Expectations for Terry Ryan Moving Forward

[DaveW]

First, the numbers:

 

Terry Ryan has been GM for the Twins for 17 seasons.

Above .500 record: 7 of 17 seasons (41%)

Playoffs 5 of 17 seasons (29%)

Playoff series victories 1 of 17 seasons (6%)

World Series Appearances 0 of 17 seasons (0%)

World Series Victories 0 of 17 seasons (0%)

 

For the most part, Ryan has been the GM of the Twins for the better part of the last 20 years, without the 4 season break he would be by far the longest tenured general manager in the game. Only Brian Sabean, Billy Beane and Brian Cashman would come near him.

 

Sabean and Cashman have won a combined 8 world series titles. Billy Beane...well, we know the success he has had with the cash strapped A's and what he has done for baseball as a whole. Drombowski and Melvin, the two next longest tenured GM's were let go, Melvin never did much, but Drombowski had significantly more success than Ryan.

 

If it were up to me, Ryan wouldn't be back, the results frankly have not been there, 1 playoff series win in 17 years is pretty embarrassing, 10 of 17 seasons below .500 (without getting into the mess he left Bill Smith with) is unacceptable. 5 out of 17 division titles isn't bad, but in a 5 team division that is just barely above treading water IMO.

 

But since it isn't up to me, and the Pohlads have declared Ryan "GM for Life" it is 99% certain he will be back in 2016, and likely for a few years after that. Let's assume that Ryan is around the next 4 years, what should our minimum expectations be?

 

My thoughts:

 

-4 out of 4 years with winning records- There is absolutely no reason why a team with $125 million payroll capabilities and a farm system this stacked should even come close to having a losing season the next 4 years.

 

-2 out of the 4 years make the playoffs: 33% of teams in the AL now make the playoffs, no reason why the Twins can't be in it 2 of the next 4 at minimum.

 

-1 world series appearance of next 4 years: At the end of the day, if you don't win or even make the world series it is essentially a failed season. The Twins haven't been to a world series in 24 years, the wait needs to end. Ryan needs to make the right moves to set up this team not only to win in the regular season, but in the postseason as well. He should take notes from what the Rangers did at the deadline this year by getting Hamels, a guy that boosts their regular season team as well as a legit ACE for the playoffs.

 

-It's clear his recent approach to free agency, extensions and trades has been subpar for quite some time. (He was great earlier in his career, but it appears others have caught up and often have passed him by) Something needs to change, whether it's bringing in high upside guys instead of low risk/low reward guys, or pulling the trigger on bringing in a difference maker via trade while giving up some prospects, it's clear that the strategies of the past few years aren't working out well in these regards overall.

 

Anything less is just more mediocrity  from a GM who has a good reputation, but hasn't had nearly the success he should have to earned this many years heading up the Twins.

 

What are your expectations moving forward?

[gunnarthor]

The fact that you write this - "Billy Beane...well, we know the success he has had with the cash strapped A's and what he has done for baseball as a whole" - and then ignore that the same problems faced Ryan says pretty much everything you needed to on this.

 

 

I expect that this thread will turn into a massive knot of negativity.

 

[DaveW]

 

The fact that you write this - "Billy Beane...well, we know the success he has had with the cash strapped A's and what he has done for baseball as a whole" - and then ignore that the same problems faced Ryan says pretty much everything you needed to on this.

 

 

I expect that this thread will turn into a massive knot of negativity.

First off, saying it will turn into a massive knot of negativity does nothing to further along the discussion.

In re: to your comment.

Beane has a movie made about him for Pete's sake! Plus he revolutionized how the general manager job can be performed.

 

Additionally, the Twins haven't been cashed strapped for a long time now (even in 2003 the Twins were middle of the pack!). The A's have and continue to be cash strapped year in and year out.  Apples and Oranges comparison.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think Dave's expectations for the Twins are about right.  Long story short, I think they need to achieve the playoff success that eluded them from 2002-2010, and a 4 year window for that goal starting now sounds about right.

[TheLeviathan]

The window seems right and the time to show we're serious is this offseason.  We need at least one, if not several, aggressive moves this offseason.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm of the opinion that this should be Ryan's last season.  I think this is the last season that can take advantage of his strengths, but come 2017, they are going to need someone a bit more talented at aquiring needed major league pieces, making key deadline deals, negotiating contracts, etc.... things that Ryan hasn't really ever done well.   So expectations, I'd probably see if he's ammenable to retiring this offseason and bring his replacement in house to spend a year in the org prior to taking over.  I'd look long and hard at a few of the exects in the Tampa Bay organization or some of Theo's guys in Chicago. 

