The Twins Have Two Red-Hot, High-Ceiling Prospects Turning the Corner at Fort Myers

Cue the "wait until Rocco screws 'em up" crowd.

Future is looking great with both of these guys!!! Can’t wait when both are on twins!!! 

Winokur spent the offseason 'training his running gait?' Interesting. I'm curious as to what this means from the perspective of running for baseball. Running more efficiently between the bases? Quickness getting up to speed?

You've got Brandon Winokur and Payton Eales. Help Wanted, baseball, all body types apply within, lol. That is one thing I like about baseball. Anyone can find a place, but it is hard not to be excited about these big bodies. They seem to think Soto can handle a workload, might be a fast riser for a highschool pitcher.

Would Soto be someone they would send to Driveline? Or do they not send people so young there? With his inexperience with pitching, it would be great to get him a heavy dose of offseason coaching to really refine what he's working on.

Winokur has been fun to watch as he makes consistent improvement. There are a ton of parts to align but the data mirrors the eye test- he is getting progressively better at controlling his at bats. Hard not to love his athleticism in the field, at the plate, and on the bases.

I don't ever remember a time when the Twins farm system seemed to be in a better place.  Prospects thriving on both the mound and position players.  On the one hand, you could see the Twins parting with one or two guys to get an established player that could help the team NOW this off season.    

On the other hand, you realize that ownership and FO will probably not be adding any sizable payroll in the near future.  It's a good problem to have from a talent standpoint, but you have to admit that the Twins are pretty darn young right now, with guys like Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff on the hitters side, and Matthews, Festa, SWR, on the pitching side.  With guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Luke Keashall and Winokur pushing hard (and don't sleep on Culpepper) something's gotta give.  They just won't have room for all of these guys.  

Be careful drawing conclusions about A-ball in August. The best players have been promoted and the new players are seeing their first action as professionals. The batters are transitioning to wood bats and many of the pitchers are having mechanics altered by the professional coaches.

Soto...wow... is this a typo?  "a 17.1 inch horizontal break on his changeup"???  

That would be elite even at the MLB level.

13 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I don't ever remember a time when the Twins farm system seemed to be in a better place.  Prospects thriving on both the mound and position players.  On the one hand, you could see the Twins parting with one or two guys to get an established player that could help the team NOW this off season.    

On the other hand, you realize that ownership and FO will probably not be adding any sizable payroll in the near future.  It's a good problem to have from a talent standpoint, but you have to admit that the Twins are pretty darn young right now, with guys like Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff on the hitters side, and Matthews, Festa, SWR, on the pitching side.  With guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Luke Keashall and Winokur pushing hard (and don't sleep on Culpepper) something's gotta give.  They just won't have room for all of these guys.  

I agree with your overall thoughts regarding the state of Minnesota's system depth, but some of the hitters listed aren't exactly young anymore (though they are relatively inexperienced at the MLB level).  Larnach is 27, Wallner, Kirilloff and Miranda are 26.  Those are kind of "prime years", not "young years" at this point.  It doesn't mean that they can't still improve of course.  Soon enough they will be considered the veteran players as Kepler, Santana, Vazquez, Farmer, etc all reach the end of their tenure with the Twins.

It's fun when you can see a future that could be elite while watching some from the recent-past minor leaguers (Lewis, walner, Julien, swr, alcala and now Festa and mathews) keep us in contention now. 

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Minnesota does not have a particularly young team with the average age on the roster at 28.4yrs. They're right smack dab in the middle of MLB.

As far as the talent on the MLB roster, no position player under age 25 is showing promise as a great player right now. Mercifully, Jose Miranda and Matt Wallner won't be arb eligible next year, but Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff will all have crossed the arbitration threshold for 2025.

I disagree Emmanuel Rodriguez is knocking at anybody's door. He's missed so much time this year I don't think there's any chance he's up before mid next year at this point because of his unique plate approach/results, and with all the arbitration eligible players coming up, the Twins are going to need to move talent to save cash based on ownership's new cheapskate philosophy. The Twins are in desperate need of their MiLB development system now if they're going to compete against more motivated franchises in the AL Central going forward.

On the pitching side of things, nothing is more volatile than a pitching prospect. I don't think our pitching pipeline is that much better than the pipelines promised a couple years ago which included can't miss starter prospects like Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Josh Winder, Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow and the like. Every single one of those prospects failed as a starter with Duran turning into a good, not great reliever and Winder only showing a little promise in the bullpen.

The fact so many Twins have wedged their way into the top 100 this year is commendable for sure, but there are going to be some graduates before next year. Zebby Matthews will remain on the list next year as he won't eat through his rookie status, and he's impressing the hell out of everybody having started the first 1/3 of the season A+ ball this year... nobody has ever really seen something like what he's doing. Festa's likely going to graduate, but he's holding his own, which is impressive in its own right.

Lopez is expensively locked up for a bit already, but both Ober, and Ryan are hitting arbitration and will start becoming expensive in 2026. Jax, Duran, and Alcala are all reaching or across the arb threshold next year as well. Things are going to get tough.

