Sano v. Plouffe

[TheLeviathan]

I think a lot more can be seen than culled from data. Data requires large samples. A skilled scout seeing a player at different times during the season can learn a lot in a small number of games. Their work is worthy of respect. I object to their work and reports being labeled garbage.

I don't think a spread out sampling is any less of a small sample. When you watch a pitcher he's on the whole time. A batter will be up and on display regularly. A fielder? You could see one chance the whole game.

 

This erratic nature of defense I'd unlike scouting offense or pitching skills. It's how Trevor Plouffe is a two time "best infielder" according to BA. I could list others too that are simply preposterous.

 

Only the Twins have a good idea about Sano's true defensive abilities, the rest of us are going to need to see more.

[Bark's Lounge]

whoa whoa whoa! What makes you think Plouffe is going to trend upwards in 2015? Significantly better?

 

Please explain. I want to ride your train.

I know Glunn already responded to this, but I thought I would add my two cents. My apologies.

 

Last season it appeared Plouffe came to the plate with a new approach, he was more patient, hit to the opposite field more, reduced his strikeouts a little bit and still hit for a decent amount of power (40 Doubles and 14HRs).

 

I would guess Brunansky and Plouffe came up with a new strategy last offseason/spring training and going into year two of this new approach, I can definitely see Trevor being more comfortable in his skin at the plate. It should be no surprise to any of us if he improves in every facet of the game, he may even feel comfortable enough to take some calculated risks and drive some of those balls into the LF bleachers. Also to note his defense really improved last season - why can't he get even better?

[brvama]

Since LY was a missed year for Sano, I come to realize it was out-of-sight/out-of mind for me regarding him also. And since age has overloaded my data bank, I thought I’d go to BA and do a comparison of their career so far. To be honest, I was a bit surprised just how good Sano was and actually how c onsistent and improved Plouffe was in AA & AAA.

 

Plouffe started in 2004 as a 1st round pick (20th) and began his career at age 18.

Year(age);League;Games; Ave/OBP/SLG/OPS; ..Rank/League/Twins/BA

2004 (18): R-App (60g) .283/.340/.380/.720 ... 6 / 12 / -

2005 (19): A-MWL (127g) .223/.300/.345/.645 ...12 / 9 / -

2006 (20): A+FSL (125g) .246/.333/.347/.680 ...- / 19 / -

2007 (21): AA-EL (126g) .274/.326/.410/.736 ...- / 10 / -

2008 (22): AA-EL (58g) .269/.325/.410/.735 ... - / 13 / -

2008 >>>: AAA (60g) .256/.292/.420/.712

2009 (23): AAA (118g) .260/.313/.407/.720 ....- / 24 / -

2010 (24): AAA (102g) .244/.300/.430/.730 ....- / 24 / -

2010 >>>: Twins (20g) .146/.143/.317/.460

2011 (25): AAA (51g) .313/.384/.635/1.019

2011 >>>: Twins (81g) .238/.305/.392/.697

2012 (26): Twins (119g) .235/.301/.455/.756 [+2g rehab AAA]

2013 (27): Twins (129g) .254/.309/.392/.701 [+4g rehab AAA]

2014 (28): Twins (136g) .258/.328/.423/.751

 

Minor League: Age 18-25 (7+) (839g) .258/.320/.405/.725

Major League: Age 25-28 (4) (487g) .245/.309/.415/.724

 

BEST TOOLS League Twins Organization

Best Defensive Infielder 2004

Best Defensive Infielder 2005

 

Sano was signed out of Domincan Republic in 2009(?) and began his career at age of 17.

Year(age);League; Games; Ave/OBP/SLG/OPS; Rank/League/Twins/BA

2010 (17) R-DSL (20g) .344/.463/.547/1.010 ....- / 4 / 94 (2009)

2010 >>>> R-GCl (41g) .291/.338/.466/.804 ....2 / 3 / 60 (2010)

2011 (18) R-App (66g) .292/.352/.637/.989 ....1 / 1 / 18

2012 (19) A-MWL (129g) .258/.373/.521/.894 ....2 / 1 / 9

2013 (20) A+FSL (56g) .330/.424/.655/1.079 ....- / 2 / 6

2013 >>>> AA-EL (67g) .236/.344/.571/.915

2014 (21) DNP

Minor League Age 17-20 (379g) .279/.373/.567/.940

 

BEST TOOLS League Twins Organization

Best Power Prospect MWL 2012 2010-2011-2012

Best Infield Arm MWL 2012 2012

 

The area I find somewhat intriguing is their defensive ratings. Both came in as SS. Plouffe began his career as the Twins top defensive infielder. But IIRC, when he came to the Twins and moved to 3B, he struggled. It was with much coaching, hard work, and experience that he has rounded himself into an average plus defender. I remember one of his biggest problems was his throwing errors. That seems to have been corrected.

