Eris

“James Outman was the next man up, and he whiffed on a bunt attempt.” I think the whiffed is incorrect. The pitch was a ball and Outman pulled his bat back It was wonderful to see Gasper have a great night

Lewis has had 2 ACL restorations on his plant leg. He may never reach his expected potential. Not sure how this is on Falvey. Not sure what Lewis’ hitting issue is. The Twins seem snake bitten with also Alex Kirillof being forced to retire with 2 career altering injury issues.

On Royce Lewis. There were previous reports of friction between Lewis and Correa concerning Lewis’ unwillingness to do more to improve himself as he faltered late in the 2024 season. This seems consistent with his current stance.

The Twins will win again when they fix 1B, 3B, LF, RF, backup catcher, possibly SS, and don’t trade away front tier starting pitching without equivalent replacements. This assumes that Buxton stays healthy and Keaschall anchors 2B and Jeffers maintains as an average MLB catcher.

One of the biggest factors that needs to be evaluated is that over the ~4 years Correa wore a Twins uniform the Twins had a better record when Correa was not playing. It is hard to dissect that information without pointing a finger at Carlos Correa. Why Carlos Correa made the team worse (or perhaps not better is a more neutral term) is hard to comprehend given his all-star and close to HoF talents. During this period Willi Castro and Brooks Lee, followed by Kyle Farmer had the most substitute games at SS.

According to baseball salvant, Brooks Lee is marginally better that Carlos Correa in fielding run value and outs above average. There is a huge gap between Lee and Masyn Winn, Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Allen https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/fielding-run-value?count=&gameType=Regular&seasonStart=2025&seasonEnd=2025&type=fielder&position=6&minInnings=200&minResults=1

On Royce Lewis. Very few players in MLB have had 2 ACL restorations. (Scott Sizemore, Ronald Acuna Jr, Wilson Ramos, and Royce Lewis). Sizemore’s were on his non-plant (left) knee, Acuna and Ramos were contra lateral injuries). Royce Lewis is the only MLB player that I am aware of that has had 2 ACL reconstructions on his plant knee. He is in uncharted territory and if he has a successful MLB career he will be very fortunate.

Disappointing for sure. “they've now decided to allow minority partners to soak up some of the financial burden they faced while holding onto what is still a highly profitable company” I am trying to understand this in the context of the $400 million. Is the debt from baseball operations or from other Pohlad businesses. Based on previous threads I thought MLB had rules against transferring non baseball dept to the baseball franchise. These rules were implemented after the Mets Wilpon-Madoff disaster. The quote captured from the article and some of the comments imply the $400 million debt is not from baseball operations. Google AI indicates the debt is from stadium financing and any money borrowed from the league credit fund for long term capital improvements.

From the second half of 2023 to July of 2024 the Twins were probably the best team in baseball accumulating >30 fWAR during that period. Then it all fell apart even though Buxton has had one of his best years ever. The yearly projections do not capture this well as the dominance occurred over 2 half seasons. I think some of the issues are the Twins play poor defense and seem to have a lot of one dimensional players.

There is the puzzling data that the Twins had a better record over Correa’s 4 years with the team when he was not playing. Look at who else is gone. Bader hustled all the time. Castro put forth a lot of effort. It will be interesting to see how this all works out. Having a person like Keaschall can be very infectious.

The Twins missed a great opportunity in the Brock Stewart trade. The Twins inquired about Shohei Ohtani as part of the trade and the Dodgers responded that Shohei wasn’t available for any combination of Twins players or for any other player in baseball. I feel that some of the recent articles on Twins Daily border on click bait. There are however probably interesting discussions that took place with Houston over Carlos Correa and I love to read about that in its entirety. For example, I have read that Houston originally asked for a major league outfielder plus salary relief as part of the package to which the Twins said “no.” In which case Houston missed a great opportunity to acquire Larnach, Wallner, Bader or possibly even Buxton.

Which is a greater failure, hanging on to a team of perennial losers or going in a direction that might produce a better outcome down the road. Not withstanding Buxton’s own glass body, the list of individuals who have failed Buxton is quite long. In addition to the front office it should include Sano, Lewis, Julian, Miranda, Kepler, maybe Larnach, definitely Vasquez and Donaldson, and possibly Correa as his presence did not elevate the Twins. Should also include every pitcher who threw a pitch where the result was Buxton crashing into a wall to make a play.

Jax has expressed interest in converting to a SP. The Rays have had success converting ex-Twin Zach Littell. Being even an average SP will provide higher career earnings than being a good RP.

It started falling apart about a year ago. This past week was the consequences. For the second half of 2023 through the first half of the 2024 season, the Twins were one of the best teams in all of baseball. Since the second half 2024 collapse, they have been one of the worst teams. It is difficult to understand how the same team—with about the group of players—can produce such divergent outcomes.

One reason for selling off pitching at the trade deadline is that deadline trades of pitching is more valuable than hitting as every playoff hopeful team seeks to bolster their RP. The most valuable assets were the starting pitchers which they did not sell. Also, beyond Bader and Castro who were on expiring contracts, the Twins have few position players that have value for a playoff team—maybe Ryan Jeffers who is a league average catcher (that we can not trade because of lack of any replacement).

I feel that discussion of money is just a sideshow to distract from the fundamental issue—how many position players with their current level of production would be starting on playoff caliber teams. Beyond Buxton probably no one. Yes, the Twins are losing money as per the > $400 million debt that the Pohlads want covered in the sale. But don’t let that detract from the real issue which is the failure to draft and develop talent. Even had they been able to afford a $20 million 1B, this would still not be a playoff caliber team.

