BP article on the Twins

[Thrylos]

 

The Marlins seem to have done it in about 2 years........

 

Indeed.  Top feeders vs. bottom feeders.  Images worth 1000 words, so here is what I think when I think about TR's strategy:

 

[USAFChief]

 

The Marlins seem to have done it in about 2 years........

The Marlins last were above .500 in 2009.

 

2010:  80-82

2011:  72-90

2012:  69-93

2013:  62-100

2014:  77-85

 

The Marlins may indeed be a playoff team this year, but I will wait for it to happen before I give them credit for it, and agree they've "rebuilt" in two years.

 

Regardless, the point is still valid, IMO.  It's difficult to rebuild and it often fails.  It took Pittsburgh and KC 20 years, if we're going to point to individual examples.  It took the Twins pretty much the entire 1990's.

[adorduan]

 

Can't wait to feel your newfound joy, mike. Maybe as early as 2016. Sorry you can't find joy in watching it all slowly unfold.

Well, you've got the slowly part right.....

[Platoon]

I won't beat a dead horse here, but to clarify what the Twins have always said, they believe in building PRIMARILY from the ground up. They have very consistently said they'll look at all avenues. Like the Cards, their least attractive option is FA, but alas, and clearly with typical Ryan reluctance, he had to resort to that option to a greater extent. And yes, due to BOTH a few poor draft decisions and a couple unfortunate draft results, most notably Gibson and Wimmers being set back by injury.

 

I get it that the Twins disagree with a lot of fans about how much the budget should be, or which FA should be signed, or whether it's prudent to put a high bid on the Yas Tomas's, and how patient they should be, and all that. Often, reasonable arguments get made on both side of those decisions. The thing is, no one is arguing that they failed to be any good over the last four years, right?

. I was not at all excited to see the Twins are looking to the waiver wire, and trade wire for bullpen staff. I don't see anything that is good coming from that idea. As for trades, who would we trade? A Jake Reed for a nice 32 year old who regularly gets it up to 91?

[Platoon]

I don't know about the rest of the "out West," Mike, but here in Arizona we have the interwebs.  At least in my part.  Can't speak for Phoenix, as I try very hard to avoid it.

. This bursts my bubble Chief! I thought you were conversing via very fast Pony Express riders, or maybe even that new tangled teleegraph!

[Platoon]

Fangled! Tangled is what happens when I try to play g in my IPad.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I do think the "in two years" promise has largely been media-fueled (looking at you, LENIII). Still, it wasn't unreasonable a year and a half ago to expect that Alex Meyer and Miguel Sano would have been top contributors going into this season. Sano's setback was a bummer. With Meyer they need to just send him out there, rather than wait for the perfect moment to present itself.

[h2oface]

 

The Marlins last were above .500 in 2009.

 

2010:  80-82

2011:  72-90

2012:  69-93

2013:  62-100

2014:  77-85

 

The Marlins may indeed be a playoff team this year, but I will wait for it to happen before I give them credit for it, and agree they've "rebuilt" in two years.

 

Regardless, the point is still valid, IMO.  It's difficult to rebuild and it often fails.  It took Pittsburgh and KC 20 years, if we're going to point to individual examples.  It took the Twins pretty much the entire 1990's.

I really don't think that the rebuild started until the fire sale before the 2013 season and the reduction of the team salary to whatever it was.... under 40 million or something.  2011 wasn't part of any rebuild for the Twins, either, (and I contend it is folly to say that the Pirates and Royals were in rebuild just because they were a bad team) even though it was the start of the culture of losing. Just because the team is horrible doesn't mean they are in "rebuild" mode. Part of rebuilding is that you commit to it. Committing - I contend that is why, in two short years, the Marlins are ready to contend - because they truly committed. In just one year they made a 15 game improvement after gutting the team (and that was with Jose Fernandez going down, too!) 

Maybe it was Mike Redmond??? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

. This bursts my bubble Chief! I thought you were conversing via very fast Pony Express riders, or maybe even that new tangled teleegraph!

 

You need to stop confusing his age with his location.

[bird]

 

I don't know how my sports interests will change when I move, it will be one of the interesting things. I know some MN become bigger MN fans, to stay in touch. I know others that pretty much abandoned MN sports.....

 

Without me as a sparring partner, your health would swiftly decline, mike. Use the dang inter web. We still have stuff to re-hash over and over.

