JO Berrios is #1 starting pitching prospect, correct?

[blairpaul715]

 

I don't know if Berrios is the best, but he is certainly the most impressive - the guy just keeps killing it level after level, years under league average every step of the way.

 

I'd put him right after Buxton on the untouchable list.

For me the only untouchable is Buxton, everyone else I would trade for the right piece, dont know what that is right now, but by the end of the yr we might. .........but I would lean toward a true ace pitcher that has 4 yrs or less on a contract(ala, Cole Hamels) or someone like him.................I personally really like Hamels as a pitcher and he has 3 plus yrs left on his contract, it wont happen, but i would be open to throwing a few prospects their way.

[twinsfan34]

I've never liked Meyer or May. Always have liked Berrios. 

 

I am mixed on Kohl Stewart. I can't figure out who/what he is or if he is an injury/TJ before he really gets good post TJ (a la Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay). But is he Tim Hudson or what?

 

I actually like Gonsalves and Thorpe more than Stewart. 

 

Berrios

Thorpe

Gonsalves

Meyer

Stewart

 

Very curious what this Hu guy can be...

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

 

For me the only untouchable is Buxton, everyone else I would trade for the right piece, dont know what that is right now, but by the end of the yr we might. .........but I would lean toward a true ace pitcher that has 4 yrs or less on a contract(ala, Cole Hamels) or someone like him.................I personally really like Hamels as a pitcher and he has 3 plus yrs left on his contract, it wont happen, but i would be open to throwing a few prospects their way.

I'd opt for the future on that one.

[Madre Dos]

I think the only way the opposition is going to beat him is if someone feeds him shrimp (they make him "go poof"). Wonderful kid, hard working, polite and BTW he has the cutest wife and daughter. Good Luck Jose....you deserve all the success that comes your way.

[Madre Dos]

Last year when Chih-Wei was pitching for Elizabethton, he had to cover 1st base. Of course, everyone sitting near the 1st base dugout stood up and in unison said "Hu's on 1st". Doesn't take much to entertain us in Elizabethton, but we do love our "baseball sons".

[nater79a]

Seems like we have a lot of "middle of the rotation" starters in the prospect pipeline. Which, to me, sounds just fine.

 

Give me a bunch of #2 or #3 starters, a lock down bullpen that strikes people out and a prolific offense.

I'll win a lot of games.

[blairpaul715]

 

Seems like we have a lot of "middle of the rotation" starters in the prospect pipeline. Which, to me, sounds just fine.

 

Give me a bunch of #2 or #3 starters, a lock down bullpen that strikes people out and a prolific offense.

I'll win a lot of games.

It will win alot of games, but IMO we need at least one ACE to win championships.........So, tho i prefer to find one in the draft or get lucky, we may have to trade for one.

[Thegrin]

Berrios is good and someone to look forward to, but if the Twins had to call up a pitcher, it would probably be Tommy Milone. 

and nobody has even mentioned Pat Dean.  He has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.05 whip in AAA Rochester. He's pitched 42 innings with 9 walks and 28 strikeouts. That is what I call "gettin' her done"  

[tobi0040]

 

Meyer is a better prospect than Berrios. 

 

FWIW, Berrios is not the best performing Lookouts' starting pitcher at this point, as well;  more like their third best pitcher.

 

I find it odd that you point out Meyer is a better prospect than Berrios, then point out Berrios is 3rd on his team.  Five guys that have received starts in Rochester have a lower ERA than Meyer.

 

Lookng at their numbers in the minors and factoring in age, it is hard for me to conclude Meyer is a better prospect than Berrios.  Saying he has more upside is a more convincing argument, but at this point I think Berrios has a really good shot at being a #2 or #3 starter in the big leagues.  I can't say the same about Meyer. He just isn't putting it all together and his age is getting to the point of non-prospect status. 

 

Berrios, A to AA, ages 19-21.  288 IP.  3.18 ERA.  1.16 WHIP.  9.15 K per 9.  2.7 BB per 9.  3.53 K per BB.  7.8 Hits per 9.

