Heyman: Twins may be early buyers

[spinowner]

 

Just about every team is in it so far this year, a team would get fleeced trying to buy someone as the records stand now.

I know I'll get ripped apart for saying it, but if the Twins want to win long term, they should be one of the few sellers, particularly since for the first time in years they might actually have some attractive pieces.

I would not rip apart a voice of good logical analysis.

[Eris]

 

I know I'll get ripped apart for saying it, but if the Twins want to win long term, they should be one of the few sellers, particularly since for the first time in years they might actually have some attractive pieces.

I also agree with you.  Even if the Twins were to make it into the playoffs, they probably don't have the hitting or pitching to go very far.  The Twins should be serious sellers.  Anyone who will not be considered part of this team in 2 or 3 years should be gone by the trade deadline, or at least offered up, to make room for the prospects.   Pelfey for a top catching prospect, with how he is pitching right now might be doable.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Blackmon is a career .756 OPS, 3.1 career WAR outfielder with only 3.5 years of control left. And Miguel Sano is Miguel Sano, with 6+ years of control left. Even if you think pretty lowly of Sano, which I don't, you could still get a lot more for him than that in a trade.

well right---I'd ask for more than just Blackmon. But at least we know Blackmon can play good outfield and hit in the majors. There are lots of reasons Sano is not a guarantee. I wouldn't call them concerns but I'm not one to intoxicate myself on rankings like others.

[birddog]

In response to Answerman, this may not be popular with many people but I think Kohl Stewart is a tradeable commodity. We have an abundance of young A/AA pitchers like Gonsalves, Hu, Felix Jorge, and Matt Bats who appear to have as good or better stuff than Stewart. Also any 2nd base prospect is tradeable with Dozier locked in. Every conversation seems to get back to Mauer being the elephant in the room, but that is exactly what he is, preventing young studs from taking over at 1B. Sano, Arcia, Vargas, Adam Brett Walker, and Max Kepler could all be 1b/DH players.

 

Twins can't overachieve all season, so we have to be happy the pitching is keeping us in games as our hitting fails recently. We have exactly what we hoped for in April, being competitive and creating a market for some of our players. Is Pelfrey in the long range plans? Is Nolasco? Milone? I hope TR is totally healthy because I think he is going to be very busy in the very near future. I hope he doesn't trade away any of our top prospects unless it is to get us a Paul Goldschmidt type.

[Secondary User]

For everyone on their "You're illogical if you think the Twins could be buyers this year," it's time to just calm down.  We're all aware that the wheels could come falling off this thing, but if the team is competitive through June, they certainly have the organizational depth and some positional redundancies to make moves at positions of very strong need (catcher, SS) without mortgaging the future.

[jokin]

 

well right---I'd ask for more than just Blackmon. But at least we know Blackmon can play good outfield and hit in the majors. There are lots of reasons Sano is not a guarantee. I wouldn't call them concerns but I'm not one to intoxicate myself on rankings like others.

 

I have concerns about any hitter from Colorado.  Here's a good example why:

 

Blackmon home OPS: .850

Blackmon away OPS:  .656

[USAFChief]

 

I also agree with you.  Even if the Twins were to make it into the playoffs, they probably don't have the hitting or pitching to go very far.  The Twins should be serious sellers.  Anyone who will not be considered part of this team in 2 or 3 years should be gone by the trade deadline, or at least offered up, to make room for the prospects.   Pelfey for a top catching prospect, with how he is pitching right now might be doable.  

After four years of suckage, you want to put off contention for another 2 or 3?  

 

No thank you.  

 

If this team is within shouting distance of the postseason over the next month, they should absolutely go for it.  That's what you assemble minor league talent for, to help the big league team. 

[markos]

 

After four years of suckage, you want to put off contention for another 2 or 3?  

 

No thank you.  

 

If this team is within shouting distance of the postseason over the next month, they should absolutely go for it.  That's what you assemble minor league talent for, to help the big league team. 

I'm not sure they can wait a month. If they really want to take advantage of their surprisingly good start, they need to make a move (or moves) sooner rather than later. Waiting until the All Star break might be too late. 

[USAFChief]

 

I'm not sure they can wait a month. If they really want to take advantage of their surprisingly good start, they need to make a move (or moves) sooner rather than later. Waiting until the All Star break might be too late. 

Fine with me.

 

But don't play for 2018, please.

[howeda7]

 

I would be massively in favor of Reddick.  Give Beane Santana, Vargas, and Arcia and call it a day.

Santa, Vargas AND Arcia for Reddick? Good god.Unless you're convinced they're all garbage, that's WAY too much to give up. I'd rather just get a catcher for now and see where things are in a month.

[howeda7]

 

After four years of suckage, you want to put off contention for another 2 or 3?  

 

No thank you.  

