Eris

Here is an interesting article written in 2010 on this topic. One thing we can conclude from the article is had Berrios been taller, he would have been drafted earlier. https://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

Below is the Mean and Median WAR for the First Overall pick from 1965-2000. Andrian Gonzales drafted in 2000 is still playing. Data is WAR from Fangraphs and are presented as Mean, Median, Min and Max. Sorry it is some what difficult to read. It shows that the average WAR is 10 units higher for an outfielder or infielder vs a pitcher. Generally the position players had much higher upside. Where the median is substantially less than the mean like at infielder, it indicates a disproportionate number of busts and that the average is pulled up by the contributions of Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones. Note, I considered only the position drafted and did not compensate of a later position change. Interesting, that drafting a catcher first overall is the riskiest choice of all (although with a smaller number of picks). Of the 5 catchers taken first overall prior to Mauer, only Mike Ivie drafted in 1970 and BJ Surhoff had positive WAR, 7.5 and 31.4 respectively. Number of players drafted, Mean, Median, Min, Max Outfielder 10, 28.2, 28.2, -1.2, 77.7 Infielder 11, 28.3, 15.2, 0.6, 113.5 Catcher 5, 7.3, 0.0, -1.2, 31.4 Pitcher 10, 18.1, 17.7, 0, 36.2 The first overall pitcher with the highest WAR is David Price (who of course is still pitching). My conclusion from this is that if a team has a pitcher and a position player ranked similarly, taking the position player would typically be the better move. This discussion could be equally relevant to Royce Lewis vs picking 1 of several pitchers. We just don't know the outcome of that selection.

If you were replace Joe Mauer's down years since his concussion with his career average WAR, that would add up to $200 million. Injuries are part of baseball. Such is the nature of guaranteed MLB contracts. This risk from injury is transferred from the player to the owner. The owner should really insure against the risk of such injury. I am happy that Joe Mauer was able to return from his concussion (unlike Cory Koskie and Justin Morneau). Perhaps one of the learnings here is just how long it takes for the brain to fully recover from a concussion. As the article is about Joe Mauer's future. I hope he remains a productive member of the Twins for his entire career and makes it to the Hall of Fame. I also look forward to the day when advanced sabermetrics can quantify the value of a great defensive first baseman.

On Rosario's non-catch. To me it looks like he just overran the ball (laterally). Eddie Rosario is not a good outfielder and he has regressed from his 2016 season. His statcast defensive statistics are similar to the much maligned Robbie Grossman. (Statcast link below, click on teams and scroll down to the Twins). The problem is the Rosario is 10/18 on 3 star opportunities. For comparison, Kepler was 19/21 in the same 3 star category. The difference between Kepler and Rosario is not insignificant. Over the course of the season, Kepler will catch about 20-25 more balls than Rosario. As someone else had noted on the thread on the Twins outfield Rosario has lost about a ft/sec on his sprint speed since 2015 ( 2015: 28.7, 2016: 28.4, 2017: 27.8) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard?type=player&min=25&year=2017 As others on this thread have noted, the Twins did not lose the game last night because Rosario did not make this play, they lost because they could not hit when it mattered. Sano has struck out 47% of the time. Buxton is 2nd on the team with a K% of 29%.

There have been a number of retractable roof stadiums built. While I can understand the desire to save money by not incorporating a retractable roof, designing Target Field so that a retractable roof could never be added is looking like a poor idea. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/13_april_snow_records.html

In 2017, the difference between Kepler and Rosario was significant according to Statcast. Kepler: 8 Outs Above Average, Rank: 14th, Caught 71.7% of the opportunities Rosario: -4 Outs Above Average, Rank: 183, Caught 54.2% of the opportunities. For the 2016 season, Kepler and Rosario's Statcast data Kepler: 11 Outs Above Average, Rank: 13th, Caught 67.6% of the opportunities Rosario: 5 Outs Above Average, Rank: 28th, Caught 60.2% of the opportunities. In comparison to the previous season, Kepler improved and Rosario regressed. Was Rosario hurt or does this just reflect efforts at defensive improvement? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard?type=player&min=25&year=2017

While I am sympathetic to the minor league players and find this type of action by members of congress to be disgusting, we should also keep in mind that the major league players union also sold out on the minor leaguers. They too share part of the blame for this exploitation.

On Tanner Swanson. I am glad he is okay. A professional baseball field is an OSHA regulated work place and I have never understood the lack of willingness to thoroughly protect players / coaches in the dugout. I get that players like an unobstructed view when watching the game, but eventually someone will get seriously hurt (or worse) unless additional netting is installed.

