Eris

I think it is also worthwhile to review what happened last year. The 2 trades that had the biggest impact on the playoffs were made by the Red Sox. Depending on the source, Beeks was the 7th ranked 2018 preseason Red Sox prospect and Espinal was unranked (or more accurate to say I could not find his ranking). Although hindsight is always 20/20, the Steve Pearce acquisition was listed as an afterthought on the deadline trade summary. 1B/OF Steve Pearce and cash considerations from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for minor league INF Santiago Espinal RHP Nathan Eovaldi to Red Sox; LHP Jalen Beeks to Rays https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

It is a little late posting this. I was at the game last night with my son. And had a seat several rows behind the Mets dugout. Several observations that have not been discussed. I thought Kepler has 2 very good at bats last night, with only a single to show for it. First inning, he had a 7 pitch at bat leading off the game (ending in a SO). This kind of set the tone for the Twins batters. There were alot of quality at bat against deGrom. The 4th inning he had a similarly good at bat before getting a single. Buxton looks very good. Except for the last at bat (which was poor in part because he looked like he was trying to hit a HR) he had some quality at bats. Astudillo seems a little slow to the ball at first base. Two plays in particular. The ball that glanced off Astudillo's glove and both Schoop and Gibson made a combined great play. And a double down the first base line (I don't remember the innings for either play). I thought Astudillo should have gotten to both balls. The fans in NY can be quite ruthless. After Peter Alonso made and error, some of fans were yelling "See you in Syracuse" (Mets AAA) as he was coming off the field. He is only hitting 0.385. There were other comments directed toward Cano and d'Arnaud that I can't write here. It was bone chilling cold and Citi Field. I never realized the 50 degrees could feel so cold (and I thought we had dressed properly). When the game ended at 11:45, there were only about 1000 fans left in the stands. I thought the ushers were a little too aggressive in preventing fans from moving down during the last couple to innings. There were so few fans left and it was so cold, I thought it would have been a nice gesture.

I would add a stage. Going to MLB and checking Astudillo’s rookie status. He is eligible for the rookie of the year award. This is going to be exciting. A Twin has not won Rookie of the Year since Marty Cordova in 1995.

I would add Paul DePodesta to this list. When he went to the Cleveland Browns there was some serious questions about how he could apply "moneyball" techniques to football. He is having some success as the Browns had a competitive team for the first time in many years. There was recently an article (which I can't find, it may have been is the Wall Street Journal) which indicated the DePodesta had a plan to be competitive for 10 years. And as part of this, traded current draft picks for more valuable future picks (because the NFL overvalues this years picks by about 20% compared to next years draft picks). https://clutchpoints.com/salary-cap-wizard-paul-depodesta-helped-john-dorsey-browns-create-best-contract-situation-nfl/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_DePodesta

I think the benefits of using the opener is related to how poorly a pitcher does the third time through the order. The use of the opener would mean that a pitcher can get deeper into the game without having to face the top of the order 3 times.

Several items I would add to this. The view from the bullpen is phenomenal. These are a few sequences from the bullpen before last years Twins-Red Sox game. Duffy vs. Sale. https://www.smugmug.com/gallery/n-7HHBdX Red Sox games at Jet Blue Park are almost always sold out. You need to plan ahead to watch games there. Jet Blue Park is a replica of Fenway Park with the Green Monster and it is probably worth seeing. http://www.floridagrapefruitleague.com/home/teams/redsox/ Other items around Ft. Meyers worth seeing. Lovers Key State Park (about 45 minutes from the Stadium. Closes at sundown). Beaches on Sanibel Island (also about 45 minutes, no free beach access, will need to pay for parking) Everglades City and Marco Island are 90 minutes south of Ft. Meyers. There are a number of places to rent kayaks or take an airboat tour of the Everglades. A 2 hour drive from Hammond Stadium puts you in the middle of Everglades National Park. There are plenty of tourist type attractions along rt 41/90. Here is a link (the description starts from Miami) https://www.floridarambler.com/florida-destinations/tamiami-trail-scenic-drive-everglades/