 

If this team is within shouting distance of the postseason over the next month, they should absolutely go for it.  That's what you assemble minor league talent for, to help the big league team. 

Agreed. Though it isn't all one or the other. Trading Pelfrey could be part of helping this team, in a 3-way trade if not directly.

[Platoon]

We can always sign a 30 yr old veteran, he can make a little run, and we can extend him for a few years! It's the Twins Way. So, the team which has been bleating for two years plus, over having the best or one of the best minor league pools of talent in all of baseball, would consider going out and buying some low control, mid level outfielder?

[Platoon]

Just about every team is in it so far this year, a team would get fleeced trying to buy someone as the records stand now.

I know I'll get ripped apart for saying it, but if the Twins want to win long term, they should be one of the few sellers, particularly since for the first time in years they might actually have some attractive pieces.

Thanks Nick. It takes a lot of guts by the GM of a 4 year 90+ losing team, to admit that his "little engine that could", won't! That the team played with a golden horse shoe in its pocket for several weeks, played losing teams, and now it's regressing to the norm. SELL SELL SELL! Then, BUILD HUILD BUILD! If you invest in a 30 year old, mid level player, the fans will yawn. If you start bringing in talented youth, the fans will follow, and be patient.

[Kwak]

 

Thanks Nick. It takes a lot of guts by the GM of a 4 year 90+ losing team, to admit that his "little engine that could", won't! That the team played with a golden horse shoe in its pocket for several weeks, played losing teams, and now it's regressing to the norm. SELL SELL SELL! Then, BUILD HUILD BUILD! If you invest in a 30 year old, mid level player, the fans will yawn. If you start bringing in talented youth, the fans will follow, and be patient.

This reminds me of a Far Side cartoon of three vultures and one says to the others:  "Patience Hell, I'm going to kill something."

[DocBauer]

Umm......no.

No thank you.

Please no.

God no.

Hell no.

 

Get the point?

 

I've been saying since last year that the time to make any deal(s) is AFTER THIS season. And not before. Don't get impatient, don't get fooled, and don't get desperate. Think of how long some teams have suffered with little or nothing to cheer for and with little or nothing to hope for except...well....hope. Royals? Astros? Pirates? Cubs? To name a few. How many winning seasons in the past 10+ years combined? And we've had 4 bad seasons, at least one of which was unexpected. We are, arguably, a year early for above .500 and possibly in contention for a playoff spot. I say arguably because injuries really hurt a couple top prospects last season in their rise, and because some of us saw this team at .500 or above with a few breaks.

 

So the team is winning, playing well, competitive, (despite a little recent slump age), and we are suddenly willing to dump prospects or quality young veterans for an aged vet or two, or someone who might leave in a season, or be soon replaceable within our own system? Remember all the "no's" I mentioned above?

 

Look, other than Meyer having some unfortunate and unforeseen trouble...and some disappointment from Santana and a little from Vargas...a lot of things are going exactly as hoped for. Hicks is suddenly playing great defense and looking like a youngster who has a future. Rosario is looking good. May and Gibson are becoming real fixtures. Buxton, Sano and Polanco are looking REAL CLOSE. Berrios may not be far behind. Hughes is struggling some, but I don't think anyone really doubts him long term. Santana will join the rotation soon. Plouffe may not be a stud, but he has real ability and value. Dozier IS a stud. Etc, etc, there are a lot of valid points to be made how close this is lot coming together.

 

ML and Milb level, we have over half a season still for development, promotion and determination. And a much better read not only on 2016, but the team that will continue beyond. I think this team could use a move for a young front line catcher. It could also use a LH and RH to step forward in the bullpen. Those last two could be filled from within. But the time to fully examine, prepare and move is AFTER the season...not now. Don't hurry a recipe for success by messing too much with the ingredients too soon.

[hotshot031]

Do not touch the lineup yet. The only trade I have seen that I like is if you swap a bad contract for a bad contract. Someone said something about Nolasco/Ryan Howard swap. If you toss the phils a b-level prospect that would be a great trade. You could use Vargas in the Jim Thome-type role, instead of the full time DH (even though Vargas really isnt hitting terrible, just not as well as you would like a DH to hit.....). 

 

With plenty of flame-throwers in the minors out of the pen, like the Tyler Jay kid mixed in with Meyer (gunner), Burdi (gunner), Tonkin (gunner), Oliveros (maybe), Pressley (can be effective) and obviously Perkins you dont want to mess with signing anyone out of the pen. If you want to sign someone, resign Boyer the Destroyer. Also don't forget JR Graham hasn't been spectacular but he can serve as the long guy and be solid.

