Eris

There was some discussion of Vargas' fourth option year in the forum linked below. Summarizing the discussion is that Vargas failed to meet the 90 day requirement on an active MiLB roster needed to receive credit for a year of service. Most likely this is related to his suspension for violating MLB drug policy. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24320-berardino-falvey-on-mauer-polanco-sano-vargas-more/

I think a better comparison would be Johan Santana. He was an elite pitcher when his fastball was near 95. As his velocity dropped, so did his K%. He was still effective, but no longer elite. De Leon's fastball (~ 92) is probably at the lower end of the effectiveness spectrum. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P#advanced http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=755&position=P&pitch=FA http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2010/06/santana_must_made_adjustments.html

I think it demonstrates if we incentivize a certain skill set, people will go out and try to achieve that skill set. In this case, being able to throw a mid-90's fastball is a path to the majors. In the area that I live (northern NJ), there is a whole industry devoted to teaching young children the mechanics needed to throw hard. It is almost impossible for a player to be a high school pitcher without his parents spending thousands of dollars in these coaching / player development activities. At a local DIII school where I teach, pitchers with low 90's fastballs ride the pine. There is a significant downside to the velocity arms race. Many teenagers, MiLB and MLB players with arm injuries. On the Mets team, 4 of their 6 stud pitchers (Harvey, deGrom, Matz, and Wheeler) have had TJ surgery. What the current situation also demonstrates is given enough exposure and practice, hitters can catch up to 100 mph pitches, just like they learned to hit sliders. While I think the velocity arms race is over done, the data does support that higher velocity generates more K's. Arms are now considered expendable. Until that changes, the velocity arms race will continue.

I agree. For sports franchises it is all about PR. Do we really want sports programs (pro, college, Olympics, etc.) to conduct extra-judicial processes that extend beyond taking performance enhancing drugs? I think the long term effect of that would be bad. (In both the Chapman and Brown cases, prosecutors declined to file charges and the judge dismissed charges against Ray Rice) From my perspective, the question is do we as a society have different sets of rules for "athletes" and other "important" people that contributes to domestic violence. Unfortunately, I think the answer is yes. I think we as a society tend to overlook the bad behavior of young male athletes and this results in a lost opportunity to correct violent and other forms of undesirable behavior when people are young. I don't really have any data to support this but it is just what I think. I think also that there is a culture in some organizations (sports, military, businesses) that condones this behavior. CNN carried an article about how the outcome of the Brock Turner case is very common. He served 3 months for the sexual assault of an unconscious person. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/02/us/brock-turner-college-athletes-sentence/ Bill Cosby. Women began reporting inappropriate behavior about 15 years ago. In some cases with witnesses. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/31/bill-cosby-sexual-abuse-claims-57-women-dates-public-accusations Jerry Sandusky. Penn State overlooks the bad behavior of an assistant football coach. http://www.cbsnews.com/feature/the-penn-state-scandal/ Note also that sexual assault incidences are also higher in the military: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/6/doubts-on-militarys-sex-assault-stats-as-numbers-f/ There was an article written about Gary Carter when he died. What I remember about the article is how his team mates would make fun of him because he was faithful to his spouse and didn't go out drinking after the games. This was in 1986. http://www.northjersey.com/story-archives/klapisch-gary-carter-inspired-us-on-and-off-the-field-1.1212257

Just to be clear, I am not the author of the study quoted. The author information is found here. http://asr.sagepub.com/content/72/5/705.short However, you raised an interesting question, some of which is discussed in the paper referenced and linked below: The short answer is yes. Among identical twins, those who played football are 37% more likely to self-report being involved in violence. The following is copied from the 13th page (p798) of the referenced document. "Findings Presented in Table 1 are the results from the logistic regression analysis where the violence indicator variable is used as the dependent variable and the other variables are used as covariates. Most important was the coefficient (i.e., the odds ratio) for the football participation variable. As shown in the table, the odds ratio was positive and statistically significant. The odds ratio revealed that respondents who were involved in football were 37% more likely to report being involved in violence than those who did not play football." "Exploring the Relationship Between Violent Behavior and Participation in Football During Adolescence: Findings From a Sample of Sibling Pairs: Abstract: http://yas.sagepub.com/content/48/6/786.abstract Full text download: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388773_Exploring_the_Relationship_Between_Violent_Behavior_and_Participation_in_Football_During_Adolescence_Findings_From_a_Sample_of_Sibling_Pairs

