Eris

There are several academic papers that have attempted to quantify the importance of leadership attributes. I have copied what I consider to be the relevant portions of the research below. I have linked the research paper for those who are interested in reading this. The results suggest that social cohesion and social networking are correlated with a teams success. The role of team leaders is to promote these attributes. The Relationship Among Athlete Leadership Behaviors and Cohesion in Team Sports Diana J.E. Vincer and Todd M. Loughead, University of Windsor http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.841.8356&rep=rep1&type=pdf This study examined the influence of athlete leadership behaviors on perceptions of team cohesion. The participants were 312 athletes from 25 varsity and club level teams. Each participant completed the Group Environment Questionnaire (Carron, Widmeyer, & Brawley, 1985) that assessed cohesion and the Leadership Scale for Sports (Chelladurai & Saleh, 1980) that assessed athlete leadership behaviors. Overall, it was found that individual perceptions of Training and Instruction, and Social Support positively influenced all four dimensions of cohesion (ATG-T, ATG-S, GI–T, GI-S). Furthermore, Autocratic Behavior was negatively associated with the four dimensions of cohesion. Finally, Democratic Behavior was positively related to ATG-T. These findings provide researchers, sport psychology consultants, athletes, and coaches with some initial evidence that it is important to foster the development of athlete leader behaviors to influence the team environment. Note. ATG-T = Individual attractions to the group-task, ATG-S = Individual attractions to the groupsocial, GI-T = Group integration-task, GI-S = Group integration-social. TI = Training and instruction, DB = Democratic behavior, AB = Autocratic behavior, SS = Social support, PF = Positive feedback. The first aspect pertaining to the results is the positive relationship between athlete leader behaviors and cohesion. Based on the operational definitions of the subscales of cohesion and leadership, the results suggested that athlete leaders who demonstrated leadership behaviors toward improving performance through rigorous training and instruction and showed an increased amount of concern for the team member’s welfare had teammates who perceived a higher sense involvement in the productivity of team goals, of personal acceptance and social interactions within their team, of similarity, closeness, and unity within the group around the team’s task objectives, and to their team as a social unit. The results of the present supplement the Dupuis et al. (2006) finding by suggesting that the leadership behaviors of Training and Instruction, and Social Support can positively influence a team’s cohesiveness both at a task and social level. Thus, it is important for athlete leaders to use high levels of Training and Instruction, and Social Support behaviors. A second point pertains to the negative relationship between the athlete leader behavior of Autocratic Behavior and all four dimensions of cohesion. Previous coaching leadership research has shown that this leadership behavior is negatively related to both task and social cohesion (e.g., Gardner et al., 1996). Thus, the athletes’ perception of their cohesiveness (i.e., team’s productivity toward their goals and their personal acceptance within the team) was lower when they felt their athlete leaders taking a more authoritative role in the decision making process. This negative relationship between Autocratic Behavior and cohesion (task and social) may be viewed from a cohesion perspective as the athletes feeling a decreased sense of closeness, bonding, personal involvement, and personal acceptance with their teammates. Consequently, it would appear that autocratic type of athlete leadership behaviors can detract from a team’s cohesiveness. 2nd Article TIES, LEADERS, AND TIME IN TEAMS: STRONG INFERENCE ABOUT NETWORK STRUCTURE’S EFFECTS ON TEAM VIABILITY AND PERFORMANCE PRASAD BALKUNDI State University of New York at Buffalo DAVID A. HARRISON The Pennsylvania State University (PDF available at Research gate https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274753287_Ties_leaders_and_time_in_teams_Strong_inference_about_network_structure%27s_effects_on_team_viability_and_performance) How do members’ and leaders’ social network structures help or hinder team effectiveness? A meta-analysis of 37 studies of teams in natural contexts suggests that teams with densely configured interpersonal ties attain their goals better and are more committed to staying together; that is, team task performance and viability are both higher.Further, teams with leaders who are central in the teams’ intragroup networks and teams that are central in their intergroup network tend to perform better. Time sequencing, member familiarity, and tie content moderate structure-performance connections. Results suggest stronger incorporation of social network concepts into theories about team effectiveness.

