Josh Willingham trade value?

[Shane Wahl]

I agree about Bedard and Jackson. Maholm is overachieving.

[Rosterman]

Willingham has a great tradeable contract. You can get something for him similar to what the Twins did when they traded for Capps///a player that has starting potential that is blocked (say Ramos) and a possible prospect (Testa). Might even be able to get a second prospect. But you should be able to get a guy that can be more than serviceable in the major leagues. A starter, I don't know...unless you are also trading for salary and grabbing someone in the last year of arbitration, but only if you caremto sign longterm and that's part of the deal.

[jokin]

I agree about Bedard and Jackson. Maholm is overachieving.

I agree about Maholm, I did throw him in there to avoid the appearance of cherry-picking. Still, his numbers on the miserable Cubs team, in a hitter-friendly park, are still impressive. His career slash line is OBA: .281/WHIP: 1.42/ERA: 4.37 which is still a far better career line than Marquis and 4 years younger, for only $1.25 Mil more.

[Shane Wahl]

There's 2.67 years and $18 million on it right now!

[Mike Sixel]

Oh, I agree, there were better choices available than Marquis, but since he's one in a long line of similar signings under Ryan, I'm assuming he'll continue to repeat the same mistakes over and over. I hope to be wrong. Heck, with guts, they could have found takers for those contracts you mentioned, let Capps go, and signed Darvish.....

[Nick Nelson]

1)Eric Bedard Age: 33 Team: Pitt. $4.5 Mil. OBA: .247/ WHIP: 1.35/ERA: 3.12

 

2)Paul Maholm Age: 29 Team: Cubs $4.25 Mil. OBA: .245/ WHIP: 1.26/ ERA: 4.62

 

3)Edwin Jackson Age: 28 Team: Wash. $10.958 Mil. OBA: .219/ WHIP: 1.03/ ERA: 3.17

 

Bedard is looking like a huge whiff. But the Twins had no reason to pay Jackson $10M, and they already have a cheaper Paul Maholm clone in Brian Duensing.

 

It is sort of amazing how the Twins always seem to sign bottom-of-the-barrel free agent SPs while passing on guys who, while slightly more expensive, go on to have much more success. I wonder if the issue here is a true unwillingness to spend the extra $1.5M it would take to get a guy like Bedard, or if the player evaluation is so bad that they actually think they're getting a good bargain when they sign guys like Marquis, Ponson, Livan and Ortiz. I'm not sure which would be worse.

[ashbury]

There's 2.67 years and $18 million on it right now!

Here's what I don't get: around six months ago, any of the other 29 teams could have signed Josh Willingham. All they had to do was outbid the Minnesota Frickin Twins - not a hard thing to do most off-seasons. "Josh, they're offering you 3 years and only $21M? We'll make it $22M." Done. Now, here in May-going-on-June, some team is suddenly going to offer an attractive package of young talent, in order to take on $18M or so of the remaining contract? Are they going to rub their hands in glee and say "we saved $4M and all we had to give up was our best starting pitching prospect and a couple of middling hitting prospects"? Why would they do it?

 

The Twins have to wait until someone's need due to injury or whatever is a lot higher than right now.

[PopRiveter]

Fun thread, but almost none of the responses attempt to answer the question.

I expect Willingham would bring a higher return in a trade than any other player on the roster. A:he's healthy B:good track record C: currently producing at a high level D:great contract status

i would hate to see him go, but if you want to use trades to rebuild, he is exactly the player you need to swallow hard and trade away. Consider too E:as a free agent, all they have invested in him is this year's salary.

to sign Willingham, pay him for a few months and flip the modest investment for a good prospect could be a shrewd way to add some needed talent.

What sort of starter might Willingham realistically fetch in a trade?

[Nick Nelson]

Here's what I don't get: around six months ago, any of the other 29 teams could have signed Josh Willingham. All they had to do was outbid the Minnesota Frickin Twins - not a hard thing to do most off-seasons. "Josh, they're offering you 3 years and only $21M? We'll make it $22M." Done. Now, here in May-going-on-June, some team is suddenly going to offer an attractive package of young talent, in order to take on $18M or so of the remaining contract? Are they going to rub their hands in glee and say "we saved $4M and all we had to give up was our best starting pitching prospect and a couple of middling hitting prospects"? Why would they do it?