There has been a lot of academic work on this topic since the 1990's. If you go to scholar.google.com and search "athletes and violence against women" You will find plenty of articles. I have posted some links below. The positive is that our society is beginning to address this issue although we have a very long way to go. At the risk of over simplification, there are several factors involved. 1). Men who play violent sports are more likely to be involved in domestic violence. 2). Domestic violence/abuse tends to be overlooked in students athletes at a young age and in college (Brock Turner is an example). 3). Domestic violence/abuse also tends to be overlooked in other rich, famous, powerful people. Think of the movie stars (Bill Crosby) and politicians that have been involved in domestic abuse. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=athletes+and+violence+against+women&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=&oq=athletes+and+violence http://www.ayfcoaching.com/AcuCustom/Sitename/Documents/DocumentItem/4488.pdf Unnecessary roughness? School sports, peer networks, and male adolescent violence. http://asr.sagepub.com/content/72/5/705.short This article examines the extent to which participation in high school interscholastic sports contributes to male violence. Deriving competing hypotheses from social control, social learning, and masculinity theories, I use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to test if (1) type of sport and (2) peer athletic participation, contribute to the risks of male serious fighting. Contrary to social control expectations, analyses suggest that athletic involvement fails to inhibit male violence. Moreover, there is a strong relationship between contact sports and violence. Football players and wrestlers, as opposed to baseball, basketball, tennis, and other athletes, are significantly more likely than nonathletic males to be involved in a serious fight. Additionally, the direct effect of football is explained by the football participation of individuals' peers. Males whose friends play football are more likely to fight than other males, supporting perspectives that emphasize peer contexts as important mediators. Overall, findings are consistent with the expectations of social learning and masculinity arguments. The theoretical and policy implications of these results are discussed.

I would keep Stuart Turner. Good defensive catcher are premium and he would likely be lost to Rule 5. I agree about Centeno. John Ryan Murphy would be on the bubble. Palka, Walker, Park, and I might add Sano to this list are all offensive first players with high K%. I would trade 2 of them. Sano might have the most value to trade, albeit diminished from his rookie year. I would keep Vielma and probably let both Escobar and D. Santana go. A utility infielder should be able to play great defense. I would not protect Grossman, He was responsibe for -21 DRS. Would either Walker or Palka be that bad?

This is a nice thought. The Twins really need a great SS. Of the 10 teams (including wild card) that made the playoffs this year only the Nationals (19) and the Rangers (16) did not have a top ten SS by WAR. Data from fangraphs. Of the 4 teams that played / are playing in the LCS, Seager (1), Lindor (3), Russell (7) and Tulowitzki (10). Currently the Braves do not have a decent 2B. Jace Peterson had 0 WAR and ranks near the bottom on NL 2B in defensive metrics. Most likely the Braves will either play Albies or Swanson at 2B depending on who wins the SS position. The Yankees also have 2 SS on MLB top SS prospect list. BTW, Albies fractured his throwing elbow about 1 month ago. Not sure what his recovery time is. They do need a better 2B. In the pre-draft analysis for 2017, the top SS are high schoolers is Jayson Gonzalez and Mark Vientos which minor league baseball have ranked at 20 and 28th respectively. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/8/14/12477008/2017-mlb-draft-prospect-an-early-top-50 There is one more spring of baseball so some of this can change. Short analysis is that the Twins won't solve there SS need in this years draft.

This article made me feel quite depressed for the following reasons. Polanco is one of the Twins more consistent young hitters. Jorge Polanco was first placed on the Twins 40 man roster in the fall of 2013 and was ranked in the top 100 MLB prospects in 2016 (97th after Buxton, Kepler and Gordon as position players). He was signed in 2009 and the Twins as an organization have invested 7 years into his development. The Twins finished in last in all of MLB by about 10 games and yet we don't really have a place on the roster for Polanco because his defense is questionable. The good news is that he is only 23. However, it seems to me that the Twins should have resolved this situation years ago. Resolution has many forms. Accept his defensive shortcomings and play him at SS (but he played 2B most recently in the minors). Trade Dozier, Trade Polanco. But the Twins organization did none of these. It indicates an extreme lack of planning in player development in the organization.

On Fangraphs, the Twins have -50 DRS. The Cubs are at the top of that category with +79 DRS. Although that is bad, most of the damage is caused by just a few players. Grossman -19 Sano -12 D. Santana -10 Nunez -9 Suzuki -6 Polanco -5 Removing the worst 4 players from defense would get the Twins to 0 DRS (which I think is league average). Our projected outfield for next year of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all have positive defensive runs saved.

