Eris

I was a little sloppy, I should have quoted the source. It is from a Jay Jaffe's write-up on Fangraphs (about 1/3 of the way down the article). Jay wrote the article before the details of the Betts trade were known. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-price-would-offer-dodgers-more-name-recognition-than-certainty/ I have done an analysis comparing our starters from last year to Maeda. On the Twins rotation, based on 2019 numbers he is the 3rd or 4th best starter depending on which stats you wish to use. ERA ERA+ FIP WHIP WAR/100IP Berrios 3.68 124 3.85 1.223 1.65 Odorizzi 3.51 131 3.36 1.208 2.26 Pineda 4.01 114 4.02 1.158 1.71 Gibson 4.84 95 4.26 1.444 0.19 Maeda 4.04 102 3.95 1.074 0.85 Maeda by ERA is tied for 3rd with Pineda, ERA+ is 4th, FIP is 3rd, WHIP is 1st, WAR/100IP is 4th, $/WAR he is 2nd behind Berrios at 2.4 million. Note I used WAR/100 innings pitch because Maeda pitched in relief about 10 times. Edit. The data is taken from Baseball reference.

Agree with Raindog. Trading a our top pitching prospect for a number 4 starter. Doesn’t quite make sense.

Hopefully Buxton is able to play 150+ games this year. If not, it is nice to have Gilberto Celestino who is a true CF with elite defensive tools on the 40 man. I think the Twins were hurt last year by not having a true CF who could fill in for a long spell when it was needed.

Possible solutions going forward. 1). Eliminate teams ability to review plays before issuing a challenge. The video feeds for this were an enabling feature for the cheating. 2). Allow pitchers and catchers to communicate electronically. The example here is how NFL teams communicate to the QB from the sidelines. The advantage here is there would be no more signs to steal from the catcher. Disadvantage is the infielders would not know what was coming either. 3). Longer term solution is to allow electronic communication to all players. Not sure how to prevent teams from eaves dropping on this communication. I think for football games, the NFL actually runs the electronic communications. 4). Mandate a video delay from broadcaster of ~ 10 seconds. Under the current rules, what stops someone from sitting in CF with a binoculars and signalling the pitch with some object (hat, newspaper, etc).

Twice during the playoffs, The Twins had Sano at 3B and Gonzalez at 1B for at least part of the game. (Note this point was made on a previous game thread on TD). From Fangraphs Gonzalez's UZR/150 at 3B is about +19. Sano's UZR/150 is -19. Gonzalez is a significantly better at 3B. Twins explanation is that Sano is more engaged as a hitter when at 3B. If Sano can not engage himself as a hitter while playing 1B or DH, I am not sure what to think. Maybe Sano needs to find a new job. That the Twins management chose to field a weaker defensive alignment, that is on the manager/management. Watching the Cardinals vs Braves series, it is very clear who are the players who start for offense and those who are in the game for defense. In game 5, with 10 run lead, Matt Carpenter, the starting 3B because of his offense, did not even take the field.

“Rosters expand on September 1st, and both are eligible for the postseason roster.” The requirement is that both would need to be on the 40 man roster by August 31 to be eligible for the postseason roster. Currently neither are on the 40 man roster.

Through the first part of the season, Gonzalez played most of his innings at 3B. Gonzalez has the highest UZR/150 among 3B with at least 100 innings played (data is from Fangraphs). Additionally, Fangraphs ran a series of articles on playoff killers. At 1B, they identified replacing Cron as the easiest position to upgrade either via a trade or internal rearranging—such as Sano to first and Gonzalez at third. The Twins started the season with an abundance of outfielders. Buxton and Wade are hurt. Rosario’s defense has fallen of a cliff (as discussed previously on TD). Cave was known to be defensively challenged and Granite was traded.

Here is an interesting article on the Mets Edwin Diaz https://nypost.com/2019/07/24/how-mets-can-salvage-this-edwin-diaz-mess/

From the Mets, Zack Wheeler may be a more suitable trade target. His stats are slightly better than Thor’s. Because Wheeler is a free agent at the end of the season, he may be available for Gordon. The comparisons to a Chris Archer trade seem quite suitable for Syndergaard. As mentioned by other TD members above, he has a 4.55 ERA, all his peripherals are at career worsts and he is the third best pitcher on the Mets. Yet, he is treated like an Ace. So unless the Twins staff has identified a delivery flaw that can be corrected, I would stay away from Thor.

