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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    Trying to be optimistic about this. In the short term the Mets will benefit a lot. However, the backend of the contract is likely to be drag on their payroll. Soto’s contract is front loaded, but it is still 46 million per year until his age 41 season. Consider the Yankees as an example. They have not won a World Series since 2009 despite repeatedly having one of the top payrolls in baseball. This year was there only appearance since their last title.
  2. Eris
    Agree with the general opinion that is is very difficult to find a home for a one dimensional player. I also feel that the Twins have too many players who are below average defensively to justify picking up Arraez. He did however, score 83 runs in down year for him. He would have been second on the Twins behind Castro’s 89 runs and about 40th in MLB. Does the metric of runs scored not have a lot of value.
  3. Eris
    I struggle to understand how someone who has greater than 30% strikeouts at most of his stops in the minors and can’t hit off speed pitches should be a top 30 MLB prospect and the #2 TD prospect. It is almost as if strikeouts don’t matter. Don’t get take my comments wrong, I hope Emmanuel Rodriguez has Hall of Fame career and leads the Twins to multiple World Series championships. But his current path seems all too familiar (Buxton, Larnach). He will be called up and see curveballs after curveballs from MLB pitchers who can throw these pitches for strikes and will have close to a 40% K rate. Hopefully he and the Twins figure this out before he is called up.
  4. Eris
    Many years go, I was able to attend a presentation by Sandy Alderson when he was GM with the Mets. He was asked how the Mets assessed trades. He indicated there was an ongoing continuous effort where employees (including interns) propose trade ideas with different organizations and these are presented and discussed at weekly meetings (more frequent approaching the trade deadline). In a way it is probably not much different than the discussions on TD regarding proposed trades (except they have internal data).
  5. Eris
    This is the current trend in baseball. It seems as if the bomba days of 2017-2019 have had a long term influence on player selection. Per fangraphs, in 2024, only 6 teams had a positive defensive metric (which includes a positional adjustment). In 2004, 21 teams had a positive defensive metric. (hmm, can’t paste the fangraphs links )
  6. Eris
    In addition to evaluation methodology that was included in this article, which showed a small overall WAR impact, I would add a subjective win, lose or draw assessment to the trade, for example did the trade accomplish the immediate goal. I would have also included all the trades, including for minor leaguers. It also possible for both teams to win or lose a trade. Examples: Margot trade was a loss as the immediate objective was to acquire a capable 4th outfielder (he had -0.2 fWAR in his only season with the Twins) Polanco trade was a loss (for both teams) as the objective was to acquire a very good reliever (Topa) and a fifth starter Sonny Gray trade was a win even if Petty has a HoF career as the objective was to acquire a frontline starter
  7. Eris
    Agree with @bean5302 given the Twins lack of depth of MLB capable catchers in the farm system, a trade needs to return a catcher and therefore there is only surplus value in a Jeffers trade if the Twins downgrade the catcher quality or accept higher risk by, e.g., trading for a minor league catcher with a higher ceiling. This does call into question the Twins draft strategy of generally not drafting catchers higher in the draft especially since good catchers have a lot of trade value. (Easier said than done as players who profile as good hitters with strong defense behind the plate are rare and would likely go high in the draft). Ben Rortvelt was a second round pick and has failed to live up to expectations.
  8. Eris
    I think a team can never have enough pitching. Therefore I would not be in favor of any of these trades unless a high ceiling A or AA pitcher was included. I think the trades that Twins need to explore are trading some of their hitters for players that could offer more defensive upside. From Fangraphs, the Twins have only 4 players returning next season that provided positive defensive value (These are Vasquez , Correa, Castro, and Buxton). That is a lot of opportunity for improvement on defense. (not sure why, but I can’t paste the fangraphs link here)
  9. Eris
    From Griffin Jax’ perspective, a good starting pitcher is normally worth more than a good relief pitcher. Therefore he should be given that opportunity.
  10. Eris
    World Series games frequently come down to 1 play made vs. 1 play not made. Fundamentals and good defense matters. I don’t recall a series where one team played such sloppy baseball. On catcher interference. There is a write up somewhere that catchers are moving closer to the plate in an attempt to steal more strikes. Here’s a play that was made.
  11. Eris
    Fundamentals. The Dodgers played mostly fundamentally sound baseball during the WS. The Yankees mostly did not. If the Yankees had played mistake free baseball 2 of the games might have had a different outcome.
  12. Eris
    Trying to understand the totality of optimized contact. I didn’t see strikeouts mentioned. I didn’t see RBIs with 2 outs and RISP.
  13. Eris
    The MLBPA will not strike over this imbalance. This is exactly what the players association wants—a few rich teams to drive up salaries.
