Jorge Polanco Appreciation Thread

[twins1095]

Jorge Polanco has had an absolutely incredible start to the season.  He's been pretty incredible at the plate since the last half of 2017 (if I recall correctly he's top 20 in OPS during that period; albeit in a smaller sample size than most).  

 

Let's take a quick deeper dive into the numbers to give some context of the type of production that we're watching on a daily basis.

 

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Polanco's current 2019 162 game pace

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Slash line (http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32525/jorge-polanco)

 

.317 avg - .388 obp  - .998 ops

 

Counting stats

 

102 Total XBH - (21 3B - 51 2B - 30 HR)

 

101 runs - 71 RBI - 0 SB - 72 BB - 96 K 

 

*Advanced Stats (https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13152&position=SS)

 

*1 game lag

 

9.7 BB%

14.2 K%

.323 BABIP

.393 wOBA

w147 RC+

.269 ISO

 

24.2 LD% - 54.5% FB% 

41.6 Hard Hit% - 41.6 Medium Hit% - 16.8 Soft Hit% 

1.4 fWAR

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.Conclusion 

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We can take this a number of ways, but the profile suggests this is legit.  Hits a ton of balls in play/doesn't strike out much/good strikezone profile, hits a ton of balls hard, hits a ton of line drives, more fly balls, plus baserunner, above average fielder.   He basically can do it all. 

 

The most noticable difference from last season is the LD%/FB% increases that have led to more consistent extra base power. Ticked up the BB rate and down the K rate as well.  

 

BABIP for a player with his hit tool and wOBA suggests he's pretty measurably putting up sustainable production.

 

The next logical discussion step is how good is Polanco, how can we judge him among his peers at SS and/or middle infielders?  Who are his player comparables?  How good can he be?

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Polanco stats since all-star break 2017.

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During the first portion of 2017, Polanco was one of the unluckiest players in the league with a BABIP near the league bottom and peripherals that suggested the talent previously seen before that season.  During August, that luck normalized and even reversed itself.  We will begin the sample on August 1st of 2017.

 

Sample Size 

 

2017 - 55g - 206 AB

2018 - 77g - 302 AB

2019 - 32g - 123 AB

 

Total - 164g - 631 AB

 

Totals 

 

164g - 631 ab - 86 runs - 191 hits - 43 2B - 9 3B - 22 HR - 96 RBI - 57 BB - 113K - 14 SB

 

Slash line

 

.303 avg - .360 obp - 504 slg% - .864 ops

 

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Based on 2018 stats among...

 

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All hitters

 

Avg (15th)

OBP (t33rd)

SLG (25th)

OPS (t23rd)

 

Shortstops

 

Avg (t2nd - Segura .304)

OBP (t2nd - Machado - .367 - Bogaerts .360)

SLG (6th - same 5 as below are ahead)

OPS (6th - Story .941 - Machado .905 - Bogaerts - .883 - Baez - .881 - Lindor .871)

 

Middle infielders

 

Avg (5th - Altuve .316 - Gennet .310 - Merrifield .304 - Segura .304)

OBP (t4th J. Ramirez .387 - Altuve .386 - Merrifield .367 + Machado above)

SLG (7th - J. Ramirez - .540 + 5 above)

OPS (7th - Altuve .939 + 5 above)

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Jorge Polanco is not quite thought of on the level of those players listed among his peers in the categories above.  It's just about time to stat thinking of Polanco as one of the best younger middle infielders in the game.  

 

Polanco has been around for seemingly ever, but at 25 years old he's actually really young--even younger than other MI's that we consider young phenoms.  Here are the 2018 top SS's by OPS

• Merrifield - 30 years old
• Wendle - 29 years old
• Gregorious - 29 years old
• Gennett - 29 years old
• Shaw - 29 years old
• Segura - 29 years old
• Altuve - 28 years old
• J. Ramirez - 26 years old
• Baez - 26 years old
• Story - 26 years old
• Machado - 26 years old
• Bogearts - 26 years old
• Jurickson Profar - 26 years old
• Trea Turner 25 (1 month older than Polanco)
• Ketel Marte - 25 years old (3 months younger than Polanco)
• Odor - 25 years old (7 months younger than Polanco / another one of those early MLB guys)
• Lindor - 25 years old (4 months younger than Polanco)
• Albies - 22 years old

 

Some players spend longer in the minors and do most of their development at the minor league level and essentially produce near their ceiling from almost day 1.  Players like Polanco, who hit the majors at 20 years old, and do a lot of their developing in the majors (also hampered by injuries/suspensions), can easily be penalized in a way that they shouldn't for playing against better competition than their age-peers generally playing at much lower levels.  Polanco is one of those such players.