[bird]

 

Those lists do demonstrate that the Twins, though not the biggest player in the international market, are solidly in the top half of all teams. The 60 players listed were split among only 21 teams , and 8 teams signed only one. The Twins signed two, which by this flawed metric is top-half. And this is just a list of the high paid players, which may or may not perfectly reflect the teams' total investment for the season. There are a lot of clubs (and high-revenue clubs) that make little or no effort to sign players in the July 2 market, such as Bal, Was, NYM, Phi, Col, Cin, Mia and Cle. Even staying within the new spending rules, the Twins are still investing more money and signing more players than many (probably most) of their peers. They aren't the biggest spender out there, but I think they are solidly above-average.

 

Yes. On BA's rankings, Sano was #1, Minier #7, Diaz #10, others were ranked too..Ynoa, now Javier. Other teams competed and bid on these prospects, so it's not accurate to describe the Sano signing as a different animal. BA's rankings should be viewed with skepticism though. It's probably better to look at other evidence of the point being made about being committed to investing in the international markets, which includes those unranked players signed for a half-million or more: Thorpe, Kepler, Polanco, Barrie, etc. So again, just because there's new rules in place, or just because they've refused to engage in the Cuban wars doesn't mean they should be discredited. They deserve credit for both the money being spent, and even more for the results (yeah, Chief, I know it hasn't yet translated into wins and may never )

[bird]

 

Indeed.  Top feeders vs. bottom feeders.  Images worth 1000 words, so here is what I think when I think about TR's strategy:

 

Thank you for your astute and objective analysis.

[jay]

I really don't think that the rebuild started until the fire sale before the 2013 season and the reduction of the team salary to whatever it was.... under 40 million or something. 2011 wasn't part of any rebuild for the Twins, either, (and I contend it is folly to say that the Pirates and Royals were in rebuild just because they were a bad team) even though it was the start of the culture of losing. Just because the team is horrible doesn't mean they are in "rebuild" mode. Part of rebuilding is that you commit to it. Committing - I contend that is why, in two short years, the Marlins are ready to contend - because they truly committed. In just one year they made a 15 game improvement after gutting the team (and that was with Jose Fernandez going down, too!)

Maybe it was Mike Redmond???

2012 was hardly a "rebuild" year either. It was "2011 was a fluke and we can bounce back". The Span and Revere trades before 2013 were the first real "rebuild" moves. I'd agree that, right or wrong, the Twins didn't head-first commit like Marlins and Astros. We might see that approach work (still unproven), but it clearly comes with side effects to the common fan base.

 

In any fashion, the Twins are 2 full years into their rebuild as well and I won't be giving them credit for rebuilding when the record is sub .500.

[gunnarthor]

 

I really don't think that the rebuild started until the fire sale before the 2013 season and the reduction of the team salary to whatever it was.... under 40 million or something.  2011 wasn't part of any rebuild for the Twins, either, (and I contend it is folly to say that the Pirates and Royals were in rebuild just because they were a bad team) even though it was the start of the culture of losing. Just because the team is horrible doesn't mean they are in "rebuild" mode. Part of rebuilding is that you commit to it. Committing - I contend that is why, in two short years, the Marlins are ready to contend - because they truly committed. In just one year they made a 15 game improvement after gutting the team (and that was with Jose Fernandez going down, too!) 

Maybe it was Mike Redmond??? 

I think a big part of the reason the marlins might be better is that, b/c all those losing seasons allowed them to draft guys like Jose Fernandez in the first place.  And 15 game jumps are a lot easier if you lost 100 games.

 

I think it's hard to suggest that Ryan doesn't understand rebuilds - he's done them before. 

[Thrylos]

 

2012 was hardly a "rebuild" year either. It was "2011 was a fluke and we can bounce back".

 

 

I would agree with that, but you don't fire the GM for a fluke.  You fire the GM once you realize that he should be accountable for assembling a bad team.  Then, to be consistent, 2012 should had been a rebuilding year.

 

If it was a fluke you don't fire the GM (because not his fault,) if not a fluke and fire the GM, you got to rebuild.  Simple logic...

 

So either the Twins did wrong by firing Smith (instead of, let's say the one they fired this season), or Ryan did wrong by not rebuilding.  Cannot have it both right

[jimmer]

 

I think a big part of the reason the marlins might be better is that, b/c all those losing seasons allowed them to draft guys like Jose Fernandez in the first place.  And 15 game jumps are a lot easier if you lost 100 games.

 

I think it's hard to suggest that Ryan doesn't understand rebuilds - he's done them before. 