  14. Eris
    “To be clear, if the Twins had the extra $20M to work with this past season, they almost certainly would have walked into the playoffs.“ This team had many issues including poor defense, lack of situational hitting, poor base running and way too many players who did not contribute down the stretch. Hindsight is wonderful. A key component to the collapse is Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Julian, and Ryan—players who were expected to be part of the core for many more years all failed down the stretch. Money would not have solved this part of the problem.
  15. Eris
    Unfortunately there are 2 issues that will maintain most of the current revenue/ salary structure. 1). The players association has always been about the best players in free agency having an opportunity to make the most money. This requires a few financially well off teams to bid up salaries. 2). The big market teams will lose a number of the advantages they have in player procurement with the more revenue that is shared. These owners have no incentive to give that advantage away. There was an article on TD a few days ago about the coming end of lucrative deals from regional sports networks. This will be painful for a lot of people in baseball. Average players approaching final arbitration years or free agency will be particularly negatively impacted.
  16. Eris
    Who do you have in mind as a replacement. There are no MLB ready replacements at catcher in the Twins system. It could be much worse, see John Ryan Murphy for an example.
  17. Eris
    As a Twins fan for more than 5 decades, I have always understood that for the Twins to be competitive they have to develop talent. They could never compete with large market teams in FA contracts. There are multiple failures for this team related to drafting, trades, injuries, and on field performance. The list of players who failed down the stretch or were unavailable for large parts of the season would include almost the entire roster of hitters. It is hard to win with the level of offensive ineptitude exhibited by many of the players in September. For an unknown reason I’m not able to link the fangraphs search here. The list of players with 0 or negative fWAR for the final month of the season includes: Castro, Vasquez, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, Kepler, Margot, and Jeffers. This is the primary reason the Twins are not in the playoffs. If just 1 or 2 of these individuals would have stepped up during the final month of the season, the outcome would likely have been different.
  18. Eris
    While I don’t disagree with this comment on viability, the core aspect of the issue is that consumers are looking at their $120 - 150 / month cable bills and are looking for ways to reduce costs. They start by looking for options where they are paying for what they are watching. The reality is that many sports channels have been subsidized by non sports fans for many years. As consumers cut their cable and turn to alternatives, cable companies are pushing back or they will lose more customers. I cut cable along time ago, primarily because my spouse was not happy about the bill. I rely mostly on radio and the MLB at bat app for baseball. How many Twins fans would pay $150 / season to watch the Twins? 500,000 at 50% margin gives about 37 million. Is this achie able.
  19. Eris
    The greatest point of failure for the Twins is that too many players did not show up when they were needed. For some because they were injured. For others we don’t know at this time. What frustrates me a lot about this team is that as a team they do not play fundamentally sound baseball. Lack of situational hitting and poor base running are two examples. Maybe also poor defense.
  20. Eris
    Lack of situational hitting has been an issue for the Twins all season. In a must win game, they were 2/19 with RISP.
  21. Eris
    Of the hitters only Wallner and Correa showed up last night. Detroit is only a 1/2 game behind in the wild card with 10 games left in the season. Who amongst us gave Detroit any chance of being in the playoffs. That indicates how poorly the Twins have played.
  22. Eris
    If they want to really fix the injury issues they will need to address it at youth sports. Today’s MLB players likely focused on playing baseball at least 9 months of the year. More in some regions. This is a very significant change from 40 years ago when most high school athletes played 3 sports. I live in NJ and player doesn’t make the high school baseball team if he doesn’t play club ball and they don’t pitch without have a personal pitching coach before 9th grade. There is a whole industry built around this for most high school sports with the possible exception of bowling.
  23. Eris
    If a team has too many players below average defensively (Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, Castro (CF), Jeffers, not hitting (Kepler, Julian, Farmer, Margot, even Lewis is slumping) hurt (Correa, Buxton, Kirilloff, maybe Kepler) this is somewhat logical outcome. From Lewis point of view, playing 1B or 2B is the least valuable position for maximizing his financial returns during free agency. In a different pre-ACL situation, Lewis would be an above average (maybe even elite) outfielder. But those days are gone and it is 3B, 1B, DH or a disgruntled 2B (which means he won’t be there for long—Boras will make sure of that). One can imagine what a phone call with the front of will be like. “My guy is unhappy at 2B, if you ever want to sign one of my guys again…. “
  24. Eris
    Adding to the article, I think there is a tendency to overuse the most effective RP. It is very rare to have a relief pitcher with greater that 70 appearances for multiple seasons in a a row and maintain effectiveness.
  25. Eris
    Base running and stealing are skills. They can be improved if teams / players work at it.
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