On WPA. How are errors factored into WPA. How can Adrianza have 2 errors, which essentially cost the Twins the game, and still have a positive WPA.

Also, Buxton’s throw that hit the runner (Arcia?) for the Brewers third run. Although it would have taken a great tag, I thought Astudillo played the ball poorly. He should have been in front of the runner not behind the runner.

I think it is also worthwhile to review what happened last year. The 2 trades that had the biggest impact on the playoffs were made by the Red Sox. Depending on the source, Beeks was the 7th ranked 2018 preseason Red Sox prospect and Espinal was unranked (or more accurate to say I could not find his ranking). Although hindsight is always 20/20, the Steve Pearce acquisition was listed as an afterthought on the deadline trade summary. 1B/OF Steve Pearce and cash considerations from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for minor league INF Santiago Espinal RHP Nathan Eovaldi to Red Sox; LHP Jalen Beeks to Rays https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

It is a little late posting this. I was at the game last night with my son. And had a seat several rows behind the Mets dugout. Several observations that have not been discussed. I thought Kepler has 2 very good at bats last night, with only a single to show for it. First inning, he had a 7 pitch at bat leading off the game (ending in a SO). This kind of set the tone for the Twins batters. There were alot of quality at bat against deGrom. The 4th inning he had a similarly good at bat before getting a single. Buxton looks very good. Except for the last at bat (which was poor in part because he looked like he was trying to hit a HR) he had some quality at bats. Astudillo seems a little slow to the ball at first base. Two plays in particular. The ball that glanced off Astudillo's glove and both Schoop and Gibson made a combined great play. And a double down the first base line (I don't remember the innings for either play). I thought Astudillo should have gotten to both balls. The fans in NY can be quite ruthless. After Peter Alonso made and error, some of fans were yelling "See you in Syracuse" (Mets AAA) as he was coming off the field. He is only hitting 0.385. There were other comments directed toward Cano and d'Arnaud that I can't write here. It was bone chilling cold and Citi Field. I never realized the 50 degrees could feel so cold (and I thought we had dressed properly). When the game ended at 11:45, there were only about 1000 fans left in the stands. I thought the ushers were a little too aggressive in preventing fans from moving down during the last couple to innings. There were so few fans left and it was so cold, I thought it would have been a nice gesture.

I would add a stage. Going to MLB and checking Astudillo’s rookie status. He is eligible for the rookie of the year award. This is going to be exciting. A Twin has not won Rookie of the Year since Marty Cordova in 1995.

I would add Paul DePodesta to this list. When he went to the Cleveland Browns there was some serious questions about how he could apply "moneyball" techniques to football. He is having some success as the Browns had a competitive team for the first time in many years. There was recently an article (which I can't find, it may have been is the Wall Street Journal) which indicated the DePodesta had a plan to be competitive for 10 years. And as part of this, traded current draft picks for more valuable future picks (because the NFL overvalues this years picks by about 20% compared to next years draft picks). https://clutchpoints.com/salary-cap-wizard-paul-depodesta-helped-john-dorsey-browns-create-best-contract-situation-nfl/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_DePodesta

I think the benefits of using the opener is related to how poorly a pitcher does the third time through the order. The use of the opener would mean that a pitcher can get deeper into the game without having to face the top of the order 3 times.

Several items I would add to this. The view from the bullpen is phenomenal. These are a few sequences from the bullpen before last years Twins-Red Sox game. Duffy vs. Sale. https://www.smugmug.com/gallery/n-7HHBdX Red Sox games at Jet Blue Park are almost always sold out. You need to plan ahead to watch games there. Jet Blue Park is a replica of Fenway Park with the Green Monster and it is probably worth seeing. http://www.floridagrapefruitleague.com/home/teams/redsox/ Other items around Ft. Meyers worth seeing. Lovers Key State Park (about 45 minutes from the Stadium. Closes at sundown). Beaches on Sanibel Island (also about 45 minutes, no free beach access, will need to pay for parking) Everglades City and Marco Island are 90 minutes south of Ft. Meyers. There are a number of places to rent kayaks or take an airboat tour of the Everglades. A 2 hour drive from Hammond Stadium puts you in the middle of Everglades National Park. There are plenty of tourist type attractions along rt 41/90. Here is a link (the description starts from Miami) https://www.floridarambler.com/florida-destinations/tamiami-trail-scenic-drive-everglades/

