Cory Engelhardt

Awesome! Enjoy!

I'd want a better return, and I'd push to even pay a LITTLE more down to get Walker Janek. Another catching addition would help our organization.

Two top 100 prospects for a rental 1b/dh is hard to swallow. I'd pass on that specific deal, even if I do think Alonso would give this lineup something it doesn't have already. 

I know it's probably not likely, but IF they are going to add a right handed bat, and/or (my hope) a playoff level starter, maybe that is why the holdup is for announcing Santana and Jackson?

Is it POSSIBLE they are talking about trading a few 40 man roster guys in a move to bring in a starter?

I'm sorry, I can't put Severino above Woods Richardson. I just can't do it. I'd probably also, easily, have Danny De Andrade and Connor Prielipp (if his shoulder is healthy) and Pierson Ohl well above Severino too. And now that I think of it, possibly another 5 or 10 guys. Severino at 15 is probably 10 spots too high for him in my opinion. 

Thank you for laying it out this way. I do see how it's arguable that Julien is at his peak value right now, which is why I would listen on him too. IF you can get a really good pitcher for him, I also really like your idea of Lee at 3b with Lewis moving to 2b (or at least, keeping Lewis on the infield.)

I agree with all of this, and I think the focus should be to acquire a starter (instead of labels of 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) go with, would you be comfortable with that starter starting a playoff game or not?

I guess that's my baseline for what they need to do.

I am comfortable with Ryan and Ober in that role, behind Lopez. IF Paddack looks anything like he did in October, I might actually put him ahead of Ryan or Ober.

That said, I want to get someone who can be a step ahead of them. And I really like those 3.

Doesn't have to be a #2 or #3. I just want to feel confident at playoff time that the starters we have are playoff caliber.

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You and all Twins fans do not want to trade Lee or other top prospects for that matter. Then the team just fields the team they have right now with a few simple signings or a gamble trade with Miami.

Your first sentence tells me that you know that Seattle would ask for Lee or Lewis and Polanco or Kepler. This is the conundrum Falvey faces.

The Twins are not going to get pitching from any team that is sorely lacking pitching. They are not signing a top free agent starting pitcher, and they are not adding hitting stars like Soto. This leaves plenty of other gambles and risk plays, of which Seattle presents the clearest example. It's either yes or no.

Yes and no for what though? And are you truly arguing the only way to get a pitcher this offseason is to make a deal with only Seattle? I’m so confused. But it is hard to say absolutes for anything right now. I understand needing to give something to get something. 

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Think .... what would you do/want?

I have the hardest time trading Lee. I guess see what’s on the table. As of today (and this may change) I would try and package something like Farmer, Emmanuel Rodriguez and something else for a good starter. But I don’t know what Seattle is looking for 

Curious if they want Polanco to be 2B and getting someone else for 3b? Or if they are pushing (if it is a Twins player) for someone like Farmer, or Lee? Interesting?

And then what happened? :)

I'm in the 84-88 range, and IF health is solid in July, then I anticipate addition(s) will happen to better the team come playoff time. IF things truly break right, I can see low 90's in wins. I also think the floor is very high, and I don't see a way that the team wins less than 80.

I guess I care about him being healthy in September and October a LOT more than I do in early/mid march.

I'll worry a week to 10 days from now if the number is still zero for him, if that makes sense.

If Ober can show he can pitch more than 100 innings in a season, then great!

I have Mahle and Lopez and Ryan as firmly better than him. I THINK Maeda and Gray, based on track records, are better than him. But I also firmly believe that Ober has the ability to be a mid-rotation starter.

I don't know what the future holds for next year and ongoing, but I'm hoping that Mahle and Lopez get extensions. You mentioned how most teams use 6-7 starters. The Astros had 8 different starters start a game in 2022, and the Dodgers used 12. The Twins used 14, but hopefully they don't have a year with THAT many injuries again.

More good pitching isn't a problem. And everyone will get a chance throughout the year assuming for injuries and double-headers etc.

100% the SS job is Correa's until he can't play elite defense there anymore. I'm glad there are options who can back up for rest days, but SS is the reason the Twins extended him.

On 10/31/2021 at 10:08 AM, TheLeviathan said:

I like how your prices all seemed very cognizant of being fair and not homerish.  I'd have liked to see you lay out the roster after all your moves along with the salary bottom line.

My biggest plus there was the Arraez trade idea (does STL need a 2B?), but I'm worried about Chris Taylor as an every day SS.

I brought Taylor in not planning for him to be the starting SS for the next 3 years, but he can certainly play ss, and allow time for one of Martin or Lewis or someone else to become the SS. After that, he is a GREAT utility option who can play SS or CF. Our other current utility options (I'll lump Arraez and Miranda in there for now) are more 1b/2b/3b types. 

