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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. I would like to see the Twins win another World Series. If it takes 32 more years I likely won’t be around.
  2. If Sonny Gray wants to pitch deeper into games, perhaps he should pitch better. Justin Morneau and Tori Hunter almost got into a fight. I believe the issue was that Justin Morneau was not hustling on a play. https://www.postbulletin.com/news/hunter-morneau-nearly-came-to-blows
  3. Sometime ago on the Twins radio broadcast they mentioned that the Twins win about 2/3 of their games when the team has <10 Ks and only win about 1/3 of their games when they have 10 or more strike outs. Vs Detroit, the Ks were 11, 10, 5, and 14. And they won the game 2-0 on Saturday were they had only 5 Ks. I have accepted that this team is not very good. My expectations for the remainder of the season are quite low. I had posted on a different thread that the Reds who are in full rebuild mode having traded away about 1/2 of their team before, during and after the 2022 season have a better record than the Twins who were all in for the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
  4. The past year, the Reds were in rebuilding mode, trading away more than half of their roster. The Twins were all in. The Reds and the Twins have identical records at this point. The main reason for this is the failure of Twins core to perform anywhere near their expected level. So no, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sano have not met prospect expectations. I expect Polanco and Kepler to be gone before next season.
  5. I think the description of OAA is not quite correct. From MLB Outs Above Average for infielders takes the following factors into account. • How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball ("the intercept point"). • How much time he has to get there. • How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to. Therefore, it is a value that should be independent of positioning. (Or I think that the skill associated with good positioning is not captured by this method of analysis) https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average#
  6. It is just a joy to watch Lewis play. Trying to remember a Twins player who was that athletic. Maybe Buxton when he was allowed to roam CF.
  7. I thought at one point in the past the Twins had a rule about not letting any pitcher continue after throwing more than 35 pitches in one inning. Reasons for this would include that needing that many pitches to get through an inning is from a high stress inning and also indicates the pitcher is not being very effective.
  8. When you have a chance to turn a double play to get out of the inning, the infield needs to turn two. All the runs were earned, a scoring rule I would like to see changed.
  9. Different way for umpires to affect the outcome of a game. Of course they conveniently make it a non reviewable judgment call. This is a joke.
  10. It is not just the strike outs, although that is the end result, many of the strike outs result from poor at bats, like swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone.
  11. I have looked up the K% of players who were on different teams last year. Taylor, Farmer, Castro, Vasquez all have K% about 10% higher than last year. Solano, is 3% higher and Gallo is about 2% lower. I don’t think these differences happened by coincidence. Add to this that several ex-Twins are doing really well.
  12. @Mark Git is a good question, I think it is a rare attribute to have both elite speed and a good hit tool (and the ability to run efficient routes). In the Twins organization Buxton, Castro, Gordon, Taylor and Lewis have elite speed. Of these only Lewis might have an above average hit tool.
  13. I thought for a moment that you were describing the current Twins roster.
  14. With the exceptions that Buxton has 5 more RBIs and more power and has not played an inning in the OF, there is little to differentiate M. Taylor from B. Buxton. The title is incorrect, it should read “Byron Buxton has become the insurance policy that M. Taylor needs”
  15. The Twins had one player in their lineup with an OPS over 0.800. The Rays had six. It doesn’t seem like a competition where a chance at an equal outcome is expected.
  16. @rv78I did not make my comments clear enough. I think acquiring pitchers with multiple years of control at the trade deadline is higher risk strategy and the Yankees acquisition of Montas is another example of risks associated with this strategy. Like the Twins they hurt their playoff prospects last year and this year by making a trade that didn’t work out.
  17. There are multiple avenues to do trades. Acquiring expiring contracts at the deadline vs acquiring pitchers that are not on expiring contracts and therefore pay a higher price in terms of prospects. If the FO makes a good trade the team is helped for the next seasons and a bad trade is more painful. Trading for pitchers on expiring contracts would be a lower risk strategy. The Twins were not the only team that made deadline acquisitions for pitchers that didn’t work out. The Yankees trade for Frankie Montas and subsequent unloading of Jordan Montgomery were also trades that did not work out for the Yankees.
  18. It wasn’t just the trade deadline that was problematic for the FO. The trade for Paddock and Pagán is was necessitated the trade deadline deals. The Twins were buyers when they should have been sellers. Finishing 14 games behind the Guardians and 8 games out of the wild card was not a little miss by the FO.
  19. I tend to agree with you. Correa re-aggravated his foot injury from the previous week and maybe being placed on the IL would be helpful.
  20. I am quite dissatisfied about the games being on Apple TV. I have a subscription to MLB and this just devalues what I have paid for—not to mention the emotional disappointment of sitting down on the couch, beer in hand, to watch the Twins and discover you can’t (at least not without paying more money). Oh wait, the Reds are tied in the 9th, let me watch that. Sorry that game is on Apple TV as well.
  21. Fangraphs with an article on Spencer Steer. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cincinnatis-spencer-steer-believes-in-contact-and-backspinning-line-drives/
  22. This has a chance to go down as the worst trade in franchise history which was the Delmon Young for Bartlett and Garza, which was about -20 war. Steer and CES should be able to put up 10 WAR or so each. I am glad for Steer that he is making the most of his opportunity. What makes the trade a failure is the Mahle did not contribute down the stretch last year. https://puckettspond.com/2020/06/01/minnesota-twins-ranking-10-worst-trades/
  23. Dugas et al.44 reviewed baseball players who had undergone surgical ACL reconstruction across all levels of competitive play, finding a majority of ACL tears to occur during fielding (68%), or base running (29%), with outfielders at the greatest positional risk. From. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20503121221076369#:~:text=Dugas et al.&text=reviewed baseball players who had,at the greatest positional risk. Several notes study mentions that there are a limited number of ACL tears in baseball, which may have an affect on data analysis. Players with ACL reconstruction play on average 20% less than non injured equivalent Also, the FDA approved in 2021 a new procedure for ACL repair. Google “BEAR ACL repair” and you will plenty of information.
  24. The problem for the Twins becomes one of value. Buxton accumulated 4 fWAR last year. Prorated to 162 games, at his current rate, Buxton will not match last years WAR (because DH is assigned a negative defensive value). I don’t really understand the logic behind not having Buxton in CF. First, he injured his knee sliding into second last year. Second, Buxton is a difference maker playing CF. The best solution would seem to be to train Buxton not to crash into outfield walls with his team up by 8 runs.
  25. It is hard for me to remember a team which offensively was this disappointing. Maybe because I expected the Twins to be good while they just seem to be playing poorly not withstanding the fact that they are in first place. There are a number of factors that drive my disappointment. The team leaders, Buxton on Correa are doing poorly. Several players who were expected to have good seasons have either bombed (Miranda) or are in the IL (Larnach, Gordon, Mahle ). Then there is the situational components such failure to score runs with the bases loaded. Watching hitter after hitter K in critical at bats, and BS from the bullpen. Add also to this add to this that several ex-Twins who were either traded, given away, or left unprotected are having very good years and it is really easy to be negative on the team. Maybe Kirilloff, Lewis and getting Polanco back will help turn things around.
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