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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    I don’t think the Twins should make a play for him at this point. Maybe 35 million per on a 2-3 year contract if it comes to that. For the top 10 SS by WAR, CC had the worst defense this year. (Data is from fangraphs). I also realize that this year was a sharp decline in defense for CC from 2018 - 2021 seasons and I am not sure why. I would much rather they spend the $ on pitching.
  2. Eris
    Larnach reminds me of Michael Cuddyer. Not the most fleet of foot, but what a cannon. Of the 3, he is the only one with positive defensive value this year (data from Fangraphs). Kirilloff. If he recovers from his wrist injuries/surgeries, his best position is first base. I think he could be an all-star caliber / gold glove first baseman. After a rough start Miranda has done nicely at first. How would he do at third. Wallner. Hard for me to get super excited about someone who has averaged greater than 30% K rate in the minors although he did improve this year to 27% in AAA. It looks like he is making the most of his opportunity in the big leagues and it is too bad he wasn’t called up sooner as he is clearly seems to belong in the majors. His September play has earned him a spot on the team next year. I am assuming his current K rate will improve.
  3. Eris
    I think in general this thread is too harsh on Max Kepler. He has contributed 2 WAR while playing in slightly more than 2/3 of the games (115). 2.0 WAR is currently 4th on the Twins team. His season was interrupted by a broken toe from a HBP and ended with a wrist injury). 1 WAR is worth about 8 million, so his value was about 2x his contract. Had he played a full season he would have had about 2.5 WAR. (Just prorating his WAR to 150 games). I thought he had made progress earlier in the season by hitting more to the opposite field. This was his worst offensive season in the big leagues, but his second best defensive season. Not sure how much his injuries contributed to his offensive swoon after the all-star break. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/stats?position=OF
  4. Eris
    A few comments. In the Byron Buxton era, the Twins have always had a significantly worse record when he wasn’t playing. What makes this run worse is that half the team (or more) are on the IL. I lack awareness of the extent of Buxton’s early season knee injury. If he would have been 100% with a month on the IL, then he should have been on the IL. https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-exits-with-injury-after-slide There have been a number of players injured sliding into bases. With investment that teams have in these players, developing more forgiving bases seems like a good idea.
  5. Eris
    Baltimore is ahead of the Twins in the wild card standings. Let that sink in for a few minutes. Yes, those hapless Orioles who play in the toughest division in the AL and who traded their all-star closer to our Twins. They also traded one of their better players, Trey Mancini, to the Astros. https://calltothepen.com/2022/08/04/baltimore-orioles-sell-season/amp/
  6. Eris
    What does giving away 3-4 outs/game from a catcher include. Does this include pitch calling. I find this hard to comprehend. It is like having an error every other inning that doesn’t show up in the box score. I know what giving away 4 outs / game at first base entails.
  7. Eris
    The greatest weakness is having SP that can only go 4 or 5 innings as this means that most RP will run out of gas
  8. Eris
    There aspects of Pagan that are quite good. He has 55 SO in 38 IP (13K/9). This is slightly better than Duran’s 61 SO in 48 IP (11.4K/9). I am not sure all the reasons this doesn’t translate into results. Too many BB and too many balls that are crushed when he is ahead in the count are some of his issues. Poor command and too predictable pitching selection also contribute. It will be interesting to see if Pagan improves with Leon behind the plate. data is from Fangraphs.
  9. Eris
    A W is W, but I found it undesirable that we needed to use our “A” bullpen to secure a series win against one of the worst teams in the league and then we surrender a very winnable game by marching out the “B” bullpen squad against Toronto.
  10. Eris
    While the front offices’ failure to address the bullpen this past off season deserves some criticism, in my view the real problem is the number of pitchers on the injured reserve list. It is hard to plan for this many pitchers being out. Have the Twins been unlucky or is their pitching philosophy/approach of adding velocity a key factor in causing these injuries?
  11. Eris
    After his first few years, Thor has been an enigma. He has ace-like pitches but never paired that with ace like results. Since 2019, his ERA has been around 4 or worse. Part/maybe all of this is attributed to injuries as he has missed 2 full seasons with arm injuries. looking at comparisons on the Twins, it seems that he has produced somewhat similar results as Ober and Winder.
  12. Eris
    Inspired by your post I looked up Mike Cuellar’s stats. In 1969, the year he won 23 games and the Cy Young, his K/9 was 5.64. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-cuellar/1002853/stats?position=P On our current squad only Delvin Smeltzer and Joe Smith have a K/9 that is less. All data is from Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=8,d One item that would add value to the chart is the number of pitches thrown per game. As an example, Joe Ryan averages 86 pitches per game and 5.35 innings pitched per game. Joe Ryan is likely being removed because he is reaching his pitch count limits rather than because he is ineffective. Three true outcomes has brought us here. The effect is a burned out bullpen—as many posters have indicated above. Unless the game changes, a long term solution is expand rosters to add about 4 relief pitchers. The challenge with that is your 17th best pitcher isn’t as good as the 11th best pitcher.