 

Lineup wise, the upgrade to make would be at short. E2 is a utility guy, glove work IN THE INFIELD is great but draws no walks. Santana has a cannon, but see E2. These are all guys you can sit behind your gunners. I really don't see a lot of things the Twins can really do.....You could go get an Ace-type.....I like Cueto....but he is a FA after the season. Trading for him to give up a guy like Kepler would irk me slightly.....I'd just soon take the lumps until after the season and give this guy a Barry Zito deal that way you don't give up anyone....

 

So its kind of like, what do you do? Ervin will improve the staff, no doubt. Trevor May is going to make a run at ROY. You still have PH, who will be better, not as good as last year but not as bad as this season (somewhere in the middle), and Gibson. So that leaves one spot. JO is going to eventually need a shot, but at the moment he might be a year or two away. 

 

The only thing I would see you could do is do that bad contract DH-Type for a Ricky Nolasco swap.....which opens the door for Pelfs 5.5, Tim Stauffer's 2 mil comes off the books, and Torii's 10 mil comes off the books. If you could somehow pull off a deal to get rid of Nolasco than thats another 12 mil, then you go get Cueto, David Price (A little too old for my liking), Hamels, whoever you feel can serve as a number one.....because May and Ervin will push the number 2 spots, especially Trevor May....

 

That's what they need to do......

[hotshot031]

 

Do not touch the lineup yet. The only trade I have seen that I like is if you swap a bad contract for a bad contract. Someone said something about Nolasco/Ryan Howard swap. If you toss the phils a b-level prospect that would be a great trade. You could use Vargas in the Jim Thome-type role, instead of the full time DH (even though Vargas really isnt hitting terrible, just not as well as you would like a DH to hit.....). 

 

With plenty of flame-throwers in the minors out of the pen, like the Tyler Jay kid mixed in with Meyer (gunner), Burdi (gunner), Tonkin (gunner), Oliveros (maybe), Pressley (can be effective) and obviously Perkins you dont want to mess with signing anyone out of the pen. If you want to sign someone, resign Boyer the Destroyer. Also don't forget JR Graham hasn't been spectacular but he can serve as the long guy and be solid.

 

Lineup wise, the upgrade to make would be at short. E2 is a utility guy, glove work IN THE INFIELD is great but draws no walks. Santana has a cannon, but see E2. These are all guys you can sit behind your gunners. I really don't see a lot of things the Twins can really do.....You could go get an Ace-type.....I like Cueto....but he is a FA after the season. Trading for him to give up a guy like Kepler would irk me slightly.....I'd just soon take the lumps until after the season and give this guy a Barry Zito deal that way you don't give up anyone....

 

So its kind of like, what do you do? Ervin will improve the staff, no doubt. Trevor May is going to make a run at ROY. You still have PH, who will be better, not as good as last year but not as bad as this season (somewhere in the middle), and Gibson. So that leaves one spot. JO is going to eventually need a shot, but at the moment he might be a year or two away. 

 

The only thing I would see you could do is do that bad contract DH-Type for a Ricky Nolasco swap.....which opens the door for Pelfs 5.5, Tim Stauffer's 2 mil comes off the books, and Torii's 10 mil comes off the books. If you could somehow pull off a deal to get rid of Nolasco than thats another 12 mil, then you go get Cueto, David Price (A little too old for my liking), Hamels, whoever you feel can serve as a number one.....because May and Ervin will push the number 2 spots, especially Trevor May....

 

That's what they need to do......

I'll quote myself so your know what your working with next season.

 

OF you get Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, and Arcia fighting. You still have a SS problem in the infield, but you have Plouffe, Dozier and Mauer. Catching is Kurt and a backup. and another backup. Santana and E2 can fill voids left in most spots. Put Ryan Howard at DH for another year (his contract is up after 2016, that is when Sano takes over) and put Vargas as your DH/1st/PH (WHATEVER THEY DO THEY BETTER NOT TRADE OR GIVE UP ON HIM). 

 

The Pen as Perk, Tonkin, Ollie, Meyer, Burdi, Pressley, and JR Graham. Resign Boyer. Tyler Jay eventually joins. That is a potentially DEVASTATING bullpen.

 

I don't like bringing back Torii unless he wants to play for pennies on the dollar-his 10 mil along with Pelfs 5.5 could be better allocated to landing your Cueto. That is who they need to go all in and get. Him for David Price, one of the two. Then you get your Cueto/Price, Ervin, May, PH, and Gibson. You can keep Milone around if you want for depth or give Graham or Meyer the ball if you have injuries.....

 

I am looking at your 2016 FA list, specifically the SS position. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/2016-mlb-free-agents.html I personally wouldn't whore out for a guy like Tulo. Just too much back-end problems. The money needs to go to Cueto or David Price. 

 

As far as SS goes, I like Alcides Escobar a lot but I don't like paying him a lot....but he doesn't strike out much and has plus glove.....the rest of the guys on the list are, meh. I'd rather just trot out E2 out there......there really isn't a lot of guys right now hitting the market that are better....I wouldn't spend any money on any of these guys....

