Nunez Activated, Vargas Optioned

[jorgenswest]

Meaningless? arrggh. Is a 4-4 day at the plate meaningless because it is just one day? I don't think so. One can weight it as they like, but I can't accept that the stats are meaningless.

Small samples are absolutely meaningless in projecting what is going to happen in the coming games. The Twins should not use them as part of their decision making process in deciding who to take to Pittsburgh next week. They have to solely rely on the skill of their staff in evaluating players based on observing them in games and work outs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know it is hard for some to see Vargas independent of Bernier. Vargas hasn't started the previous three games. He isn't going to start before Friday of this week. Is it that difficult to see the benefit of him getting regular play time in AAA as part of his development?.

It is difficult to see why he wasn't playing more often in MLB, and why he couldn't over the coming weeks.

 

Seriously, Escobar is a nice asset, but he is not a bat you need in the lineup every day. Heck, neither is Mauer right now.

 

At least when Pinto was sent down a year ago, he was somewhat more directly blocked by a guy having a career year. The Twins are opting not to have a regular DH right now, which is odd given their alternatives and the schedule (only two road interleague games until June 15).

[Otto von Ballpark]

And Vargas can't be recalled after the two games in Pittsburgh. He has to stay down for at least 10 days unless someone else gets injured.

 

This isn't about the Pittsburgh series, or at least shouldn't be. ( Or if it was, given how much they have played Vargas recently, they should have demoted him a week ago)

[h2oface]

 

Small samples are absolutely meaningless in projecting what is going to happen in the coming games. The Twins should not use them as part of their decision making process in deciding who to take to Pittsburgh next week. They have to solely rely on the skill of their staff in evaluating players based on observing them in games and work outs.

I contend lifetime stats are the ones that can't be used in projecting what is going to happen in the coming games. As an example, use Joe Mauer. Relying on his lifetime stats and large sample is ignoring his present trends. Small samples and streaks can be very important to utilize. Kudos to a manager that will pay particular attention to trends and steaks, and utilize it in the lineup while it is happening, rather than being the cooler and sitting the player because of some lefty righty tradition. Recognizing it quickly and taking advantage while it is happening by adjusting the lineup order or keeping it in the lineup can be worth several wins a season. Nothing is absolutely meaningless, and even nothing has meaning.

[Platoon]

Sending Vargas to Rochester fills the Twins need to field lineups like they did today. What other team would bat a Suzuki or Escobar in the 5 hole? Sure you can get away with it for awhile, ie, small sample size. But it's not sustainable. Twins fans can rejoice this little run all they want, it's even kinda fun. The little engine that could. But it's going to get very costly down the road. Sooner or later they are going to have to bite the bullet and straighten out this roster. You cannot continue to be a home for the Hermanns, Shafers, Nunez, and Robinsoms of the world. Nor can you just throw EE in LF because he needs a place to play. You throw big hitters in those spots, and hope the offense balances their shortcomings.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Doesn't make much sense.

 

What's impressive is that Vargas just pulled himself out of a slump.

[jorgenswest]

I contend lifetime stats are the ones that can't be used in projecting what is going to happen in the coming games. As an example, use Joe Mauer. Relying on his lifetime stats and large sample is ignoring his present trends. Small samples and streaks can be very important to utilize. Kudos to a manager that will pay particular attention to trends and steaks, and utilize it in the lineup while it is happening, rather than being the cooler and sitting the player because of some lefty righty tradition. Recognizing it quickly and taking advantage while it is happening by adjusting the lineup order or keeping it in the lineup can be worth several wins a season. Nothing is absolutely meaningless, and even nothing has meaning.

We are very far apart in our understanding of data and samples and their use for projecting future events.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Vargas needs to play every day. Also, we may see Arcia doing turns at DH for a while, and when he returns, then Bernier goes.