 

Essentially other than Albies, Polanco is among the youngest tier of MI players producing at a high level in the MLB.  I thought that list would put things into perspective.

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Twins Daily, what are your thoughts on Polanco?  Do you consider him a top 5 SS in the MLB?  If not, when can those discussions begin?  Polanco is a really exciting young player that will hopefully be a staple in the middle of the Twins infield for the next 5-7 years minimum.

 

[NapoleonComplex]

I'll be the first to admit I've taken Polanco for granted. It bewildered me when he was originally called up at only 20-years old. It wasn't the "Twins way" which is likely why I didn't understand the move. He didn't look the part at SS, and it 2016 when he got his first real taste of the big leagues, from a defensive perspective, it seemed like the promotion came far too soon.

 

The bat gave me hopes of a top of the lineup table setter - and dang has he exceeded expectations early this season. He has been fun to watch develop at the MLB level ... again, very uncommon to say for a Twins prospect. The tide has certainly shifted for our young stars. I'd love to know the overall vibe for the guys in our system knowing the FO will promote based less on age and more by production. 

[bunt_vs_the_shift]

I'm a big Polanco guy. In spite of some defensive limitations, I feel he's brought a lot of value at SS and given us offensive production from a spot that the Twins have rarely gotten it from. Along with Schoop (who has delivered surprising results and has my vote as the team "glue guy"), the middle of the infield has been great this year.

[bighat]

Polanco's got All-Star numbers, but the fans will vote Lindor into the game as the starter (even though he won't deserve it) and Jorge will have to make the game as a reserve. Fan voting is a travesty and it's one of the best examples of marketing gone haywire.

 

That said, I'd much rather have Jorge starting a World Series game than an All Star game. And the best news is that he's not overlooked by this organization. Brilliant extension this offseason. Of all the Twins "can't miss" prospects, Jorge's turned out to be the best of the bunch so far. Mr. Reliable. No slumps. No drama. Love this kid.

[twins1095]

I'll be the first to admit I've taken Polanco for granted. It bewildered me when he was originally called up at only 20-years old. It wasn't the "Twins way" which is likely why I didn't understand the move. He didn't look the part at SS, and it 2016 when he got his first real taste of the big leagues, from a defensive perspective, it seemed like the promotion came far too soon.

 

The bat gave me hopes of a top of the lineup table setter - and dang has he exceeded expectations early this season. He has been fun to watch develop at the MLB level ... again, very uncommon to say for a Twins prospect. The tide has certainly shifted for our young stars. I'd love to know the overall vibe for the guys in our system knowing the FO will promote based less on age and more by production.

 

Polanco has flashed a big time XBH tool at times. In the off-season of 2017, there a number of articles diving deeply into his profile and suggesting something similar to 2016/2017 Jose Ramirez (before the huge power surge)as a comparison (we’ll probably a little bit of a Jose Ramirez-lite, but that’s where the ceiling is at.

 

Polanco’s pretty realistic floor at this point this season is 35+ 2B - 20+ HR - 7-8 3B - ~.285

 

 

He’s got a solid shot at 40+ 2B - 10 3B - 20+ HR - .300 average

[twins1095]

Polanco's got All-Star numbers, but the fans will vote Lindor into the game as the starter (even though he won't deserve it) and Jorge will have to make the game as a reserve. Fan voting is a travesty and it's one of the best examples of marketing gone haywire.

 

That said, I'd much rather have Jorge starting a World Series game than an All Star game. And the best news is that he's not overlooked by this organization. Brilliant extension this offseason. Of all the Twins "can't miss" prospects, Jorge's turned out to be the best of the bunch so far. Mr. Reliable. No slumps. No drama. Love this kid.

To be fair, no drama might be pushing it. The first 80 games of 2017 says otherwise.

 

 

Spot on post though I agree 100%.

[rdehring]

Although not living here when he played, have always seen some Rod Carew in Polanco.  Still possible they could have similar careers...although hopefully Polanco's will be played entirely at Target Field.

 

Just a shame that he didn't get a hit on his bunt last night, but the pitcher played that as well as you will ever see.  Have believed that like Carew, bunting should be a bigger part of Polanco's game.  Especially against those teams that use a shift against him.

[USAFChief]

102 Total XBH - (51 3B - 21 2B - 30 HR)

 

51 triples? did I read that correctly? 

 

I'm...skeptical.

 

I DO like Polanco's start, however. He's been fantastic, and he has taken quality PAs almost every time up, which seems sustainable, even if I doubt he's a .988 OPS guy long term.

[Tomj14]

 

?

