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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    It is not just the strike outs, although that is the end result, many of the strike outs result from poor at bats, like swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone.
  2. Eris
    I have looked up the K% of players who were on different teams last year. Taylor, Farmer, Castro, Vasquez all have K% about 10% higher than last year. Solano, is 3% higher and Gallo is about 2% lower. I don’t think these differences happened by coincidence. Add to this that several ex-Twins are doing really well.
  3. Eris
    @Mark Git is a good question, I think it is a rare attribute to have both elite speed and a good hit tool (and the ability to run efficient routes). In the Twins organization Buxton, Castro, Gordon, Taylor and Lewis have elite speed. Of these only Lewis might have an above average hit tool.
  4. Eris
    I thought for a moment that you were describing the current Twins roster.
  5. Eris
    With the exceptions that Buxton has 5 more RBIs and more power and has not played an inning in the OF, there is little to differentiate M. Taylor from B. Buxton. The title is incorrect, it should read “Byron Buxton has become the insurance policy that M. Taylor needs”
  6. Eris
    The Twins had one player in their lineup with an OPS over 0.800. The Rays had six. It doesn’t seem like a competition where a chance at an equal outcome is expected.
  7. Eris
    @rv78I did not make my comments clear enough. I think acquiring pitchers with multiple years of control at the trade deadline is higher risk strategy and the Yankees acquisition of Montas is another example of risks associated with this strategy. Like the Twins they hurt their playoff prospects last year and this year by making a trade that didn’t work out.
  8. Eris
    There are multiple avenues to do trades. Acquiring expiring contracts at the deadline vs acquiring pitchers that are not on expiring contracts and therefore pay a higher price in terms of prospects. If the FO makes a good trade the team is helped for the next seasons and a bad trade is more painful. Trading for pitchers on expiring contracts would be a lower risk strategy. The Twins were not the only team that made deadline acquisitions for pitchers that didn’t work out. The Yankees trade for Frankie Montas and subsequent unloading of Jordan Montgomery were also trades that did not work out for the Yankees.
  9. Eris
    It wasn’t just the trade deadline that was problematic for the FO. The trade for Paddock and Pagán is was necessitated the trade deadline deals. The Twins were buyers when they should have been sellers. Finishing 14 games behind the Guardians and 8 games out of the wild card was not a little miss by the FO.
  10. Eris
    I tend to agree with you. Correa re-aggravated his foot injury from the previous week and maybe being placed on the IL would be helpful.
  11. Eris
    I am quite dissatisfied about the games being on Apple TV. I have a subscription to MLB and this just devalues what I have paid for—not to mention the emotional disappointment of sitting down on the couch, beer in hand, to watch the Twins and discover you can’t (at least not without paying more money). Oh wait, the Reds are tied in the 9th, let me watch that. Sorry that game is on Apple TV as well.
  12. Eris
    Fangraphs with an article on Spencer Steer. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cincinnatis-spencer-steer-believes-in-contact-and-backspinning-line-drives/
  13. Eris
    This has a chance to go down as the worst trade in franchise history which was the Delmon Young for Bartlett and Garza, which was about -20 war. Steer and CES should be able to put up 10 WAR or so each. I am glad for Steer that he is making the most of his opportunity. What makes the trade a failure is the Mahle did not contribute down the stretch last year. https://puckettspond.com/2020/06/01/minnesota-twins-ranking-10-worst-trades/
  14. Eris
    Dugas et al.44 reviewed baseball players who had undergone surgical ACL reconstruction across all levels of competitive play, finding a majority of ACL tears to occur during fielding (68%), or base running (29%), with outfielders at the greatest positional risk. From. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20503121221076369#:~:text=Dugas et al.&text=reviewed baseball players who had,at the greatest positional risk. Several notes study mentions that there are a limited number of ACL tears in baseball, which may have an affect on data analysis. Players with ACL reconstruction play on average 20% less than non injured equivalent Also, the FDA approved in 2021 a new procedure for ACL repair. Google “BEAR ACL repair” and you will plenty of information.
  15. Eris
    The problem for the Twins becomes one of value. Buxton accumulated 4 fWAR last year. Prorated to 162 games, at his current rate, Buxton will not match last years WAR (because DH is assigned a negative defensive value). I don’t really understand the logic behind not having Buxton in CF. First, he injured his knee sliding into second last year. Second, Buxton is a difference maker playing CF. The best solution would seem to be to train Buxton not to crash into outfield walls with his team up by 8 runs.