 

Meyer.  A to AAA, ages 22-25.  366 IP.  3.49 ERA.  1.30 WHIP.  10.4 K per 9.  3.9 BB pe 9. 2.64 K per BB.  7.8 Hits per 9.

[gunnarthor]

 

I find it odd that you point out Meyer is a better prospect than Berrios, then point out Berrios is 3rd on his team.  Five guys that have received starts in Rochester have a lower ERA than Meyer.

 

Lookng at their numbers in the minors and factoring in age, it is hard for me to conclude Meyer is a better prospect than Berrios.  Saying he has more upside is a more convincing argument, but at this point I think Berrios has a really good shot at being a #2 or #3 starter in the big leagues.  I can't say the same about Meyer. He just isn't putting it all together and his age is getting to the point of non-prospect status. 

 

Berrios, A to AA, ages 19-21.  288 IP.  3.18 ERA.  1.16 WHIP.  9.15 K per 9.  2.7 BB per 9.  3.53 K per BB.  7.8 Hits per 9.

 

Meyer.  A to AAA, ages 22-25.  366 IP.  3.49 ERA.  1.30 WHIP.  10.4 K per 9.  3.9 BB pe 9. 2.64 K per BB.  7.8 Hits per 9.

It's not about the stats.  It's about the stuff.  Meyer's fastball and slider are better than any pitch Berrios has.  His control right now is so bad that I'm willing to say Berrios is the better prospect but Thrylos isn't wrong if he wants to stay with Meyer.  Meyer's upside is a lot better than Berrios' upside. 

 

We fans are getting a little carried away with Berrios.  He isn't an ace in the wings.  He has the stuff of a #3 (which is very good). 

[Dantes929]

 

It will win alot of games, but IMO we need at least one ACE to win championships.........So, tho i prefer to find one in the draft or get lucky, we may have to trade for one.

That ACE doesn't really exist.  Of course I would like to have a Kershaw or whoever but those guys only pitch once every 4 times even in the playoff and they aren't unbeatable either.   I remember in 06  down the stretch everyone was saying Santana had to run the table to even have an outside chance of overtaking the Tigers.   He didn't win another game but we caught them all the same.  All different ways to skin a cat.  Just make the playoffs.   I am ok taking our chances with guys like Gibson, May and Hughes who aren't considered aces but certainly are capable of pitching like one any given night.  

[tobi0040]

 

It's not about the stats.  It's about the stuff.  Meyer's fastball and slider are better than any pitch Berrios has.  His control right now is so bad that I'm willing to say Berrios is the better prospect but Thrylos isn't wrong if he wants to stay with Meyer.  Meyer's upside is a lot better than Berrios' upside. 

 

We fans are getting a little carried away with Berrios.  He isn't an ace in the wings.  He has the stuff of a #3 (which is very good). 

The flip side of that is, are we over-rating Meyer simply because he throws harder?  In now his fourth professional year, followed by three college years, the "stuff" hasn't translated to results.

 

JO has almost as many strikeouts. His K to BB is way better.  He is allowing the same hits per 9.  Walks fewer. And allows far fewer base runners.  With a four pitch mix, great control, and a mid 90's fastball I think we may be short changing JO because Meyers fastball averages 2-3 more mph.

 

Throwing the control out for a second.  Wouldn't the better stuff translate to fewer hits and HR's per 9?  They are exactly the same, again JO being 19-22 versus Meyer 22-25.

[gunnarthor]

 

The flip side of that is, are we over-rating Meyer simply because he throws harder?  In now his fourth professional year, followed by three college years, the "stuff" hasn't translated to results.

 

JO has almost as many strikeouts. His K to BB is way better.  He is allowing the same hits per 9.  Walks fewer. And allows far fewer base runners.  With a four pitch mix, great control, and a mid 90's fastball I think we may be short changing JO because Meyers fastball averages 2-3 more mph.

 

Throwing the control out for a second.  Wouldn't the better stuff translate to fewer hits and HR's per 9?  They are exactly the same, again JO being 19-22 versus Meyer 22-25.

