or not pay. I'd continue the rebuild with a new GM

 

now it's three more years? ugh.

 

I agree with most of the rest, but there is no reason they can't compete in under 3 more years (other than the FO might not be up to the task).

[Everyday Eddy]

I won't be surprised at all if we make the playoffs in the next three years.  To me making the playoffs doesn't mean we are a serious contender.

[mickeymental]

 

That also puts us near the top of the draft where Bryce Harpers and Mike Trouts sometimes show up.

actually, trout was the 25th pick of the 2009 draft -- not what most would consider "near the top." in other words, he was there for the taking by the twins and almost all the other clubs ...

[Everyday Eddy]

 

actually, trout was the 25th pick of the 2009 draft -- not what most would consider "near the top." in other words, he was there for the taking by the twins and almost all the other clubs ...

 

You got me there.  It's hard to belive 24 teams wiffed on him

[jimmer]

 

You got me there.  It's hard to belive 24 teams wiffed on him

Well, not really, though we get the point.

 

Angels also had the 24th pick. Nationals had two picks before that, D'Backs had two before that as well.

[Everyday Eddy]

Sorry, 20 or so teams missed.   Imagine the Nats with Harper and Trout.   That would have been fun

[birddog]

I, too, am amazed 24 teams passed on Trout.

 

I might be in the minority of those who still believe in TR.  I don't see the Pohlads ever firing him, but I do see him resigning if he feels he is not capable of finishing the rebuilding process. He cannot feel good about any of his latest signings, but signing Moli and his staff was a great hire and they got the team to overachieve the first half.  I believe TR is a good judge of talent. I think we  give him the rest of this season to make some waiver wire deals and the off-season to make the deals needed to finish the job. If he can't do it in one year, I think his last act as GM would be to appoint a successor who will.

[jimmer]

 

Sorry, 20 or so teams missed.   Imagine the Nats with Harper and Trout.   That would have been fun

easy mistake to make, and yeah, like the Nats need more talent :-)

[jimmer]

 

I, too, am amazed 24 teams passed on Trout.

 

I might be in the minority of those who still believe in TR.  I don't see the Pohlads ever firing him, but I do see him resigning if he feels he is not capable of finishing the rebuilding process. He cannot feel good about any of his latest signings, but signing Moli and his staff was a great hire and the got the team to overachieve the first half.  I believe TR is a good judge of talent. I think we  give him the rest of this season to make some waiver wire deals and the off-season to make the deals needed to finish the job. If he can't do it in one year, I think his last act as GM would be to appoint a successor who will.

well, as stated, it wasn't 24 teams.

 

and last time he appointed a successor, how did that turn out? 

 

so many people who consistently back him up keep saying one more year, one more year..  It's time for him to step down now.

[birddog]

I replied before Elizabethton posted.

 

We have all had more than enough losing and watching pathetic baseball these last five years to last a lifetime. No one can turn it around overnight unless you have the Dodgers' money. First half was entertaining and provided some hope. Now it's time for TR to step to the plate and get it done.

[jimmer]

 

I replied before Elizabethton posted.

 

We have all had more than enough losing and watching pathetic baseball these last five years to last a lifetime. No one can turn it around overnight unless you have the Dodgers' money. First half was entertaining and provided some hope. Now it's time for TR to step to the plate and get it done.

I'd argue that 'the time for TR to step to the plate and get it done' was much earlier than now, but that ship has sailed.

[Pardon My Dinger]

_{Plouffy's season has pretty effectively mirrored the highs and lows of the 2015 Twins' performance as a whole. I like Plouffe most of the time, but if we don't sell (relatively) high on this guy in the offseason, I have a feeling that we're going to feel like real dummies in 2016.}

[kab21]

 

I've been wondering about this.....

 

buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios and who else is likely to hit their prime together? I don't think anyone else on the 25 man is. I don't know, maybe Polanco? No one else is even in AA that is a likely MLB player, are they?

Hicks, May, and several 28 yr olds that aren't going to fall off of a cliff immediately.  This thread is incredibly frustrating.  It sounds like some believe that unless a team has 21-26 yr olds at every position they should just keep rebuilding.  If we are waiting for that then we will always be waiting.

_{Plouffy's season has pretty effectively mirrored the highs and lows of the 2015 Twins' performance as a whole. I like Plouffe most of the time, but if we don't sell (relatively) high on this guy in the offseason, I have a feeling that we're going to feel like real dummies in 2016.}

He has done this for the last 4 years.  Why do you expect a .700-.750 OPS hitter (trending up but not lucky) to regress?

 

I am all for pulling off another AJ trade that you guys are theorizing but not even Josh Donaldson (MVP caliber) landed the type of package you are suggesting for Dozier.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Trust me, I've never argued for them to be in "play for the future mode all the time" mode........

 

 

[Loosey]

Why do you trade (arguably) your best player when you are close to being able to contend for the post season? 

 

In my opinion, if you trade Dozier and replace him with say, Polanco.  The Twins are probably giving up 40+ runs produced/scored/saved.  They better get A LOT of quality pieces that more than make up for those runs incrementally over whoever they replace.  For Example if they get a Catcher, they better be 40 runs better than Suzuki, etc.