Although it is a SSS, Park is likely the best defensive first baseman among the likely candidates (Mauer, Vargas, Park, and we should probably add Sano to this list).

Early on in the process a list (put together by national media types) of top candidates included Kim Ng. I am somewhat disappointed that her name has not been mentioned recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Ng http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/majorleaguebaseball/al-east/boston-red-sox/kim-ng-for-red-sox-gm/ I thought she was considered for the Padres and Red Sox GM positions in the past but I can not find any information on that.

Here is an analysis of the Dickey - Syndergaard trade. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/23/9589100/dickey-mets-blue-jays-war-trade-syndergaard-darnaud The trade has the potential to be as bad as Ramos and then Span to Washington for Capp and then Meyer. These trades with Washington provided a 20 WAR differential in favor of the Nationals. The Dickey - Syndergaard trade is a 10 WAR benefit towards the Mets with several years of control left for the Mets. I would rather the future Twins follow the Cardinals model of developing through a strong robust farm system rather than that which AA brought to the Jays.

From my perspective, at all levels, most/all of the power is in the hands of the manager. Obviously, for whatever reason, common sense has failed in many levels / organizations. Therefore, at most levels there needs to be some serious discussion about misuse / over use of players. I live in NJ, in high school there are no pitch limits. There are many examples of high school kids throwing 120 pitches a game. It is abuse and needs to stop. I realize the pitch limits is a very controversial topic. All we really know right now is that Tommy John surgeries are on the rise and have become a significant part of the game. (My son's high school team had 2 players with Tommy John). From the Bergen Record: Rob Kaminsky, the former St. Joseph ace and the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2013 first-round pick, is a strong supporter of the new policy. The left-hander, now pitching for Class AA Akron, a Cleveland Indians’ affiliate, called the change “a good step.” “Seeing high school coaches let kids throw 100-plus pitches on short rest is borderline abuse,” Kaminsky said. “You don’t see that even happen in the minor leagues. It’s something that should be addressed, and quite frankly, should have been addressed years ago. (source: http://blogs.northjersey.com/varsity-aces/new-pitch-count-limits-applauded-by-some-ripped-by-others-even-before-njsiaa-devises-magic-number-1.1644885) Even at the major league level there are managers who are less careful than others in managing pitchers. Kerry Woods probably lost millions because of Dusty Baker's decision to have him pitch on a cold windy day in Chicago. Earlier this year there was a lot of discussion on Met fan blogs concerning whether or not Terry Collins should be fired. The argument for him being fired that he had misused his bullpen to the extent that a number of them were ineffective. If we had pitch limits across many levels, but especially in high school, more people would be given the opportunity and therefore learn how to pitch. This should be extended to every non-professional league. In the short term, the quality of pitching would decrease, but in the long term there would be more pitchers. One other issue that is related. Why is the Amateur Baseball association scheduling double headers, especially during playoffs. That also contributes to putting more pressure on coaches to over use players.

I was always under the impression that the decision to move May to the bullpen was based along the lines that May only was effective for 5 innings. Using Fangraphs (2013-2015), as a starter, May started 25 games was 7-14, with at 5.61 ERA and averaged 5.06 innings/game. Compare to Mike Pelfrey started 64 games was 11-27, had a 4.94 ERA and averaged 5.33 innings/game. Tyler Duffy, 29 games, 12-9, 4.90 ERA, 5.49 innings/game. Ricky Nolasco 56 games, 15-22, 5.39 ERA and averaged 5.70 innings/game. Based on this information, May was one of the least effect starting pitchers, despite having the highest K/9 on the staff (Berrios is tracking slightly better in K/9). More importantly, May gave the least innings as a starter. I think we can all agree that Nolasco and Pelfrey did not have a very successful Twins career, yet their numbers are better than Mays and they got deeper into the game (although Pelfrey just barely). Where I agree with the discussion on this board is the May should have been stretched out especially given this dreadful year. Because he has the stuff to be a very good pitcher, he needs to get deeper into the game and in a lost year this could have been worked on.

Some of these interpretations are skewed by one or two players. I am not sure how you would account for that because it probably does not reflect on the long term abilities of the scouting department. Examples are the Angels drafting Mike Trout. Washington stands out for being able to draft 2 years in a row Harper and then Strausburg. These were no brainer picks. Almost any GM would have taken those two. You would expect the data for the Twins to be bad. We have not drafted an MVP or CY candidate since Mauer and Morneau. Too many first round picks that did not make it. Some were total busts.

