Why pelfry?

[DEWunderlich]

Why does a team that has lost 90+ games 4 years in a row continue to waste their time with a horrible pitcer like this?  Isn't there anybody in our minor league system we can plug in instead to start getting them some experience?  Pelry had had way too many opportunities to prove himself here.

[ashbury]

"Why, Pelfrey?"

[USAFChief]

Why Pelfrey!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Et tu, Pelfrey?

[Rosterman]

Okay, the Twins DO have an investment in Mike Pelfrey. He also has an investment in himself. This is his year! he needs to prove to the Twins that he is a starter and be given every opportunity to shine. If he doesn't shine, if he pitchers like he averaged the past two seasons, he will not have a decent payday on his horizon. If he pitches his heart out, wins games, keeps the team in the game, he will be able to continue onto a decent multi-year contract and many millions of dollars.

 

He was the odd man out coming out of spring training, but like they say "you can never have too many pitchers" which is shown by the Twins losing two starters in the first week of the season. Happily, unless you count Milone and Pelfrey in this category, they won't have the slew of names like Yohan Pino, Cole DeVries, Kris Johnson, Esmerling Vasquez, Sam Deduno, P.J. Walters, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers to track out to the mound. Even Jason Marquis, who remarkably found a job in 2015. Pelfrey might be the one-year hit of Scott Diamond (and don't resign him, please, Terry).

 

So, right now, the Twins have a lot of players who need to prove that they not only can belong on the Twins major league roster, but also play in the major leagues, but hopefully not with the Twins as the young guys move forward. It is Milon and Pelfrey's job to keep. It is Robinson and Schafer's job to stay. It is Escobar's job to keep a job. 

 

Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Dozier, Pinto will still have a longer leash. Even Aaron Hicks will stay in the mix for the year.

 

But Pelfrey has the choice to become someone who can get a multi-year contract, of become the next Nick Blackburn or Phil Humber, and where are they today? One no-hitter does not a pitcher make. Bullpen or AAAA has-been.

 

[gil4]

 

But Pelfrey has the choice to become someone who can get a multi-year contract, of become the next Nick Blackburn or Phil Humber, and where are they today? One no-hitter does not a pitcher make. Bullpen or AAAA has-been.

 

He looked a lot more like Blackburn/Humber than the multi-year contract guy today, but that's also what he looked like the last time the Twins signed him to a multi-year contract, so I'm not going to try to predict.

[Hrbowski]

Because he is a veteran, it can't get simpler than that.

[Danchat]

So much for Pelfrey out-pitching Milone in Spring Training. Yes, Pelfrey did pitch better in ST.

ST stats don't matter, though. Pelfrey hasn't been a serviceable starter since (arguably) 2011. 

 

A move to the bullpen could save his career, but I guess it can't be helped now. Honestly, the best-case scenario here is if Pelfrey is so bad he gets demoted to the bullpen (after room is made via demoting Thompson/cutting Boyer). I think he can be a bullpen arm.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Because he is a veteran, it can't get simpler than that.

 

Clearly his experience at not being all that great is of huge value to us this year.  

[KirbyHawk75]

I have heard he is a "Clubhouse Chemist."  

 

Seriously.. He should NEVER bitch about not being a starter again.

[jokin]

 

So much for Pelfrey out-pitching Milone in Spring Training. Yes, Pelfrey did pitch better in ST.

ST stats don't matter, though. Pelfrey hasn't been a serviceable starter since (arguably) 2011. 

 

A move to the bullpen could save his career, but I guess it can't be helped now. Honestly, the best-case scenario here is if Pelfrey is so bad he gets demoted to the bullpen (after room is made via demoting Thompson/cutting Boyer). I think he can be a bullpen arm.

 

The split-fingered FB looked intriguing today, the regular FB, not so much.  If he can effectively mix the two (and better locate the FB to avoid those gopher balls), he could be a decent one-inning guy. 

 

But his days as a starter should be shortly coming to an end for good.

Seriously, is there any team in baseball that has shown this much patience for this much mediocrity?

[Rigby]

Mediocrity just called and said they were offended,

[jokin]

 

Mediocrity just called and said they were offended,

 

Well-stated.    I used to use stronger adjectives, but we   now strive for avoiding harsher language on TD, lest some feel it is somehow   a personal attack.   And to be fair,   over his collective body of work with the Twins,   Pelfrey did string together two months of effective results from June through to August of 2013- with a 3.79 FIP.  

