What we know, TR doesn't

[gunnarthor]

 

Dexter Fowler was available in trade, reasonably, twice.

That's true.  The Astros were looking for a starting third baseman and a pitcher.  Maybe Plouffe/Milone or Escobar/Milone got it done.  I don't think I would have done that trade.  (And for all the griping about Hunter's defense, Fowler graded out just as bad or worse in center). 

[mnfireman]

A few things happened on the way to the ball field:

1.) The CF of the future didn't pan out (Hicks) despite several second chances - didn't count on that. This wrecked the OF defense. Benson & Hicks sounded sexy a couple of years ago...not so much now.

2.) Mauer got hurt after signing the contract-of-ill-repute (as some feel, me not included). This wrecked the C position. 5 or 6 good years out of that contract before switching positions sounded sexy a couple of years ago...not so much now.

3.) Pitching prospects got hurt, traded or didn't pan out (and proven veterans got hurt, busted or didn't pan out). Gibson, Worley, Wimmer, Perkins (as a starter), Blackburn, Liriano, Slowey, Nolasco & Santana sounded sexy a couple of....ahh you get the point. 

4.) Gardy's pets playing everyday (Florimon, Dedunu, etc...)

5.) Gardy's goats getting run out of town (Lohse, Garza, etc...) The goats looked better than the pets.

6.) The only negative about Ryan that I can come up with....not committing to a total rebuild. A five year plan would bearing fruit right about now, but it might be another five until these prospects (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Gordon, Meyer, May, Stewart, etc...) will be winning divisions.

[Mike Sixel]

Wait, I'm supposed to believe Ryan when he says Buxton will be up soon, but realize he's "not lying, but he sort of is" when he has said the last two years they will be competitive and are not rebuilding?

 

You can't have it both ways.

 

[jokin]

 

That's true.  The Astros were looking for a starting third baseman and a pitcher.  Maybe Plouffe/Milone or Escobar/Milone got it done.  I don't think I would have done that trade.  (And for all the griping about Hunter's defense, Fowler graded out just as bad or worse in center). 

 

We actually had a TD conversation about acquiring Fowler in the offseason, particularly in the wake of his strong performance against the Twins, both in the field and at the plate- in 4 games against the Twins, his slash line is .429/.529/.786/(1.315).  Yeah, notwithstanding this last season in Houston, Fowler has actually graded out OK in terms of dWAR previous to 2014, but yes, he isn't a great CFer. But, comparing him to the current alternatives in CF, not in RF, he's better, or at worst, about the same, as the 4 alternatives, and at the plate, he's obviously much, much better than all of them.  

 

I would have been calling on Colorado after the 2013 Twins season and after removing the only 2 guys that could play CF via trade in the preceding offseason and the first Hicks debacle, and gotten in Fowler a solidifying presence in CF offering a 2-3 year safety placeholder while things were sorted out around the rest of the diamond.

[bird]

 

I think good GMs try and "block" prospects all the time. Particularly when the prospect being "blocked" hasn't gotten out of A ball. My guess is good GMs don't worry about "blocking" prospects because they know the most likely outcome is that nobody is being "blocked" at all. Most prospects never force their way into the big leagues, including shiny ones like Byron Buxton. And if they do, that's a marvelous situation to be in...having two players is WAY better than having zero.

If TR truly is purposely punting CF solely on the HOPE that some day out there in the future Byron Buxton MIGHT be a competent MLB CFer, we need a new GM.

 

 

I agree with most everything here. The way I see it, Ryan is doing precisely that. He's "blocking" May and Meyer, because his field people are giving him feedback that leads him to believe neither is going to suffer from a few more minor league starts. Many fans are up in arms about this. He's blocking Tonkin, Burdi, Reed, and others with Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer and others. This is not a decision made by the GM in a vacuum. They made a call. Lots of fans are up in arms about this. And right or wrong, he's blocking Buxton and Rosario right now, because he's convinced both need a little more seasoning. Most fans are not up in arms about this, however. Instead, they're up in arms over Hicks, Robinson, and Schaefer. They want a better player to be blocking Buxton. Not sure where this "A" ball stuff is coming from, but the Twins are making judgments about readiness based on real-time personal observations, not based on what level someone's at.

