Article: Which Righty Relievers Can Get Lefties Out?

[Nick Nelson]

The American League Central isn’t filled with as many imposing left-handed hitters as it once was. With Prince Fielder traded to Texas, Adam Dunn retired and Travis Hafner’s dominance a distant memory, Minnesota no longer needs to worry much about game-changing homers from lefty swingers.

 

Because of this, perhaps it makes sense for the Twins to carry only one southpaw specialist among its seven relievers, as they appear poised to do.With Blaine Boyer and Mike Pelfrey both being slotted for roles as middle relievers, only one spot in the bullpen remains. Both J.R. Graham and Caleb Thielbar are in contention for that job, but with Graham enjoying a much more successful spring -- not to mention his status as a Rule 5 acquisition -- things appear to be leaning in the righty’s favor.

 

That puts Paul Molitor in an interesting position as he enters his first season as a manager. Ron Gardenhire almost always had multiple lefties in his bullpens, providing him with added flexibility to play match-ups in the late innings, but Molitor may not have that luxury in his first go. Maybe that's not all that surprising; his reliever usage this spring has suggested that he’s more interested in having his pitchers record multiple outs -- even over multiple innings -- as opposed to utilizing specific arms to face one or two hitters.

 

Still, there will be instances late in a close game where a threatening left-handed hitter like Michael Brantley or Eric Hosmer steps into the box and Molitor’s top weapon, Brian Duensing, is unavailable.

 

If Thielbar’s not around, who’s the go-to guy in such a situation? Is there one? Let’s take a look at the options Molitor will have on hand outside of Glen Perkins, who is obviously not a match-up play.

 

Blaine Boyer: The veteran really isn’t a strong option to match up against left-handed hitters, and in fact should probably be limited almost entirely to righties. As Parker noted Tuesday, Boyer has struggled against batters from the opposite side, though the addition of a changeup to his repertoire could help matters.

 

Mike Pelfrey: Over the course of his career, Pelfrey has been just about equally effective against hitters from either side -- which is to say, not terribly effective (.753 OPS vs. RHB, .784 OPS vs. LHB). As a starter, he didn't really have the secondary stuff to keep lefties in line, but we’ll see how things change with the role switch.

 

Casey Fien: He will probably be tabbed for a pretty strict eighth-inning role, at least initially, though at least he can probably handle hitters from both sides in that duty? Last year, he held lefties to a .255/.294/.400 line, though in his first season with the Twins portsiders slugged .472 with six homers against him.

 

Tim Stauffer: In his career, Stauffer has actually been more effective against lefty batters, holding them to a .712 OPS as opposed to .737 for righties. Last year in San Diego, Stauffer held LHB to a .282/.333/.347 line with zero homers in 135 plate appearances. Interesting.

 

From a strictly statistical standpoint, Stauffer actually appears to be the best match-up choice for left-handed hitters among righties in the bullpen. That may be a key point in his favor, in light of his immense struggles on the hill this spring.

 

Would you be comfortable sending any of the above names (or the completely untested J.R. Graham) against a lefty power threat in a tie game? Or do you think the Twins would be wise to have a second lefty behind Duensing? Sound off in the comments.

 

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[USNMCPO]

UGH!

[deanlambrecht]

Yuck. Frankly, I'm not terribly confident in Duensing. Weird that the bullpen is our clear problem, no?

[troyhobbs]

Fingers crossed for career years out of the entire starting 5.

[stringer bell]

I've been thinking that the Twins needed help from the left side since the offseason started. Duensing isn't ideal, but he is the best the Twins have.

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins do have 5 starters right now that have a chance to complete 6 or even 7 innings most times out. That will help. If they can get to Duensing and Fien before Perkins, that would be helpful. Then of Boyer, Pelfrey and Stauffer, they just need one of them to become kind of a lock-down type. 

 

Maybe wishful thinking, but as mentioned above, the starters can really help the bullpen.

[Shane Wahl]

I am telling you . . . Ryan O'Rourke . . . 

[DocBauer]

OK....we've had a few arguments as to the Twins bullpen over the past few years and their depth and effectiveness. And even after I produced various numbers to show that over multiple years we ranked no worse than middle of the pack, (and it's true that stats can be skewed) it could be argued that even in bad years the Twins produced at least an OK bullpen...especially when factoring in late season fades due to overuse.  But right now...for the first time in a while, I'm crossing my fingers. 