Before this season, Meyer's numbers were just fine.

 

And stats don't equate to stuff which is why no one is claiming Duffey is anything but a backend starter, at best.  The scouting grades on Meyer and Berrios are pretty clear that Meyer has the potential to be an ace while Berrios is a #3 (in scout speak.  Brad Radke was a #3 as well but pitched like an ace - he had as many 5 WAR seasons as Beckett and Lackey combined).  

 

Most prospect guys - McDaniel, Callis, BP etc - who have graded Berrios give him one plus pitch and a few other avg pitches.  He has more upside, he can improve.  BP saw him last week and their scout said his change up had the potential to be a plus pitch.  

 

Anyhow, with Meyer's control problems, I agree that Berrios is the better prospect now but Meyer still has a much better ceiling and I really hope he gets back on track.

[2wins87]

 

Since when is "control" not considered "stuff"?  Alex Meyer gets a lot of swing and misses because he only occasionally throws the ball where touching it with a bat is even possible.  94 on the corner is harder to hit than 97 down the middle.  Pinpoint control of multiple pitches is the hall mark of a big league starter.  I again implore Meyer to mix in more off speed and work on adding and especially subtracting on his fastball in order to improve command.  It also makes 97 a lot harder to hit.

 

This is a good point.  Control and command might not equal stuff for a guy without any above average pitches, but Berrios has got 3 or 4 above average ones which he can command even if we can't point to a single wipeout pitch.  One or two of his pitches might get graded as plus depending on the scout too.  This will be effective at the major league level.  I was one who had Meyer ahead of Berrios preseason, but Meyer is looking like he's still got a ways to go right now.

 

[jimmer]

There are plenty of scouts who feel Meyer is bound for the bullpen and have thought that for awhile.  Kiley from Fangraphs has said exactly that.

 

It's hard to believe that, at this point, he's going to be any kind of ace.

[John Kelsey]

Meyer reminds me of Dellin Betances a bit. If that's what he ends up as, that's still a pretty valuable piece to have, even if he's not starting. 

[nater79a]

 

That ACE doesn't really exist.  Of course I would like to have a Kershaw or whoever but those guys only pitch once every 4 times even in the playoff and they aren't unbeatable either.   I remember in 06  down the stretch everyone was saying Santana had to run the table to even have an outside chance of overtaking the Tigers.   He didn't win another game but we caught them all the same.  All different ways to skin a cat.  Just make the playoffs.   I am ok taking our chances with guys like Gibson, May and Hughes who aren't considered aces but certainly are capable of pitching like one any given night.  

 

Right. If you need to, go out at the trade deadline and make a deal for a front-line starter to be your de-facto ace for the remainder of the season. Preferably, that pitcher would be a free agent at the end of the season or have one year remaining on his deal.  I don't like getting tied up with big dollars for a pitcher over many years. One pitch is all it takes...something snaps in the elbow and you're stuck.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure Berrios has #3 stuff, write-ups I've read on him is 3 plus pitches and can command them very well. He may not be an ace from a stuff standpoint, but mentally he's there and he should be a very good number 2. I had Meyer higher going into the season, but this tail spin is certainly making me rethink that. Not quite ready to move them, but if this continues into mid-season, Berrios will be the better prospect in my book.

 

That said, Meyer is on his first option. I'd give him all of this year and all of next year as a starter before I started thinking bullpen. Too much potential to give up on starting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Berrios might be in contention for the #1 SP prospect in all of MLB soon, if he keeps pitching like this and a few guys ahead of him graduate, get hurt, etc.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I ranked Berrios as the #2 overall prospect in the system in the Prospect Handbook. I expected to get heat for it. I never did. And now I don't deserve it.

[jimmer]

 

remember in 06  down the stretch everyone was saying Santana had to run the table to even have an outside chance of overtaking the Tigers.   He didn't win another game but we caught them all the same.  

He went 3-1 in his last 5 games in 2006 and in the two games where he didn't get a win, he gave up 5 ER total.

