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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    Kepler is the more consistent player. Excluding 2020, Kepler has never had a year <2 fWAR. Of course Kepler hasn’t had a a 7 WAR season either. Bellinger has a lot more upside than Kepler but he may have more downside which is why it is difficult to assess Bellinger’s long term contract value. If the Twins could sign Bellinger to an incentive contract similar to Buxton’s 15 million base I think this would be a good move for the Twins. I doubt that this will happen. Also agree with many of the TD contributors that pitching is more important. From Fangraphs, Bellinger has had 4 years >3.5 WAR and 3 years < 2 WAR.
  2. Eris
    I don’t something here. The Twins original contract with Fox Sports (which Bally inherited/bought when Fox Sports sold the rights to Sinclair) ended at the end of 2023. The Twins could sell their broadcast rights to entity they can reach an agreement with). Why are they being forced to Bally (or when was the contract extended). What am I missing. With regards to cost to the users, I think streaming will be more expensive than cable, as the cost for streaming will be paid directly by the user. With cable, the services were bundled which meant that individual users did not pay the true cost of a service. Streaming services could bundle as well to spread costs but then eventually they will run in to the same dynamic as cable companies—the cost of bundled services will exceed what average user is willing to pay and they stop subscribing to the services.
  3. Eris
    A stalled market is what happens when the price of obtaining pitching becomes insanely expensive. At some point teams can’t justify the cost either in terms of $$ or trade capital.
  4. Eris
    I could get behind signing Bellinger to a 1 year deal. Certainly the upside is a lot more than Joey Gallo. I agree with @Rik19753that pitching is more needed. Also someone who has had 1 good year in the last 4 is not going to get a long term deal at $25m/year. During 2020-2022 Bellinger put up 2.2 WAR. He was hurt in 2021 but played 144 games in 2022. To give you an idea of just how bad of a performance those numbers represent, Willi Castro put up 1.8 WAR over the same period before being released by one of the worst teams in the league.
  5. Eris
    I think in order for the Twins to reasonably successful long term they need to be more like the Rays and less like the big market teams. The Twins have more than a third of the payroll in Correa and Buxton. Signing another player to a 20-25+ million long term contract means they lose payroll flexibility for years to come. Money that will potentially be needed to pay some of the rising stars.
  6. Eris
    I think broadcasters were the drivers of the bundled cable packages which has driven the cost of premium packages mostly around sports. The goal was to socialize the cost of sports programming over as large of a cable population as possible. Customers who wanted to watch the Twins also needed to pay for ESPN, Fox Sports, etc. This led to exorbitant $100+/month cable bills which ushered in the current era of cable cutting. I believe the capability has existed for local cable companies to “stream” the Twins to only the customers who wanted this. I don’t know of cable markets where that has happened. In New York some years ago, the Yankee network was very opposed to this idea when our local cable company offered that as a solution to a cost dispute.
  7. Eris
    I am somewhat confused by the whole process. According to the article, Amazon’s original agreement with Diamond was for streaming 11 teams. But MLB mixed that. Presumably this is because MLB thinks they can make more money streaming the other 6. Doesn’t then Amazon’s streaming service compete with MLBs At Bat. I live in NJ and being able to watch the Twins on Amazon reduces my willingness to pay for At Bat (unless Amazon’s streaming rights are restricted to a specific geographic region)
  8. Eris
    https://nypost.com/2024/01/17/business/amazon-poised-to-save-bankrupt-diamond-sports-with-100m-deal-to-stream-five-mlb-teams-sources/ works out to 20 million per team.
  9. Eris
    https://nypost.com/2024/01/17/business/amazon-poised-to-save-bankrupt-diamond-sports-with-100m-deal-to-stream-five-mlb-teams-sources/ this works out to 20 million per team.
  10. Eris
    How Ryan Jeffers becomes a top 10 ranked catcher is if the 2023 version of Jeffers shows up for the next 4 or 5 years. If the 2021 and 2022 version appears he is not a top 10 catcher.
  11. Eris
    Is Rodriguez a legit MLB CF. Who would be a good comparison for his defensive capabilities. Last I looked, the Twins have major uncertainties in CF, and it would be not wise to trade someone who could man CF for years. If he profiles as a corner outfielder than it is a different discussion.
  12. Eris
    I thought is was reported on TD last year that before the trade the Twins had approached Arraez about an extension and he had declined. I am not sure if this was true. If so, what has changed. As much as a love watching Arraez bat, he doesn’t really have a defensive spot with the Twins. He could be a full time DH. I guess that would work. Last year Buxton was close to a full time DH when he can’t play in the field. From my perspective, I would not reverse the previous trade by trading Lopez back to the Marlins for Arraez. Several reasons. The Twins need pitching. Lopez has signed and extension, and we have plenty of players to play 2B. Also, Polanco may be an overall better player (when healthy) than Arraez.
  13. Eris
    I would have included Ivan Rodriguez in the comparison as his career overlap with Mauer’s by 8 years.