 

Criticism of Ryan is warranted over his misjudgments regarding CF following his good judgments (my opinion) in trading Span and Revere. He didn't have a remotely acceptable backup plan in year one. His year two backup plan was better but still not good, and it backfired a bit. This year's backup plan, while imperfect, was acceptable to me, with Rosario, Hicks, Schaefer, and Robinson all in place, and I think it might be a good deal in the end. Why? Because he avoided the alternatives of trading away valuable assets for a temporary (possible) upgrade or signing a FA (maybe but not certainly) upgrade over what he has given Paulie to start the season. If you think Buxton is as uncertain as you suggest, or is 54 months away as mike wants wins suggests, then your concern becomes more understandable than if you think Buxton is here for good by September as jimmer suggests.

 

So, I don't think the GM punted, nor do I think he's misguided in banking on Buxton making it. You make it sound like Buxton is just one more crap shoot out there. If I judge Ryan on his entire body of work regarding the CF problem (the Span, Revere, Hicks, Santana, Fuld, Robinson, Schaefer, Buxton moves, and even all the Maestro-type guys), he keeps his job, even with the obvious mistakes considered.

[jokin]

 

Wait, I'm supposed to believe Ryan when he says Buxton will be up soon, but realize he's "not lying, but he sort of is" when he has said the last two years they will be competitive and are not rebuilding?

 

You can't have it both ways.

 

And isn't that really the crux of the problem for any team that tries to do things halfway?  The math just doesn't work when you try to be all-in "competitive" (but really only half-way with iffy veteran FAs) and  stealth half- "rebuilding" (Terry, it was obvious you were half-re-building when you traded away the only viable centerfielders for pitching- pitching that was three years out from contributing at the major league level)

[twinscowboysbulls]

Let's not over react since it's only been two games but ....

 

1. Nolasco is same old same old - innings eater at best

2. Milone & Pelfrey are no better than Nolasco

3. Bullpen is awful

 

2015 is declared over for the Twins' playoff chances

 

Hope the 2016 draft has better top prospects than 2015

 

Hope Buxton, Sano, Burdi, Reed, Z. Jones, May, Meyer, Rosario have good first halves in the minors so that they get called up after the All Star break.

Yes, this is all TRUE and what we all HOPE. The problem is TR will not find them spots in the bigs. He will continue to block them for god knows what reason...

[SwainZag]

 

 

6.) The only negative about Ryan that I can come up with....not committing to a total rebuild. A five year plan would bearing fruit right about now, but it might be another five until these prospects (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Gordon, Meyer, May, Stewart, etc...) will be winning divisions.

 

5 years ago the Twins were starting their road on a division winning, 94 wins season. 4 years ago the Twins brought back a little changed team at defending that division title.  The absolute earliest a 5 year rebuild plan could have started was 3.5 years ago during that injury riddling horrid thing we called 2011.  

[USAFChief]

I agree with most everything here. The way I see it, Ryan is doing precisely that. He's "blocking" May and Meyer, because his field people are giving him feedback that leads him to believe neither is going to suffer from a few more minor league starts. Many fans are up in arms about this. He's blocking Tonkin, Burdi, Reed, and others with Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer and others. This is not a decision made by the GM in a vacuum. They made a call. Lots of fans are up in arms about this. And right or wrong, he's blocking Buxton and Rosario right now, because he's convinced both need a little more seasoning. Most fans are not up in arms about this, however. Instead, they're up in arms over Hicks, Robinson, and Schaefer. They want a better player to be blocking Buxton. Not sure where this "A" ball stuff is coming from, but the Twins are making judgments about readiness based on real-time personal observations, not based on what level someone's at.