[jorgenswest]

FIP isn't a very useful descriptor when a pitcher struggles with runners on base. Those pitchers tend to have FIPs that are lower than their performance or skill.

 

Throw out the FIP with Pelfrey. Look at performance. How many of those starts in those two months went 7 innings? How did he do with runners on base?

[Thegrin]

Fastballs in the mid ninety's that moves.  Veteran status.  As ugly as it was today he is worth a good look..

[huhguy]

 

Okay, the Twins DO have an investment in Mike Pelfrey. He also has an investment in himself. This is his year! he needs to prove to the Twins that he is a starter and be given every opportunity to shine. If he doesn't shine, if he pitchers like he averaged the past two seasons, he will not have a decent payday on his horizon. If he pitches his heart out, wins games, keeps the team in the game, he will be able to continue onto a decent multi-year contract and many millions of dollars.

 

He was the odd man out coming out of spring training, but like they say "you can never have too many pitchers" which is shown by the Twins losing two starters in the first week of the season. Happily, unless you count Milone and Pelfrey in this category, they won't have the slew of names like Yohan Pino, Cole DeVries, Kris Johnson, Esmerling Vasquez, Sam Deduno, P.J. Walters, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers to track out to the mound. Even Jason Marquis, who remarkably found a job in 2015. Pelfrey might be the one-year hit of Scott Diamond (and don't resign him, please, Terry).

 

So, right now, the Twins have a lot of players who need to prove that they not only can belong on the Twins major league roster, but also play in the major leagues, but hopefully not with the Twins as the young guys move forward. It is Milon and Pelfrey's job to keep. It is Robinson and Schafer's job to stay. It is Escobar's job to keep a job. 

 

Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Dozier, Pinto will still have a longer leash. Even Aaron Hicks will stay in the mix for the year.

 

But Pelfrey has the choice to become someone who can get a multi-year contract, of become the next Nick Blackburn or Phil Humber, and where are they today? One no-hitter does not a pitcher make. Bullpen or AAAA has-been.

umm.Escobar doesnt have a job...even though he proves consistently that he should have,,,

 

[Craig Arko]

With both Santana and Nolasco out, it seemed inevitable that Pelfrey and May would be in. Let the best pitcher win.

[jokin]

 

FIP isn't a very useful descriptor when a pitcher struggles with runners on base. Those pitchers tend to have FIPs that are lower than their performance or skill.

Throw out the FIP with Pelfrey. Look at performance. How many of those starts in those two months went 7 innings? How did he do with runners on base?

 

I didnt'say he was great or even good, just slightly better than league average and definitely one of the most effective Twins starters over that stretch of time (faint praise, indeed).    Over June-August, in 82 IP he gave up 83 hits, with close to a league average BB/9 rate.  In 14 starts he pitched into the 6th or 7th inning 10 times, averaging close to 6 IP per start (higher than league average), with a 3.73 ERA (league average 4.15), slightly above  league average BABIP of .302,  his strand rate was near 75%- again above league average of 72.6%.

 

Obviously, earned run numbers that were not sustainable over a long period of time, particularly because of his K/9 rate being 16% lower than league average, even during his run of success.  

 

His 2013 velocity numbers are surprisingly at, close, or even above where they had been every year since 2008.  I'm thinking that this information, plus these 14 starts convinced Ryan to re-sign Pelfrey.   Obviously, it was throwing away more money needlessly.  He was looking for that guy he thought could return to being the bulldog innings-eater that he was on the Mets, on the cheap.  NL pitchers that are also damaged goods has proven to be a bad bet for the Twins, a bet he worsened by doubling down on that bet.

[Wille]

Personally, I don't think any pitcher with five seasons of between 29 and 33 starts without ever recording a Batting Average Against under .275 (and that was in the NL) really deserves the opportunity to be starting in the majors once again so that he has an 'opportunity to shine' and prove he is starter material.

 

Pelfrey might be a decent guy, but he is an eminently hittable pitcher - always has been, and I'm willing to wager always will be.  He might be able to pitch at replacement level toward the back-end of a bullpen, but it's hard for me to imagine him ever being able to serve as a contributing member of a championship caliber pitching staff.

