Eris

I thought this was one of the aspects of pitching that Craig Breslow demonstrated later in his playing career. By lowering his arm angle he could increase revolutions and therefore movement on his pitches.

A couple of items in context. Austin Meadows, and right-hander Tyler Glasnow were traded to the Rays for Chris Archer. So on this list, only Gerrit Cole was traded because of lack of affordability. The Chris Archer trade was a horrible trade for the Pirates. Worse than Sending Garza and Bartlett to the Rays for Delmon Young. However, I don’t think it should be used as an example for the point the author is trying to make.

Baseballsavant’s fielding run value ( sorry unable to paste the link) shows that there are about 5 elite shortstops, a few very good shortstops. Then everyone else. Interesting on this metric Lee grades out better than Correa (-1 vs -3). Neither of which is very good. For comparison, Bobby Witt Jr is +20.

This is exactly the challenge. Bottom of the ninth, tie game or trailing by a run, Runner at 3B with 1 or 2 outs. A strikeout is one of the worst outcomes.

Unfortunately the statistics are true. Over the course of a season the team that scores the most runs wins the most games. The stat most closely related to runs scored is ISO, and ISO is not correlated with strikeouts (i.e., strikeouts really don’t matter). The challenge comes when applying statistics that are true on a large sample size to a much smaller sample size. For the first round on the playoffs. Every team that advanced scored the most runs—except the Guardians. The Guardians lost the series to the Tigers primarily because of very poor defense especially in the first game.

I think in general many mlb pitchers with TOS do not regain their previous level of performance. Matt Harvey, Phil Hughes, Stephen Strasburg, Josh Beckett are examples.

Anyone else tired of listening to the same stupid commercials on MLB At Bat. They really need to hire a marketer who realizes that presenting a commercial 10-20 times a game is a major turnoff. (I am listening to the games as I dispatched cable TV more than 30 years ago). If I was watching I would mute the commercials, which was a response to the excessive number of sports betting commercials during the regular season

Yes, of course the new manager will be in a difficult position. The reality is the was a poor team filled with DH types. While there is some hope the Lewis, Wallner, and Martin may up their game next year, this team played much of the year in need of upgrades at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, backup C and possibly SS. It could have been much worse as Bader and Castro played well before they were traded. Other than hope (and Keaschall), there should not be much expectation that this improves for next year.

One other concern I would add is the unpreparedness of many players to play fundamentally sound baseball when called up to the big leagues. The vaunted Twins way seems to have disappeared when Tom Kelly retired. There are many examples one of which is Austin Martin who when first called up seemed totally incapable of playing a serviceable OF. One of the reasons is the Twins had him playing SS in the minors, a position no one expected him to play in the MLB.

"This wasn’t the corner turned in 2023, when Minnesota finally won its first playoff series in two decades. That team felt like the start of something. Instead, ownership slashed payroll...." It seems too easy to lead the discussion with money. The Twins payroll is approximately equal the Tigers and greater than the Brewers, Guardians and Reds. As I write this all these teams are in the playoffs or still in the race (Reds). A detailed analysis is far more nuanced than just money. The 2023 team made it into the playoff from a 2nd half surge led by Julien, Kepler, Castro, Lewis, Jeffers, and Wallner. These were career years for Julien, Lewis and Jeffers. The 2nd best careers years by fWAR for Kepler, and Castro. Since then, Julien and Kepler will likely be out of baseball next year. Lewis has been one of the worst hitters in baseball for past year. Wallner's career has failed to take flight. What the h*** happened that all these players did so will in the 2nd half of 2023 (and the first half of 2024). In addition, the Twins have had a horrible success rate with first round draft picks. Buxton, Lewis, Larnach and Lee are the Twins 1st round picks that are on the active roster. Lewis, Larnach and Lee combined for 1.4 fWAR this year. Martin was also a first round pick for the Blue Jays. That is a lot of failure in the scouting and development department. Also worth of a detailed analysis. The Twins perhaps have learned from the years of failure by drafting more athletic players with their first pick. The Twins lack of success with high draft picks is one of the main reasons for years of failure on the diamond. The Twins have continued to fail on the baseball field despite having success in their starting pitching department. Poor defense, lack of situational hitting, lousy baserunning all seem to contribute. Money will not fix these issues. I spent my evening last night watching baseball. A gem by Apel, several good defensive plays (Martin and Outman). Afterwards I watched the end of the Ranger-Guardians game.