 

Criticism of Ryan is warranted over his misjudgments regarding CF following his good judgments (my opinion) in trading Span and Revere. He didn't have a remotely acceptable backup plan in year one. His year two backup plan was better but still not good, and it backfired a bit. This year's backup plan, while imperfect, was acceptable to me, with Rosario, Hicks, Schaefer, and Robinson all in place, and I think it might be a good deal in the end. Why? Because he avoided the alternatives of trading away valuable assets for a temporary (possible) upgrade or signing a FA (maybe but not certainly) upgrade over what he has given Paulie to start the season. If you think Buxton is as uncertain as you suggest, or is 54 months away as mike wants wins suggests, then your concern becomes more understandable than if you think Buxton is here for good by September as jimmer suggests.

 

So, I don't think the GM punted, nor do I think he's misguided in banking on Buxton making it. You make it sound like Buxton is just one more crap shoot out there. If I judge Ryan on his entire body of work regarding the CF problem (the Span, Revere, Hicks, Santana, Fuld, Robinson, Schaefer, Buxton moves, and even all the Maestro-type guys), he keeps his job, even with the obvious mistakes considered.

A few rebuttals:

 

If May and Meyer need more time, they're by definition not blocked, no?

 

If Tonkin, Burdi, Reed et al are ready, but blocked by current bullpen members, because the staff "made a call," that's an argument the current staff should be replaced, no? Or an argument they're not ready, which goes back to my point..."blocking" of prospects is a myth that rarely happens and isn't worth planning for. I don't see how it's not one or the other.

 

Ditto Rosario and Buxton...if they need more seasoning, they're not blocked.

 

And the A ball thing is no mystery...neither of these two have had any success higher than that level.

 

For me, it's simple. I don't believe in rebuilds, and I distrust prospects. Put the best team on the field at the big league level you can and worry about finding space for a prospect when and if that becomes a "problem."

 

What I'm not fine with is waiting for years hoping for a future that might or might not happen, while the present is teh suck.

[glunn]

It is still early in the season.  Maybe the Twins will start a winning streak tomorrow. Based on history, things will get a lot more positive in here if the Twins can reel off three or four nice wins.

 

Chief makes a good point about allowing young players to season.  In particular, it seems to me that Meyer and May might each benefit from a little more time at AAA, but I am hoping that May comes up very soon.  

 

[Jerr]

 

BUT, 21 flippin' runs to no flippin' runs

oops, I was thinking of the brewers first loss

[jimmer]

 

It is still early in the season.  Maybe the Twins will start a winning streak tomorrow. Based on history, things will get a lot more positive in here if the Twins can reel off three or four nice wins.

 

Chief makes a good point about allowing young players to season.  In particular, it seems to me that Meyer and May might each benefit from a little more time at AAA, but I am hoping that May comes up very soon.  

At 25 years old I think both should be well seasoned already and If they aren't seasoned enough by now shame on the organization. At this point, the team is just wasting their bullets versus inferior talent as the team waits for some magical moment when it's the exact right time for these guys.  They shouldn't be getting to the majors and experiencing their growing pains during their prime years which is what is going to happen.

 

Additionally, maybe these guys aren't the talents they were hyped up to be since we've trade for them since they can't break into THIS rotation. Meyer hyped to be an Ace/#2, and at 25, still in the minors without even a cup of coffee in the bigs.

[Mike Sixel]

I am ok with blocking top prospects, with 1-2 year deals. 4 year deals for mediocre, mid-30s pitchers? Not so much.

 

That's what he did wrong, imo, this year.....unless they now believe May and Meyer aren't all that good, in which case, we should be judging their ability to make trades.

 

I am ok with blocking prospects with short term deals, with deals on upside guys, with guys you might be able to trade......if the prospects work out. I'm not good with signing 3 guys to multiple years that aren't all that good.....

[Riverbrian]

DEPTH:

 

The choice is losing a player without options and having no depth. 

 

Or... 

 

Sending a player down with options to the minors and having depth. 

 

The Smart move is to send players with options down because you need depth especially in the rotation.  

 

SERVICE TIME:

 

I know there are some who want players to learn on the job but until the collective bargaining agreement is changed. That year of service time is huge and every major league team considers it and getting mad at them for considering it isn't worth the effort... See Kris Bryant. 