 

I thought it was a very bad signing when Ryan originally signed him before the 2013 season, but that misstep was eclipsed with the inexplicable 2-year extension.  I really don't understand why Ryan and the Twins are willing to waste their limited budget and playing time on players such as Palfrey when they clearly don't have what is needed to move this team to where they ultimately want to be (or at least where I hope they want to be!).

[stringer bell]

I didn't see much of Pelf's outing, but he threw some good pitches. He just can't afford to pitch from behind all the time.

[jokin]

 

Personally, I don't think any pitcher with five seasons of between 29 and 33 starts without ever recording a Batting Average Against under .275 (and that was in the NL) really deserves the opportunity to be starting in the majors once again so that he has an 'opportunity to shine' and prove he is starter material.

 

Pelfrey might be a decent guy, but he is an eminently hittable pitcher - always has been, and I'm willing to wager always will be.  He might be able to pitch at replacement level toward the back-end of a bullpen, but it's hard for me to imagine him ever being able to serve as a contributing member of a championship caliber pitching staff.

 

I thought it was a very bad signing when Ryan originally signed him before the 2013 season, but that misstep was eclipsed with the inexplicable 2-year extension.  I really don't understand why Ryan and the Twins are willing to waste their limited budget and playing time on players such as Palfrey when they clearly don't have what is needed to move this team to where they ultimately want to be (or at least where I hope they want to be!).

 

 

Great post.  It's like Terry Ryan's secretary needs to type in a special asterisk both before and after every FA pitching name from the NL.  He apparently is the forgetful type.

[USAFChief]

The split-fingered FB looked intriguing today, the regular FB, not so much. If he can effectively mix the two (and better locate the FB to avoid those gopher balls), he could be a decent one-inning guy.

 

But his days as a starter should be shortly coming to an end for good.

Seriously, is there any team in baseball that has shown this much patience for this much mediocrity?

I thought when the game started, his four seem fastball was what looked intriguing. Mid 90's consistently, decent location. It was everything else that didnt look so good to me. He's always lacked secondary pitches, and IMO still does. Also, as the game wore on, the four seem velocity started to dip. It's hard enough to throw one pitch and get outs as it is, but when you have to do it more than once through a lineup and that pitch is weakening, it becomes near impossible to be consistently successful.

 

Moving him to the pen and trying him there seems like such a no brainer to me. He might throw even harder, and an inning with one quality pitch can be done, multiple innings not so much. Even his secondary pitches would probably have more chance of success in small doses.

[old nurse]

 Nunez should be getting more at bats as he has an OPS of 2.000. One game shouldn't be what makes or breaks a season. At this point I would say that there are about 20 players underperforming expectations. There is nothing definative about the season.

[jorgenswest]

I thought when the game started, his four seem fastball was what looked intriguing. Mid 90's consistently, decent location. It was everything else that didnt look so good to me. He's always lacked secondary pitches, and IMO still does. Also, as the game wore on, the four seem velocity started to dip. It's hard enough to throw one pitch and get outs as it is, but when you have to do it more than once through a lineup and that pitch is weakening, it becomes near impossible to be consistently successful.

Moving him to the pen and trying him there seems like such a no brainer to me. He might throw even harder, and an inning with one quality pitch can be done, multiple innings not so much. Even his secondary pitches would probably have more chance of success in small doses.

Adding some number to Chiefs valued observations and words. The numbers don't necessarily paint the same picture or a more accurate picture, but together build a picture of Pelfrey's performance.

 

Brooks baseball and Fangraphs.

 

Pelfrey threw 4 four seam fastballs yesterday. He used his sinker 44 times. Neither was very effective yesterday. He also threw 16 splitters, 10 curves and 6 sliders. According to fangraphs, the curve ball was most effective and fastball was least effective. Five of 7 balls in play (no out) were off fastballs.

 

His velocity was best early on fitting 96 on pitch 9. It did stay 94-95 through pitch 47. Unfortunately while the velocity was good, the fastballs weren't missing enough bats.

 

It would take some matching with the game account, but I wonder if his velocity or effectiveness also dipped with runners on base. Relievers need to be able to pitch from the stretch and maintain effectiveness.

[USAFChief]

Adding some number to Chiefs valued observations and words. The numbers don't necessarily paint the same picture or a more accurate picture, but together build a picture of Pelfrey's performance.