Torii Hunter switched teams via free agency 4 times. With the Twins his highest WAR was 4.2. His career high WAR was 4.7 in 2012 (Angels). He accumulated 42.7 WAR over 17 seasons (average 2.5 WAR/season). Over the period from 1999 to 2015 he ranks 31st in total WAR. I have compared the records of the teams during switch years. The numbers in parenthesis is the comparison in wins to the following year. 2007/2008 Twins(+6) Angels(+7) 2012/2013 Angels(-11) Tigers(+5) 2014/2015 Tigers(-16) Twins(+13) 2015/2016 Twins(-24) 3 out of 4 times the team that Torii Hunter left did worse the following year. Every team he went to did better. Is this because Torii Hunter was a great player, or because Torii Hunter was a great club house leader? I think it is because he was a great club house leader. Leadership matters a lot.

Leadership matters. FO, managerial, and club house. The Washington Nationals are an organization that doesn’t appear to have any. There have been many articles written. Here is a summary. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2018/8/2/17640406/washington-nationals-dave-martinez-kintzler-kelley-mess-rumors-leaks-trades

Team control based on age when the player signs, with the goal that players will be free agents at age 28. Replace the last 4 years of arbitration with restricted free agency (like in football) giving the controlling team the right to match the contract.

Since the 2016 season Addison Reed has 189 appearances which is 1 less than Bryan Shaw. Data is from fangraphs. He is among the the most overworked pitchers in MLB for 3 years. I think the current results while disappointing, are very predictable.

Sorting Fangraphs leaderboard on K% indicates that 21 of 30 “leaders” in K% have a negative offensive contribution to total WAR. Perhaps it is unrealistic to expect high K% players like Sano to be carrying a team. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d Furthermore, if you look Fangraphs leaderboard by WAR, only 2 of the top 60 players have a K% of 30 or more (Judge and Stanton of the Yankees at 30 and 31%, respectively). The odds are completely against Sano becoming an all-star caliber player unless he significantly improves plate discipline. Anything is possible because Eddie Rosario has been able to improve this aspect of his game. I have less confidence that Sano will take an equivalent step.

If we are going to mention our favorites we should be more complete in our assessments. Ave/OPS Hicks 0.240/0.757 Palka 0.271/0.837 Palka is one of the worst defensive outfielders in MLB. He would be mostly a DH JR Murphy 0.250/0.794 He had a HR yesterday. While the Twins could use him now. His stats are similar to Mitch Garver (Garver is better defensively) while JR Murphy provides worse defense than Kurt Suzuki. Murphy's ISO is 0.268 so he is developing some power.

Ryan Pressly has appeared in 16 of 28 games the Twins have played. He is tracking towards 92 appearances for the year. (Early season snow outs make the prediction less reliable). Nonetheless, I think Ryan Pressly is being over used and at the current rate will lose his effectiveness. The most appearances by a reliever last year was 79. Addison Reed had 77. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

There are multiple levels of reasons for this. Granite being hurt is one. But what puzzles me is seeing Grossman out in the field when Ryan LaMarre is sitting on the bench, especially late in the game. I don't have enough statistical information on LaMarre, except to say when the Twins do make a defensive substitution, LaMarre is normally in centerfield with Kepler moving to RF. That at least implies that Molitor thinks LaMarre is better defensively than Kepler. While it is easy to crap on Grossman (and he did have an error last night) Fangraphs has the revised zone rating (RZR) for Grossman and Rosario as being the same. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0

In 2014, Hughes was touching 96 at his upper range. The best I’ve seen tonight is 91. But there’s also a 1.5 mph adjustment from PitchX to Statcast. Therefore, Hughes has lost 6.5 mph on his fastball because of injuries. Perkins velocity loss was similar and he decided to retire.