The reason it feels like there’s no light at the end of the tunnel is that the trades didn’t address the core issue which is the position players as a group are significantly underperforming. To have a competitive team, the Twins need upgrades at 1B, LF, RF, possibly SS and 3B. That is half of a starting lineup. Maybe some of the upgrades will come from current players performing to their potential, otherwise we are waiting for the next generation of talent.

I don’t recall reading any analysis about Walker Jenkins defensive skill set in CF. Does he profile as elite, above average, average or below average in CF.

I am wondering if the information is actually correct. Yes. Falvey did say that they chose MLB ready prospects over higher ceiling players that were further away, but you would expect a GM to say that we traded for players that will allow the team to compete next year. You would not expect a GM to say we chose players who will be MLB ready in 3 or 4 years because our team will suck until them. Without knowing who the other players are, it is impossible to properly evaluate whether or not they could have had a better return.

While I would have love to see the Twins resign Sonny Gray and get his current level of production. The Twins main problem is they can’t hit, they can’t play defense and many players lack base running skills. I doubt that Sonny Gray would have solved those issues.

There is nothing indifferent about the final weeks of the season. I am sure the teams fighting for the last playoff spot are expecting a full effort on games that potentially impact playoff standings. Some players are playing for arbitration stats. Others are playing for a spot on the Twins or another team. Still others are playing for their last chance at a professional career. One such individual is Mickey Gasper, down to his last gasp in Major League Baseball, pinch hitting in the 9th. While the outcome is not what I would have liked, Mickey Gasper had a quality at bat.

“Knowing their eventual owner could have been the Twins' only makes it rougher.” Not something I was thinking about while watching Adam’s give the game away or the Twins sending Topa out in the 9th on Wednesday. I was thinking that these moves were like raising the white flag while ahead in the game. Losing is disappointing. Losing games where the Twins are ahead is even more disappointing, and losing to the White Sox….

I would add Justin Morneau to the list. That his career ended early because of a concussion does not take away from the career he was having.

Hard to feel sympathy for a player who ranks in the bottom half of the league in production. Yes, Royce has had some unlucky breaks but if he was not a first round pick he would be in the minors working on his hitting. Not being willing to work with a hitting coach to fix weaknesses is not a positive thing.

Nice write up. Makes you wonder if bat speed is overrated.

I think Twins can be competitive next year especially if they don’t trade pitching without equivalent replacement options. During the month of August, the Twins took series'sfrom Detroit, Kansas City, and the Padres. They had a pitching meltdown in Toronto and had clunkers vs the Athletics and the White Sox. With good pitching this Twins team is capable of beating good teams. For next season, the outfield needs to be improved (Jenkins and Rodriquez), 1B and C. I think these are very doable.

The Hot Stove League starts early. Normally we don’t get these articles until after the World Series. How does anyone really know how much the Twins are planning on spending next year. Did Dan Hayes give a source. If not then the article is just about clicks. The reason the Twins are doing poorly this year is because we have too many players who can’t hit and can’t play defense. Any trade proposals aimed at improving the team needs to address these issues. The Twins need to improve 1B, 3B,LF,RF, backup C and possibly SS (although Brooks Lee might be good enough until Culpepper arrives if Culpepper is the solution at SS). Generally trading your best players will not make the team better unless they are used to address these weaknesses. One way of looking at it internally is would the Twins be willing to trade Joe Ryan for a Walker Jenkins).

No. The Twins have only 3 position players on their active roster with above average defense (Buxton, Clemens, and Lewis). We don’t need another defensively challenged player on the roster when we already have 5 or 6 players whose best position is DH.

Prospect Summary. Walker Jenkins is in St. Paul.

There are several issues that affected the sale. 1). Pohlad’s want buyers to cover franchise value plus debt. I think the inclusion of debt was a dealbreaker. Essentially, the Pohlad’s wanted 20% more than the estimated value for the franchise. 2). Not discussed much, because of high interest rates, financing is almost 2x more expensive than just several years ago. This is similar to buying a house in the current interest rate environment.

This is not the real issue. The real issue is the inability to draft and develop talent. Since 2012 when Buxton and Berrios were drafted, what has been the impact of the Twins first round picks for anyone not named Buxton or Berrios. Cumulatively, it is about 20 fWAR (includes hitters and pitching). The pick who contributed the most was Chase Petty who trade for Sonny Gray netted 7.8 fWAR, followed by Lewis at 4.5 fWAR. Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Aaron Sabato, Brett Rooker, Keoni Cavaco, Noah Miller, and Trevor Larnach have failed to contribute either because of injuries, poor coaching or lack of talent. The list of failures is really long and the list of successes are few. This is the main reason the Twins have a poor team.