 

On the other hand, Sano sounds like he has a great arm. I think much of his problem came with positioning and adjusting to the hot corner. As with Plouffe, Sano could develop into at least an average fielder with the proper coaching, work, and time.

 

This leads me to the difference in time to the Twins. While both came in at relatively at the same age, it took Plouffe 7 plus years to grab a seat on the Twins roster. Sano could very possibly be here 3 years sooner. Hitting wise he was almost there. Considering the youth of Sano, a couple years of fielding struggles seems worth it to develop a long-term stud at 3rd base.

 

And I see no reason, other than a very favorable trade, to let Plouffe go for now.

 

 

(I apologize on the lack of formatting for the chart. Tried to edit it twice and nothing changes.)

[kab21]

I can't wait to see the analysis about Sano's defense after just 5 games in the majors.  10-15 games in person plus additional TV games (MiLB.tv) is going to give an experienced scout a pretty good idea about a player's defense.  Any more than this and you are talking about a dedicated evaluator that only follows one team. 

 

Plouffe actually has decent defensive tools although he is perhaps a bit short on range.  I always compared him to JJ Hardy except Plouffe couldn't hit the 1Bman with a throw.

[BK432]

I don't want to get too presumptuous about what certain player can do and not do, but good organizations figure out how to deal with good problems such as the one that led off this string. If Plouffe has the kind of season you're talking about, and if Sano tears the cover off the ball at AA/AAA all year (and maybe during a September cup of coffee at MLB), then Molitor/Ryan et. al. have an amazing problem on their hands.

 

I'm with Bark that I have a huge hang-up trading a contributor like Plouffe (if he hits for numbers like that). So...the first conversation I try to have is with Mr. Joe Mauer. Will Joe make a move to RF? His arm and athleticism would play very well at Target Field RF in my opinion. If 1B is freed up, Sano or Plouffe could move over there.

 

There's a lot of ifs in this - but I think it's a road to explore.

[TheLeviathan]

I can't wait to see the analysis about Sano's defense after just 5 games in the majors.  10-15 games in person plus additional TV games (MiLB.tv) is going to give an experienced scout a pretty good idea about a player's defense.  Any more than this and you are talking about a dedicated evaluator that only follows one team. 

 

Plouffe actually has decent defensive tools although he is perhaps a bit short on range.  I always compared him to JJ Hardy except Plouffe couldn't hit the 1Bman with a throw.

 

Oh cmon, most scouts acknowledge they don't get to see players in person much at all and much of their scouting work is done from cut-up tapes.  You keep adding things on to the plate that just aren't really there in a scouting profile.

 

It's not a diss on scouting, it's just the nature of the beast.  Getting a true picture of a player's defensive abilities takes a lot of sample (whether that is with eye test or defensive metrics) to get an accurate idea and that's just not possible. 

 

Here is a relevant article.  And some quotes:

"Outfield-wise, oh boy . . . it's a real crapshoot. To see an outfielder do a few things, shoot, you might have to watch five games."

 

For me, of course over a couple of years with a college guy and you hope to see him a couple of times per year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm just taking the reality of scouting and being clear about the practical effect that has on a scout's accuracy.

[Mike Sixel]

The question wasn't "will they both be good, or whatever", the question was "what if they are both good".....so in the spirit of answering the OP's actual question......

 

I'd trade Plouffe for real asset(s). I'm a believer that actual MLB players are more important than depth, and that if you have an excess in one area, you should trade from that to get better. Given that, I'd deal Plouffe (assuming he puts up the numbers the OP suggested, the return will be quite nice). I roll the dice on the Twins' belief (that they have made, gotta take them at their word) that Sano will play 3B for several years at least.

[kab21]

Oh cmon, most scouts acknowledge they don't get to see players in person much at all and much of their scouting work is done from cut-up tapes.  You keep adding things on to the plate that just aren't really there in a scouting profile.

 

You are talking about the BA/BP/ESPN scouts/columnists.  Yes, they don't get to see many games but that doesn't mean that there aren't pro scouts that follow a region all summer and see a lot of games.  And BA constantly references conversations with those guys.