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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    This is a more complete list from Fangraphs. Includes the Senators. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&rost=0&players=0&team=8&pos=cf
  2. Eris
    I thought strikeouts didn’t matter. Hmm! I think over the course of the season that is probably true but for individual game situations it likely is not true. We essentially have the same team as last year +/- a few players. Why are we expecting a different outcome. Wallner’s Ks are bad but so were Gallo’s.
  3. Eris
    Guardians had 6 hitters with an OPS above 700. The Twins in contrast had 2 hitters above that OPS. Not going to win many games like that.
  4. Eris
    The team has continued last year’s ineptitude with RISP primarily because they emphasize power over contact. (Imagine Steve Kwan on this team) Interesting that they have chosen pinch hit for Martin with RISP and needing a run or two. Martin is the one player on the team who is a contact hitter. Currently only Kirilloff and Correa are producing at or above expectations. The team won’t win many games with only two offensive contributors. I expect Julien and Jeffers to eventually come around. Castro and Kepler had near career years last year and Wallner has struggled since spring training. It might be a long season for the Twins faithful.
  5. Eris
    Ben Revere had a 0.058 ISO and played 7 years with a career fWAR of 7.5. Denard Span had a career ISO of 0.117, played 10 years with a career fWAR of 27.5. if Austin Martin has a career similar to Denard Span, I think that would be considered a success.
  6. Eris
    Not an expert. My daughter was being recruited for college volleyball when she tore her ACL. She had the BEAR procedure almost a year ago. There is significant amounts quad muscle atrophy from ACL surgery. There is still a noticeable difference in muscle size and also strength (about 90% of the contralateral leg). My daughter hits the gym almost every day. While I expect Lewis to be in top shape, it would not surprise me if there were measurable weaknesses in his twice surgically repaired knee/leg.
  7. Eris
    Toronto has been in the playoffs 5 of the last 10 years. The best team doesn’t always win, e.g., look at the Dodgers over the last 10 years. Winning a playoff series is a combination of skill, luck, can a team set their rotation, and a player or two getting hot at the right moment. Often a game and series win come down to one play made or not made. A bad pitch or a strike 3 call a pitch just off the plate. As mentioned in the article the Blue Jays have a number of FA signings or extensions that may not age well. Berrios has had 1 good year (3 fWAR) and one not so good year (1 fWAR). Springer has only lived up to his contract 1 of the 3 years. I think the Twins have been fortunate to limit bad multi-year contracts. They were fortunate to be able to off load Donaldson’s contract.
  8. Eris
    Watching a game at Wrigley is truly a unique experience. I would encourage everyone who has a chance to go. Shouting from the rooftops. Since they built the large screen in right field maybe about 8 years ago, it is no longer possible to watch the game from the rooftop bar across the street. So there is no longer any shouting from those rooftops during the games.
  9. Eris
    But he was playing hurt. It is not reasonable to assess his capabilities under those circumstances. More reasonable we could ask why was he playing when the team the team knew he would need surgery. His injury history is an important consideration. If you can’t pencil someone in the lineup 130 - 140 games a year his value goes down. A healthy Kirilloff is likely in the top 3 of Twins hitters ( after Lewis and Julien).
  10. Eris
    If I am remembering correctly from past threads the best indicator of future TJ surgery was velocity in high school. With travel teams and clinics, many kids who are drafted play baseball at least 9 months a year. Also in my area (NJ) it is almost impossible to pitch on a high school team without having a private pitching coach by the time you are in 8th grade. What do most of them teach—mechanics to deliver max velocity. Tom Glavine gave an interview about this many years ago indicating that he didn’t have a pitching coach until he was in the Braves organization.
  11. Eris
    One of the challenges with managing a roster with Byron Buxton. You get greatest CF in baseball —who is truly a game changing talent. On the other hand you are holding breath every play hoping he can play more than half the season. Therefore a need to build a roster with 2 very capable CF (both O and D). Someone who mostly fill that role wants to be paid like a starter (see M Taylor) I think both Castro and Martin can fill that role. I have so far been unimpressed with Margot.
  12. Eris
    I was struck by the absence of Joey Gallo at the top of the strikeout list. If you include everyone else on the had he qualified criteria (Wallner had 254 PA) Wallner would be 28th. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=250&sortcol=9&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
  13. Eris
    I think this is a correct assessment on the 3B depth chart also the possibility that Correa moves off SS towards the end of his contract. in addition, Miranda was/is a poor defender at 3B.
  14. Eris
    While Nick Punto was during a couple of seasons the worst offensive player in the MLB, it is also worth remembering that he contributed 15 fWAR over his 13 year career—almost all from defensive value. By comparison, Eddie Rosario has 13.4 fWAR at this point in his 10 seasons. Also Punto has a WS ring with the Cardinals in 2011. Nick Ahmed is a good comparison to Punto as is Greg Gagne who was slightly better offensively. Career WRC+ for all three players are 73, 77 and 83 respectively. (Data from Fangraphs)
  15. Eris
    Which Margot are we getting, the 2021 version with 13 DRS or the 2023 version with below average defense and below average offensive. If it is the 2023 version, then no thank you.
  16. Eris
    “Having one of the most well-rounded 26-man rosters “ Struggling to agree with that—in part because the entire infield defense (excluding C) was in the bottom half of MLB last year. Some of this can be rationalized by injuries (Correa and Kirilloff) and by inexperience (Lewis at 3B). Also the outfield D being above average depends almost entirely on Buxton. Kepler’s defense has slipped in recent years.
  17. Eris
    “Strong fielding has been a core component of the Minnesota Twins franchise since the franchise formerly known as the Washington Senators arrived in the Twin Cities.” Historically this may have been true. Certainly when Tom Kelly was manager. It has been quite awhile since the Twins Way was expected from players who rose through the system. Seems that in recent years we are more interested in bombas than solid defense.
  18. Eris
    How does draft, international signings and minor league salaries factor into this. Spending money is not the only consideration. The money needs to be spent wisely. Look at last year, $70 million was tied up in 4 players who combined to produce slightly more than 4 WAR.
  19. Eris
    Found this article from 2019 about Bauer to be interesting. https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/02/19/trevor-bauer-cleveland-Guardians-training-tools-twitter-controversy-cy-young#gid=ci0254ea9900002511&pid=trevor-bauer-pitching-overhead-tall2jpg
  20. Eris
    With regards to Bellinger, do we know that Boras is the reason he is unsigned. It is possible that clubs offered a 2-3 year contract and Bellinger regected these. Similar with Taylor, do we know he hasn’t received an offer. Obviously neither Taylor or Bellinger received an offer to their liking.
  21. Eris
    I thought that a team could release a player in/after spring training (don’t know the details) if they lost arbitration with out owing them the guaranteed portion of their salary. Not sure if this applies if the team wins arbitration. Am not 100% sure that what I have written is correct.
  22. Eris
    The culture/values of an organization/clubhouse is probably as important to success as some physical skills.
  23. Eris
    Is Byron Buxton’s $9.5 million in incentives included in the Twins payroll figures.
  24. Eris
    The challenge is that other teams are are also looking for starting pitching. The consequences being that even average pitching has become very expensive.
  25. Eris
    Looking back at the 2017 draft, after Lewis, 4 pitchers were selected. Hunter Greene had TJ and is still trying to establish himself. MacKenzie Gore has had control issues but seems to be getting things together after being traded to Washington. Kyle Wright injured his shoulder and Brendan McKay injured his elbow. Wright and McKay were college pitchers and likely will not have successful MLB careers. SSS, but this a 50% flameout because of injuries.
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