I think Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn each received bad advice from their agent. All three were coming off down years and had QO. It was unrealistic to expect > $50 million over 3 years and hope they return to their old form. By accepting the QA they would have had a year to prove themselves and would have entered FA next year with no loss of draft picks or IFA pool money for the signing team. They would potentially have had more value. As a strategy I am surprised it is not more utilized by the players. Especially now that draft picks have more perceived value. I suspect that one of the reasons teams give QO is the high likelihood of them being declined. Look at the dumpster sale in Tampa. It is hard to believe the Rays were expecting to pay Cobb 17 million.

I don't know what happened to Aybar. At one point in his career he was average both offensively and defensively. That last year he achieved that was 2014. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4082&position=SS Adrianza put up 1 WAR last year playing in 70 games. With above average defense and slighly below average offense. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8418&position=2B/SS I would be surprised if Aybar beat out Adrianza. Aybar would need to play much better than he did last year for that to happen.

The tax on players is normally related to “duty” days. This article regarding a lawsuit against the city of Cleveland gives an overview. https://www.google.com/amp/www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-cleveland-jock-tax-0501-biz-20150430-story,amp.html

Joe Mauer can not be viewed separately from his contract. Joe Mauer had a good last season producing 2.3 WAR (data is from Fangraphs). Using Fangraphs estimate of 10.5 million/ free agent WAR, Joe Mauer produced $24 million in value in 2017. This is about equal to his $23 million contract. This was the first time since 2013 that Joe Mauer's production has matched the value of his contract. Put in a different way, were the Twins to trade Joe Mauer, he could be given away if the other team assumed his contract, with the Twins getting nothing in return, that is, his excess value above this contract is approximately 0.

I occasionally dig up some information and either respond to a thread or sometimes (very rarely) start a new thread. About a year ago, following a discussion with my son, I compiled the stat cast data on outfielders and posted the results on a forum. I spent several hours doing this analysis and working out the equations in excel. I think my efforts received 3 responses. It was very discouraging and points to one of the main challenges on TD. What topics would readers like to see covered that would generate interest? Somewhat of a catch 22. It would be helpful if members of TD could upload spreadsheets and photos. I could use advice on interviewing players for articles (I have never tried). I occasionally attend minor league games, was at spring training in Fort Meyers last year. How do I get an interview? What is the etiquette involved? I was in Cincinnati in September and Stuart Turner was playing. I would have loved to have a discussion with him about what it was like being a Rule V pickup and challenges in the big leagues. Is this even possible?

One area where Robbie Grossman has improved over last year is his outfield defense. Although a much smaller sample size, Grossman's statcast catch probability are statistically similar to Eddie Rosario's (data is from Baseball Savant). For Grossman this is a major improvement over last year where is was was one of the worst outfielder's in all MLB. He is still below average, but not horrendous Grossman's Catch probability 2016 : 2017 4 star, 4/13 : 1/7 3 star, 5/11 : 5/5 2 star, 5/8 : 3/3 1 star, 18/24 : 15/16 % balls caught 42% : 47% Edited to try to get the numbers to not run together. I have put a : between the 2016 and 2017 stats. The fractions are balls caught/opportunities.

Bad/biased umpiring also contributed to the loss column. Cuzzi's foul ball call was probably the worst call in post season history.

For me, as a fan, there nothing more demoralizing than Saturdays game. Having Sano come up with the bases load in the 9th inning and a chance to put the game away and he swings at 3 pitches out of the strike zone. It is not necessarily about strikeouts, it is about quality at bats, of which BB are a good indicator. Per Fangraphs, during the first 2 months of this season, Sano's BB% and K% was 15.5 and 37.4, respectively. During the last 2 months BB% and K% is 6.6 and 36.5% respectively. I would never have guessed that Sano's K% has actually decreased (every so slightly) from the beginning of the year because the quality of his at bats (as measured by BB%) has plummeted. As measured by OBP, Sano's OBP during the first 2 months of the season was 0.408. During the last 2 months it is 0.280.

This is one of the most profound statements I have ever read on TD. I mean this in the most positive way. It is 100% correct and belongs in the Hall of Fame of baseball quotes.

