Sano v. Plouffe

[Bark's Lounge]

To start out, like everyone I love Miguel Sano's future prospects. Since the Twins have signed him, there has been some doubt about his ability to stick at SS (that is at an end), and 3B (which is still in play).

 

Coming off Tommy John Surgery as a position player, Sano's probably gonna be alright, but that surgery is definitely a strong set back. Like everyone, I would love to see him as a batter in the bigs this season at some point, but at the expense of Trevor Plouffe I am not cool with.

 

What if Plouffe hits 20HR's this season with an .800OPS and plays solid to average defense, and Sano hits HR's left and right and his OPS's in the mid .800 - .900 range at AA or AAA and plays a mediocre 3B? ... which is what I expect this upcoming season.

 

It is on record that I have been a over the top Plouffe supporter for the last 2+ years, but being objective, I have to look at this conundrum with open eyes.

 

I am not too concerned with Sano having an impact on our team this year, but I certainly do in 2016. What if Plouffe has a power impact and OPS's .800+ and plays the same defense as he did in 2014 or better?

 

I'd have a damn hard time trading a 3B of that order to make room for an unknown commodity.

 

Sano will hit HR's, but how will he do otherwise? It's hard to predict his outcome and I am doubtful he can remain a third baseman, but I am no scout, I have not seen him play 3B, Defensive metrics... meh.

 

I wish the Twins Organization would have played Sano in the Corner OF positions more in the minors (no OF reps), but I can see why they did not. He needed his reps at 3B.

 

I hope the Twins do throw him out in RF and maybe LF and see what they have in the minors.

 

I'd like to think if Plouffe advances to the next level and Sano's bat is undeniable that they can both be part of our next great team and they fit them both in. Offense is at a deficit these days, if it isn't a complete disaster, you make it work.

[mnfireman]

Lots of OF help on its way. Sano is penciled in at 3B for 10 years once he gets here.

[Danchat]

We need to find out what we have in Sano and then figure out where he and Plouffe finds out. Let's not make any rash moves and screw this up by trading Plouffe away and then learn Sano can't play 3B.

[Paul Pleiss]

I don't know if there is a real Sano vs Plouffe debate. I'm with you, keep them both until you truly don't need one of them (Plouffe).

 

Even at elevated arbitration values, Plouffe is still a good young player at an affordable salary for a team in the midst of a rebuild. Unless the Twins can move him for a solid prospect (B range or better) then hold onto him. Eduardo Escobar can play third in a pinch if the right deal comes along for Trevor, but barring that, hold onto him. A league average hitter with some pop isn't easy to find.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd prefer not to make a decision on Sano playing third base until after we've seen him play it a bit.  Minor league defensive scouting reports are garbage.

 

I hope Plouffe forces a tough choice though.  It's a good problem to have.

[stringer bell]

From the buzz generated about Sano, not only from the Twins' cognicenti, but also the national media, Sano is not the kind of guy who should be blocked by a second quartile third baseman.  Twins' management needs to see more on the field before they verify these lofty projections, but I believe Sano has enough potential that he will be given a regular job at third before he has absolutely proven he will be better than Plouffe.

[diehardtwinsfan]

That problem is something we can worry about if it happens.  Worst case, Sano can come up as a DH, LF, or even 3B for a cup of coffee if someone gets hurt.  Odds are one of those positions will see some DL time next season. 

[brvama]

Very interesting comments, of which I mostly favor. With Plouffe we have the opportunity to give Sano time to develop fully, even waiting til Aug or later for a call up. IF Plouffe does push a harder decision, he is the one that I'd move to the OF. And of course a trade is possible for a good player. I guess I just restated ya'lls comments.

 

I actually like the situation b/c it is an area of strength for the Twins, or will likely be. One more position to potentially move to the plus column.

[Dantes929]

I have been critical of Plouffe's offense and defense in the past but have come to like his offense since he has made adjustments at the plate (better coverage and going with the pitch more).      On TV his defense looked improved last year though it still looked like he was a little afraid of the ball the way he would get out of the way sometimes and play it off to the side.   Went to a game and watched his upright position as the ball was pitched makes me think the average defense last year was an outlier and believe below average defense is more likely.   I saw everyone go into a crouch but him and if there is one position that should start in the ready position and show a little more tenacity it is third base.    

[jorgenswest]

I'd prefer not to make a decision on Sano playing third base until after we've seen him play it a bit.  Minor league defensive scouting reports are garbage.

 

I hope Plouffe forces a tough choice though.  It's a good problem to have.

Are you saying that it is not possible to assess a player's fielding ability prior to the major leagues and any attempt has no value?

[TheLeviathan]

Are you saying that it is not possible to assess a player's fielding ability prior to the major leagues and any attempt has no value?

Not possible? No, it's possible and would be valuable.

 

Is anything close to an accurate and reliable method being done now? God no.

[jorgenswest]

Not possible? No, it's possible and would be valuable.

Is anything close to an accurate and reliable method being done now? God no.

Wouldn't most scouting reports come from watching them play? How else should they scout defense?

[TheLeviathan]

Wouldn't most scouting reports come from watching them play? How else should they scout defense?