 

I do think that Ryan and Beane are largely cut from the same cloth in terms of talent (though Beane is without question more aggressive and has had both success and failure being aggressive).  Both have done a pretty good job finding inefficiencies in the market and capitalizing on them.  Just because Beane has a book and a movie doesn't somehow make him better.  If anything, he stacks up worse when you look at Bean and Ryan strictly by the numbers. 

[DaveW]

The window seems right and the time to show we're serious is this offseason. We need at least one, if not several, aggressive moves this offseason.

agreed, you thinking big FA splash or big trade?

[Rosterman]

Only one general manager can win a World Series each year. Look how long some teams have gone without!

 

I wonder if the Twins will ever go outside of the organization for a general manager, or is there a fear that the entire organization would then be broken apart, from the coaching staff to the scouting staff to the front office as a whole. If you look at the Twins bios, everyone has been with the team for a longtime, moving around into different jobs, and there IS a "Way" in the whole system. Maybe too comfortable of a "Way", and that should be criticized (if needed) or addressed than jsut individual people and their jobs.

 

Yes, if you fail utterly, as Gardy did the last four years on the field (albeit he wasn't given the best talent all the time) you are fired. But a new direction wasn't totally taken.

 

Sadly, the main job of an organization is to field a team that will put butts in the seats and sell concessions and such. If that happens, you suddenly have money to spend on product. Then you have to make product and brand decisions to create even more money, which can point you towards a winning way. But sometimes even throwing money at a problem doesn't help.

 

In 2015 we had three expensive starting pitchers that combined for 20 victories. We had an aging outfielder who sparked some season ticket sales and did hit 20+ homers (although would Arcia have done the same) in the homer department if given the full chance.

 

We had the face of the franchise dwindle to a below aveage first baseman instead of an average catcher.

 

But the team stayed in the hunt, played competitive and entertaining baseball, and despite the fact that ONLY 24,000 folks showed up for the last game on a beautiful day to end the season, brought in enough crowds that the front office has to be giddy with the sales dollars for the season and the idea that they can actually sell season tickets under the slogan of what the future will bring next season.

 

Ryan is General Mager. He has a staff peforming multiple duties. He has a scouting department that is accountable for draftees and how they progress in the system. There is a budget, and the Twins did spend their budget. Did WE want different players, of course. But the players have to want to come here for the money offered, ant that always doesn't work out. Players here have to want to stay for the money offered compared to elsewhere, as well as what other teams bring to the table. 

 

General Manager is a hard job and Ryan, like Beane, has has to deal with a front office on the cheap more times than not. He has made some "Blly Beane" moves in his time, but lacks the flair for drama of Beane in moving players just because (sometimes Ryan and Co. might hold onto guys too long).

 

That said, who would the Twins bring into the General Manager fold from outside, if possible? I'm not overjoyed with in-house possibilities, but in the scheme of things and the "Twins Way" they would suffice. Good solid baseball is still good solid baseball, you can ask for more, but it only happens once the game starts and the on-field activities happen, in which you have little or no control of the outcome. Someone has to win, someone hasto lose.

 

[howieramone2]

 

I'm of the opinion that this should be Ryan's last season.  I think this is the last season that can take advantage of his strengths, but come 2017, they are going to need someone a bit more talented at aquiring needed major league pieces, making key deadline deals, negotiating contracts, etc.... things that Ryan hasn't really ever done well.   So expectations, I'd probably see if he's ammenable to retiring this offseason and bring his replacement in house to spend a year in the org prior to taking over.  I'd look long and hard at a few of the exects in the Tampa Bay organization or some of Theo's guys in Chicago. 

 

I do think that Ryan and Beane are largely cut from the same cloth in terms of talent (though Beane is without question more aggressive and has had both success and failure being aggressive).  Both have done a pretty good job finding inefficiencies in the market and capitalizing on them.  Just because Beane has a book and a movie doesn't somehow make him better.  If anything, he stacks up worse when you look at Bean and Ryan strictly by the numbers. 

King Theo is much more Ryanlike than Brad Pitt IMHO.

[DaveW]

I'm of the opinion that this should be Ryan's last season. I think this is the last season that can take advantage of his strengths, but come 2017, they are going to need someone a bit more talented at aquiring needed major league pieces, making key deadline deals, negotiating contracts, etc.... things that Ryan hasn't really ever done well. So expectations, I'd probably see if he's ammenable to retiring this offseason and bring his replacement in house to spend a year in the org prior to taking over. I'd look long and hard at a few of the exects in the Tampa Bay organization or some of Theo's guys in Chicago.