Falvey deserves to be held accountable more for putting this team together than for blowing it up. The Twins had put a team on the field that for whatever reason was not delivering. As a fan, I have never been so disappointed in a team. I was led to hope after the 2023 season that I might live to see another WS before I die. It doesn't look promising. The main issue left unaddressed is that the replacement level killers remain (see previous TD article on this topic The Twins’ Replacement-Level Killers Killed the 2025 Season - Twins Daily Front Page News - Twins Daily). This is primarily because position players generally don't have as much value at the trade deadline as a relief pitcher because every team needs to reinforce their bullpen for the playoffs). Therefore, selling pitching is the most effective way to build value at the trade deadline. A number of trades (Duran, Jax, Stewart) seem to have fallen short on capturing the excess value of the July 31 trade deadline. To have competitive team, the position players need to produce in something about or > 25 fWAR. The math is quite difficult for the Twins this year and I am not certain the current roster will be better next year. Please tell me that Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, and Ryan will be better next year. At the trade deadline, the Twins had 2 players (Buxton and Bader) with > 2 fWAR and 4 players between 1 and 2 fWAR and a team fWAR of 10.3. The Tigers in contrast, have 4 players at > 2 fWAR and 5 players between 1-2 fWAR and team fWAR of 17.4. I am summarizing below what I have written earlier on the threads, so if you have already read this, feel free to skip the remainder of the message. Carlos Correa was only producing at about 1/2 of his expected contract. I am not certain what has all transpired to result in this. To me the most insightful note on this came from Phil Miller and reposted to TD by several. It is hard to comprehend the good clubhouse presence/image of Carlos Correa and being an on the field general manager with the data, which is that the Twins had a better outcome when Correa wasn't in the lineup. Wow! I would never have guessed this and I wish TD writers who were more capable that I would explore this in great detail as it might help us understand why this current team has so underperformed. Our team was actually better when our on-the-field leader was not on the field. OMG!! No wonder Twins fans have been so royally disappointed. (Note that the differences in the data are small and likely within the standard deviations, but the best we can say about Correa's tenure with the Twins is that the Twins did not do better than when he was in the lineup). Most of us would be fired from our day jobs in a couple of weeks if our teams performed better when we were not around. I am expecting more changes. Larnach, Wallner, and possibly Lewis may all need to go (read replacement level killers linked above)--maybe Wallner would work out at 1B. Falvey deserves to be held accountable for putting this team together in the first place. Blowing it up was only a natural outcome of the failure to build a decent team. To paraphrase one of my favorite quotes on the topic from a fellow TD, the Twins have put together a team where 5 or 6 players best position is DH--they are slow, they don't play good defense, and they can't hit consistently. What is left? Falvey should be fired for this.

The never to be answered puzzle is how so many players (Correa, Wallner, Lewis, Julian, Kepler, Miranda) could play like all stars for the 2nd half of 2023 giving hope, driving roster decisions and then collectively play some of the worst baseball ever since. There is a very strong possibility that Julian, Miranda and Kepler will not be on a 40 man roster next year. Of the two remaining players, Wallner and Lewis, neither is doing much to help the team this year.

While I agree with the overall assessment of the direction of baseball, I don’t agree with the conclusion as it relates to the Twins. The Twins are currently a very slow team with poor defensive metrics that seems to have been built for a different (bomba) era that has moved on. To paraphrase one of the more insightful comments on TD, the Twins have 5 or 6 position players whose best position is DH. This will need to be seriously addressed.

I understand the decision. I think they could have done better in the Varland trade. Correa wasn’t living up to his contract expectations. This still leaves the challenge of the replacement level killers unaddressed. The core of the under performance is on offense and defensive play and those players are still mostly on the team or waiting for someone else to step up. On the farm, with the exception of Keaschal, Jenkins and Culpepper reinforcements are a couple of years away.

“Correa, for his part, has done whatever he could to foster a winning atmosphere, and will continue to do so as he returns to the organization that took him first overall in 2012. “ The data below was posted in the TD general trade thread. It is very interesting that the Twins had a better winning percentage in games that Correa did not play The simplest conclusion is that whether or not Correa played was irrelevant to the the outcome of a Twins game. This is a really surprising outcome given his reputation for building a positive clubhouse culture and being an onfield general manager. It is also a position that no MLB player would like to be in as a players role on the team becomes very expendable when his presence in the lineup makes no difference in the outcome It would be very interesting to see a deeper analysis of the factors behind these numbers, such as playing hurt or a decline in defensive range and performance

There is obviously an issue here. I think the roster construction can in be contributed to poor first round drafting. There are a lot of picks on the list that have not contributed to making the Twins MLB roster. Lewis has put up 4.6 fWAR and Larnach 2.3 fWAR in 4 seasons, Petty was traded for Sonny Gray. Rooker, Cavaco, Sabato, Miller. That is a lot of first rounders to get little to no value. We can also add Kirriloff’s forced early retirement due to multiple career altering injuries.

All the professional athletes are playing to win the final game of the season. Most players—even the most loyal—would not pass up an opportunity to play for a team in the playoffs. There are many really good baseball players who have never played in the World Series. I don’t begrudge anyone for wanting that vs staying for a rebuild.

I think this was a good move for the Twins. Correa was slowing down at SS (there was an article on TD about a month ago about how poor his defensive metrics were). The Twins could really only justify his salary if a 4 WAR player who could be written in the lineup card everyday.

The Twins are right to consider trading Correa (and most other players—except their better starting pitchers). As the roster is currently constructed, the Twins do not have a good team and need to upgrade at multiple positions. They are — with only a few exceptions— slow, nonathletic, and play poor defense.