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On Wednesday we got news that two months after acquiring him, Chris Paddack had undergone the 2nd Tommy John surgery of his career. Despite the obvious disappointment, the book on this trade is far from written. It was always fair to question trading away Taylor Rogers before a season in which the Twins were expected to compete. Chris Paddack did his part to quiet those worries through his first four starts, pitching to a sub 4.00 ERA and looking like a solid mid-rotation, arm who was controlled for three years. Now that he’s certain to miss the remainder of 2022 however, frustrations with the trade have begun to boil over again. It’s worth considering however that several pieces of this trade have yet to play out. The full details of the trade involved the Twins shipping out Rogers and Brent Rooker and receiving Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and eventually player to be named later Brayan Medina. While the Twins have used Pagán in high leverage despite his tightrope act, the backbone of the trade was Rogers for Paddack. Admittedly this comparison is heavily skewed in the Padres favor, at least in the short term as we’re left with Pagan vs Rogers. Looking at the full picture however, we have a ways to go before declaring this trade a disaster. The mainstream belief at this point is the Twins traded their fan-favorite invaluable relief arm for five starts of Chris Paddack. What people seem to have missed is that in acquiring Paddack, the Twins were actually acquiring his services through 2024. This fact doesn’t help them currently, but it provides plenty of time for the right-hander to make good on the Twins attempt to acquire a valuable starting pitcher. Tommy John is still a dreaded announcement in baseball, but it’s not the boogeyman it once was. Even for players who have required it multiple times as Chris Paddack has, full recoveries have become the norm. This list includes Nate Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger, Drew Rasmussen, and many more. In addition to the overall effectiveness of the procedure, more and more cases have emerged where the pitcher returns in a much shorter time than what would have been expected even just a few years ago. Look no further than the Twins own Blayne Enlow in the minors who’s back on the mound after tearing his UCL about 10 months ago. In Paddack’s case, no timeline has been announced yet. The word on the street however is the Twins almost exclusively defer to a new procedure when it comes to their players which expects a 9-12 month recovery rather than the traditional 12-18. We may not have anything concrete yet, but it’s entirely possible that Chris Paddack is still able to return for a good chunk of 2023 and all of 2024. The context of the trade in which the Twins are now without the starting pitcher they wanted and without their best bullpen arm isn’t great, but in the aggregate, this trade still has the potential to be lopsided in their favor when all is said and done. Despite a high walk rate which we hope Pagán will iron out, he appears to have improved in multiple areas including strikeouts and limiting hard contact, and he’s controlled for two years. Paddack looked to have made improvements prior to injury that he could hopefully continue building off when once again healthy. Make no mistake, I loved the value of this deal at the time it was announced and personally I’d hit the “undo” button at this point. Any time a player is acquired who almost immediately loses their entire season to injury, it’s safe to say things didn’t go your way. It’s also entirely fair to question why the Twins were even engaging in talks for a pitcher with a well known partially torn UCL. That being said, there is no “undo” button. There’s nothing wrong with saying this trade is bad, but such statements have to include an understanding that we’re far from done here. If Paddack comes back and provides a year and a half of the performance he showed in his first few starts, the Twins still nailed this one overall, even if it may cost them in 2022. So what do you think? Is there still the potential we look back at some point and say the Twins won this trade? Without Rogers for this year does it even matter? Let us know below. — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins had a player to be named later included in the trade for Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker. On Thursday, Minnesota announced the prospect as right-handed pitcher Brayan Medina. It can certainly be intriguing when a trade includes a player to be named later. Jeremy tried to identify which player might be included in the deal, which can be a tough task. Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan were the first two pieces of the trade, but here’s a little about prospect the team just added to the deal. Brayan Medina was considered the top Venezuelan pitching prospect when the 2019 international signing period opened. San Diego signed him for $700,000, and he was set to make his debut during the 2020 season. Unfortunately, the pandemic canceled the 2020 season and pushed his pro debut to the 2021 season. Last year, the 18-year-old started in the Dominican Summer League. In 28 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.71 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 42-to-21 strikeout to walk ratio. Medina’s last three appearances came in the Arizona Complex League, where he struggled in limited action. He allowed four earned runs in two of his appearances as he surrendered three home runs. On a positive note, he struck out seven batters in five innings. Still a teenager, Medina has room to add to his 6-foot-1, 180-pound frame, which may increase his velocity in the years ahead. He currently has a three-pitch mix, including a fastball, slider, and changeup. According to MLB Pipeline, his fastball grades as a 60 as it sits in the mid-90s, but he can occasionally pump it up into the high-90s. His slider is his best secondary pitch as it currently grades as a 55, which is above average. His changeup has shown the most improvement since he signed and currently grades as a 50. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 14th best Padres prospect. FanGraphs isn’t relatively as high on Medina as MLB Pipeline as they ranked him as San Diego’s 29th best prospect. They grade his fastball as a 45 with a future grade of 55. FanGraphs identifies his best secondary pitch as a curveball instead of a slider, but some of that is due to his vertical slot delivery. His curveball currently grades as a 45 with a future grade of 55. Both of these pitches would rank as above average. One of his most significant issues last season was a high walk rate, as he surrendered 24 walks in just under 34 innings. Some of this comes from a violent delivery, but it can also be attributed to the limited amount of innings he has accumulated as a professional. His release point is from a vertical slot, which helps his secondary pitches to be more effective. As a player to be named later, Medina has plenty of potential. His ceiling looks like a mid-rotation starter, but his top two pitches also make him an intriguing bullpen option. In the Twins system, he’d likely rank in the back half of the team’s top-30 prospects. What do you think about Medina’s scouting reports? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article