  13. Eris
    One of the challenges here is that most of the time, the Twins SP rarely pitch more than 5 innings. With one inning relief appearances and a 13 man pitching staff (8 RP), that means RP on average would be on 81 games per season pace. Very few RP can be effective over a long period throwing at this pace. This doesn’t happen because of injuries and rotating relief staff with AAA. Also, some RP will throw occasionally more than 1 inning. The new collective bargaining arrangement limits the number of times optioned per year to 5, which limits the shuffling of RP seen in past years. The current roster construction of 13 pitchers (5 SP and 8 RP) has not adjusted to 5 inning starts and therefore bullpen management will always be a challenge and there will always be a tendency to overuse RP. To have sustainable bullpen usage, which is probably around 50 -60 appearance per year, SP will need to average 6+ innings. This is likely not going to happen as the trend is towards fewer innings pitched per GS. As the bullpen usage is unsustainable given 5 innings per start, creative solutions are going to be needed. This is not just a Twins issue, there is a roster deficiency of RP considering how modern baseball is played.
  14. Eris
    Are we perhaps giving Wes Johnson credit for the increased success of Twins pitchers, without questioning what role his coaching philosophy has had on the number of Twins pitchers on the DL—current number is 9 (not including minor leaguers on the 40 man roster).
  15. Eris
    On Matt Wallner. It is hard for me to get excited about someone who has similar to slightly worse K% in the minors than Brent Rooker. Wallner is striking out about 34% of the time this year. For comparison, Kirilloff fanned about 20% of the time in the minors. I hope Matt Wallner does well, but for now am skeptical.
  16. Eris
    Arizona plays in a division with 3 teams that have a better record than the Twins (LAD, SD, and SF). It is possible they are a better team than their record indicates. Teams generally don’t win many games giving up 7 runs or scoring less than two runs as the Twins did in the 1st and 3rd games of the series
  17. Eris
    He would not be the first player to not make it in New York. The scrutiny in NY is intense especially for those not living up to expectations. For other examples see Sonny Gray. I was down on the trade but Sanchez as surpassed my expectations.
  18. Eris
    We don’t know the vaccination status of the players who currently are on the IL with Covid. Worst case is the players on the IL with Covid are vaccinated and therefore we could be down 8 players against Toronto, plus any others who would get Covid in the interim. Edited to change 7 to 8 as I had forgotten about Ryan.
  19. Eris
    The Twins have 12 players on the IL. 9 are pitchers, 6 plays are on the 60 day IL. It does create some interesting 40 man roster management issues as each additional player added means one more player that can not be protected. Therefore the Twins will likely add AAAA type pitchers. In addition, there are a number of prospects with significant innings limitations. It would be useful to construct a 40 man roster for next year. as a means of comparison, here are some select IL for a few teams. LAD 9 Houston 4 Toronto 2 Data is from https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/current-player/toronto-blue-jays/
  20. Eris
    Details are linked below for anyone wanting more info. https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-the-real-reason-mets-failed-to-trade-for-padres-eric-hosmer-before-start-of-2022-season/amp/
  21. Eris
    The criteria I believe they use is rookie eligibility. Celestino had 62 PA last year so he qualifies by that criteria. Time on the active roster is also considered (which I don’t know how to determine other than to indicate he wasn’t up that long). Rookie Eligibility Definition A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons): • 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. • 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List). A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists.
  22. Eris
    I don’t understand all of the stats but I read what I understand. Isn’t the eye test the reason Derek Jeter won 5 gold gloves while accumulating -DRS in 4 of those seasons. How do you refute this without statistics. Or that Kent Hrbeck or Doug M deserved gold gloves. https://www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2021/11/20/derek-jeter-carlos-correas-golden-glove-comments-it-doesnt-warrant-a-response I was certainly surprised that Royce Lewis did as well as he did. For several years we have been reading scouting reports (from Keith Law and others) that indicated that Lewis had a hole in his swing and was likely not an MLB shortstop. My reading of this article is that Lewis received too many good pitches to hit, (perhaps because of the above mentioned hole in his swing) and I look forward to Lewis making the adjustments to either hitting or laying off breaking balls just off the zone.
  23. Eris
    Talking about lighting a fire under the team. Amazing what happens when every player who has played worse than Royce Lewis realizes that they may be sent down or cut. Do players actually think in these terms
  24. Eris
    The one stat that is most important is the W-L of the team when Byron Buxton is playing. There have been some variations of this stat on the other Buxton threads. https://calltothepen.com/2021/09/25/importance-byron-buxton-minnesota-twins/amp/
  25. Eris
    It is a great title. Good job at such a late hour of the day.
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