Jose Fernandez was drafted 14th.  Hardly a prime drafting spot obtained by losing,  That's where we got Hicks:-)

[Mike Sixel]

Does anyone doubt the Cubs are well ahead at the rebuild?

[gunnarthor]

 

Does anyone doubt the Cubs are well ahead at the rebuild?

Why?  They've lost more games the last three years despite having a much higher payroll. They, like the Twins, have an amazing farm system and that might start to pay dividends for them this year but if you think Hoyer has been doing a good job since he took the job three years ago, I don't see how you can claim that Ryan isn't.  Very similar rebuilds with the exception that the Cubs have more payroll to throw at Lester this offseason. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Those lists do demonstrate that the Twins, though not the biggest player in the international market, are solidly in the top half of all teams. The 60 players listed were split among only 21 teams , and 8 teams signed only one. The Twins signed two, which by this flawed metric is top-half. And this is just a list of the high paid players, which may or may not perfectly reflect the teams' total investment for the season. There are a lot of clubs (and high-revenue clubs) that make little or no effort to sign players in the July 2 market, such as Bal, Was, NYM, Phi, Col, Cin, Mia and Cle. Even staying within the new spending rules, the Twins are still investing more money and signing more players than many (probably most) of their peers. They aren't the biggest spender out there, but I think they are solidly above-average.

Thanks.  Those lists are definitely an imperfect measure, but I will grant that the Twins were probably middle of the pack for those seasons (2010-2011), which was an improvement over pre-Sano years.  I guess Sano could be the turning point, although I stand by my statement that the Sano transaction itself was pretty much a "one-off deal" in terms of Twins aggressiveness.

 

And since 2012, the Twins have spent more / signed more international amateurs than most simply because they have more slots and a higher bonus allotment, no?

[jimmer]

Cubs haven't exactly been overspending over the last 3, 4 years (2012-2015).  Their payrolls have been very close to ours, and neither have spent what they could.  Even this year.

[twinscowboysbulls]

We've come a long ways, but there is still a good amount of distance to travel.

[Twodogs]

 

whose projections are you talking about, jimmer? and whose praise?

 

Ryan has consistently cautioned fans about "no shortcuts", so aside from the standard media interview gibberish that should always be ignored, "we want to win now" pablum that they all spew to the beat writers, I really don't think the Twins have given us a bunch of revised timetables. Just four crappy seasons.

 

As far as on TD, there hasn't been an abundance of overly optimistic projections for three years, really. Not a boatload of praise either.

Hey all I know is that through a "no shortcut" approach and a lot of patients I get laid a lot more now than when I had a "we wanna get laid now" pablum that I used to spew all over the place.  Ha Ha So I'm gonna sit back and use a little patients and I can handle my alcohol a little better now than when I was younger too, that in itself probably helps me have a little more patients.  You know, if you're the last man standing you've got a shot.  Ha ha   Plus Mike, when you move out west the chicks wear less clothes so it gets easier to have a sit back and wait approach.  Just spent the week at Pacific Beach in San Diego. 

 

Oh well I've had my laugh.  In all honesty I think the Twins will do better this year.  Seems to me that every year people have been on here thinking that the Twins were better than the year before and they have stunk for the last 4 seasons, now everyone is kinda down and so I think the Twins will surprise us.

[markos]

 

Thanks.  Those lists are definitely an imperfect measure, but I will grant that the Twins were probably middle of the pack for those seasons (2010-2011), which was an improvement over pre-Sano years.  I guess Sano could be the turning point, although I stand by my statement that the Sano transaction itself was pretty much a "one-off deal" in terms of Twins aggressiveness.

 

And since 2012, the Twins have spent more / signed more international amateurs than most simply because they have more slots and a higher bonus allotment, no?

 

Baseball America just release their data from the 2014 International Signing season. It doesn't not paint a pretty picture for the Twins. Though they had the 5th highest bonus pool, they were 10th regarding actual money spent. And if you sort the teams by percentage of pool used, they fall to 22nd, having only used 88% of their pool. That is roughly $450K unused. 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-international-spending-team/

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-15-mlb-international-bonus-pools-and-slot-values/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Baseball America just release their data from the 2014 International Signing season. It doesn't not paint a pretty picture for the Twins. Though they had the 5th highest bonus pool, they were 10th regarding actual money spent. And if you sort the teams by percentage of pool used, they fall to 22nd, having only used 88% of their pool. That is roughly $450K unused. 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-international-spending-team/

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-15-mlb-international-bonus-pools-and-slot-values/

That first link includes all calendar year 2014 spending (so, the second half of the 2013-2014 signing period, and the first half of the current 2014-2015 one).

