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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    Rather disappointing trade. Won’t really improve the team this year and we are not saving $$$. Might improve the team 2 or 3 years from now and we have a RH hitting outfielder to go with our excess of LH hitting outfielders.
  2. Eris
    I have downloaded the 2023 MLB data from Fangraphs and compared a number of traditional parameters to RE24 (run expectancy of 24 possible batting scenarios). As RE24 is a cumulative stat, I have adjusted RE24 to 100 PA. The minimum PA was 200. There were 362 batters that had >= 200 PA. RE24 is a good metric to use as takes into consideration the in-game situation of an at bat comparing the outcome to the run expectancy. I treated the data with simple linear regression. The best correlation was with OPS. R^2 = 0.78 (i.e., 78% of the RE24 can be predicted from OPS. For K%, R^2 = 0.0074 with a negative slope, i.e., strikeouts don't matter as infuriating as I find that stat, it seems to be true. Also, OBP is as important as SLG. Luis Arraez does quite well by this metric, being in the top 20 of MLB hitters. From a Twins perspective, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner had the best outcomes. Christian Vasquez and Carlos Correa had the worst outcomes. The other parameters (R^2 in parenthesis) ISO (0.42) HR (0.39) BABIP (0.17) BB% (0.19) OPS (0.78) OBP (0.67) SLG (0.64) K% (0.0074)
  3. Eris
    That Joey Gallo absolutely stunk hitting 0.177 while producing an above average OPS indicates that OPS is not a good metric to evaluate performance. Gallo and Sano are in the prime of their careers (age wise) if they were even average MLB players they would have multi year contracts in the 10-15 million range or more. I don’t think that swinging for the fence on every pitch has served these players well over the long term. Edited to add: Among the top 30 players by fWAR in the MLB last year, The mean K% was 19.6 with a Median of 18.8. On this list, only James Outman had >30 K%. It seems clear to me that the best players don't strike out alot. Is there value in coaching a player to hit 20 HR instead of 10 HR, maybe. But unlikely if it means their K% increases from 25% to 35%. David
  4. Eris
    Thank you, Nick for the wonderful article. I think Joe Mauer raised the awareness of the long term effects of concussions on hitting performance. I am happy the voters were willing to overlook his shortened career and recognize Joe Mauer for the great player that he was.
  5. Eris
    Other things to do Revolutionary War. Lake George and Ft. Ticonderoga and other battlefields are 2-3 hours from Cooperstown. The Adirondack Park/Mountains are in the NE of New York. The Adirondack Park is one of the largest in the US with lots of outdoor activities.
  6. Eris
    Congratulations to Joe Mauer and his family. We were very blessed to have been able to watch him play for so many years.
  7. Eris
    Kepler is the more consistent player. Excluding 2020, Kepler has never had a year <2 fWAR. Of course Kepler hasn’t had a a 7 WAR season either. Bellinger has a lot more upside than Kepler but he may have more downside which is why it is difficult to assess Bellinger’s long term contract value. If the Twins could sign Bellinger to an incentive contract similar to Buxton’s 15 million base I think this would be a good move for the Twins. I doubt that this will happen. Also agree with many of the TD contributors that pitching is more important. From Fangraphs, Bellinger has had 4 years >3.5 WAR and 3 years < 2 WAR.
  8. Eris
    I don’t something here. The Twins original contract with Fox Sports (which Bally inherited/bought when Fox Sports sold the rights to Sinclair) ended at the end of 2023. The Twins could sell their broadcast rights to entity they can reach an agreement with). Why are they being forced to Bally (or when was the contract extended). What am I missing. With regards to cost to the users, I think streaming will be more expensive than cable, as the cost for streaming will be paid directly by the user. With cable, the services were bundled which meant that individual users did not pay the true cost of a service. Streaming services could bundle as well to spread costs but then eventually they will run in to the same dynamic as cable companies—the cost of bundled services will exceed what average user is willing to pay and they stop subscribing to the services.
  9. Eris
    A stalled market is what happens when the price of obtaining pitching becomes insanely expensive. At some point teams can’t justify the cost either in terms of $$ or trade capital.
  10. Eris
    I could get behind signing Bellinger to a 1 year deal. Certainly the upside is a lot more than Joey Gallo. I agree with @Rik19753that pitching is more needed. Also someone who has had 1 good year in the last 4 is not going to get a long term deal at $25m/year. During 2020-2022 Bellinger put up 2.2 WAR. He was hurt in 2021 but played 144 games in 2022. To give you an idea of just how bad of a performance those numbers represent, Willi Castro put up 1.8 WAR over the same period before being released by one of the worst teams in the league.
