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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    After his first few years, Thor has been an enigma. He has ace-like pitches but never paired that with ace like results. Since 2019, his ERA has been around 4 or worse. Part/maybe all of this is attributed to injuries as he has missed 2 full seasons with arm injuries. looking at comparisons on the Twins, it seems that he has produced somewhat similar results as Ober and Winder.
  2. Eris
    Inspired by your post I looked up Mike Cuellar’s stats. In 1969, the year he won 23 games and the Cy Young, his K/9 was 5.64. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-cuellar/1002853/stats?position=P On our current squad only Delvin Smeltzer and Joe Smith have a K/9 that is less. All data is from Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=8,d One item that would add value to the chart is the number of pitches thrown per game. As an example, Joe Ryan averages 86 pitches per game and 5.35 innings pitched per game. Joe Ryan is likely being removed because he is reaching his pitch count limits rather than because he is ineffective. Three true outcomes has brought us here. The effect is a burned out bullpen—as many posters have indicated above. Unless the game changes, a long term solution is expand rosters to add about 4 relief pitchers. The challenge with that is your 17th best pitcher isn’t as good as the 11th best pitcher.
  3. Eris
    One of the challenges here is that most of the time, the Twins SP rarely pitch more than 5 innings. With one inning relief appearances and a 13 man pitching staff (8 RP), that means RP on average would be on 81 games per season pace. Very few RP can be effective over a long period throwing at this pace. This doesn’t happen because of injuries and rotating relief staff with AAA. Also, some RP will throw occasionally more than 1 inning. The new collective bargaining arrangement limits the number of times optioned per year to 5, which limits the shuffling of RP seen in past years. The current roster construction of 13 pitchers (5 SP and 8 RP) has not adjusted to 5 inning starts and therefore bullpen management will always be a challenge and there will always be a tendency to overuse RP. To have sustainable bullpen usage, which is probably around 50 -60 appearance per year, SP will need to average 6+ innings. This is likely not going to happen as the trend is towards fewer innings pitched per GS. As the bullpen usage is unsustainable given 5 innings per start, creative solutions are going to be needed. This is not just a Twins issue, there is a roster deficiency of RP considering how modern baseball is played.
  4. Eris
    Are we perhaps giving Wes Johnson credit for the increased success of Twins pitchers, without questioning what role his coaching philosophy has had on the number of Twins pitchers on the DL—current number is 9 (not including minor leaguers on the 40 man roster).
  5. Eris
    On Matt Wallner. It is hard for me to get excited about someone who has similar to slightly worse K% in the minors than Brent Rooker. Wallner is striking out about 34% of the time this year. For comparison, Kirilloff fanned about 20% of the time in the minors. I hope Matt Wallner does well, but for now am skeptical.
  6. Eris
    Arizona plays in a division with 3 teams that have a better record than the Twins (LAD, SD, and SF). It is possible they are a better team than their record indicates. Teams generally don’t win many games giving up 7 runs or scoring less than two runs as the Twins did in the 1st and 3rd games of the series
  7. Eris
    He would not be the first player to not make it in New York. The scrutiny in NY is intense especially for those not living up to expectations. For other examples see Sonny Gray. I was down on the trade but Sanchez as surpassed my expectations.
  8. Eris
    We don’t know the vaccination status of the players who currently are on the IL with Covid. Worst case is the players on the IL with Covid are vaccinated and therefore we could be down 8 players against Toronto, plus any others who would get Covid in the interim. Edited to change 7 to 8 as I had forgotten about Ryan.
  9. Eris
    The Twins have 12 players on the IL. 9 are pitchers, 6 plays are on the 60 day IL. It does create some interesting 40 man roster management issues as each additional player added means one more player that can not be protected. Therefore the Twins will likely add AAAA type pitchers. In addition, there are a number of prospects with significant innings limitations. It would be useful to construct a 40 man roster for next year. as a means of comparison, here are some select IL for a few teams. LAD 9 Houston 4 Toronto 2 Data is from https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/current-player/toronto-blue-jays/
  10. Eris
    Details are linked below for anyone wanting more info. https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-the-real-reason-mets-failed-to-trade-for-padres-eric-hosmer-before-start-of-2022-season/amp/
  11. Eris
    The criteria I believe they use is rookie eligibility. Celestino had 62 PA last year so he qualifies by that criteria. Time on the active roster is also considered (which I don’t know how to determine other than to indicate he wasn’t up that long). Rookie Eligibility Definition A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons): • 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. • 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List). A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists.