Do you think you can get a good vibe from watching a weekends worth of ball games? These scouts aren't sitting there for two weeks, it's a game or two to evaluate their defense.

 

That's just not sufficient for a good idea of defensive abilities.

[jorgenswest]

Do you think you can get a good vibe from watching a weekends worth of ball games? These scouts aren't sitting there for two weeks, it's a game or two to evaluate their defense.

That's just not sufficient for a good idea of defensive abilities.

I don't think it would take a long time to see footwork or arm strength or hands. I do think it takes a few different series spread out throughout the season to evaluate defense.

 

I also realize a lot of prospect assessments I read are written by someone who has never seen the player. They certainly haven't seen them multiple times throughout the season. Some of those are aggregated as second hand reports as a result of talking to people who have seen the player. Others aren't even that good as they take those second and third hand reports and aggregate them into another assessment.

 

I value any first hand report about a player's skill. It is not in any way garbage.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think it would take a long time to see footwork or arm strength or hands. I do think it takes a few different series spread out throughout the season to evaluate defense.

I also realize a lot of prospect assessments I read are written by someone who has never seen the player. They certainly haven't seen them multiple times throughout the season. Some of those are aggregated as second hand reports as a result of talking to people who have seen the player. Others aren't even that good as they take those second and third hand reports and aggregate them into another assessment.

I value any first hand report about a player's skill. It is not in any way garbage.

All you can see with any reliability in that small sample is arm strength. Hicks is a great example...catch him on a good weekend and I get the scouting reports about how good he is.

 

Watch him over an extended period of time and the poor instincts, the sub par range for his speed, and the mental errors takeover. I have seen many, many garbage reports because they saw a poorly reflective small sample. By most all accounts this kind of small sampling is how scouting happens. That just doesn't work for defense.

[Squirrel]

Okay, this is a thread about 'Sano vs Plouffe.' If you want to have a more general discussion about how best to evaluate players, start a thread and discuss that. Otherwise, please keep these peripheral discussions relevant to the topic. Thanks.

[TheLeviathan]

It is relevant, people are making sweeping assumptions about Sano's future based on minor league scouting. That's just a bad idea for a number of reasons.

[Halsey Hall]

Sano's manager and coaches opinions on his defense mean way more than the scouts.  There's very good reports available to the Twins. 

 

As soon as he's ready, get something for Plouffe!

[Dantes929]

Depending on how the outfield shakes out we may want one of the two out there.   I have come to value outfield defense a great deal so kind of wondering who is faster.   Plouffe or Sano?    I believe I made a reasonable observation about Plouffe's fielding approach watching one game.   I would like to think a couple coaches would be able to tell whether Sano is doing well but then again, you would think Plouffe would have received better instruction over the years as well.  I have come to like Plouffe and would say he is nowhere near the top of the list of problems but that is still a different standard than being a strength which is what we are expecting from Sano.

[RealTwinsFan357]

I know we have to take it with a grain of salt, but for what it's worth, Sano's steamer projections for next year are higher than Plouffe's in almost every catergory...

                                      Plouffe | Sano

AVG                                 .248   |  .237

OBP                                 .315   | .308

SLG                                 .412   | .456

OPS                                 .727   | .764

wRC+                               106    | 114

BB%                                 8.3     | 8.5

K%                                   19.8   | 27.5

HR per 150 games            19.7  | 30

Def rating per 150 games -7.13 | 2.63

WAR per 150 games          1.72 | 3.375

ISO                                    .164  | .219

BABIP                                 .283 | .284

 

Now I know these are projections, so they don't really mean that much, but the idea that Sano could be the better player this year is exciting. I think Sano's floor is what Plouffe was last year. In my opinion, if Sano does well in the minors for a few months, the Twins should definitely try to flip Plouffe at the deadline. Sano will end up being the better player.

 

As a side note, although I don't know how the estimate was made I'm excited by the positive defensive projection for Sano. If he plays above average defense at third, he will erase what little doubt the Twins have in his abilities.

[kab21]

All you can see with any reliability in that small sample is arm strength. Hicks is a great example...catch him on a good weekend and I get the scouting reports about how good he is.

 

Watch him over an extended period of time and the poor instincts, the sub par range for his speed, and the mental errors takeover. I have seen many, many garbage reports because they saw a poorly reflective small sample. By most all accounts this kind of small sampling is how scouting happens. That just doesn't work for defense.

 

There are the one weekend scout types and then there are the regional scout types that probably watch 10-15 games live of each team and more on MiLB tv.  And I have not seen one credible report that said Sano was good at defense currently.  They all sound like he has decent enough tools to be passable at 3B.  Did all of the scouts happen to watch the same games that he looked okay-ish or bad?

 

In addition to that the Twins MiLB coaches and managers watch him every game.  I think they have a pretty good idea how his defense projects.  It will be interesting to see how he does after taking a year off and likely filling out even more.

[glunn]

Harmon Killebrew played a substantial # of games at 3B and in the outfield.  He never won a gold glove, but he worked hard and made the most of his ability.