[h2oface]

Secondary User, on 12 Jun 2015 - 2:27 PM, said:
Jonathon Lucroy and Troy Tulowitzki

Definitely would be an upgrade, but like I said - ain't gonna be cheap!  They shouldn't be giving up much.

There is so much redundancy in the system that you could make a trade giving up enough to make a trade without sacrificing any future, but getting value before it is diminished or gone. And without losing the 'jewels'. You just have to make some choices now. Arcia or Vargas, for instance. Santana or Polanco or Gordon.  Meyer or Stewart or pick one. Wait until July and just after the all-star break to see if this team can rebound, and if it is real, but there is a lot of redundancy to make decisions about.

[Pitz]

Rather than being early buyers, why not be promoters. 

Why not bring Meyer up to upgrade the bullpen and also allow him to work with the best pitching coach in the org?

 

Promoting Buxton makes a lot more sense to me than making a trade in June. 

 

Why not get a month from these guys before the deadline to see where you're at and what you have?

 

I'm not opposed to using their farm depth to acquire big league talent, but it doesn't make much sense to me right now.

[stringer bell]

 

The Twins are in an interesting position this year. They're close to contending this year, but I do not think the players needed for the future should not be traded to win this year. 

 

Of course, if the Twins have truly turned the corner when it comes to pitching and actually have an abundance, then perhaps there is some trade value there. Although, the idea of trading pitching comes with some caution. It's all to easy for pitching to go south in a hurry.

I don't think there is an abundance of pitching at all, particularly in the bullpen. They might have seven starters for five spots in the rotation, come July 4. However, Nolasco, Santana, and Pelfrey are over 30. Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana have big contracts beyond this year. Add in that Milone has an 88 mph fastball and one good secondary pitch and I don't think there is a lot of value to trade and there are ample chances for regression. 

 

I do believe that the Twins could and probably should trade some prospects, just because of the 40-man crunch that will be coming this off-season. They need left handed relief pitching on the big club and really could use an upgrade at catcher, neither of these categories have a ready or near-ready prospect waiting in the high minors.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Santa, Vargas AND Arcia for Reddick? Good god.Unless you're convinced they're all garbage, that's WAY too much to give up. I'd rather just get a catcher for now and see where things are in a month.

The thing is, it feels like a lot, but it really isn't because all 3 of those players are so easily replaceable. Escobar can man short, and if he stumbles you have Polanco, with Gordon only a few years away.

 

If you're looking for power to replace Vargas, there's this guy named Sano in AA, and ABW and Dalton Hicks are possible options too.

 

And for Arcia, Reddick himself is a massive upgrade, and even if he leaves after next year, you can roll with Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, and Kepler.

 

So all 3 of those guys are easily replaceable, as well as not exactly being sure things to stick in the majors.

[TheLeviathan]

Sano for Blackmon is a catastrophically bad idea.

[Mike Sixel]

Just about every team is in it so far this year, a team would get fleeced trying to buy someone as the records stand now.

I know I'll get ripped apart for saying it, but if the Twins want to win long term, they should be one of the few sellers, particularly since for the first time in years they might actually have some attractive pieces.

So, again , punt the season and give the finger to fans and the MLB players?

[JustinCB]

Twins play Texas, st Louis, and the cubs through next Sunday. Over/under on them going 2-7 during that stretch and coming out 35-34 at the end of it?

[Mike Sixel]

When do we get to play for the present? Last year and the year before you said next year. We are two years into next year. If they do deal and struggle, next year you will say they were not good last year, so wait another year. Buxton should be up .Waiting for the ASG or minor league pllayoffs is just saying that he MLB team is not important.

[JustinCB]

They ain't any good yet, man. They just aren't. We all know its coming. Its just not time yet guys.

[JustinCB]

Plenty of teams in baseball haven't been relevant for decades. Twins were one of the best teams around in 2010. It ain't so bad. Have some patience!

[Mike Sixel]

They ain't any good yet, man. They just aren't. We all know its coming. Its just not time yet guys.

A rebuilding should not take seven years to even be good. If they lose 90 again........so when do they actually try to be good. When is this mythical future?

[Mike Sixel]

Plenty of teams in baseball haven't been relevant for decades. Twins were one of the best teams around in 2010. It ain't so bad. Have some patience!

Why? Why should a fan keep paying for crappy teams? Why should a fan be patient? Why should we tolerate being bad for decades? You can choose to be that way, why should I?

[stringer bell]

Even with the losing streak, the Twins are relevant so far this year. They need to keep trying to improve this team, not at the expense of the future. They have a bunch of prospects and they don't have spots for all of them. A trade of some prospects for Jonathan Lucroy makes a lot of sense to me. Adding a left hander with a chance to get hitters out really would help.