Article: The Case For Brett Anderson (Again)

[Nick Nelson]

I feel like I've written this article before. Maybe that's because I have.

 

A year ago, Brett Anderson looked like a good target for the Twins to pursue. This time around, because of his circumstances -- and the team's -- he seems like an even more logical fit.

 

Will Terry Ryan feel the same way? And if so, what will it cost to bring in the left-hander?Last offseason, Anderson was a known trade candidate, with just one guaranteed season remaining on his contract and Oakland's rotation flush with young talent. Given his age, his previous success and his depressed value coming off a bad season, he had the makings of a great buy-low candidate with big upside.

 

Ultimately, it was another pitching-needy team that chose to take the gamble on Anderson, as the Rockies shipped out a couple of prospects in December to bring him aboard.

 

That move didn't really pan out for Colorado. Once again, the oft-injured hurler could not stay healthy. He made only eight starts, finishing with 43 1/3 total innings. A fractured finger cost him most of the first half, and a bulging disc in his back that required surgery cost him most of the second.

 

It was the fifth straight year in which health issues prevented Anderson from being able to get in anywhere close to a full season's work. He hasn't completed even 45 innings in any of the past three years.

 

The overwhelming durability concerns caused the Rockies to opt out of his 2015 option, making him a free agent, and he might have trouble finding a guaranteed contract. Now is the perfect time for a savvy GM to strike, and the Twins are in a better position than perhaps any other club to do so.

 

Obviously, Minnesota needs pitching help about as badly as anyone. But they also have considerable depth in the rotation, with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey and others all potentially in the mix. It might not be great quality of depth, but you can argue that all those guys deserve a chance.

 

The Twins can afford to gamble on an injury risk like Anderson because if he gets hurt once again, they have viable options to fall back on. It's also an attractive situation for the player. Whereas a contending team would want to have strong contingency plans in place -- and thus, a higher barrier of entry -- the lefty should have no trouble locking up a spot in this rotation as long as he's healthy and effective in spring training. From a pure talent perspective, he would be arguably the best starter on the roster.

 

Beyond the mutually beneficial circumstances in place, there are three key reasons I believe Anderson makes a ton of sense for Ryan and the Twins.

 

He's still really young. Hughes was 27 when the Twins signed him last year -- uncommonly young for a free agent. Anderson doesn't turn 27 until February, so he's still right in the midst of his physical prime. And the silver lining in all the injuries and setbacks is that his arm is still pretty fresh. It's rare to find a starting pitcher who's been in the majors for six years and has thrown fewer than 500 innings.

 

He doesn't have chronic arm injuries. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery and hasn't had any elbow issues since. The first injury that cost him several months this year was a broken finger suffered when he got hit by a pitch while batting -- total freak incident and not a long-term concern. The bulging disc that ended his season is more worrisome, as he battled low back soreness late in 2013 as well, but his August surgery hopefully resolved the problem. He should be 100 percent in March. As far as rehab projects go, Anderson's a much safer bet than someone like Josh Johnson or Chad Billingsley, both of whom are coming back from arm operations.

 

He's still got it. Although his 2014 campaign did nothing to reverse his rep for being fragile, Anderson did show something while on the mound. In an admittedly small sample size, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA and 2.99 FIP, and did so while making half his starts at Coors Field. He looked very much like the guy who had emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the game years earlier.

 

Anderson is the rare example of a young pitcher who could be signed to a low-money, low-years deal while offering the real potential to be a No. 2 or No. 3 type in the rotation. Those opportunities don't come along very often and the Twins should be looking to pounce on this one if they can.

 

His history of health problems is daunting, but one of these years Anderson is going to stay on the field and when he does I suspect that the team that employs him will benefit greatly. No club could use that boost more than the Twins.

 

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[beckmt]

Would like this to happen depending on price.  Much better upside than many of the other names being suggested for the Twins.

[USAFChief]

Concur.

[nytwinsfan]

100% agree.  What Twins need is upside, not a fifth 4-5 starter. The heck with Masterson. If all we are going to get is a 4.50 ERA, might as well have that spot taken by Meyer or May (or later Berrios). With Anderson, we get either a 3.25-3.50 ERA (which is worth not starting Meyer or May) or an injury (in which case Meyer or May).

[Molitor4manager]

Anderson would be a smart addition.  You can NEVER have too much pitching or too many options.