 

That said, I'd much rather have Jorge starting a World Series game than an All Star game. And the best news is that he's not overlooked by this organization. Brilliant extension this offseason. Of all the Twins "can't miss" prospects, Jorge's turned out to be the best of the bunch so far. Mr. Reliable. No slumps. No drama. Love this kid.

No drama? I mean it was just last year that he served an 80 suspension for violating MLB drug Policy. (Stanozolol)

 

I will admit I was wrong on his potential ceiling, I didn't think it was this high.

 

I will ask this question, is it a coincidence that two of three highest OPS are former steroid users and the Twins are 21-12?

 

I ask that is jest, but I do think it interesting how people can hate certain players for roids, but hold others up on a mantle. (not saying any of the TD community but just in general)

 

[twins1095]

102 Total XBH - (51 3B - 21 2B - 30 HR)

 

51 triples? did I read that correctly?

 

I'm...skeptical.

 

I DO like Polanco's start, however. He's been fantastic, and he has taken quality PAs almost every time up, which seems sustainable, even if I doubt he's a .988 OPS guy long term.

Typo, Flipped around 2B and 3B. Good catch.

 

Can a mod edit? Or can I? I don’t see an immediate option to do so.

 

I don’t think anyone thinks .988 is realistic. His last 164 games he’s .864 OPS... so that is a realistic 162 game stretch. We’ll see what he ends up at but he’s quite literally done that on a season long sample.

[twins1095]

No drama? I mean it was just last year that he served an 80 suspension for violating MLB drug Policy. (Stanozolol)

 

I will admit I was wrong on his potential ceiling, I didn't think it was this high.

 

I will ask this question, is it a coincidence that two of three highest OPS are former steroid users and the Twins are 21-12?

 

I ask that is jest, but I do think it interesting how people can hate certain players for roids, but hold others up on a mantle. (not saying any of the TD community but just in general)

 

I’m not sure I really believe that steroids ultimately have much of a correlation to production other than in terms of injury recovery abilities which keeps you playing fresher on a more consistent basis. Time and time again we see guys who got suspended for roofs playing at the same level once they return.

[USAFChief]

 

Typo, Flipped around 2B and 3B. Good catch.

Can a mod edit?  

I 

done. 

 

Nice post, btw.

[twins1095]

 

done. 

 

Nice post, btw.

 

Thanks, I appreciate it.  I started out wanting to do a little bit more analysis and get into comparables, but it was late   and I was an hour + into the post already.  Might go ahead and do that still in the comments, but I thought I'd lay out the framework of the profile and anchor it to some context in terms of peer production around the league and his age group and let the discussion hopefully get to some conclusions.

[Mr. Brooks]

I’m not sure I really believe that steroids ultimately have much of a correlation to production other than in terms of injury recovery abilities which keeps you playing fresher on a more consistent basis. Time and time again we see guys who got suspended for roofs playing at the same level once they return.

Barry Bonds OPS'ing 1.462 at age 39 disagrees.

[nicksaviking]

I love what I'm seeing and I think he will continue being a very good player. That offseason extension is looking really, really good right now.

 

It's so unproportionate to his current numbers, I'm going to feel guilty if the Twins don't renegotiate in his favor if he turns out to be the player we are seeing now.

[Shaitan]

I'm impressed. He hit his "sophomore slump" in his rookie year and he hasn't looked back. To return last year after the suspension, with that chip on his shoulder and no Spring Training sold me.

[twins1095]

 

Barry Bonds OPS'ing 1.462 at age 39 disagrees.

 

Barry Bonds had an OPS between 1.000 and 1.140 in the 8 seasons before he was reported to begin steroid use.  

 

Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz, Jorge Polanco, Melky Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Robinson Cano, Starlin Marte, Ervin Santana, Jhonny Peralta, Dee Gordon, Freddy Galvis, Marlon Byrd 

 

That list is all examples of players that have or have been rumored to take steroids and have since come back and performed at comparable levels or higher to their performance during the time-period they were rumored to be using.

[Jham]

Barry Bonds had an OPS between 1.000 and 1.140 in the 8 seasons before he was reported to begin steroid use.

 

Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz, Jorge Polanco, Melky Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Robinson Cano, Starlin Marte, Ervin Santana, Jhonny Peralta, Dee Gordon, Freddy Galvis, Marlon Byrd

 

That list is all examples of players that have or have been rumored to take steroids and have since come back and performed at comparable levels or higher to their performance during the time-period they were rumored to be using.

Rumored?

[twins1095]

 

Rumored?

 

In most cases, confirmed. 

 

If I recall correctly.... technically Bonds and Ortiz have never been *confirmed* in an official sense of the world steroid users although both were steroid users to various extents.  That is why I used "have or have been rumored" just to cover that end.