 

I know some say: "Buy out the first years of free agency"... That may be fine for the superstars but that isn't always a prudent move for the next tier and the next tier are important to a team. And they don't always sign... See George Springer and Jordan Zimmerman. Some like to reach FA as soon as possible and you can't blame them for that.  

 

I think it's somewhat irresponsible to burn the service time while a youngster struggles. See Aaron Hicks... Hicks has burned way too much service time performing badly. By the time he figures it out and becomes the 5 tool superstar player we KNOW he will be... We get that superstar for a year and then he will be FA and be that superstar player for someone else. 

 

So they got to be ready... Without question ready.

 

I think Terry Ryan knows all of this stuff.

 

So... When they are ready... They will be here when depth is needed to be called on. If they are not ready... Someone else will come when depth is needed to be called on.     

 

 

 

[jokin]

 

It is still early in the season.  Maybe the Twins will start a winning streak tomorrow. Based on history, things will get a lot more positive in here if the Twins can reel off three or four nice wins.

 

 

 

Yeah, it's not time to push the panic button yet.   Unfortunately, there are other history signals that don't portend well for this season:

 

 

 

 

 

Baseball Reference-
‏
The MN Twins are only the 2nd team in history to play with a DH & be shut out in their 1st two games of the season, joining the expansion 1977 Mariners

 

[twinscowboysbulls]

Looks like we might get May after all, unless he is bypassed for someone else...You just never know with good ole JR!

[chopper0080]

As far as the concept of "blocking" prospects, since when is having too much talent or competition a bad thing for a team? Players get hurt. Players can be traded. Positions can be changed. I know it is a strange concept, but on some teams, the manager has to work to figure a way to get all of his talent on the field. Maybe we can try that approach sometime.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

DEPTH:

 

The choice is losing a player without options and having no depth. 

 

Or... 

 

Sending a player down with options to the minors and having depth. 

 

The Smart move is to send players with options down because you need depth especially in the rotation.  

Milone had an option remaining too.

 

And when none of your MLB roster has any remaining options (like our original opening day bullpen, except for Fien), you're eventually going to have to release someone to see any of that depth anyway.  Defaulting to keep every out-of-option guy first is in many cases just delaying the inevitable, and wasting evaluation opportunities.

[Riverbrian]

 

Milone had an option remaining too.

 

And when none of your MLB roster has any remaining options (like our original opening day bullpen, except for Fien), you're eventually going to have to release someone to see any of that depth anyway.  Defaulting to keep every out-of-option guy first is in many cases just delaying the inevitable, and wasting evaluation opportunities.

 

Agreed... But... you'll have a better idea who to release based on actual performance in 2015. If you go with the kid and cut the vet... You've eliminated options. If Stauffer continues to struggle... The Twins will cut him and give a kid a shot. If you go with the kid and he struggles... you gotta bring in another kid or reach into the pile of vets on the shelf. This way you have realistic options.  

 

As for Milone... It's possible that he won the job over May by being left-handed and having an OK track record with Oakland. I really don't know but nobody without options was cut from the rotation. 

 

May and Meyer and Berrios... They are depth in the minors and if they take a roster spot on opening day the depth is lessened and we will need that depth... See Ervin and now possibly Nolasco.

 

Eventually this year... If Meyer repeats his delivery more consistently... I expect to see him. I also expect to see May at some point... Maybe even Berrios.

 

I feel a lot better about Meyer, May and Berrios coming in then I did when the Twins had to call up De Vries and P.J. Walters.      

 

Disclaimer: I personally believe that the Twins could have done a better job filling the pen and I personally believe that the Twins approach to CF has been baffling. But I don't feel that way because Burdi and Buxton or Rosario are not in a Twins uniform right now. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Happens all the time, esp with top prospects.  Hoyer traded Vilanueva to make way for Bryant. Ryan traded AJ to make way for Mauer. Rays changed their infield for Longoria.  Nats made room for Harper. Angels made room for Trout.