Every player, the manager, even the interim GM is playing for a position next year or the following years or for more $$ in arbitration. Don't expect any of them to go out and not try their best.

I think it is very unfortunate the both Mauer and Morneau had their careers severely impacted by concussions. We could also add Corie Koskie to this list. How many other teams in MLB have had their 2 best players impacted in this manner. The Twins, their fans, and all baseball were robbed of two very good players in their prime. This is just plain unlucky and it not necessary to blame anyone. Morneau was was one of my favorite players. I am saddened by what happened. I will root for him wherever he plays. We can not do anything about the unlucky part. However, there is a substantial failure to plan. "Total system failure" is correct. They include: Trading away Wilson Ramos for 1 good year of Capps without have an alternative MLB capable catcher in the system. Failure to draft a develop any good starting pitchers since Brad Radke. Failure to draft/trade/sign as FA a decent shortstop since Christian Guzman. Trading away Denard Span for someone they have not been able to develop. And the number of prospects who spend time on the 25 man roster but don't know the fundamentals of baseball. Hopefully, these are what Terry Ryan is being held accountable for and there should also be plenty of coaches and scouts in the system being asked about their contributions to to "total system failure."

One of the challenges in signing Ian Desmond was his qualifying offer. The Rangers gave up the 19th overall pick in this years draft for Desmond. As only the top 10 slots are protected, the Twins would have lost their 1st round pick (15th overall, used to draft Alex Kirilloff). There are many problems with the qualify offer. As it relates to Ian Desmond, only a team that was 1 or 2 players away from competing for a World Series run would / should give up a first round pick. From this perspective the Rangers made a wise choice. From the Twins perspective, with Ian Desmond, they would have maybe the 3rd or 4th worst record in baseball rather than the worst. An improvement from the current dreadful situation, but not enough to justify losing a first round selection. The Rangers can "recoup" their lost pick by making Desmond a qualifying offer after this season, but then must be prepared to pay him close to $16 million.

Peak value is often only determined in hindsight. In hindsight, Plouffe should have been moved at the trade deadline last summer when the Twins were in the middle of a pennant race (or at least thought they were). The value this past winter for 3rd basemen was not very good. For example, look at what the Reds got in return for Todd Frazier, someone who is a much better offensive and defensive player than Plouffe. Frazier was also available at the trade deadline last summer and he wasn't moved, presumably because the Reds where not happy with what offered. The Mets need at 3rd baseman. It was reported that they made inquiries about Danny Valencia (but not Plouffe). If the Twins put Plouffe on waivers, would he clear waivers?

Learning how to take quality at bats should be a requirement at the major league level. For whatever reason, Arcia was not able to make the adjustments necessary to improve his hitting. It is about time that the Twins either send to the minors or release players who are not willing or able to do this.

I would extend the timeline to 1988 and include Tom Herr as the worst 2B and possible the worst Twin of all time. His stats were much better than I remember them BA 263, OPS 679 in 89 games. However, he had a very negative attitude and clearly did not want to play in Minnesota and was not shy about voicing his opinion about this.

Most of this (maybe all of this) is on Meyer. He has two great pitches, if he could consistently throw strikes with both pitches he would be a starter. If he can only throw his fastball for a strike, he might not even make it as a reliever. Compare Meyer to Berrios. Meyer, when he is on, has better stuff than Berrios. What Berrios has though is the ability to consistently throw 3 pitches for strike. Because of his control, Berrios will be a much better pitcher. (A comparison between Duffy and Meyer might be better because both essentially have only 2 pitches)

This means that some of the Twins players are way over matched because they lack plate discipline (Rosario) or can't hit a curveball (Buxton). At some point they need to figure this out or they will be learning this in Rochester. My list to send down would be Rosario, Buxton and Park, in that order. I would have the least amount a patience with Rosario, in part because he has spent most of last year in the majors. I would give Buxton about another month. The difficulty for the Twins is that unless one of Rosario, Buxton or Kepler starts playing well, they do not have many options. If Kepler plays well, I would be inclined to send Rosario down. This was a nice spreadsheet. Simple and to the point and highlighting a potentially major issue for the Twins.

Rosario is a gamer. He plays the game right. That is why Molitor likes him. He has one blemish on his record for substance violation (marijuana?) Why would we want to trade some like this? He should be a fixture in the Twins outfield for years. The Sano experiment is just that. An experiment and in the end Sano will be at first or a DH, the present log jam is only temporary. I look forward to a Twins outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.