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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    “Having one of the most well-rounded 26-man rosters “ Struggling to agree with that—in part because the entire infield defense (excluding C) was in the bottom half of MLB last year. Some of this can be rationalized by injuries (Correa and Kirilloff) and by inexperience (Lewis at 3B). Also the outfield D being above average depends almost entirely on Buxton. Kepler’s defense has slipped in recent years.
  2. Eris
    “Strong fielding has been a core component of the Minnesota Twins franchise since the franchise formerly known as the Washington Senators arrived in the Twin Cities.” Historically this may have been true. Certainly when Tom Kelly was manager. It has been quite awhile since the Twins Way was expected from players who rose through the system. Seems that in recent years we are more interested in bombas than solid defense.
  3. Eris
    How does draft, international signings and minor league salaries factor into this. Spending money is not the only consideration. The money needs to be spent wisely. Look at last year, $70 million was tied up in 4 players who combined to produce slightly more than 4 WAR.
  4. Eris
    Found this article from 2019 about Bauer to be interesting. https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/02/19/trevor-bauer-cleveland-Guardians-training-tools-twitter-controversy-cy-young#gid=ci0254ea9900002511&pid=trevor-bauer-pitching-overhead-tall2jpg
  5. Eris
    With regards to Bellinger, do we know that Boras is the reason he is unsigned. It is possible that clubs offered a 2-3 year contract and Bellinger regected these. Similar with Taylor, do we know he hasn’t received an offer. Obviously neither Taylor or Bellinger received an offer to their liking.
  6. Eris
    I thought that a team could release a player in/after spring training (don’t know the details) if they lost arbitration with out owing them the guaranteed portion of their salary. Not sure if this applies if the team wins arbitration. Am not 100% sure that what I have written is correct.
  7. Eris
    The culture/values of an organization/clubhouse is probably as important to success as some physical skills.
  8. Eris
    Is Byron Buxton’s $9.5 million in incentives included in the Twins payroll figures.
  9. Eris
    The challenge is that other teams are are also looking for starting pitching. The consequences being that even average pitching has become very expensive.
  10. Eris
    Looking back at the 2017 draft, after Lewis, 4 pitchers were selected. Hunter Greene had TJ and is still trying to establish himself. MacKenzie Gore has had control issues but seems to be getting things together after being traded to Washington. Kyle Wright injured his shoulder and Brendan McKay injured his elbow. Wright and McKay were college pitchers and likely will not have successful MLB careers. SSS, but this a 50% flameout because of injuries.
  11. Eris
    MLB defines what is in/out of market and their definition may surprise you. just for curiosity I looked for a region in the continental USA far far away from a team and plugged the zip code into MLB website. Someone in Raymond Montana is considered part of the home market of the Seattle Mariners. It is about a 16 hour drive from Raymond to Seattle. https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games
  12. Eris
    Is there anything in the arrangement that prevents Bally from selling streaming rights to Amazon.
  13. Eris
    There is a stat (kind of) that measures outcomes vs run expectancy for the 24 possible scenarios. It is RE24. In Fangraphs it is under the win probability stats. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&startdate=2023-10-03&enddate=2023-11-01&sortcol=4&sortdir=default&postseason=D
  14. Eris
    For me the frustrating part of the Twins season was the lack of situational hitting. Against the Astros in the playoffs how many at bats did the Twins have with the bases loaded and failed to score. It was way too many. Sometimes a single is all that separates a W from an L.
  15. Eris
    In 2022, Hall was MLBs 7th ranked LHP prospect, right after MacKenzie Gore https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2022/lhp/
  16. Eris
    The average MLB career is 5.6 years (I could not find the median). It makes sense for young players to secure their financial future. The value of Polanco’s contract can’t be taken in isolation. They also gave a similar contract to Kepler (which has turned out okay) and to Sano (who had a disappointing career).
  17. Eris
    The travel schedule can be brutal. Being functional at high level after arriving at your hotel early in the morning can be difficult. The older one is, the harder this becomes.
  18. Eris
    Lots of comparisons to Spencer Steer. At A+ Steer was the better hitter. BB% 16 vs 10, OPS 915 vs 860, WRC+ 150 vs 140. Data is from Fangraphs.
  19. Eris
    Thank you. 4 players show up on both your offense and defense lists. Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Martin.
  20. Eris
    Rather disappointing trade. Won’t really improve the team this year and we are not saving $$$. Might improve the team 2 or 3 years from now and we have a RH hitting outfielder to go with our excess of LH hitting outfielders.
  21. Eris
    I have downloaded the 2023 MLB data from Fangraphs and compared a number of traditional parameters to RE24 (run expectancy of 24 possible batting scenarios). As RE24 is a cumulative stat, I have adjusted RE24 to 100 PA. The minimum PA was 200. There were 362 batters that had >= 200 PA. RE24 is a good metric to use as takes into consideration the in-game situation of an at bat comparing the outcome to the run expectancy. I treated the data with simple linear regression. The best correlation was with OPS. R^2 = 0.78 (i.e., 78% of the RE24 can be predicted from OPS. For K%, R^2 = 0.0074 with a negative slope, i.e., strikeouts don't matter as infuriating as I find that stat, it seems to be true. Also, OBP is as important as SLG. Luis Arraez does quite well by this metric, being in the top 20 of MLB hitters. From a Twins perspective, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner had the best outcomes. Christian Vasquez and Carlos Correa had the worst outcomes. The other parameters (R^2 in parenthesis) ISO (0.42) HR (0.39) BABIP (0.17) BB% (0.19) OPS (0.78) OBP (0.67) SLG (0.64) K% (0.0074)
  22. Eris
    That Joey Gallo absolutely stunk hitting 0.177 while producing an above average OPS indicates that OPS is not a good metric to evaluate performance. Gallo and Sano are in the prime of their careers (age wise) if they were even average MLB players they would have multi year contracts in the 10-15 million range or more. I don’t think that swinging for the fence on every pitch has served these players well over the long term. Edited to add: Among the top 30 players by fWAR in the MLB last year, The mean K% was 19.6 with a Median of 18.8. On this list, only James Outman had >30 K%. It seems clear to me that the best players don't strike out alot. Is there value in coaching a player to hit 20 HR instead of 10 HR, maybe. But unlikely if it means their K% increases from 25% to 35%. David
  23. Eris
    Thank you, Nick for the wonderful article. I think Joe Mauer raised the awareness of the long term effects of concussions on hitting performance. I am happy the voters were willing to overlook his shortened career and recognize Joe Mauer for the great player that he was.
  24. Eris
    Other things to do Revolutionary War. Lake George and Ft. Ticonderoga and other battlefields are 2-3 hours from Cooperstown. The Adirondack Park/Mountains are in the NE of New York. The Adirondack Park is one of the largest in the US with lots of outdoor activities.
  25. Eris
    Congratulations to Joe Mauer and his family. We were very blessed to have been able to watch him play for so many years.
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