Great post. I think a lot of people are exaggerating Willingham's trade value. As you mention, everyone had a shot at signing him during the offseason and he didn't draw much interest. Two good months aren't going to suddenly have teams across the league clamoring for him. The downsides that tempered his market – his age and his injury history – haven't gone away.

 

This isn't the first time Willingham has started our at a Herculean pace. Check his halfway stats in '09 and '10. GMs are aware of that.

[twinzgrl]

Love the Hammer. But, seriously, the Twins need a decent starting pitcher. They need one BAD. They must listen to all offers to get one. To be respectable again, or even .500, we need a good starter. Only problem, one might not be enough.

[Top Gun]

The Twins will win 80+ games this year, so what is your problem?

[mikeee]

Keep the hammer. I don't think they could get a good starting pitcher that cheap.

[SweetOne69]

Fun thread, but almost none of the responses attempt to answer the question.

I expect Willingham would bring a higher return in a trade than any other player on the roster. A:he's healthy B:good track record C: currently producing at a high level D:great contract status

i would hate to see him go, but if you want to use trades to rebuild, he is exactly the player you need to swallow hard and trade away. Consider too E:as a free agent, all they have invested in him is this year's salary.

to sign Willingham, pay him for a few months and flip the modest investment for a good prospect could be a shrewd way to add some needed talent.

What sort of starter might Willingham realistically fetch in a trade?

From what I understand both the Reds and Indians had interest in Willingham and he chose to sign with the Twins.

[cr9617]

The Twins will win 80+ games this year, so what is your problem?

How does 18-32 project to 80+ wins?

[Riverbrian]

Here's what I don't get: around six months ago, any of the other 29 teams could have signed Josh Willingham. All they had to do was outbid the Minnesota Frickin Twins - not a hard thing to do most off-seasons. "Josh, they're offering you 3 years and only $21M? We'll make it $22M." Done. Now, here in May-going-on-June, some team is suddenly going to offer an attractive package of young talent, in order to take on $18M or so of the remaining contract? Are they going to rub their hands in glee and say "we saved $4M and all we had to give up was our best starting pitching prospect and a couple of middling hitting prospects"? Why would they do it?

 

The Twins have to wait until someone's need due to injury or whatever is a lot higher than right now.

Great post... I agree completely. I'm am worried about the state of Twins pitching and fear a stretch of mediocre or worse because of it. I would trade anyone for an arm. I don't see Willingham as giving back much in return unless he continues to rake up to the all star break and injuries deplete a contender. Willingham will most likely be with us in 2014 because his value to us will be much greater than the value he provides as trade bait. 2014 is The year our return to glory begins. (hopefully).

[jokin]

Bedard is looking like a huge whiff. But the Twins had no reason to pay Jackson $10M, and they already have a cheaper Paul Maholm clone in Brian Duensing.

 

It is sort of amazing how the Twins always seem to sign bottom-of-the-barrel free agent SPs while passing on guys who, while slightly more expensive, go on to have much more success. I wonder if the issue here is a true unwillingness to spend the extra $1.5M it would take to get a guy like Bedard, or if the player evaluation is so bad that they actually think they're getting a good bargain when they sign guys like Marquis, Ponson, Livan and Ortiz. I'm not sure which would be worse.

1) I'm not sure why the Twins had "no reason" to go after Jackson. If they were serious about putting the team back on the rails and making a statement that 2011 was an anomaly, this was the logical acquisition- ie, a front-end starter with an incentive-laden short-term contract.

 

2) Good call on the statistical clone to Maholm being Brian Duensing, it does look identical on paper. However, Duensing has only had one year primarily as a starter and last year was an unmitigated disaster (especially the L/R split), and exposed why the Twins did not and apparently do not consider him as a potential future starter. This is the ugly 2011 slash line: OBA: .299/WHIP: 1.52/ERA 5.23. Maholm has never appeared in a MLB game except as a starter, making 194 starts for the terrible Pirates and now the terrible Cubs, a "proven" starter with underwhelming numbers. Sadly, but accurately, Maholm would still have represented an upgrade to the Twin starting pitching.