Here is discussion on Fangraphs regarding $/WAR. https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/ The Fangraphs figure is based on free agency. I think one of challenges that MLB faces is historically the salary structure underpaid young players and overpaid older players. This is changing as teams get better at estimating production declines with age. This is likely one of the reasons Harper is not signed. It is extremely difficult to estimate his value 10 years from now and teams are not willing to take that risk. The flip side of this is that teams will eventually reallocate resources towards more productive (younger) players. Teams have been slow to do so because arbitration disadvantages younger players. (And also paying younger players more puts more pressure on arbitration salaries). Kepler’s salary structure is an example of how paying more for present production can be used to reduce future risk. I would expect to see more of this type of salary structure in MLB going forward. John. Your article was a very informative write up. Thank you.

The Red Sox top 3 players produced 21 WAR in 2018. The top 4 was 25 WAR. Therefore, in order to be be competitive, the Twins will need 4 players with 5 WAR seasons or 5 players with 4 WAR seasons--plus pitching. Our top 5 players (Rosario, Kepler, Escobar, Cave and Polanco) contributed 11 WAR last year. The only way the Twins get to 20 WAR is if Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco all have career years. Is it possible, yes. Likely, No.

Here a breakdown of the Red Sox roster by acquisition. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/world-series-2018-how-the-red-sox-built-their-al-champion-roster-through-trades-free-agency-and-the-draft/ One thing that stands out is how well there draft picks picks have turned out 17 WAR contribution). In contrast, the entire Twins roster combined for about 15 WAR last year (data is from Fangraphs). https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/twins This implies that their scouting of amateur talent and/or player development is superior to the Twins.

A joy to watch. Thanks for the memories, Joe. Good luck with your future endeavors.

I understand the concept. Why stop at 1 inning. How about have the first pitcher throw 3 innings. The considerations would be: Availability of people who can throw more than 1 inning. Length of time needed for the “starter” to get ready. What I would like to see is data on the optimal use of a pitching staff. Factors would include throwing 20 pitches and being available the next day vs throwing 50 pitches and not being available for 3 days. Why not use the “throw” day of a starter to pitch 2 innings. Boston used this strategy in the playoffs with a lot of success. Not sure it can be sustained over the entire season.

Astudillo was the only person in Twins lineup last night with an OPS greater than 800. In contrast, the A’s had 6 players at that level. Fangraphs has an interesting statement attributing his 9 years of minor league performance without any MLB call up to “he doesn’t look like a baseball player”. His sprint speed is 24.7 ft/s. Only Bobby Wilson had a slower sprint speed for the Twins. He has made the most of his opportunity. I will also be rooting for him to make the team next year.

What I meant was that Byron Buxton has similar issues that Aaron Hicks had as this stage in the development, i.e, he can not hit. Hunter's relationship with Hick's may be very different than Hunter's relationship with Buxton. For one, they were teammates, vs a coach-player relationship. What clicked for Hicks may not work for Buxton or may not work for Sano or Duffy or any other player that is underperforming. Leadership through actions and behaviors increases the likelihood of winning. Leadership will help make the most of the talent that a team has.

It is more complicated than this, although I don't understand why. This is why leadership is such an intangible. There was a lot written on TD as well as others venues about the impact Torii Hunter had on Aaron Hicks. Many of the discussions and questions about batting performance for Hicks can be applied to Buxton. I have linked several of these articles below. Why was Torii Hunter able to help Aaron Hicks reach his potential, when the Twins coaches and manager could not. It is not as if they were not trying. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/540/entry-6743-maturity-experience-are-behind-aaron-hicks-reaching-his-potential/ https://nypost.com/2017/06/03/tough-love-with-that-guy-how-mentor-has-helped-aaron-hicks/ https://nypost.com/2015/11/18/torii-hunter-reveals-advice-to-immature-aaron-hicks/