 

I do think that Ryan and Beane are largely cut from the same cloth in terms of talent (though Beane is without question more aggressive and has had both success and failure being aggressive). Both have done a pretty good job finding inefficiencies in the market and capitalizing on them. Just because Beane has a book and a movie doesn't somehow make him better. If anything, he stacks up worse when you look at Bean and Ryan strictly by the numbers.

One could argue that it could be time for a change in Oakland as well, that Donaldson trade is looking especially bad now.

 

As far as beane having a worse track record, they play in a better overall division year in year out and the payroll limitations certainly exist (the A's could never afford to keep a joe Mauer type etc)

 

Good points on Ryan having one last year and finding a successor I would be for this certainly

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

One could argue that it could be time for a change in Oakland as well, that Donaldson trade is looking especially bad now.

As far as beane having a worse track record, they play in a better overall division year in year out and the payroll limitations certainly exist (the A's could never afford to keep a joe Mauer type etc)

Good points on Ryan having one last year and finding a successor I would be for this certainly

 

Agreed on Beane, though I think there's a cult following throughout the baseball community that be very vocally against such an eggregious suggestion

 

I really think finding a successor makes the most sense for Ryan.  I'd add the Cardinals organization to that list as well.  The Twins do a lot of things well.  They need someone who can come in somewhat objectively and with surgical precision remove the things that aren't done well.

[TheLeviathan]

 

agreed, you thinking big FA splash or big trade?

 

Given we are talking about Terry Ryan...I'll take it in any form we can get it.

[sane]

 

First off, ....

Beane has a movie made about him for Pete's sake!

So have Timmy Lupus (Bad News Bears!); Ricky Vaughn (Wild Thing!); Ebbie LaLoosh (Bull Durham!) AND "Ed, The Baseball Playing Chimp"!

[DaveW]

Agreed on Beane, though I think there's a cult following throughout the baseball community that be very vocally against such an eggregious suggestion

 

I really think finding a successor makes the most sense for Ryan. I'd add the Cardinals organization to that list as well. The Twins do a lot of things well. They need someone who can come in somewhat objectively and with surgical precision remove the things that aren't done well.

Ultimately the Pohlads won't be the ones to pull the trigger on such "change" it's going to have to come from Ryan, I just worry his "successor" would goto Antony since he has "earned it" in his time with the Twins. I'm not thrilled about that prospect to be honest.

[nicksaviking]

 

One could argue that it could be time for a change in Oakland as well, that Donaldson trade is looking especially bad now.
 

 

Done.  Beane was just promoted to Executive VP of baseball operations and David Forst is the new GM.

 

Frankly Executive VP seems a little light of a title for someone of Beane's stature, though I doubt few in Twins territory would have a problem if Ryan got a similar promotion, or even replaced St. Peter.

 

Though I'm not a fan of promoting a new GM from within, which would almost surely happen under this scenario.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I kind of wonder if Krivisky was brought on with that in mind. 

[DaveW]

Done. Beane was just promoted to Executive VP of baseball operations and David Forst is the new GM.

 

Frankly Executive VP seems a little light of a title for someone of Beane's stature, though I doubt few in Twins territory would have a problem if Ryan got a similar promotion, or even replaced St. Peter.

 

Though I'm not a fan of promoting a new GM from within, which would almost surely happen under this scenario.

Lol nice timing

[sane]

 

So have Timmy Lupus (Bad News Bears!); Ricky Vaughn (Wild Thing!); Ebbie LaLoosh (Bull Durham!) AND "Ed, The Baseball Playing Chimp"!

Who are all rumored to be on Terry Ryan's acquisition wish list, by-the-way.

[Tecmo]

I kind of anticipate Ryan will retire now. I don't think he ever intended to return long term and he has the franchise in a perfect position to hand it off now that it's heading in the right direction.

[Vanimal46]

I agree with your 4 year expectations Dave. Now that they're at this level, anything below .500 without significant injuries on the roster should be enough cause to fire TR.

 

This offseason is crucial to meet the higher expectations. I believe there needs to be at least 1 aggressive move made to acquire a top end solution at P or in the field. I just can't see how a team of above average players can replicate the same luck and timely hitting we saw this season.

 

2016 very well could (and should) be the last hurrah for TR if the team doesn't take the next step into the playoffs. Whoever the eventual replacement is, they should absolutely look outside of the organization to get a fresh set of eyes on the situation.

[Winston Smith]

I think whenever Ryan retires again things will change very little. They will likely promote Antony and the rest of the staff will stay the same.

 

By the way the Twins have only 4 playoff appearances with TR the GM.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Only one general manager can win a World Series each year. Look how long some teams have gone without!