Trading for very good pitching is very expensive. Look at the trades for Sale, Miller and Chapman. Those trades remade the Yankees farm system. If you look at the Sale trade, which involved MLB top ranked prospect and a 30, the Twins currently have no one in there farm system to make such a deal. If you look back historically, it would have been the equivalent of the Twins trading Sano (or Buxton) plus Berrios and couple of lower level prospects. If the Twins were 1 starting pitcher away from a legitimate shot at a WS run, I could see a trade for Archer, Gray, or Quintana. The problem is the Twins need at least 1 starting pitcher (maybe 2) and 2 relief pitchers. Obviously the injuries to May and Perkins have an impact. I don't believe the Twins are capable of beating Houston, or Washington or the Dodgers. So I would not trade away top prospects at the trade deadline, especially when prices for quality arms are expensive.

The Verducci article in SI is a interesting article and I would encourage everyone to read it. There is however more to an effective curve that high spin. Kershaw has an average curball spin of 2373 rpm (lower than the league average of 2500 rpm). Kershaw's effectiveness is attributed to hitters not being able to get an early read on his curve because it looks indistinguishable from his fastball out of his hand. Seth Lugo (Mets) who had the highest recorded curveball spin rate in the Statcast era, was not mentioned in the article. The Unteachable Skill. One should always be skeptical when someone indicates something can't be done. It is interesting that a number of pitchers who have great curveballs taught themselves or learned it from their dad and spent many hours crafting the skill. A number things that we have once thought of as being true were not true. Examples, hitters could not distinguish a slider from a fastball, curveballs hurt young arms and therefore many players were never taught how to throw a curveball. The current system (college and MLB) has rewarded young players with elite velocity and as a result there is an industry of baseball academies / training facilities focused on teaching young players the mechanics of throwing a baseball 90-95+ mph. The result is an explosion of TJ injuries. When the incentives change to reward players with elite curveballs (which is maybe now be happening), this industry will change to teach players how to throw effective curveballs. It might be that the mechanics of max velocity are not conducive to throwing a good curveball and therefore someone who throws 100 mph fastball can not throw a good curveball using the same mechanics.

Being able to throw a complete game and its benefits to the team is one of the attributes that is lost in the velocity arms race and the desire for maximum strikeouts. If your starter goes 6 innings, a team will typically need 4 or more pitchers to make it through the game. Long term that has the effect of making the bullpen less effective from overuse. There is an interesting article I was first alerted to by a post in the TD draft thread, on the return of the curveball. Santana doesn't have great velocity or a good curveball, but there are indications that teams are moving beyond velocity. https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/05/23/curveball-clayton-kershaw-lance-mccullers

I did not watch the game on Saturday. According to this report, he hit 94 mph (at least once) during the game. http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-10/brendan-mckay-becomes-louisvilles-all-time-strikeout-leader

That is certainly part of the problem. Per fangraphs, last year he threw 180 curveballs and 122 were strikes (68%). This year, so far, he has thrown 63 curveballs, and only 31 have been strikes (50%). I don't know if this is on Pressly or if batters have figured out that they can't hit his curveball and just layoff the pitch. Someone with more skill than I would need to evaluate the data if there is a difference in his in-zone vs. out of zone strike %. Analytical data cuts both ways. It tells pitchers what they need to throw for strikes, but it also helps batters identify what pitches to avoid.

While it is convenient to place the blame on Pressly and he was also the one demoted, there is a catcher involved in the pitch selection as well. Has Pressly been shaking off the catcher or is he throwing what is called.

Not too many years ago, management had similar concerns about a contending team with a sub-optimal closer and ended up trading Wilson Ramos for Matthew Capps. Lets not even think about going there again. It is even more challenging now as closers are even more expensive, e.g., last years deadline trades for Chapman and Miller will help make the Yankees contenders for years. My biggest concern is that the decision to go to Kintzler in the 9th is almost automatic. How about if a reliever is pitching well in the 8th, let him pitch the 9th too. Right now, there are not too many good options. I agree with Han Joelo, I would give the ball to Duffy.

Is this refusal by ML teams to consider having 2-way players based on data or is it just how things have always been done and no team wants to be the first to try (and perhaps fail). It seems to me if this could be done successfully, it would give a team a significant advantage-especially a NL team. In recent years there is increased usage of NL pitchers as pinch hitters. Marcus Stroman pinch hit in a game last night. I find it interesting that both McKay and Greene, likely the two top picks in this years draft could both be drafted as a position player or a pitcher (although Greene is likely to be a pitcher). Shohei Otani has managed to be a successful 2-way player in Japan. If he were to come to the U.S., would he continue being a two-way player or would teams force him to choose (or choose for him)?