Here is discussion on Fangraphs regarding $/WAR. https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/ The Fangraphs figure is based on free agency. I think one of challenges that MLB faces is historically the salary structure underpaid young players and overpaid older players. This is changing as teams get better at estimating production declines with age. This is likely one of the reasons Harper is not signed. It is extremely difficult to estimate his value 10 years from now and teams are not willing to take that risk. The flip side of this is that teams will eventually reallocate resources towards more productive (younger) players. Teams have been slow to do so because arbitration disadvantages younger players. (And also paying younger players more puts more pressure on arbitration salaries). Kepler’s salary structure is an example of how paying more for present production can be used to reduce future risk. I would expect to see more of this type of salary structure in MLB going forward. John. Your article was a very informative write up. Thank you.

The Red Sox top 3 players produced 21 WAR in 2018. The top 4 was 25 WAR. Therefore, in order to be be competitive, the Twins will need 4 players with 5 WAR seasons or 5 players with 4 WAR seasons--plus pitching. Our top 5 players (Rosario, Kepler, Escobar, Cave and Polanco) contributed 11 WAR last year. The only way the Twins get to 20 WAR is if Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco all have career years. Is it possible, yes. Likely, No.

Here a breakdown of the Red Sox roster by acquisition. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/world-series-2018-how-the-red-sox-built-their-al-champion-roster-through-trades-free-agency-and-the-draft/ One thing that stands out is how well there draft picks picks have turned out 17 WAR contribution). In contrast, the entire Twins roster combined for about 15 WAR last year (data is from Fangraphs). https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/twins This implies that their scouting of amateur talent and/or player development is superior to the Twins.

A joy to watch. Thanks for the memories, Joe. Good luck with your future endeavors.

I understand the concept. Why stop at 1 inning. How about have the first pitcher throw 3 innings. The considerations would be: Availability of people who can throw more than 1 inning. Length of time needed for the “starter” to get ready. What I would like to see is data on the optimal use of a pitching staff. Factors would include throwing 20 pitches and being available the next day vs throwing 50 pitches and not being available for 3 days. Why not use the “throw” day of a starter to pitch 2 innings. Boston used this strategy in the playoffs with a lot of success. Not sure it can be sustained over the entire season.

Astudillo was the only person in Twins lineup last night with an OPS greater than 800. In contrast, the A’s had 6 players at that level. Fangraphs has an interesting statement attributing his 9 years of minor league performance without any MLB call up to “he doesn’t look like a baseball player”. His sprint speed is 24.7 ft/s. Only Bobby Wilson had a slower sprint speed for the Twins. He has made the most of his opportunity. I will also be rooting for him to make the team next year.

What I meant was that Byron Buxton has similar issues that Aaron Hicks had as this stage in the development, i.e, he can not hit. Hunter's relationship with Hick's may be very different than Hunter's relationship with Buxton. For one, they were teammates, vs a coach-player relationship. What clicked for Hicks may not work for Buxton or may not work for Sano or Duffy or any other player that is underperforming. Leadership through actions and behaviors increases the likelihood of winning. Leadership will help make the most of the talent that a team has.

It is more complicated than this, although I don't understand why. This is why leadership is such an intangible. There was a lot written on TD as well as others venues about the impact Torii Hunter had on Aaron Hicks. Many of the discussions and questions about batting performance for Hicks can be applied to Buxton. I have linked several of these articles below. Why was Torii Hunter able to help Aaron Hicks reach his potential, when the Twins coaches and manager could not. It is not as if they were not trying. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/540/entry-6743-maturity-experience-are-behind-aaron-hicks-reaching-his-potential/ https://nypost.com/2017/06/03/tough-love-with-that-guy-how-mentor-has-helped-aaron-hicks/ https://nypost.com/2015/11/18/torii-hunter-reveals-advice-to-immature-aaron-hicks/