[Everyday Eddy]

I will be thrilled if Dozier is a 30 year old all star with the twins, but I also know that sometimes teams get better by selling high on players.  I would at least be checking around and seeing if there is a good deal that could be made for him this offseason while (hopefully) his value is still high.

 

The Donaldson trade was an awful attempt by Billy Beane to try and look like a genius, so that isn't the type of example I'd use to gauge Dozier's value. 

 

If a team sees Dozier as a guy who will be an all star going forward and is pretty cheap plus under club control for a few years, then yes I do believe he could bring in a worthwhile return

[Brock Beauchamp]

When you have a position of strength, it makes sense to trade a good MLB player.

 

Second base is not a position of strength on the Twins. You have Brian Dozier and... uh... er... Jorge Polanco? A guy with a .735 OPS across two MiLB levels this season? That's your replacement?

 

Yeah, okay. No thanks. Never mind the Twins don't have a SS and Polanco is their best option at that position as well...

 

I never understand the thinking of some posters. Win now! Sell high!

 

Well, most of the time those ideas don't work in tandem and they almost never work when your replacement for an All-Star MLB player is a guy who doesn't crack any MLB top 100 prospect lists.

 

Listen, Jorge Polanco is a nice prospect. There's also an overwhelming probability his peak will never approach Dozier's current production.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, Brock......there just isn't evidence Polanco is ready.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree, Brock......there just isn't evidence Polanco is ready.

Even if he is ready, I'd put the odds at 5:1 that he will ever approach Dozier's current value as an MLB player.

 

Jorge Polanco owns a .755 OPS in his MiLB career. That's nice for an up-the-middle player but Dozier is on his way to averaging 4 WAR per season since 2013. That's Jorge Polanco's ceiling.

 

This isn't a Joe Mauer/AJ Pierzynski situation. Jorge Polanco isn't half the player Joe Mauer was in 2004.

 

Trading Brian Dozier is a sure-fire way to make the 2016 Minnesota Twins a worse team.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

When you have a position of strength, it makes sense to trade a good MLB player.

 

Second base is not a position of strength on the Twins. You have Brian Dozier and... uh... er... Jorge Polanco? A guy with a .735 OPS across two MiLB levels this season? That's your replacement?

 

Yeah, okay. No thanks. Never mind the Twins don't have a SS and Polanco is their best option at that position as well...

 

I never understand the thinking of some posters. Win now! Sell high!

 

Well, those things don't really work in tandem most of the time and they almost never work when your replacement for an All-Star MLB player is a guy who doesn't crack any MLB top 100 prospect lists.

 

I've stated that I don't believe this team is in win now or even win next year mode.  I seriously don't get anyone who sees the twins as a serious contender anytime soon.  The bullpen and rotation are not going to magically get good by adding just berrios and assuming other young guys just create a lights out bullpen.  There are still multiple years left on this rebuild.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've stated that I don't believe this team is in win now or even win next year mode.  I seriously don't get anyone who sees the twins as a serious contender anytime soon.  The bullpen and rotation are not going to magically get good by adding just berrios and assuming other young guys just create a lights out bullpen.  There are still multiple years left on this rebuild.

I don't buy that at all. The rotation logjam is unfortunate but May, Gibson, and Berrios form a pretty solid rotation, provided Jose pans out as expected. Santana/Hughes/Nolasco have some upside as back of the rotation arms.

 

Fixing the bullpen in an offseason is literally the easiest thing to do on a baseball team.

 

This team isn't far from competing, the Twins just need to make a few moves. Given their abundance of OF assets, making those moves will not be difficult.

[Everyday Eddy]

We can just agree to disagree.   I don't think my view is absurd as some make it out to be.   May, Gibson, and Berrios could be solid I agree on that. 

 

Just curious what move would you make with any of our outfielders?   I don't know of any team that would trade a worthwhile catcher or shortstop for flawed outfield prospects like Hicks and Arcia.  I think Kepler is going to be good so I'd keep him, but maybe you wouldn't.  He's the most likely to bring in a solid piece.

 

I really don't trust our front office to go one way or the other because they've proven time and time again to just ride the fence and accomplish nothing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We can just agree to disagree.   I don't think my view is absurd as some make it out to be.   May, Gibson, and Berrios could be solid I agree on that. 

 

Just curious what move would you make with any of our outfielders?   I don't know of any team that would trade a worthwhile catcher or shortstop for flawed outfield prospects like Hicks and Arcia.  I think Kepler is going to be good so I'd keep him, but maybe you wouldn't.  He's the most likely to bring in a solid piece.

 

I really don't trust our front office to go one way or the other because they've proven time and time again to just ride the fence and accomplish nothing.

The front office won't do it but the first OF on my list to trade would be Eddie Rosario. He has value and his swing-happy nature makes me nervous.

 

But I also think Hicks is going to have some value this offseason. He continues to rake and his OPS against RHP is up to .639. Given Hicks' stellar defense this season, his rejuvenated bat, his elite discipline, and his questionable value after 2+ seasons of struggling, he'd be on my must-keep list.

 

I'd also keep Oswaldo Arcia because the Twins have completely destroyed his value by keeping him in AAA all season.