The Hall of Stats (which I might add is a very good site) has Joe Mauer being inducted into that Hall of Fame. http://www.hallofstats.com/player/mauerjo01

Here is an interesting article written in 2010 on this topic. One thing we can conclude from the article is had Berrios been taller, he would have been drafted earlier. https://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

Below is the Mean and Median WAR for the First Overall pick from 1965-2000. Andrian Gonzales drafted in 2000 is still playing. Data is WAR from Fangraphs and are presented as Mean, Median, Min and Max. Sorry it is some what difficult to read. It shows that the average WAR is 10 units higher for an outfielder or infielder vs a pitcher. Generally the position players had much higher upside. Where the median is substantially less than the mean like at infielder, it indicates a disproportionate number of busts and that the average is pulled up by the contributions of Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones. Note, I considered only the position drafted and did not compensate of a later position change. Interesting, that drafting a catcher first overall is the riskiest choice of all (although with a smaller number of picks). Of the 5 catchers taken first overall prior to Mauer, only Mike Ivie drafted in 1970 and BJ Surhoff had positive WAR, 7.5 and 31.4 respectively. Number of players drafted, Mean, Median, Min, Max Outfielder 10, 28.2, 28.2, -1.2, 77.7 Infielder 11, 28.3, 15.2, 0.6, 113.5 Catcher 5, 7.3, 0.0, -1.2, 31.4 Pitcher 10, 18.1, 17.7, 0, 36.2 The first overall pitcher with the highest WAR is David Price (who of course is still pitching). My conclusion from this is that if a team has a pitcher and a position player ranked similarly, taking the position player would typically be the better move. This discussion could be equally relevant to Royce Lewis vs picking 1 of several pitchers. We just don't know the outcome of that selection.

If you were replace Joe Mauer's down years since his concussion with his career average WAR, that would add up to $200 million. Injuries are part of baseball. Such is the nature of guaranteed MLB contracts. This risk from injury is transferred from the player to the owner. The owner should really insure against the risk of such injury. I am happy that Joe Mauer was able to return from his concussion (unlike Cory Koskie and Justin Morneau). Perhaps one of the learnings here is just how long it takes for the brain to fully recover from a concussion. As the article is about Joe Mauer's future. I hope he remains a productive member of the Twins for his entire career and makes it to the Hall of Fame. I also look forward to the day when advanced sabermetrics can quantify the value of a great defensive first baseman.

On Rosario's non-catch. To me it looks like he just overran the ball (laterally). Eddie Rosario is not a good outfielder and he has regressed from his 2016 season. His statcast defensive statistics are similar to the much maligned Robbie Grossman. (Statcast link below, click on teams and scroll down to the Twins). The problem is the Rosario is 10/18 on 3 star opportunities. For comparison, Kepler was 19/21 in the same 3 star category. The difference between Kepler and Rosario is not insignificant. Over the course of the season, Kepler will catch about 20-25 more balls than Rosario. As someone else had noted on the thread on the Twins outfield Rosario has lost about a ft/sec on his sprint speed since 2015 ( 2015: 28.7, 2016: 28.4, 2017: 27.8) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard?type=player&min=25&year=2017 As others on this thread have noted, the Twins did not lose the game last night because Rosario did not make this play, they lost because they could not hit when it mattered. Sano has struck out 47% of the time. Buxton is 2nd on the team with a K% of 29%.

There have been a number of retractable roof stadiums built. While I can understand the desire to save money by not incorporating a retractable roof, designing Target Field so that a retractable roof could never be added is looking like a poor idea. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/13_april_snow_records.html

In 2017, the difference between Kepler and Rosario was significant according to Statcast. Kepler: 8 Outs Above Average, Rank: 14th, Caught 71.7% of the opportunities Rosario: -4 Outs Above Average, Rank: 183, Caught 54.2% of the opportunities. For the 2016 season, Kepler and Rosario's Statcast data Kepler: 11 Outs Above Average, Rank: 13th, Caught 67.6% of the opportunities Rosario: 5 Outs Above Average, Rank: 28th, Caught 60.2% of the opportunities. In comparison to the previous season, Kepler improved and Rosario regressed. Was Rosario hurt or does this just reflect efforts at defensive improvement? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard?type=player&min=25&year=2017

While I am sympathetic to the minor league players and find this type of action by members of congress to be disgusting, we should also keep in mind that the major league players union also sold out on the minor leaguers. They too share part of the blame for this exploitation.