  12. Eris
    I don’t understand all of the stats but I read what I understand. Isn’t the eye test the reason Derek Jeter won 5 gold gloves while accumulating -DRS in 4 of those seasons. How do you refute this without statistics. Or that Kent Hrbeck or Doug M deserved gold gloves. https://www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2021/11/20/derek-jeter-carlos-correas-golden-glove-comments-it-doesnt-warrant-a-response I was certainly surprised that Royce Lewis did as well as he did. For several years we have been reading scouting reports (from Keith Law and others) that indicated that Lewis had a hole in his swing and was likely not an MLB shortstop. My reading of this article is that Lewis received too many good pitches to hit, (perhaps because of the above mentioned hole in his swing) and I look forward to Lewis making the adjustments to either hitting or laying off breaking balls just off the zone.
  13. Eris
    Talking about lighting a fire under the team. Amazing what happens when every player who has played worse than Royce Lewis realizes that they may be sent down or cut. Do players actually think in these terms
  14. Eris
    The one stat that is most important is the W-L of the team when Byron Buxton is playing. There have been some variations of this stat on the other Buxton threads. https://calltothepen.com/2021/09/25/importance-byron-buxton-minnesota-twins/amp/
  15. Eris
    It is a great title. Good job at such a late hour of the day.
  16. Eris
    If you were to subtract of the 5 games Buxton mixed following his knee injury the figure would be 23/30, which equates to 124 games for the season.
  17. Eris
    The 36.4 K% is just appalling. He is right down there with Joey Gallo in terms of MLB career worst K%. This year might be the end of the line for both of them. i am somewhat surprised he has not been put on the 60 day DL, as the Twins are down to there last available bat on the 40 man roster.
  18. Eris
    It has been posted by D Park that Carlos Correa’s finger is broken
  19. Eris
    Seeing Duran’s splitter get crushed reminded me of Jim Hoey. He too had a high octane FB but hitters would tee off on his splitter.
  20. Eris
    Here in NJ, cases are above where they were in February when the Omicron variant first swept the country. Being that MLB no longer tests on a daily basis and that people are infectious 1 to 2 days before showing symptoms, there is the potential to have more than a few players infected. if I am reading this article correctly, the Covid IL and replacement policy is the same as last year, including the ability to have a taxi squad. As far as I know, the Twins do not currently have a taxi squad, is this correct. https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-03-16/mlb-eliminates-regular-covid-19-testing?_amp=true
  21. Eris
    I think Max Kepler would be the backup 1B on the roster. Although he has not had many innings there in the majors, he did spend some time at that position while in the minor leagues.
  22. Eris
    It does make you wonder what the Rays were thinking. His minor league numbers look good. His negatives are that he only had two pitches and at 25 years he is a little old for a prospect. The general MLB philosophy is that someone with 2 pitches can only be a reliever and therefore expendable in a trade. I am wondering what Wes Johnson’s contributions to his success are. Also, if memory serves me correctly, Brad Radke only had 2 pitches
  23. Eris
    I feel that I should have placed more of a premium on finding a spouse who loved baseball back when I was dating. In fairness, I feel that my spouse misrepresented herself. She went to more baseball games with me while we were dating than she has in the 30 years we have been married.
  24. Eris
    On Celestino. While I agree that he needs to play every day for his development. He provides the Twins with a lot of defensive flexibility. He has appeared in 4 of the last 6 games although once as a PR. He has enabled the Twins to PH for for their outfielders (mostly Garlick and Larnach, sometimes Kepler) late in the game to get more favorable match ups at the plate and to upgrade their outfield defense over Larnach and Garlick. Normally a team would only carry one defensive forth outfielder. This is a role occupied by both Gordon and Celestino. When the roster contracts, Celestino will likely be sent down.
  25. Eris
    I don’t know much about how WPA is determined. Surprised that Pagan had the second highest WPA last night. I would have given him a negative WPA for the nail biter he created by issuing 2 BB and for the 2 or 3 balls in the dirt with the bases loaded. Had he pitched a clean 9th, would his WPA have been the same.
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