  14. Eris
    From the article on Fangraphs ZiPS does not think Minnesota has a lot in the way of offensive reinforcements should injuries or a rash of disappointments hit the offense, as happened in 2021 and 2022. Outside of Carlos Correa’s frustrating down season, not a lot actually went wrong for the Twins last year, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/
  15. Eris
    Hasn’t Larnach suffered core muscle strain/injuries the past 2 years including surgery in 2022. It is difficult to assess a player’s potential when they are hurt. (In some cases being consistently hurt becomes the longer term prognosis)
  16. Eris
    The capabilities of a prospect are not really understood until they arrive in big leagues and their weakness is found. Can they overcome their weaknesses. Byron Buxton was MLBs top prospect in 2014 and 2015. Injuries aside, he still can’t hit a curveball. It is much easier to work out a fair trade with Arraez (vs Brooks Lee or Jenkins) because everyone knew exactly what his MLB capabilities were.
  17. Eris
    Clearly a strategy of drafting hitting. Which is okay and justified based on batters being more projectable than pitching and also the injury risk. But then to be successful as a team pitchers selected in later rounds need to developed into front line starters or teams have to be able/willing to trade hitting for pitching. Trading pitching for pitching means eventually running out of future pitching. The Jay pick had a strategy in that the Twins, needing pitching, drafted the top college relief pitcher and attempted to convert him to a starter. This was doomed when Jay suffered a mostly career ending shoulder injury.
  18. Eris
    The hope of a better future is part of the joy of being a baseball fan. I do understand what you are saying though. We have Walker Jenkins inked in as being more valuable then Byron Buxton, but Buxton (or pick some other player such as Correa, Lopez or Julien) is much more likely to lead our Twins to the World Series this year.
  19. Eris
    That is a lot of $$ for someone who has not been healthy (with shoulder issues) in two years.
  20. Eris
    Do we actually know why Kepler has refused to play CF. He has had hamstring issues the past couple of years he might be an increased injury risk. The other possibility is quality of play at each position where he is much better in RF.
  21. Eris
    The Twins are in a difficult situation in CF. It is hard to justify paying for another full time CF when you have Buxton.
  22. Eris
    I would take a flier on Frankie Montas, but not at $10-14 million. That seems too high a risk for someone with shoulder injuries 2 seasons in a row. It would need to be an incentive based contract. An offer would need to be attractive enough at the high end that he would take a lower base. Something like 5 million base, bonus dollars for innings and bonus dollars for position in Cy Young. Such that if he has a very strong year he would make 20 - 25 million. Frankie Montas had been on the DL earlier in the year of the trade with shoulder inflammation. I think his trade to the Yankees was similar to the Tyler Mahle trade. Both had been on the DL earlier, the acquiring team’s desperate for pitching before the playoffs made the trade and they lost big. The Yankees made out worse as they also traded Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals to make room in the rotation and Montgomery pitched very well after leaving NY.
  23. Eris
    Multiple items can be true at the same time. As a % of revenue players don’t get enough from the value they produce. Some owners game the revenue sharing system by not giving more to players salaries as the concept was intended. Elite free agents probably get paid too much. Pre-arbitration players don’t get paid enough. And minor leagues players get screwed. I saw in the news about a week ago that the top 100 pre-arbitration players shared a bonus pool of $50 million (can’t find this number to confirm). I think this is a good idea, but the bonus pool $$ should be 10x larger. The average career of an MLB player is 5.6 years. The median is lower. That is, more than half of the players don’t make it to free agency in a position to collect on their years of effort to the game. Some of this is due to skills some is due to injuries. This number also doesn’t include the many minor league players who never make it. https://www.listfoundation.org/the-average-career-length-of-professional-athletes-in-north-americas-major-sports-leagues
  24. Eris
    Success would be if the team does not need to plan in advance for his expected absence from CF. Has the cause of Buxton’s knee issues been made public.
  25. Eris
    The MLBPA has always been about getting the most money for the best players in free agency —irrespective of the consequences for the average player. Remember it was the MLBPA who opposed steroid testing. All teams, including the Dodgers, have a limited amount of money to spend. When free agents get ginormous contracts it reduces the $$ pool for the average player. What will eventually happen (maybe we are here already) is there will be a two tiered salary structure. Lots of $$ for the very best free agents and league minimum for most of the other players. Also, these long term deals will eventually impact what future players get paid. IMO, the best salary structure for the long term interests of the game would be base salary + real performance bonuses (performance bonuses based on production are currently prohibited by the CBA). This approach has some issues such as a team would enter a season with an unknown payroll. Also, how is performance value measured (WAR or some other metric) does not capture a players true value. However, the current system is only functional because it takes advantage of young “cost controlled” players (and minor league players) by paying them only a fraction of their true value to the team/league. It also will impact the careers of average middle aged players as there will be less opportunities for them as they can be most easily replaced by young players making significantly less than an average veteran.
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