On Tanner Swanson. I am glad he is okay. A professional baseball field is an OSHA regulated work place and I have never understood the lack of willingness to thoroughly protect players / coaches in the dugout. I get that players like an unobstructed view when watching the game, but eventually someone will get seriously hurt (or worse) unless additional netting is installed.

I think Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn each received bad advice from their agent. All three were coming off down years and had QO. It was unrealistic to expect > $50 million over 3 years and hope they return to their old form. By accepting the QA they would have had a year to prove themselves and would have entered FA next year with no loss of draft picks or IFA pool money for the signing team. They would potentially have had more value. As a strategy I am surprised it is not more utilized by the players. Especially now that draft picks have more perceived value. I suspect that one of the reasons teams give QO is the high likelihood of them being declined. Look at the dumpster sale in Tampa. It is hard to believe the Rays were expecting to pay Cobb 17 million.

I don't know what happened to Aybar. At one point in his career he was average both offensively and defensively. That last year he achieved that was 2014. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4082&position=SS Adrianza put up 1 WAR last year playing in 70 games. With above average defense and slighly below average offense. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8418&position=2B/SS I would be surprised if Aybar beat out Adrianza. Aybar would need to play much better than he did last year for that to happen.

The tax on players is normally related to “duty” days. This article regarding a lawsuit against the city of Cleveland gives an overview. https://www.google.com/amp/www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-cleveland-jock-tax-0501-biz-20150430-story,amp.html

Joe Mauer can not be viewed separately from his contract. Joe Mauer had a good last season producing 2.3 WAR (data is from Fangraphs). Using Fangraphs estimate of 10.5 million/ free agent WAR, Joe Mauer produced $24 million in value in 2017. This is about equal to his $23 million contract. This was the first time since 2013 that Joe Mauer's production has matched the value of his contract. Put in a different way, were the Twins to trade Joe Mauer, he could be given away if the other team assumed his contract, with the Twins getting nothing in return, that is, his excess value above this contract is approximately 0.

I occasionally dig up some information and either respond to a thread or sometimes (very rarely) start a new thread. About a year ago, following a discussion with my son, I compiled the stat cast data on outfielders and posted the results on a forum. I spent several hours doing this analysis and working out the equations in excel. I think my efforts received 3 responses. It was very discouraging and points to one of the main challenges on TD. What topics would readers like to see covered that would generate interest? Somewhat of a catch 22. It would be helpful if members of TD could upload spreadsheets and photos. I could use advice on interviewing players for articles (I have never tried). I occasionally attend minor league games, was at spring training in Fort Meyers last year. How do I get an interview? What is the etiquette involved? I was in Cincinnati in September and Stuart Turner was playing. I would have loved to have a discussion with him about what it was like being a Rule V pickup and challenges in the big leagues. Is this even possible?

One area where Robbie Grossman has improved over last year is his outfield defense. Although a much smaller sample size, Grossman's statcast catch probability are statistically similar to Eddie Rosario's (data is from Baseball Savant). For Grossman this is a major improvement over last year where is was was one of the worst outfielder's in all MLB. He is still below average, but not horrendous Grossman's Catch probability 2016 : 2017 4 star, 4/13 : 1/7 3 star, 5/11 : 5/5 2 star, 5/8 : 3/3 1 star, 18/24 : 15/16 % balls caught 42% : 47% Edited to try to get the numbers to not run together. I have put a : between the 2016 and 2017 stats. The fractions are balls caught/opportunities.