[jokin]

100% agree.  What Twins need is upside, not a fifth 4-5 starter.

 

The heck with Masterson. If all we are going to get is a 4.50 ERA,

 

might as well have that spot taken by Meyer or May (or later Berrios). With Anderson, we get either a 3.25-3.50 ERA (which is worth not starting Meyer or May) or an injury (in which case Meyer or May).

Are you sure about that?

 

2010-2014 Stats:

 

Garza-   IP/Y-  165  K/9- 7.45 FIP/xFIP- 3.76/3.76

Hughes  IP/Y-  159  K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.92/4.05

Masterson  IP/Y- 184  K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.79/3.79

Edited November 19, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

100% agree.  What Twins need is upside, not a fifth 4-5 starter. The heck with Masterson. If all we are going to get is a 4.50 ERA, might as well have that spot taken by Meyer or May (or later Berrios). With Anderson, we get either a 3.25-3.50 ERA (which is worth not starting Meyer or May) or an injury (in which case Meyer or May).

 

 

The Twins are said to have as a top priority at least one, if not two, SPs.  Masterson and Anderson together would be a perfect fit for the Twins needs in the short-term.

[Otwins]

I hit the like button 5 times on Jokin comment- I would go for Masterson and Anderson - start May and Meyer in the pen.  Move them into the rotation as starters get hurt or are ineffective. No more PJ Walters, Pedro Hernandez, Samuel Deduno, Mike Pelfrey - As the article stated we have depth but not quality depth. Making these moves would change that.

[Seth Stohs]

Minor League Deal... Absolutely!

He was pretty good, and he's still young. Like some others, he's a good reclamation project. 

My concern is that when a guy is hurt every year, he's hurt every year. There is some upside considering his youth. 

[stringer bell]

After Masterson, Anderson is my second choice (Josh Johnson #3). Nice writeup by Nick highlighting his positives. I think an incentive-laden contract makes sense, because if he stays healthy, there's not much question he'll be worth pretty good money. Also, maybe a vesting option so that the Twins could perhaps get another year out of him if he's healthy.

[jokin]

I hit the like button 5 times on Jokin comment- I would go for Masterson and Anderson - start May and Meyer in the pen.  Move them into the rotation as starters get hurt or are ineffective. No more PJ Walters, Pedro Hernandez, Samuel Deduno, Mike Pelfrey - As the article stated we have depth but not quality depth. Making these moves would change that.

 

Yep, yep, yep.  I wrote about that previously.  With this potential Starting 5, the Twins would be in the position of having the best SP depth in quite some time, maybe ever, and takes the pressure off of the prospects and the Twins to expect immediate impact out of ST.  Should Anderson and/or Masterson falter, you still have the Triple M Plan B depth of (May, Meyer, Milone), plus possibly Pelfrey, Rogers, Darnell, Gilmartin, Duffey and perhaps later in the season, the best of them all, Jose Berrios.  And with short-term FA contracts, no significant blocking of prospects going forward.

[Nick Nelson]

My concern is that when a guy is hurt every year, he's hurt every year.

 

... Until he's not.

 

If it was a recurring injury or chronic arm problem, I'd see it as a greater concern. I just think he's had an unfortunate series of ailments. He's far from a sure thing but I'd still probably be willing to give him an MLB deal if that's what it took. It'd be a better move than giving guaranteed money to Pelfrey 8 months off Tommy John.

 

At the very least, a minor-league deal with hefty reachable incentives. They can afford it.

[The Wise One]

Sign any low risk high reward player you can. The emphasis is high reward as oposed to mediocre reward.

[Lonestar]

I think it will take guaranteed money + incentives to land Anderson.  And I would do it.  I would hope to add a team option if he makes some of those incentives.

[tobi0040]

I think it will take guaranteed money + incentives to land Anderson.  And I would do it.  I would hope to add a team option if he makes some of those incentives.

 

If the alternative is nothing, sure, bring Anderson on board.  I would prefer a guy that is helping this team in 2016 and 2017 though, like Ervin Santana.   But if we do sign Anderson, I would like to see a team option for the next year.  Something less than the $15M qualifying offer.

 

If we give him one year and somehow he stays healthy and pitches well, he may want a 2-3 year deal.  Would we give it to him?  He has pitched 205 innings over the last four years.  Seems way more risky than a one year team option for say $9-10M.