That would be ok with me too. I'd certainly prefer a young arm the Twins believe in with years of control instead of paying 20 million per year (an example) to a free agent who's ceiling is a #3. 

I like the Marlins too, no doubt. For me with the Marlins, a lot of the deals I really like are for their extremely young pitching (like Max Meyer or Eduard Cabrera.) I'd be all about acquiring them, but my goal (at least for this mock offseason) was to get guys who have already been at or near the top of a major league rotation. I also don't see Miami trading Rogers or Lopez or Alcantara without getting extremely blown away. I could be wrong for sure. 

My thought is, if the offense can stay top 5-10 in mlb, and the pitching can go from 29th (where they were in 2021) even just to middle of the pack (not top 5-10 like they were 2018, 2019 and 2020) then they are in that 86-90 win area. From that point, if you can get into a wild card spot, all bets are off in the playoffs. 

Thanks! It's a fun thought exercise for sure

Larnach sure could be an all star type hitter. He looked GREAT the first month he was up, and I think he can be great again.

Kepler is exceptional defensively, has power and takes some walks. He hasn't been anything like 2019 in almost any other year, but he is fine enough, especially with the defense he provides. But, really, he could certainly be a trade option too.

I do believe they will be creative. The offseason will be fascinating.

12 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Um, Arraez for Jack Flaherty... Yes, please! 

Canterino, Wallner and Enlow for one year of Manaea? No, thanks! 

I have a hard time judging what would be fair for someone like Manaea or what the A’s are looking for. I’m guessing prospects. This offer was close on baseballtradevalues, but that is really more of a guide.

Thanks! It's fun thinking through scenarios on this isn't it?

I see Kirilloff as the primary 1B to be honest, but he certainly can play the outfield too. I admittedly like Kepler's defense a lot, so even though his batting average isn't great, I think he does other things well. He is still young, and I think getting back to 75% of what he did in 2019 is doable. Otherwise, statistics show he isn't a terrible player by any means, and I have a hard time JUST using batting average to compare how a player is doing.

Larnach will have a higher than .220 average in a full season. Coming off a missed season and playing full time again would be tough for any rookie to struggle through. I imagine last season was a learning curve for him and many other younger players.

I don't know if my names will be the ones they acquire at all, it's just a guess. BUT, I do think the trade route is what they will do over the free agent route. It's what they have done before getting playoff level starters (Odorizzi and Maeda.) 

Like the idea of the trade for Anderson.  If you are willing to go 4/88 for Baumgardner, then why not pay more for Wheeler.  

Diekman seems high, and do not like him that much with the three batter minimum next year. 

Like most of this, but not sure about the move for Gallen, seems high to give up that much.  

Fixing the infield defense will mean a lot, lots of questions there.

I would totally go for Wheeler. I want either of them, or Ryu, on the team. I like Wheeler’s stuff more for sure. If he is here, that is good in my book.

Gallen I like more than most. I am all about trading for a pitcher though, someone young with team control. There are definitely other options though. Who else should they look at?

1. Can’t picture Arizona being interested in trading Gallen after giving up quite a bit to get him this past trade deadline. Also feel that’s way too much to give up if they were open to dealing him.

2. Not interested in Anderson at that price at all but agree with the premise of dropping Cron, moving Sano to 1B and adding a defensive upgrade at 3B.

1) You might be right. I wanted to shoot for trading for a pitcher with team control and that the Twins would like their stuff. I'm not certain it is an overpay. They gave up a very good prospect to get him 3 months ago. They might be open to gaining some good prospects/players for him now, no?

2) I'd argue the trade I brought up is an underpay for Anderson. He's only 26 and has been almost a 4 WAR player for 2 years in a row. Larnach, or the idea of Larnach, would be tough to lose. But the other 3 players that I named, are any of them future stars? Anderson is someone I see as being a core level player here.

1) I can agree with that, as it was super tough to give up Balazovic. Still, Gallen threw 80 innings in the majors last year, and 133 and 147 the two years prior in the minors. Balazovic has topped out at 93 innings, but I still think he has a chance to be something. Gallen, to me,  already looks like he is someone that we hope Balazovic could turn in to. Rosario leaving could hurt, as would Thorpe, but I love the potential. I also figured if our fans hate a trade, but don't loathe it with every fiber of their being, then it is probably fair

2) Brian Anderson has 4 years of team control, has had 3.9 and 3.8 Baseball Reference WAR in back to back years in Miami, and grades out well above average defensively, all while hitting 261/342/468 for a pretty bad Miami team. And I'd argue no one they are giving up is a true difference maker, even if all of them are solid/good.

3) The 3 free agents, those are guesses on money. I know 72 is what a lot of people are predicting for Bumgarner, but if 6 teams are offering 72, Twins may have to go above that to secure his services no?