 

3)Your suppositions in your summary paragraph are spot on and identify and clarify a set of systemic problems in the Twins organiztion, not just the Bill Smith Era. I think the answer is: "BOTH" and they are equally disastrous to a team with little margin for error in personnel evaluation.

[darin617]

All true.....

 

Except Mauer...he's untouchable, but not from the Twins perspective.

Don't you mean Mauer is untradeable with the years left and the amount of $/yr for a "catcher" who has not played catcher for half of the games he has played so far this season. Mauer's contract reflects an MVP contract not a guy who will hit for average with no power. If you really want to think about what separates Golden Joe and Doug Mientkiewicz? 40-50 points on the batting average and the power numbers probably equal....

[darin617]

Willingham is not going to be traded this year given that he has two more years on his contract. Sheesh.

I guess if this was 2013 then this would be brought up every other day. Just think what Carlos Beltran cost the Giants for a rental for a few months last season. Zach Wheeler the 6th pick overall 2009 MLB June Amateur Draft.

[Nick Nelson]

1) I'm not sure why the Twins had "no reason" to go after Jackson. If they were serious about putting the team back on the rails and making a statement that 2011 was an anomaly, this was the logical acquisition- ie, a front-end starter with an incentive-laden short-term contract.

Do you think they really believed they were going to be able to contend this year? Look at how far away they are. One starter wasn't going to make the difference and they probably understood that.

 

Also, Jackson wasn't going to sign in the AL when all he's doing is trying to do is maintain/boost his value on a one-year deal to take another shot at FA next winter.

 

2) Good call on the statistical clone to Maholm being Brian Duensing, it does look identical on paper. However, Duensing has only had one year primarily as a starter and last year was an unmitigated disaster (especially the L/R split), and exposed why the Twins did not and apparently do not consider him as a potential future starter. This is the ugly 2011 slash line: OBA: .299/WHIP: 1.52/ERA 5.23.

Meh. Duensing's numbers during last year's "unmitigated disaster" were not much different from Maholm's career marks. Neither gets RHB out.

[jokin]

Do you think they really believed they were going to be able to contend this year? Look at how far away they are. One starter wasn't going to make the difference and they probably understood that.

 

Also, Jackson wasn't going to sign in the AL when all he's doing is trying to do is maintain/boost his value on a one-year deal to take another shot at FA next winter.

 

 

Meh. Duensing's numbers during last year's "unmitigated disaster" were not much different from Maholm's career marks. Neither gets RHB out.

'I would have thought it impossible to defend Duensing's performance last year, if that wasn't an exposure of one man's limitations, I'm not certain what else would be. Maholm's mediocre career .281/1.42/4.37 is statistically different enough that Maholm has been a career starter exclusively and Deunsing has apparently convinced the Twins he is only a glorified LOOGY, even on the worst team in baseball (2011) and 2nd worst (2012). And, given the sorry state of the current Twins starting staff, a staff to which Duensing no longer evidently qualifies for, Maholm's 2012 numbers would be sparkling by comparison, even with the unfavorable RHB comps.

[jokin]

Do you think they really believed they were going to be able to contend this year? Look at how far away they are. One starter wasn't going to make the difference and they probably understood that.

 

Also, Jackson wasn't going to sign in the AL when all he's doing is trying to do is maintain/boost his value on a one-year deal to take another shot at FA next winter.

No, I didn't think they believed they were going to be able to contend, my argument on the other thread was just that, in that they had grossly misallocated resources. I profferred a scenario to make a quick fix to carry the team over until the next cycle of players are ready. I agree that one starter wouldn't have made a difference, but given the state of the pitching staff, and the promise made to the community, it was incumbent on the Twins to hit the pitching FA market hard, attempt to get not one, but three starters. The Twins actually did less than nothing, by acquiring Marquis, who obviously had nothing left. Jackson would have been a tough get, but you can't make a blanket statement with certainty about what Jackson would or wouldn't do, especially once Ryan and the agent get into the same room, you never know what can happen when/if/as the agent's, player's and GM's agendas converge (IE "pitcher-friendly" park, cheaper COL rate, an extra $Million or two, agent's other FAs, etc.) and he was a late signee showing there was time to negotiate.

[beckmt]

Maholm is a National league pitcher. That makes him worse than comparible stats from the American league.