[scottz]

Jorge Polanco is outstanding and I appreciate him here, publicly, in this thread.

[Mr. Brooks]

Barry Bonds had an OPS between 1.000 and 1.140 in the 8 seasons before he was reported to begin steroid use.

 

Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz, Jorge Polanco, Melky Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Robinson Cano, Starlin Marte, Ervin Santana, Jhonny Peralta, Dee Gordon, Freddy Galvis, Marlon Byrd

 

That list is all examples of players that have or have been rumored to take steroids and have since come back and performed at comparable levels or higher to their performance during the time-period they were rumored to be using.

You mean the 8 seasons that he was 26 to 33 years old? Then after 1998, he got even better with age.

And not just a little bit better, massively better. Like the difference between Drew Butera and 28 year old Barry Bonds better!

 

And I don't think your examples are accurate.

Take Ryan Braun. He's a .980 OPS guy, then gets popped, and comes back and is a roughly .805 OPS guy the rest of the way.

So, he came back and hit well, but not nearly the level before he was caught juicing.

 

Here are a couple excerpts regarding PED's and baseball:

 

From the NY Times:

"Scientists say they do not believe steroids improve hand-eye coordination, but because they agree the drugs help build strength, some extrapolate that steroids would also quicken bat speed."

 

From Scientific America:

"What is that drug and how does it work? It's an anabolic steroid, also called an androgen, and it is a synthetic form of the male sex hormone testosterone. It increases muscle mass and strength, and also enhances recovery time after a workout."

 

I assume scientists know more about this than either of us, and they seem to suggest that PED's can actually improve performance, not just aid in injury recovery. Which, I must say, makes sense, considering they are called performance enhancing drugs.

[ashbury]

Polanco's eyes when at bat. The eyes.

 

[jkcarew]

Although not living here when he played, have always seen some Rod Carew in Polanco.  Still possible they could have similar careers...although hopefully Polanco's will be played entirely at Target Field.

 

Just a shame that he didn't get a hit on his bunt last night, but the pitcher played that as well as you will ever see.  Have believed that like Carew, bunting should be a bigger part of Polanco's game.  Especially against those teams that use a shift against him.

Carew basically OPS+’d almost 145 over a decade...so unlikely that Polanco will be that...but you never know. Meanwhile, he can be more valuable defensively than Carew was by continuing to improve at SS...or even by being a very good 2B. I agree that his handsy swing...deliberately going the other way when pitchers are working him outside...particularly from the left side...is reminiscent of Carew. So refreshing, if for no other reason than breaking the monotony of watching all the factory replica pull and launch swings employed by seemingly everyone else

[Jham]

I've been a big fan of Polanco since he debuted suddenly ot of AA. He came up with no intimidation and swung hard. We were a pitch and swing to contact team at the time. He's already exceeded his perceived ceiling. PEDs aside, easy kid to cheer for.

[TheLeviathan]

This guy is ok I guess.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This guy is ok I guess.

Meh. He's not exactly A-Rod.

[Riverbrian]

.344 Batting Average

.649 Slugging

25 Years Old

 

I think we all forgot to talk about Polanco while we were talking about Buxton and Sano all those years. 

[ashbury]

.344 Batting Average

.649 Slugging

25 Years Old

 

I think we all forgot to talk about Polanco while we were talking about Buxton and Sano all those years. 

Not everyone. From 2015: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/159/entry-6383-30-twins-prospects-ill-be-watching-in-2015/

 

_{^{(Please ignore my laudatory comments for Travis Harrison and Max Murphy, and also the lack of daylight I saw between Jose Berrios and a few other propects. )}}

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not everyone. From 2015: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/159/entry-6383-30-twins-prospects-ill-be-watching-in-2015/

 

_{^{(Please ignore my laudatory comments for Travis Harrison and Max Murphy, and also the lack of daylight I saw between Jose Berrios and a few other propects. )}}

 

Who is Adam Brett Walker on a path to the Hall of FAme with these days?

[Riverbrian]

 

Not everyone. From 2015: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/159/entry-6383-30-twins-prospects-ill-be-watching-in-2015/

 

_{^{(Please ignore my laudatory comments for Travis Harrison and Max Murphy, and also the lack of daylight I saw between Jose Berrios and a few other propects. )}}

 

When I was five... My Dad got out of the car to open the garage door and he told me to not touch the car as he was getting out. 

 

I wasn't thinking about touching the car until he told me to not touch it. Anyway... I put the car in gear and it slowly drove through the garage door before my Dad could get back into the car to stop it. 

 

I mention that just so you know that I skipped over Polanco and went straight to Harrison and Murphy.