 

Believe in Perkins and Fien. Have doubts for the first time on Duensing, but hoping old reliable returns. Actually believe that soon, if not now, Graham might be our best RHRP as of right now. So want to  believe in Pelfrey, but high and straight is still high and straight no matter how hard you throw it.

 

Right now, I believe at least 2 if not 3 relievers are gone by June 1. July 1 at absolute latest.

[zchrz]

It would be nice to have a lefty specialist, Duensing doesn't make life much harder for lefties.  But its not that big a deal, the bullpen is in a holding pattern until some kids start to claim their spots. 

 

Hopefully there will be a lot of movement in that department this year, making the group of extremely replaceable arms that are currently being brought north serve their purpose of being easily replaced.  

[h2oface]

I just can't think of Duensing as a weapon. Inherited runners scoring seems to be his specialty.

[HitInAPinch]

Duensing, just like Burton, have been worn out over that past couple years because there were no other remotely reliable relievers.  You want right-handed relievers that can get lefties out?  Easy.  Have Neil Allen teach them the same pitch that lead Frank Viola and Johan Santana to Cy Young awards:  The Circle Change.

 

If it were me, I'd teach the OK change to every relief pitcher.

[nicksaviking]

Of equal concern to me:  Who can get righties out?

[mikelink45]

NO NO NO - there have been many decisions that baffled me this spring, but to make the bullpen older is the ultimate.  Only Graham, who has a terrible minor league resume is under 30.  

In a year where expectations for all but the most optimistic are dire it is time to put the young arms in and let them learn in the bigs. 

[hybridbear]

If you're worrying about that lefty in the 8th inning with the Twins holding a slim lead it could make sense to bring in Perkins and let him pitching more than just 3 outs. Especially if the lefty is batting with 2 outs in the 8th, bring in Perkins and let him take responsibility.

[Thrylos]

One very important data point is missing:

 

.280/.327/.433

 

LHB slash against Caleb Thielbar in 2014.    Addition by Subtraction.   Graham actually had a .900 WHIP against LHB this Spring and I bet will be more effective against them than Thielbar was.  

 

That said the Twins are in good hands:

 

.235/.282/.305

 

Duensing's 2014 LHB slash line  and

 

.229/.277/.322

 

Duensing's career LHB slash line

 

He gets lefties out.  Thielbar never did.

[Willihammer]

I bet Burdi could!

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Two thoughts, recycled from above:

 

1) I agree with the hope/expectation that our starting five will log more quality starts. This should shorten the workload, and broaden the options for Paul Molitor as he and the coaching staff make late-game TACTICAL decisions. Right now Molitor & his staff are making final decisions regarding their bullpen STRATEGY as they settle on a 25-man rosters. In Detroit on Opening Day, strategy will soon make way for in-game tactics, which gives way to the OPERATIVE challenge of making the best pitch. Strategy-Tactics-Operations. Longer starts lead to more "bullets" in the manager's "gun" as he makes tactical decisions from the dugout--hopefully in the seventh or eighth innings, rather than the fourth, fifth or sixth frames.

 

2) Strategic options are also emerging in the minor leagues: Lefty Aaron Thompson showed promise during Spring Training. He should keep a carry-on bag packed. A rejuvenated Caleb Thielbar is a real possibility--hopefully the 2013 version. He was filthy against lefties. And Mark Hamburger and Nick Burdi are quality options who can gas either side of the plate. Also the strategic move of picking up Graham looks promising, but the games haven't started counting, yet. 

 

It will be fun to watch how the Twins' Bullpen Strategy plays out!

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Too bad Cameron Booser hasn't pitched about E-town. He'd be fun to bring in against power-hitting lefties: high-90s heat with plus slider.

 

He's a little erratic now... which might make those same lefties uncomfortable.

[Kwak]

There have been numerous RHRP that were effective against LHB.  The good news is that they are effective against RHB too!  These are the prototypical RPs--pitchers who can get batters out consistently irrespective of in which batter's box they stand.  Find/develop that type of pitcher instead of relying on "tricks" to get outs.

[Paul Pleiss]

Boyer makes my blood boil. Which I suppose is a good thing. Great story too. It will be hard for me to hate him, but with Burton gone, I need someone to loathe.