  16. Eris
    It is hard for me to remember a team which offensively was this disappointing. Maybe because I expected the Twins to be good while they just seem to be playing poorly not withstanding the fact that they are in first place. There are a number of factors that drive my disappointment. The team leaders, Buxton on Correa are doing poorly. Several players who were expected to have good seasons have either bombed (Miranda) or are in the IL (Larnach, Gordon, Mahle ). Then there is the situational components such failure to score runs with the bases loaded. Watching hitter after hitter K in critical at bats, and BS from the bullpen. Add also to this add to this that several ex-Twins who were either traded, given away, or left unprotected are having very good years and it is really easy to be negative on the team. Maybe Kirilloff, Lewis and getting Polanco back will help turn things around.
  17. Eris
    I am seldom bothered by roster moves. I find sending Wallner down to somewhat troubling. At a time when the Twins are reaching new lows in offensive ineptitude and leading the league in SO, they send down the one batter who has out performed every one else on the team since recalled on May 23. Since then, Wallner has had 0 SO, walked 2 times, has a WRC+ of 371, OPS OF 1.714, WPA+ = .67, WPA- = 0.04. (Data is from Fangraphs) While I don’t expect Wallner to maintain this pace, it would have been relatively easy to find roster space for Wallner for the Houston series. For example put Gallo on the IL because of his leg injury. Taylor may also benefit from being on the IL because of his back. With Kepler coming back, Wallner could DH the Houston series while giving Buxton sometime to clear his head.
  18. Eris
    Not liking the Wallner transaction. He is one of the few players who stepped upto the plate against the Blue Jays and actually did the job.
  19. Eris
    WSJ (May 27-28)has a back page story on how the Orioles fixed Yennier Cano. Short summary is they identified mechanical flaws in his delivery and have improved his % strikes. First pitch strike % in 2022 was 58%, it is now 68%. The mechanical flaws cited in the article are: his front shoulder would fly open, tinkered with grips and threw from multiple arm slots. This should be alarming for Twins fans. Cano goes Orioles and significantly improves. Lopez to the Twins with massive regression and we have not seen the center piece of the trade pitching in the majors yet.
  20. Eris
    I think, unfortunately, with the Bomba Squad in 2019, the Twins emphasized home runs and power and have put together a team that as a result are among the leaders in % of runs scored via HR. With that comes more SO and a collection of players who seem incapable of playing small ball. Spencer Steer had 2 hits and 2 RBIs today. His K% is 21.3 There are 14 players for the Twins this year that have a greater K%. Kepler, Wallner, Miranda, and Gordon are lowerer.
  21. Eris
    Injuries contributed a lot to Hick’s last several years of underperformance. However, he has been brutal this year in the OF, missing balls that should have been easy outs. One of the effects of trading Hicks is that Buxton was called up before he was able to be effective at the MLB level.
  22. Eris
    I agree with everything you have written. In general unions are designed to protect the most senior members. This is as much true for MLB players, the umpires union, as well as teachers unions and the auto factory. This is one of the reasons why I thought having the MLB players association represent the minor league players was a poor idea. The objectives of minor league players are inherently in conflict with major league players.
  23. Eris
    The Gio Urshela trade can not be viewed in isolation. Urshela was essentially traded for Kyle Farmer. By most metrics (WRC+, OPS, WAR), Farmer has outperformed Urshela. Yes, 3B is a problem. Few would have predicted that Spencer Steer would outperform Jose Miranda.
  24. Eris
    I think the biggest criticism of the PH moves is depleting the bench early in the game. However, Rocco didn’t get 16Ks by himself, 12 of which came against Manaea and Beck, both of whom have ERAs >5.4. There should be expectation that MLB players can take quality at bats. Currently, beyond Kirilloff, something few players on the Twins seem capable of doing. I was going to put Farmer on the list with Kirilloff but noticed that Farmer’s K% has increased from 17% last year to 26% this year.
  25. Eris
    Steven Kwan, Guardians left fielder and Larnach’s teammate at Oregon, was drafted in the 5th round of the 2018 draft and has accumulated 4.8 WAR. Data is from Fangraphs.
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