[jimmer]

 

remember in 06  down the stretch everyone was saying Santana had to run the table to even have an outside chance of overtaking the Tigers.   He didn't win another game but we caught them all the same.  

He went 3-1 in his last 5 games in 2006 and in the two games where he didn't get a win, he gave up 5 ER total.

 

Overall, the Twins went 27-7 in games he started that year.

[Vanimal46]

For those that have seen Alex Meyer pitch, because I'll be honest I have not seen him in person or on TV, do his control issues come into play further along in the ballgame? I get that he is more valuable to the organization as a starter, but maybe being a closer is a better fit for him.

[prouster]

 

I would like to think that, like May, [Meyer] will eventually make that last step in the maturing process that will get him past his control problems.  

 

Berrios is a gamer - but I wonder if the Johan Santana route may be his path.  A promotion into the bullpen that transitions into a starter role.  The team can see how his stuff plays at the major league level and gradually transition him into the rotation. 

 

I'm curious as to why you think this about Berrios? In my mind, he has been the organization's best pitching prospect since last year, and he seems much more likely to last as a starter than Meyer, who is looking more and more like the bullpen will be his long term spot.

 

I guess Berrios and Santana are both Latino men who are short in stature for MLB standards, though I think that's where the comparison ends. Santana never had the prospect pedigree that Berrios does, so his success seemed like it came from nowhere. Berrios, on the other hand, because of his MiLB track record, seems like he could be a legitimate ace. Basically the only thing scouts ever knock about him is his height. To my knowledge, there is no proof that shorter pitchers are less successful or less durable than taller ones. Personally, I'm just as excited for Berrios to arrive in the Twin Cities as I am Buxton and Sano.

 

As for Stewart, he's still really young and can definitely come around.

[blairpaul715]

 

My guess is when Graham comes off the list Zach Granite will go on.

I like that guess, but I will say Felix Jorge.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I had them Berrios, Stewart, Meyer.

 

Now I would probably have them - Berrios, (long pause), Gonsalves, Hu, (small pause), Stewart, Meyer, Rogers, Thorpe, Duffey.

 

I endorse this order, and it saved me typing time.......Maybe I flip Gonsalves and Hu though....

[Steve Lein]

 

For those that have seen Alex Meyer pitch, because I'll be honest I have not seen him in person or on TV, do his control issues come into play further along in the ballgame? I get that he is more valuable to the organization as a starter, but maybe being a closer is a better fit for him.

 

When I've seen him he's either been "on" or "off."

 

When he's "off," you have no idea where the ball is going.

 

When he's "on," hitters don't have a prayer.

 

But even when he's been "off" a few of those times, he's been effectively wild.

 

Hopefully he can find some level of consistency.

[Vanimal46]

 

When I've seen him he's either been "on" or "off."

 

When he's "off," you have no idea where the ball is going.

 

When he's "on," hitters don't have a prayer.

 

But even when he's been "off" a few of those times, he's been effectively wild.

 

Hopefully he can find some level of consistency.

 

 

Gotcha, thanks for that. So it doesn't matter if it's the 1st or 8th inning with him, he's either on or off depending on the day. Which would not work out at all in a closer role.

[Dantes929]

 

He went 3-1 in his last 5 games in 2006 and in the two games where he didn't get a win, he gave up 5 ER total.

I shouldn't rely on memory.  Twins lost 2 of the last 3 games he started.   3 of the last 4 if you count the playoffs.  Twins lost on Sept 15 and 21.     My point wasn't to denigrate Santana and we certainly would not have made the playoffs without him.   Just that aces don't guarantee wins and that you don't need to be an ace to pitch like an ace on any given day.  If we make the playoffs and Hughes, Gibson, May and Santana are all pitching well I will be ok with our chances.   In fact I would be ok no matter what since no one thinks they will get there.   I really liked Santana and back  in the day advocated just keeping him for that last year even with him saying he would invoke the no trade clause.    In retrospect it would have likely given us another division title and who knows what would have happened once in the playoffs.