True, but Dave only calls for a World Series appearance, not necessarily a win.  So that's two GMs a year.  

 

Looked at another way, every year there are 7 postseason series victories (not counting the wild card game).  21 seasons since TR took the helm, so 147 postseason series victories, or an average of 4.9 per franchise.  TR has one in that time.  8 franchises have zero or one playoff series win (again not counting the wild card game) since they expanded in 1995.  Jays, Cubs, and/or Pirates have a chance to leave that group this year, but otherwise it's a group that generally (and oftentimes rightfully) gets picked on a lot:

 

CHC
CIN
MIL
MIN
OAK
PIT
TOR
WSN

 

I think it's fair to ask the Twins to leave this group within the next 4 years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This offseason is crucial to meet the higher expectations. I believe there needs to be at least 1 aggressive move made to acquire a top end solution at P or in the field. I just can't see how a team of above average players can replicate the same luck and timely hitting we saw this season.

I think the top end solution can come internally (and that's the likely route for the Twins to attempt).  But yeah, TR's future/legacy probably depends a lot on that bet.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I agree with your 4 year expectations Dave. Now that they're at this level, anything below .500 without significant injuries on the roster should be enough cause to fire TR.

This offseason is crucial to meet the higher expectations. I believe there needs to be at least 1 aggressive move made to acquire a top end solution at P or in the field. I just can't see how a team of above average players can replicate the same luck and timely hitting we saw this season.

2016 very well could (and should) be the last hurrah for TR if the team doesn't take the next step into the playoffs. Whoever the eventual replacement is, they should absolutely look outside of the organization to get a fresh set of eyes on the situation.

 

Not quite sure we can reasonably expect another SP at this point, not without eating a lot of money (and I don't think Terry Ryan could do this if he wanted to), but I'll be very disappointed if there isn't outside help for the pen brought in this offseason.  I'd like a bullpen ace or two to pair with Perkins.  I don't care if it's a trade or FA. 

[Vanimal46]

Not quite sure we can reasonably expect another SP at this point, not without eating a lot of money (and I don't think Terry Ryan could do this if he wanted to), but I'll be very disappointed if there isn't outside help for the pen brought in this offseason. I'd like a bullpen ace or two to pair with Perkins. I don't care if it's a trade or FA.

That's true. Hope we see September Santana over August Santana, and Hughes needs an even year bounce back.

 

I certainly agree that there needs to be ace bullpen types added to the team. I was also thinking big and throw our hat in the ring for the Jason Heyward sweepstakes this offseason. We could use a big time bat in the middle of the order to surround Sano, Mauer, and Dozier.

[DaveW]

 

I think whenever Ryan retires again things will change very little. They will likely promote Antony and the rest of the staff will stay the same.

By the way the Twins have only 4 playoff appearances with TR the GM.

That's right! Will edit to fix.

[Kwak]

Expectations?  Whose expectations? TD posters, average fans, or the Pohlads?  I don't believe for a moment that the expectations of the Pohlads is to build a WS champion--it is to build a dividend-paying machine to provide funds for investment elsewhere as well as income for the trustees. Fans?  I've read too many posts stating how happy they are that the team had a "winning season" to be convinced that they expect a WS winner (though of course they would enjoy one!).  It is only some posters  that seem to believe that management's responsibility is to build a consistent winner that ultimately results in a WS championship.  I expect to see a payroll cut--though I'm not requesting a cut!

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I am a big TR fan, but I agree that we are moving into a different set of work for him as the team enters relevancy.   No longer will the demands of the job play to his strengths of building within and patience. 

 

He will now need to focus on how to parlay depth at specific positions (3B and OF) into new talent that adds to the Major League roster.   He does have a track record of making strong trades (Nathan, Liriano for Pierzynski ), but also stepped down at a similar point several years ago.

 

The question is whether he will be able to add talent from free agency and trades to make this team a true World Series contender, rather than a one and done playoff franchise.  

 

 

 

[SF Twins Fan]

I agree for the most part with the 4 years of expectations. I don't expect TR to stay for the 4 years as it sounds like he's getting ready to hand the team off. He'll be here next season but I'd expect him to retire or do more scouting starting in 2017.  

[Blackjack]

 

The fact that you write this - "Billy Beane...well, we know the success he has had with the cash strapped A's and what he has done for baseball as a whole" - and then ignore that the same problems faced Ryan says pretty much everything you needed to on this.

 

 

I expect that this thread will turn into a massive knot of negativity.

 

After I read the first post I clicked away, thinking the same thing - but then I came back just to see how the post evolves.  We will see, and I will give my opinion at the end.