The 2015 Cubs traded their third baseman for a starting CF, in the process of making room for the immediately ready Bryant.

 

The 2007-2008 Rays traded their third baseman for a top setup reliever, in the process of making room for the immediately ready Longoria.

 

The 2003-2004 Twins traded their catcher for a top setup reliever (and multiple SP prospects), in the process of making room for Mauer (who wasn't obviously immediately ready, but had already dominated AA).

 

The 2012 Nationals brought back virtually their entire outfield from the year prior, and didn't trade/release anyone from that outfield until 3 months after Harper's debut.

 

The 2012 Angels likewise brought back their entire outfield, even after Trout had 40 MLB games under his belt.

[diehardtwinsfan]

5 years ago the Twins were starting their road on a division winning, 94 wins season. 4 years ago the Twins brought back a little changed team at defending that division title.  The absolute earliest a 5 year rebuild plan could have started was 3.5 years ago during that injury riddling horrid thing we called 2011.

I'd add to this that you could argue that 2012 was more of a retooling for this very reason... 2013 was when they traded the CFs and (even though it wasn't public) essentially told the world they were rebuilding.

[bird]

 

A few rebuttals:

If May and Meyer need more time, they're by definition not blocked, no?

If Tonkin, Burdi, Reed et al are ready, but blocked by current bullpen members, because the staff "made a call," that's an argument the current staff should be replaced, no? Or an argument they're not ready, which goes back to my point..."blocking" of prospects is a myth that rarely happens and isn't worth planning for. I don't see how it's not one or the other.

Ditto Rosario and Buxton...if they need more seasoning, they're not blocked.

And the A ball thing is no mystery...neither of these two have had any success higher than that level.

For me, it's simple. I don't believe in rebuilds, and I distrust prospects. Put the best team on the field at the big league level you can and worry about finding space for a prospect when and if that becomes a "problem."

What I'm not fine with is waiting for years hoping for a future that might or might not happen, while the present is teh suck.

Good points, Chief, and well made. You had originally stated that "good" GMs block prospects all the time. I don't think it's that simple. These situations are fluid. I believe "good" GMs look for opportunities to make room for their most promising prospects. They can't just snap fingers and make opportunities appear. Good GMs make room for elite prospects like Mauer, Hrbek, Morneau, but the timing isn't always perfect. Guys come up and struggle for all teams.

 

And isn't it nebulous territory to think of all these guys-May, Meyer, Tonkin, Buxton, Rosario, Burdi, etc.- as either ready and therefore blocked or not ready and therefore unblocked?

 

But I get it, the best team the Twins will put on the field in 2015 will stink, regardless of whether it stinks with the kids on the field or the veterans. My opinion is that Ryan is just being his typical conservative self about moving the prospects up en masse.

 

I don't believe in rebuilds either, but I trust the odds regarding elite prospects.  I didn't trust non-elite prospects like Becker and Stahoviak. I don't trust Josmil Pinto and Taylor Rogers. I thought the odds were pretty good that one of Morneau or Mauer was gonna make it, just like I think one of Sano or Buxton is gonna make it.

 

Ryan's strategy is frustrating for sure, but not necessarily a horrible one. You must love how the Tigers have built their team, right? 

[twinscowboysbulls]

WHO IS READY FOR SOME HAMBURGER STAUFFER IN THE ROTATION!?

[SwainZag]

 

I'd add to this that you could argue that 2012 was more of a retooling for this very reason... 2013 was when they traded the CFs and (even though it wasn't public) essentially told the world they were rebuilding.

 

I agree 100% with this as well.  In retrospect what we know now with players on that roster, they should have started selling off during 2011.  They didn't, brought in Willingham to re-tool and on paper did not begin a rebuilding process until after 2012, which would put us starting year 3 of a rebuild process.

[mikelink45]

It is only two games, but I think Nolasco and possible injury, Santana and drugs, and the horrible display that these two games have put on make it hard to have the patience to say its early, let's wait and see.  Four 90 loss seasons call for something to give us hope and the Twins have failed to see that they are the business that they have talked about for years.  Yes it is a business and sometimes you have to swallow your baseball pride and do a few favors for the people who buy the tickets.  