There are several academic papers that have attempted to quantify the importance of leadership attributes. I have copied what I consider to be the relevant portions of the research below. I have linked the research paper for those who are interested in reading this. The results suggest that social cohesion and social networking are correlated with a teams success. The role of team leaders is to promote these attributes. The Relationship Among Athlete Leadership Behaviors and Cohesion in Team Sports Diana J.E. Vincer and Todd M. Loughead, University of Windsor http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.841.8356&rep=rep1&type=pdf This study examined the influence of athlete leadership behaviors on perceptions of team cohesion. The participants were 312 athletes from 25 varsity and club level teams. Each participant completed the Group Environment Questionnaire (Carron, Widmeyer, & Brawley, 1985) that assessed cohesion and the Leadership Scale for Sports (Chelladurai & Saleh, 1980) that assessed athlete leadership behaviors. Overall, it was found that individual perceptions of Training and Instruction, and Social Support positively influenced all four dimensions of cohesion (ATG-T, ATG-S, GI–T, GI-S). Furthermore, Autocratic Behavior was negatively associated with the four dimensions of cohesion. Finally, Democratic Behavior was positively related to ATG-T. These findings provide researchers, sport psychology consultants, athletes, and coaches with some initial evidence that it is important to foster the development of athlete leader behaviors to influence the team environment. Note. ATG-T = Individual attractions to the group-task, ATG-S = Individual attractions to the groupsocial, GI-T = Group integration-task, GI-S = Group integration-social. TI = Training and instruction, DB = Democratic behavior, AB = Autocratic behavior, SS = Social support, PF = Positive feedback. The first aspect pertaining to the results is the positive relationship between athlete leader behaviors and cohesion. Based on the operational definitions of the subscales of cohesion and leadership, the results suggested that athlete leaders who demonstrated leadership behaviors toward improving performance through rigorous training and instruction and showed an increased amount of concern for the team member’s welfare had teammates who perceived a higher sense involvement in the productivity of team goals, of personal acceptance and social interactions within their team, of similarity, closeness, and unity within the group around the team’s task objectives, and to their team as a social unit. The results of the present supplement the Dupuis et al. (2006) finding by suggesting that the leadership behaviors of Training and Instruction, and Social Support can positively influence a team’s cohesiveness both at a task and social level. Thus, it is important for athlete leaders to use high levels of Training and Instruction, and Social Support behaviors. A second point pertains to the negative relationship between the athlete leader behavior of Autocratic Behavior and all four dimensions of cohesion. Previous coaching leadership research has shown that this leadership behavior is negatively related to both task and social cohesion (e.g., Gardner et al., 1996). Thus, the athletes’ perception of their cohesiveness (i.e., team’s productivity toward their goals and their personal acceptance within the team) was lower when they felt their athlete leaders taking a more authoritative role in the decision making process. This negative relationship between Autocratic Behavior and cohesion (task and social) may be viewed from a cohesion perspective as the athletes feeling a decreased sense of closeness, bonding, personal involvement, and personal acceptance with their teammates. Consequently, it would appear that autocratic type of athlete leadership behaviors can detract from a team’s cohesiveness. 2nd Article TIES, LEADERS, AND TIME IN TEAMS: STRONG INFERENCE ABOUT NETWORK STRUCTURE’S EFFECTS ON TEAM VIABILITY AND PERFORMANCE PRASAD BALKUNDI State University of New York at Buffalo DAVID A. HARRISON The Pennsylvania State University (PDF available at Research gate https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274753287_Ties_leaders_and_time_in_teams_Strong_inference_about_network_structure%27s_effects_on_team_viability_and_performance) How do members’ and leaders’ social network structures help or hinder team effectiveness? A meta-analysis of 37 studies of teams in natural contexts suggests that teams with densely configured interpersonal ties attain their goals better and are more committed to staying together; that is, team task performance and viability are both higher.Further, teams with leaders who are central in the teams’ intragroup networks and teams that are central in their intergroup network tend to perform better. Time sequencing, member familiarity, and tie content moderate structure-performance connections. Results suggest stronger incorporation of social network concepts into theories about team effectiveness.