 

I would guess that virtually all of the spending happens in the first half of the signing period, so perhaps the list is still roughly accurate, but I am not sure why BA wouldn't split these reports around July 2nd anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

More links, along the same vein.

 

International amateur spending by team (doesn't include professionals from Cuba, Japan, etc.)

 

2010 -- Twins rank 12th:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611345.html

 

2011 -- Twins rank 15th:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613090.html

 

Couldn't find data for 2012, would be interesting (every team had the same $2.9 mil pool that year)

 

2013 -- Twins rank 9th, but had the 4th largest pool ($400k unspent):

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2013-international-spending-by-team/

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-bonus-pools-for-2013-14/

 

And as markos pointed out above:

 

2014 -- Twins rank 10th, but had the 5th largest pool ($450k unspent)

 

And considering that teams can exceed their pools by up to 15% with only a tax and no future penalties, the Twins could have safely spent almost a full $1 mil above what they actually spent the last two signing periods, even if they didn't want to be one of those clubs that invites future penalties.

[jay]

 

More links, along the same vein.

 

International amateur spending by team (doesn't include professionals from Cuba, Japan, etc.)

 

2010 -- Twins rank 12th:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611345.html

 

2011 -- Twins rank 15th:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613090.html

 

Couldn't find data for 2012, would be interesting (every team had the same $2.9 mil pool that year)

 

2013 -- Twins rank 9th, but had the 4th largest pool ($400k unspent):

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2013-international-spending-by-team/

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-bonus-pools-for-2013-14/

 

And as markos pointed out above:

 

2014 -- Twins rank 10th, but had the 5th largest pool ($450k unspent)

 

And considering that teams can exceed their pools by up to 15% with only a tax and no future penalties, the Twins could have safely spent almost a full $1 mil above what they actually spent the last two signing periods, even if they didn't want to be one of those clubs that invites future penalties.

 

Given their relative revenue position, doesn't this show that the Twins are outspending their peers?

[bird]

Not sure I'm understanding this Baseball America report for 2014. Maybe I'm wrong, but the 2014 allotment is for international players signed between July 2, 2014 and July 1, 2015. I'm aware that a vast majority of bonuses are handed out to prospects immediately following the initial July 2 signing date, but not all. 

 

And even if the number is accurate, help me with the math please. So, IF in fact the Twins spent the entire allocation, meaning an extra $450k, would they then have ranked as the 5th most prolific spender? Or are we crediting the cheaters for having screwed the compliant teams by breaking the agreed-upon rules and over-spending their allocations? I won't accept an argument that we should have joined the cheaters.

 

If some critics want to use this "5th in budget, 10th in spending" fact without any caveat, I'm sure they will. But I'll view that as a form of dishonesty personally.

 

Right now, unless someone clarifies it, I'm questioning the spending number for starters and will remain very skeptical about this 5th in budget 10th in spending thing.

 

Also, can someone confirm that Australian prospect signings are included in these numbers? If not, the $1M spent on Barrie and Thorpe would not be counted.

[Twodogs]

I don't get any of the international signing stuff.  It doesn't make any sense to me.  I wish teams had to draft international players just like they do US players.  Also at what age can teams go after players internationally?  Haven't teams gone after like 16 year olds and stuff like that before?  Maybe I am wrong.

[chopper0080]

 

Can't wait to feel your newfound joy, mike. Maybe as early as 2016. Sorry you can't find joy in watching it all slowly unfold.

 

Maybe you meant slowly unraveling, because I haven't seen one positive thing come out of the past three years of awfulness.

 

The Twins have been treading water in terms of being terrible, and selling magic beans as the answer the whole time though they fail to ever plant them (other than Hicks/Gibson).

[chopper0080]

 

Why?  They've lost more games the last three years despite having a much higher payroll. They, like the Twins, have an amazing farm system and that might start to pay dividends for them this year but if you think Hoyer has been doing a good job since he took the job three years ago, I don't see how you can claim that Ryan isn't.  Very similar rebuilds with the exception that the Cubs have more payroll to throw at Lester this offseason. 

 

That is a 2002 garbage excuse.  The Twins payroll is what they say it is.  If they choose to use it to buy several pieces of trash rather than one good player, that is their choice, and shouldn't be an excuse for failing.