This roster has failed to give us something to hang on to.  It has failed to give us hope.  That is a bad business decision.

[jimmer]

 

I'm one of the rainbows and sunshine guys on TD. A veritable Positive Nellie. And yet, I agree with every one of your five points. So, I have some questions, but I only want answers from people who believe they know what TR doesn't know. Let's confuse arrogance and knowledge. 

 

1. Schaefer isn't a starting OF. Doubt you'll find 2% of the people on TD disputing that. According to the author, Ryan doesn't know this. So, all you geniuses, what would you have done? Attract and sign a one-year FA placeholder for Buxton this past winter? Play Hicks?

 

2. Well, duh, of course Nolasco, Milone, and Pelfrey are not good. So, would you have stuck a Luger to Scherzer's temple and forced him to sign on the line which is dotted? Think back, and promise me you didnt criticize TR for passing on Shaun Marcum.  Do you miss Fuld? Are you so darned prescient that you know with absolute certainty that May and Meyer would have made these first two starts and fared well? Did you predict Santana's situation? And if/when May and Meyer become rotation fixtures, will you be front and center praising TR for making those trades?

 

3. The bullpen appears to be shaky at best. So, of all the options available to Allen and Molitor, who would you have brought north? Would you have signed a pricey FA or traded for a frontline reliever this winter? Who then, and what would you have had to give up? If the bullpen ends up surprising you on the upside, maybe when Burdi, Reed, and others are MLB-ready, will you still hold this vast knowledge edge on TR?

 

4. Pinto? Sorry, what's your point? That TR's an idiot?

 

5. Well, on this point, we all agree. Including the unknowledegable TR.

The bolded comments in your post are the kind of comments that inspire the kind of cordial, respectful debates that you've stated you so much want on this site, like in your last post on the negativity thread, for instance.

 

They bolded comments aren't preemptively insulting or antagonistic at all. They really show you are open to points of view other than the ones you have.  

[bird]

 

I am ok with blocking top prospects, with 1-2 year deals. 4 year deals for mediocre, mid-30s pitchers? Not so much.

 

That's what he did wrong, imo, this year.....unless they now believe May and Meyer aren't all that good, in which case, we should be judging their ability to make trades.

 

I am ok with blocking prospects with short term deals, with deals on upside guys, with guys you might be able to trade......if the prospects work out. I'm not good with signing 3 guys to multiple years that aren't all that good.....

 

 

I get this and agree in theory, mike, but who would you have signed to a one year deal? How is a GM supposed to appease you? If he finds the kind of "make good" guy, like a Marcum, and he doesn't make good, he should be canned. If he signs the guy who requires a long term deal, its either a bad player or a bad contract time after time. We have to remember that guys like Phil Hughes are scarce.

 

Why do you think it goes from not being quite ready to not good? Players can be both good and not ready. Just because Meyer only lasted 5 innings today, walked 6, gave up 4 hits, and only threw 44 of 87 pitches for strikes, is he no good all of a sudden? Maybe he's just not ready. It's not Terry Ryan that wants it both ways, as you suggested earlier. It's us as fans.

[Mike Sixel]

I didn't say Terry wanted it both ways.....I said people here want it both ways, on whether we should believe what he says in public or not......I did ask for him to sign flyer types the last few years, and elite players the last few years, and to avoid mediocre players. My judgement on a 1 year, 6MM deal is a lot different than on a 4 year, 60MM deal......though even then I think there is room to judge compared to others.

 

Right now, it is hard to give the FO the benefit of the doubt, given the last 4 years, and very likely outcome of this year......

 

KLAW just answered my question on MEYER:

I still believe he has a significant major league future, buy maybe h'll never get that delivery synced up to the point where he can throw consistent strikes.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Dear Mike, can I have your autograph?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dear Mike, can I have your autograph?

 

Uh......why?

 

I used to have old vikings' autographs. Threw them away. I don't get autographs.....