Brooks baseball and Fangraphs.

Pelfrey threw 4 four seam fastballs yesterday. He used his sinker 44 times. Neither was very effective yesterday. He also threw 16 splitters, 10 curves and 6 sliders. According to fangraphs, the curve ball was most effective and fastball was least effective. Five of 7 balls in play (no out) were off fastballs.

His velocity was best early on fitting 96 on pitch 9. It did stay 94-95 through pitch 47. Unfortunately while the velocity was good, the fastballs weren't missing enough bats.

It would take some matching with the game account, but I wonder if his velocity or effectiveness also dipped with runners on base. Relievers need to be able to pitch from the stretch and maintain effectiveness.

I'm going to have to dispute the claim of "4 four seam fastballs."

 

He was not throwing a 95 MPH "sinker." Those where 4 seamers.

[bird]

Pelfrey was an uninspiring signing. Both times. I think Ryan has always viewed Pelfrey as a back of the rotation replacement level guy "with benefits". Frankly, his contract is pretty much in line with the market these days for this type of pitcher, isn't it? The benefits being innings and a veteran presence. This hasn't worked out so well for Mr. Ryan. In this particular case, I think it's fair to say "questionable decision, bad results."

 

Pelfrey wouldn't be here if there had been in-house options ready to go. So the debate should be more about who's ready to go. Let's just hope May comes out dealing. Let's hope Meyer's dismal first start was a fluke. Let's let some prospects make a couple two-three dominating starts. If THAT happens, and they keep an under-performing starter in the MLB rotation, THEN it'll be time to do some complaining. If no one comes through like that at Rochester and Chattanooga, then the complaints about the guys Ryan brought in is basically relegated to a rehash of why he didn't bring in someone else instead. When someone asks "Why Pelfrey", I think the next question right now is "Why Meyer".

[COtwin]

If Pelfrey keeps putting up numbers like he has then I think "why Meyer" is a poor question. If Pelf is losing us games then Meyer can't do worse than that. I would also like to see what Allen could do with him.

[jokin]

 

 

 

. Let's let some prospects make a couple two-three dominating starts. If THAT happens, and they keep an under-performing starter in the MLB rotation, THEN it'll be time to do some complaining. If no one comes through like that at Rochester and Chattanooga, then the complaints about the guys Ryan brought in is basically relegated to a rehash of why he didn't bring in someone else instead. When someone asks "Why Pelfrey", I think the next question right now is "Why Meyer".

 

 

Yeah, it's not like it's ever happened before-   that the best prospects were dominating for "a couple two-three" starts, and then after that,  two-three-four-five.... more starts, and STILL not called up.....  Oh wait, we've seen this bad movie before.... a few times.  

 

The answer to your rhetorical closing question is simple:  you call up your best prospects because it's foolish to continue to waste starts on guys that have no business doing so, and will soon either be out of the organization, or in a new role within the organization.

[bird]

 

If Pelfrey keeps putting up numbers like he has then I think "why Meyer" is a poor question. If Pelf is losing us games then Meyer can't do worse than that. I would also like to see what Allen could do with him.

 

 

Meyer threw 87 pitches, 44 for strikes, in 5 innings in his last start. He gave up six walks and eight hits. How does this jibe with your opinion? Meyer is getting competent coaching right where he is. Allen isn't a miracle worker.

[bird]

 

Yeah, it's not like it's ever happened before-   that the best prospects were dominating for "a couple two-three" starts, and then after that,  two-three-four-five.... more starts, and STILL not called up.....  Oh wait, we've seen this bad movie before.... a few times.  

 

The answer to your rhetorical closing question is simple:  you call up your best prospects because it's foolish to continue to waste starts on guys that have no business doing so, and will soon either be out of the organization, or in a new role within the organization.

 

 

 

Perhaps with the exception of May for multiple consecutive starts last year, you're going to have to give me some examples of all these best prospects who have gone multiple dominating starts and stayed in AAA. You say it's happened a few times.

 

Your simple answer to the rhetorical question is a "well duh" answer. Except for the important caveat that it makes perfect sense for the pros making these decisions to make a judgment about whether Meyer would necessarily do better than Pelfrey and whether Meyer is best-served in terms of his development. I certainly don't have an opinion about that, and you and the Twins appear to have a difference of opinion regarding this important caveat.