  11. Eris
    I think in order for the Twins to reasonably successful long term they need to be more like the Rays and less like the big market teams. The Twins have more than a third of the payroll in Correa and Buxton. Signing another player to a 20-25+ million long term contract means they lose payroll flexibility for years to come. Money that will potentially be needed to pay some of the rising stars.
  12. Eris
    I think broadcasters were the drivers of the bundled cable packages which has driven the cost of premium packages mostly around sports. The goal was to socialize the cost of sports programming over as large of a cable population as possible. Customers who wanted to watch the Twins also needed to pay for ESPN, Fox Sports, etc. This led to exorbitant $100+/month cable bills which ushered in the current era of cable cutting. I believe the capability has existed for local cable companies to “stream” the Twins to only the customers who wanted this. I don’t know of cable markets where that has happened. In New York some years ago, the Yankee network was very opposed to this idea when our local cable company offered that as a solution to a cost dispute.
  13. Eris
    I am somewhat confused by the whole process. According to the article, Amazon’s original agreement with Diamond was for streaming 11 teams. But MLB mixed that. Presumably this is because MLB thinks they can make more money streaming the other 6. Doesn’t then Amazon’s streaming service compete with MLBs At Bat. I live in NJ and being able to watch the Twins on Amazon reduces my willingness to pay for At Bat (unless Amazon’s streaming rights are restricted to a specific geographic region)
  14. Eris
    https://nypost.com/2024/01/17/business/amazon-poised-to-save-bankrupt-diamond-sports-with-100m-deal-to-stream-five-mlb-teams-sources/ works out to 20 million per team.
  15. Eris
    https://nypost.com/2024/01/17/business/amazon-poised-to-save-bankrupt-diamond-sports-with-100m-deal-to-stream-five-mlb-teams-sources/ this works out to 20 million per team.
  16. Eris
    How Ryan Jeffers becomes a top 10 ranked catcher is if the 2023 version of Jeffers shows up for the next 4 or 5 years. If the 2021 and 2022 version appears he is not a top 10 catcher.
  17. Eris
    Is Rodriguez a legit MLB CF. Who would be a good comparison for his defensive capabilities. Last I looked, the Twins have major uncertainties in CF, and it would be not wise to trade someone who could man CF for years. If he profiles as a corner outfielder than it is a different discussion.
  18. Eris
    I thought is was reported on TD last year that before the trade the Twins had approached Arraez about an extension and he had declined. I am not sure if this was true. If so, what has changed. As much as a love watching Arraez bat, he doesn’t really have a defensive spot with the Twins. He could be a full time DH. I guess that would work. Last year Buxton was close to a full time DH when he can’t play in the field. From my perspective, I would not reverse the previous trade by trading Lopez back to the Marlins for Arraez. Several reasons. The Twins need pitching. Lopez has signed and extension, and we have plenty of players to play 2B. Also, Polanco may be an overall better player (when healthy) than Arraez.
  19. Eris
    I would have included Ivan Rodriguez in the comparison as his career overlap with Mauer’s by 8 years.
  20. Eris
    From the article on Fangraphs ZiPS does not think Minnesota has a lot in the way of offensive reinforcements should injuries or a rash of disappointments hit the offense, as happened in 2021 and 2022. Outside of Carlos Correa’s frustrating down season, not a lot actually went wrong for the Twins last year, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/
  21. Eris
    Hasn’t Larnach suffered core muscle strain/injuries the past 2 years including surgery in 2022. It is difficult to assess a player’s potential when they are hurt. (In some cases being consistently hurt becomes the longer term prognosis)
  22. Eris
    The capabilities of a prospect are not really understood until they arrive in big leagues and their weakness is found. Can they overcome their weaknesses. Byron Buxton was MLBs top prospect in 2014 and 2015. Injuries aside, he still can’t hit a curveball. It is much easier to work out a fair trade with Arraez (vs Brooks Lee or Jenkins) because everyone knew exactly what his MLB capabilities were.
  23. Eris
    Clearly a strategy of drafting hitting. Which is okay and justified based on batters being more projectable than pitching and also the injury risk. But then to be successful as a team pitchers selected in later rounds need to developed into front line starters or teams have to be able/willing to trade hitting for pitching. Trading pitching for pitching means eventually running out of future pitching. The Jay pick had a strategy in that the Twins, needing pitching, drafted the top college relief pitcher and attempted to convert him to a starter. This was doomed when Jay suffered a mostly career ending shoulder injury.
  24. Eris
    The hope of a better future is part of the joy of being a baseball fan. I do understand what you are saying though. We have Walker Jenkins inked in as being more valuable then Byron Buxton, but Buxton (or pick some other player such as Correa, Lopez or Julien) is much more likely to lead our Twins to the World Series this year.
  25. Eris
    That is a lot of $$ for someone who has not been healthy (with shoulder issues) in two years.
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