The net result = more time for Rosario. I'm good with that.

that was my silver lining. Maybe Hunter and Arcia will DH leaving Rosario, Hicks, andRobinson/Escobar the majority of outfielding

[Platoon]

And we haven't even discussed the mess when Stauffer and Fien comes back.

[stringer bell]

 

Sending Vargas to Rochester fills the Twins need to field lineups like they did today. What other team would bat a Suzuki or Escobar in the 5 hole? Sure you can get away with it for awhile, ie, small sample size. But it's not sustainable. Twins fans can rejoice this little run all they want, it's even kinda fun. The little engine that could. But it's going to get very costly down the road. Sooner or later they are going to have to bite the bullet and straighten out this roster. You cannot continue to be a home for the Hermanns, Shafers, Nunez, and Robinsoms of the world. Nor can you just throw EE in LF because he needs a place to play. You throw big hitters in those spots, and hope the offense balances their shortcomings.

Today, put out the best lineup to win today's game.  For the long view, players need to fit their roles and a bunch of hit-first guys for too many positions is a problem.  I think there has to be a decision somewhere who to keep and who to trade.  Counting Sano, the Twins have Vargas, Arcia, Pinto and Mauer all competing for maybe two roster spots.  Add in Plouffe if the Twins do shoe-horn Sano in at third base.  Molitor also seems committed to Escobar at least 75 percent of the time.  It makes for unwieldy lineups and poor defense on the corners, especially with Hunter demanding (and probably earning) playing time this year.  I don't think the bench players named are the problem.  Their role is to play when called on (infrequently). 

 

 

[Craig Arko]

We are very far apart in our understanding of data and samples and their use for projecting future events.

It can be a little counterintuitive at times. For example, flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads all 10 times.

 

What does that say about the next flip?

[spinowner]

 

 Oh to have not traded Wilson Ramos.

Recall the situation in 2010: Nathan was out after TJ. Jon Rausch was closing. Matt Capps had been in the ASG the previous year. We needed a closer and didn't foresee the need for a catching prospect. I thought the deal benefited both sides at the time. Had Capps not faded away after just another year or two it would have been fairly equitable.

[Hrbowski]

I think that he will be back up soon, they probably figured that since we have a stretch of interleague play this would be the best time to have him work at first everyday, but that would be the only scenario that would make sense. Now that we have 7 infielders we should add another left handed bat among them besides Mauer, and I want it to be Ryan Wheeler.

[drivlikejehu]

And the roster mismanagement continues...

[mickeymental]

Recall the situation in 2010: Nathan was out after TJ. Jon Rausch was closing. Matt Capps had been in the ASG the previous year. We needed a closer and didn't foresee the need for a catching prospect. I thought the deal benefited both sides at the time. Had Capps not faded away after just another year or two it would have been fairly equitable.

except that capps is four years older.

[kab21]

I hate this.

[Platoon]

Today, put out the best lineup to win today's game.  For the long view, players need to fit their roles and a bunch of hit-first guys for too many positions is a problem.  I think there has to be a decision somewhere who to keep and who to trade.  Counting Sano, the Twins have Vargas, Arcia, Pinto and Mauer all competing for maybe two roster spots.  Add in Plouffe if the Twins do shoe-horn Sano in at third base.  Molitor also seems committed to Escobar at least 75 percent of the time.  It makes for unwieldy lineups and poor defense on the corners, especially with Hunter demanding (and probably earning) playing time this year.  I don't think the bench players named are the problem.  Their role is to play when called on (infrequently).

 

it does make for unwieldy lineups and poor defense on the corners. But the players I listed are not good defensive players, where they are playing, ie EE. Robinson might be the exception. In almost no other orginisation would a Pinto not be here as the number #2 catcher, DH, PH. Getting enough AB's to stay warm. I don't disagree with the fact there might be some trades to make. But first you have to come to the conclusion that you really can have too many poor hitting utility men. And, that every player that is not starting at his position can just be shuffled off to another spot at whim.