 

I think that either Sano or Plouffe could provide adequate defense in the outfield if that's what is best for the team.  I also think that they could both benefit from Killebrew's work ethic.  Hopefully Molitor will be able to get them both to give 110% to every aspect of their performance and they will both be part of a World Series run in a few years.

 

I suppose that trading Plouffe might make sense if Sano shows that he can handle 3B, but my sense is that Plouffe has the tools to get significantly better and that Molitor might be able to help Plouffe become a lot more valuable.

[Paul Pleiss]

I suppose that trading Plouffe might make sense if Sano shows that he can handle 3B, but my sense is that Plouffe has the tools to get significantly better and that Molitor might be able to help Plouffe become a lot more valuable.

 

whoa whoa whoa! What makes you think Plouffe is going to trend upwards in 2015? Significantly better?

 

Please explain. I want to ride your train.

[TheLeviathan]

There are the one weekend scout types and then there are the regional scout types that probably watch 10-15 games live of each team and more on MiLB tv.  And I have not seen one credible report that said Sano was good at defense currently.  They all sound like he has decent enough tools to be passable at 3B.  Did all of the scouts happen to watch the same games that he looked okay-ish or bad?

 

In addition to that the Twins MiLB coaches and managers watch him every game.  I think they have a pretty good idea how his defense projects.  It will be interesting to see how he does after taking a year off and likely filling out even more.

 

10-15 games is still a small sample.  I don't disagree that Sano is likely to be a sub-par defender, but I'm not going to start shuffling pieces on that yet.  

 

I would trust what the Twins' minor league coaches say for sure, but we don't have access to that information.  

[Thrylos]

Sano in 2013 was much ahead of Kennys Vargas so I think that his floor will not be Plouffe, it will be a bit higher than what Vargas did last season (.274/.316/.456, 27 HRs/159 games) both on the OBP and slugging numbers, so conservatively, we are looking at something like .275/.340/.480, 35+HRs per 162 games.  Miguel Cabrera's first season numbers are within reality (.294/.366/.512 33 HR/160 games.)  

Plouffe?  Will make a good bench/utility bat, esp if given an outfield glove, something like Gene Larkin in '91.  

 

Back to the Cabrera analogy:  The Marlins had Mike Lowell play third base in about the same age as Plouffe now and (I hope nobody argues that Plouffe is better that Lowell in his prime) did not blink twice about replacing him with a better, younger player.  This should be happening with the Twins and Plouffe as well...

[nater79a]

Sano's power if off the charts. If he can generate 40-45 HR's and 120+ RBI it will more than offset any defensive deficiencies he may have.

 

Get Sano up here by June. Flip Plouffe at the deadline.

[Twodogs]

Sano in 2013 was much ahead of Kennys Vargas so I think that his floor will not be Plouffe, it will be a bit higher than what Vargas did last season (.274/.316/.456, 27 HRs/159 games) both on the OBP and slugging numbers, so conservatively, we are looking at something like .275/.340/.480, 35+HRs per 162 games.  Miguel Cabrera's first season numbers are within reality (.294/.366/.512 33 HR/160 games.)  

Plouffe?  Will make a good bench/utility bat, esp if given an outfield glove, something like Gene Larkin in '91.  

 

Back to the Cabrera analogy:  The Marlins had Mike Lowell play third base in about the same age as Plouffe now and (I hope nobody argues that Plouffe is better that Lowell in his prime) did not blink twice about replacing him with a better, younger player.  This should be happening with the Twins and Plouffe as well...

 

 

Big difference is; the Marlins flip everyone, without blinking.  Then tend to not have a very strong fan base and cant afford to hold on to anyone, as they ended up flipping Cabrera himself.

[jorgenswest]

10-15 games is still a small sample.  I don't disagree that Sano is likely to be a sub-par defender, but I'm not going to start shuffling pieces on that yet.  

 

I would trust what the Twins' minor league coaches say for sure, but we don't have access to that information.

 

I think a lot more can be seen than culled from data. Data requires large samples. A skilled scout seeing a player at different times during the season can learn a lot in a small number of games. Their work is worthy of respect. I object to their work and reports being labeled garbage.

[Twodogs]

There are a lot of variables in play here.  I mean, who knows for sure that Vargas is going to be a stud?  We know he has potential, but he could end up hitting .190 too.  In that case wouldn't it be smart to keep Plouffe as a possible DH??  You know, the Twins have a lot of players without much of a track record.  We are always dumping people or adding people on this board according to potential and whatnot.  Plouffe has had some success against MLB pitching, many of the guys have had just a cup of coffee and we really don't know as of yet.

[glunn]

whoa whoa whoa! What makes you think Plouffe is going to trend upwards in 2015? Significantly better?

 

Please explain. I want to ride your train.

 

My comment is based on my sense that Plouffe has great tools that could be improved with hard work, and my hope that Molitor will be able to help Plouffe improve his focus.  Also, in my post I linked to Killebrew's stats, and I think that there is a chance that Plouffe, like Killebrew, could eventually have a breakout season and a great career.

 

I could be totally wrong about Plouffe, but I still have hope that he could become an outstanding player.