Torii Hunter switched teams via free agency 4 times. With the Twins his highest WAR was 4.2. His career high WAR was 4.7 in 2012 (Angels). He accumulated 42.7 WAR over 17 seasons (average 2.5 WAR/season). Over the period from 1999 to 2015 he ranks 31st in total WAR. I have compared the records of the teams during switch years. The numbers in parenthesis is the comparison in wins to the following year. 2007/2008 Twins(+6) Angels(+7) 2012/2013 Angels(-11) Tigers(+5) 2014/2015 Tigers(-16) Twins(+13) 2015/2016 Twins(-24) 3 out of 4 times the team that Torii Hunter left did worse the following year. Every team he went to did better. Is this because Torii Hunter was a great player, or because Torii Hunter was a great club house leader? I think it is because he was a great club house leader. Leadership matters a lot.

Leadership matters. FO, managerial, and club house. The Washington Nationals are an organization that doesn’t appear to have any. There have been many articles written. Here is a summary. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2018/8/2/17640406/washington-nationals-dave-martinez-kintzler-kelley-mess-rumors-leaks-trades

Team control based on age when the player signs, with the goal that players will be free agents at age 28. Replace the last 4 years of arbitration with restricted free agency (like in football) giving the controlling team the right to match the contract.

Since the 2016 season Addison Reed has 189 appearances which is 1 less than Bryan Shaw. Data is from fangraphs. He is among the the most overworked pitchers in MLB for 3 years. I think the current results while disappointing, are very predictable.

Sorting Fangraphs leaderboard on K% indicates that 21 of 30 “leaders” in K% have a negative offensive contribution to total WAR. Perhaps it is unrealistic to expect high K% players like Sano to be carrying a team. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d Furthermore, if you look Fangraphs leaderboard by WAR, only 2 of the top 60 players have a K% of 30 or more (Judge and Stanton of the Yankees at 30 and 31%, respectively). The odds are completely against Sano becoming an all-star caliber player unless he significantly improves plate discipline. Anything is possible because Eddie Rosario has been able to improve this aspect of his game. I have less confidence that Sano will take an equivalent step.

If we are going to mention our favorites we should be more complete in our assessments. Ave/OPS Hicks 0.240/0.757 Palka 0.271/0.837 Palka is one of the worst defensive outfielders in MLB. He would be mostly a DH JR Murphy 0.250/0.794 He had a HR yesterday. While the Twins could use him now. His stats are similar to Mitch Garver (Garver is better defensively) while JR Murphy provides worse defense than Kurt Suzuki. Murphy's ISO is 0.268 so he is developing some power.

Ryan Pressly has appeared in 16 of 28 games the Twins have played. He is tracking towards 92 appearances for the year. (Early season snow outs make the prediction less reliable). Nonetheless, I think Ryan Pressly is being over used and at the current rate will lose his effectiveness. The most appearances by a reliever last year was 79. Addison Reed had 77. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

There are multiple levels of reasons for this. Granite being hurt is one. But what puzzles me is seeing Grossman out in the field when Ryan LaMarre is sitting on the bench, especially late in the game. I don't have enough statistical information on LaMarre, except to say when the Twins do make a defensive substitution, LaMarre is normally in centerfield with Kepler moving to RF. That at least implies that Molitor thinks LaMarre is better defensively than Kepler. While it is easy to crap on Grossman (and he did have an error last night) Fangraphs has the revised zone rating (RZR) for Grossman and Rosario as being the same. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0

In 2014, Hughes was touching 96 at his upper range. The best I’ve seen tonight is 91. But there’s also a 1.5 mph adjustment from PitchX to Statcast. Therefore, Hughes has lost 6.5 mph on his fastball because of injuries. Perkins velocity loss was similar and he decided to retire.

The Hall of Stats (which I might add is a very good site) has Joe Mauer being inducted into that Hall of Fame. http://www.hallofstats.com/player/mauerjo01