 

It was a nice article. I do find it encouraging as well that his recent issues have not been arm or shoulder related. 

 

I do take issue with the inclusion of Mike Pelfrey in the statement "you could argue all of these guys deserve a chance". 

 

He has pitched 176 IP across two seasons for us.   I calculate an ERA of 5.55, a WHIP of 1.61 with 5.6 K per 9. 

Edited November 19, 2014 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

... Until he's not.

 

If it was a recurring injury or chronic arm problem, I'd see it as a greater concern. I just think he's had an unfortunate series of ailments. He's far from a sure thing but I'd still probably be willing to give him an MLB deal if that's what it took. It'd be a better move than giving guaranteed money to Pelfrey 8 months off Tommy John.

 

At the very least, a minor-league deal with hefty reachable incentives. They can afford it.

 

Not to mention that if he didn't have the injury concerns, he likely would cost more than the Twins would be willing to pay.

[Linus]

I like this idea as my only recommended pitching addition (this is assuming we are not in on any of the big 3). 

 

Here's why: the only addition that makes sense is to bring somebody in who helps the quality of the rotation, not the quantity (we have plenty of that).  The question with Anderson isn't if he will add quality, it is will he stay healthy.  If he is healthy, we improved our rotation; if he is not, Meyer, May, whoever steps in and gets to pitch which is not a bad thing.

 

If we sign somebody who we can afford because they are inconsistent in their performance, we could end up with a situation where they are pitching badly but are still getting their starts (at the expense of Meyer or May) simply because of their contract.  While I believe TR will eat Pelfrey's contract, I doubt anybody is eating a contract for $10+ million which is likely what it will take to get Masterson.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Linus

[USNMCPO]

It seems the choice here is between a 10 year old Mercedes and a 12 year old Plymouth. I think I would take the chance on the Mercedes.

[tobi0040]

Not to mention that if he didn't have the injury concerns, he likely would cost more than the Twins would be willing to pay.

 

I would just give Ervin a 3 year deal with an option over Masterson or Anderson.  Since his age 25 season, he had had just two clunkers in seven years.  The other five, 3.49, 3.92, 3.38, 3.24, and 3.95.  He has been very  healthy as well.

[pkiguy22]

My concern with a guy like his injury history is the Twins track record of getting injured people healthy. How many times have we heard stories about players playing through pain because of the team "culture"? Too many for me. That being said, he does have some good numbers when healthy and a lefty to boot is never a bad thing.

[Brandon]

Anderson would be a smart addition.  You can NEVER have too much pitching or too many options.

or too many ? marks either.

[GoGonzoJournal]

The bulging disc really worries me, but I'd still give him a minor league deal with an invite. I've had disc issues for five years. They don't go away, even after surgery, unless you have disc replacement surgery, which can't be done in the US.

[Nick Nelson]

The bulging disc really worries me, but I'd still give him a minor league deal with an invite. I've had disc issues for five years. They don't go away, even after surgery, unless you have disc replacement surgery, which can't be done in the US.

 

Good input, and good points. I'll admit I don't know much about the injury and there isn't a long list of pitchers who've been through it to go on for precedent. But on a one-year deal (with a club option, ideally), I still think the risk is worth it.

[James Richter]

There are a lot of teams interested in Anderson - a minor-league deal isn't going to cut it. He should get a guaranteed $7-8M because he so good that he only needs to pitch about 50 innings to be worth that. Hire him expecting to get 50 excellent IP. If he stays healthy beyond that, hey - jackpot!

 

The Twins almost always hire a FA pitcher, but usually it's Livan Hernandez, or Sidney Ponson, or Jason Marquis. They don't give the Twins 200 IP either, because they get dropped mid-season, because they're crappy. Not getting 200 IP from Anderson instead would represent progress.

[nytwinsfan]

There are a lot of teams interested in Anderson - a minor-league deal isn't going to cut it. He should get a guaranteed $7-8M because he so good that he only needs to pitch about 50 innings to be worth that. Hire him expecting to get 50 excellent IP. If he stays healthy beyond that, hey - jackpot!

 

The Twins almost always hire a FA pitcher, but usually it's Livan Hernandez, or Sidney Ponson, or Jason Marquis. They don't give the Twins 200 IP either, because they get dropped mid-season, because they're crappy. Not getting 200 IP from Anderson instead would represent progress.

Completely agree, but unfortunately that is pretty far from the way Terry Ryan views things.