Twins need to find out how many of their minor league outfielders will make the grade, I have serious doubts about Benson ever being major league quality.

Unless TR gets a deal he can't refuse, Willingham should be here this year and to the middle of next

You have to pitch to win, but bying 3 type 3 or better SP will be expensive.

Doumit will be a much better trade canidate this year as will Span.

[Guest USAFChief]

Do you think they really believed they were going to be able to contend this year? Look at how far away they are. One starter wasn't going to make the difference and they probably understood that.

 

 

I'm not so sure the Twins completely wrote off contending in 2012. I know it's mostly just PR for public consumption, but pretty much everything coming out of the Twins mouths for the past 12 months has been about injuries and bad luck. If they were convinced they had no shot in 2012, why sign Carroll? Doumit? Willingham? For that matter, why sign Marquis?

 

Hell, I'm not even convinced Twins management is ready to admit the severity of the situation to themselves or the public today. There's a certain, I don't know, arrogance to the whole Twins management regime that hasn't evaporated yet.

[Highabove]

Rule 1. Never pay a Closer for a non contending Team.

 

Ryan paid over 4.5 million tight budget dollars + 1st round draft pick for a Closer.

 

A. Ryan must have believed that the Twins would be a contender.

 

B. Ryan has turned stupid the second time around.

 

Which is it? It has to be one or the other!

[Bark's Lounge]

If the Twins do indeed intend on trading the likes of Willingham, Span, or whomever, they better have their eyes focused on a grand prize. MLB GM's are tight fisted when it comes to giving up top prospects. That is the game now. You need an upper echelon player to fetch upper echelon prospects. Willingham and Span are very good players, but do not constitute that brand. We would better off holding on to them rather than trading them for a supposed future #4 Starter. As a fan, if that kind of trade went down, that would most definitely sink my ship.

[glunn]

If the Twins do indeed intend on trading the likes of Willingham' date=' Span, or whomever, they better have their eyes focused on a grand prize. MLB GM's are tight fisted when it comes to giving up top prospects. That is the game now. You need an upper echelon player to fetch upper echelon prospects. Willingham and Span are very good players, but do not constitute that brand. We would better off holding on to them rather than trading them for a supposed future #4 Starter. As a fan, if that kind of trade went down, that would most definitely sink my ship.[/quote']

 

It seems to me that most of us would agree that a "supposed #4 starter" would not be enough. The issue for many seems to be what would it take for us to feel good about such a trade. A potential #2 starter? A potential #3 starter plus a risky single A starter? Who can say for sure what a contender might offer if they feel a desperate need for a right handed batter with power?

[Nick Nelson]

'I would have thought it impossible to defend Duensing's performance last year, if that wasn't an exposure of one man's limitations, I'm not certain what else would be. Maholm's mediocre career .281/1.42/4.37 is statistically different enough that Maholm has been a career starter exclusively and Deunsing has apparently convinced the Twins he is only a glorified LOOGY

He wasn't that bad last year. Second-most IP on the team, 4.07 xFIP, solid K/BB ratio. Gave up a lot of hits but there was some bad luck and bad defense involved with that. I think calling his season an unmitigated disaster is a bit over-the-top.

 

To me, the Twins' decision to keep Duensing in the bullpen is more about playing to his strengths. The guy is elite when it comes to shutting down lefty hitters and you really mask that skill by playing him as a starter and letting opponents stack their lineups with righties. With that being said, I think he's a better option than some of the guys the club's throwing out there right now (such as Swarzak and DeVries... possibly Blackburn) so at this point I'm not opposed to giving him a shot even if it's not ideal.

 

If they were convinced they had no shot in 2012, why sign Carroll? Doumit? Willingham? For that matter, why sign Marquis?

One word: Stopgaps.

 

I'm not saying the Twins felt they had NO chance to compete this year. I just think they felt like the odds were slim enough that it wasn't worth investing $10M to add one extra pitcher. And they were right.

 

Rule 1. Never pay a Closer for a non contending Team.

 

Ryan paid over 4.5 million tight budget dollars + 1st round draft pick for a Closer.

 

A. Ryan must have believed that the Twins would be a contender.

 

B. Ryan has turned stupid the second time around.

 

Which is it? It has to be one or the other!

When it comes to Capps, logic seems to go out the window.