[h2oface]

 

Recall the situation in 2010: Nathan was out after TJ. Jon Rausch was closing. Matt Capps had been in the ASG the previous year. We needed a closer and didn't foresee the need for a catching prospect. I thought the deal benefited both sides at the time. Had Capps not faded away after just another year or two it would have been fairly equitable.

Please. Capps was always mediocre and had already been demoted as Washington's closer the year Smith traded a future "real" all star catcher for him! The only reason Capps was an all-star the year before was because he was the Nats only all-star - that mandatory obligatory pick (just like Cuddyer was that year from the Twins with nothing close to all star-numbers). They had to take someone, and with Capps, they wouldn't even have to get him in the game.  It was obvious then that Mauer would not be behind the plate that long, and we had our future catcher. One of the worst trades the Twins ever made was in 2010, and Ramos was needed all the next year. But this is all for a different thread, and the "Oh to have not traded Wilson Ramos" was just an aside. Back to topic, for me.

[Platoon]

It can be a little counterintuitive at times. For example, flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads all 10 times.

What does that say about the next flip?

That you will now be flipping it 11 times?

[drivlikejehu]

I guess we should at least be glad to have Nunez back; he's in the prime of his fantastic -1.4 WAR career. Can he reach -2.0? The Twins certainly want to find out.

[Danchat]

How does this make sense? Why do we want a bench consisting of Escobar, Nunez, Bernier, and Herrmann? That's 3 utility guys on the bench! But I suppose the team sees Escobar and Nunez as outfielders. 

 

And I thought Vargas was getting into a groove... I mean, I do think he should refine his swing in AAA, but after that 3 game benching, it seems he's done much better.

 

Let's hope Bernier's stay does not last much longer. I'd much rather see James Beresford or Ryan Wheeler on the team just so they could hit. Actually, I'd rather see Vargas on the team. Wait...

[Craig Arko]

That you will now be flipping it 11 times?

Truer words were never written.

[HitInAPinch]

 

What does Bernier offer?

 

Age and wisdom 

[TheLeviathan]

Sending Vargas down would've made more sense 2-3 weeks ago when he was scuffling.  Now as he's starting to get his groove going is a bit....odd.

[Mike Sixel]

The more I think about it, the worse I feel about this FO. That has to be the worst bench in the majors.

[Squirrel]

 

The more I think about it, the worse I feel about this FO. 

I didn't think that was possible!

[jorgenswest]

From his comments I really believe this is Molitor's assessment of Vargas' approach at the plate. Ryan makes the move, but I think this one as well as the Rosario move were pushed by Molitor.

 

It is too early for me to have lost faith in his evaluations.

[h2oface]

 

.........they probably figured that since we have a stretch of interleague play this would be the best time to have him work at first everyday, but that would be the only scenario that would make sense. .............

The two games in Pittsburgh this week and the two games at St. Louis several weeks later on June 15 & 16 are the only 4 games in a National League Park until the "stretch" of 7 games in a row starting June 26....... so not much of an away stretch of interleague play with no DH. They go two games in a row without using Vargas, anyway. Maybe it is part of the reason, but it would be a better reason on June 25.

[Hrbowski]

 

The more I think about it, the worse I feel about this FO.

Why? Weren't you harping about Boyer and Thompson? (Please correct me if I am wrong.) Look how they turned out. I personally think that this front office knows what they are doing, especially Terry Ryan. The move may seem odd, but I think that they want Vargas to actually know how to field his position, it seems like he is almost immobile at times, and we need interchangeable parts.

[jokin]

 

It really isn't going to be a choice of Bernier or Vargas in any case. More likely it is Nunez, Robinson and Rosario/Escobar vs. Vargas. The Twins must believe those four are at least as capable of delivering in that situation.

 

If they believe this, then they are mistaken, if only they check the "meaningless" stats, the answer is right there in front of them...