That’s a rather bleak conclusion. The team will lose just about every player over the age of 30 after the season. Kepler, Farmer, Margot, Santana, Thielbar, Okert, and Richards. The rest of the team is under 28/29 except for Vasquez and Correa (maybe Stewart and Topa). Seems like a pretty young team to me. That’s also a bit brash to compare the young crop of pitchers today to the crop of pitchers from 3 years ago. This new crop has a higher upside and higher floor as can be seen by SWR and Festa so far and presumably Zebby and Morris. Not to mention Culpepper, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, Macleod, and Canterino who could all theoretically make appearances next season depending on health and effectiveness. The system as a whole is also top 5 according to basically every outlet. The system from 3 years ago doesn’t even compare to the system now.

46 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Minnesota does not have a particularly young team with the average age on the roster at 28.4yrs. They're right smack dab in the middle of MLB.

As far as the talent on the MLB roster, no position player under age 25 is showing promise as a great player right now. Mercifully, Jose Miranda and Matt Wallner won't be arb eligible next year, but Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff will all have crossed the arbitration threshold for 2025.

I disagree Emmanuel Rodriguez is knocking at anybody's door. He's missed so much time this year I don't think there's any chance he's up before mid next year at this point because of his unique plate approach/results, and with all the arbitration eligible players coming up, the Twins are going to need to move talent to save cash based on ownership's new cheapskate philosophy. The Twins are in desperate need of their MiLB development system now if they're going to compete against more motivated franchises in the AL Central going forward.

On the pitching side of things, nothing is more volatile than a pitching prospect. I don't think our pitching pipeline is that much better than the pipelines promised a couple years ago which included can't miss starter prospects like Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Josh Winder, Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow and the like. Every single one of those prospects failed as a starter with Duran turning into a good, not great reliever and Winder only showing a little promise in the bullpen.

The fact so many Twins have wedged their way into the top 100 this year is commendable for sure, but there are going to be some graduates before next year. Zebby Matthews will remain on the list next year as he won't eat through his rookie status, and he's impressing the hell out of everybody having started the first 1/3 of the season A+ ball this year... nobody has ever really seen something like what he's doing. Festa's likely going to graduate, but he's holding his own, which is impressive in its own right.

Lopez is expensively locked up for a bit already, but both Ober, and Ryan are hitting arbitration and will start becoming expensive in 2026. Jax, Duran, and Alcala are all reaching or across the arb threshold next year as well. Things are going to get tough.

We have a current much better pitching situation top to bottom in the organization than we have had since the early to mid 2000's.  As to Soto,  yes small sample size,  but you are showing a pitcher that can get his fastball up to 98 with up to 5 pitches and in his last start throwing 69% strikes.  He has effectively dominated A ball the last 2 months.  There is still things to work on,  but he has a higher ceiling than Chase Petty.  Whether as a trade chip or not he is another great asset to the organization.  

As to that 2023 I had stated several times,  that draft has the potential to be a franchise altering draft.  

1st Walker Jenkins  (top 10 rated prospect) - has the ceiling of a HOF type player,  but still wide variety of outcomes here

Ca Soto   (could be pushing top 100 lists,  looks like a #1 to #2 type pitcher)

2nd round Keaschall  -  amazing production - in top 100 lists and looks like a player that could have all star potential.  

3rd round  Winokur  -  sky is the limit with this kid.  Ceiling may be just slightly lower than Jenkins.  Lots to work on still but looks very very good.  

The remainder of the draft you have had some decent performances.  Of those I still think Hall has the best chance at becoming a legit prospect.  Just needs to increase the velocity and tad more, and regain his command that he had in college.  You have 9 other pitchers with several already in high A ball, that I wouldn't be surprised if a couple make it to the big leagues similar to the path of Ober, Festa, and Matthews.   

As to the organization, if we keep pumping out pitching prospects like we have this year, it will make life relatively easy for the organization.  

We still need to produce a number 1 type pitcher and you are starting to have some options.  Soto, Priellip, and Hill on paper have the ceilings to potention to reach that level.  Matthews may as well.  He obviously has immense control, but will need to learn to pitch outside the zone more with better hitters.  

Say what you will about ownership,  I will still say this front office is top 5 in drafting.   As long as they can continue to keep that performance up,  the organization should be in good shape.  

Just now, bean5302 said:

Considering how truly abysmal the Twins have been at developing pitching for the past 20 years, that's a pretty low bar. There's reason to be optimistic about this group, but there have been stud can't miss guys for years now who don't pan out. Again, nothing as volatile as a pitching prospect. Falvey's philosophy has been to trade pitching prospects, btw. So a guy like Soto might not even be on the team next year.

True,  but you often can't have elite pitching without first having those stud prospects.  The more eggs you have sooner or later 1 or 2 or more will hatch.  

Also on your analysis of the bats.  You still have a good core of controllable decent bats.  Royce Lewis being 25 is obviously your player with the highest ceiling.   I still think between Lee, Miranda, Julien, Martin, Wallner, and Larnach you have enough talent to supplement Buxton, Correa.  I have very little concern about our bats, and we have enough hitting prospects to continue to fill in holes for under performance or injury.  

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

...and all of the rest of the players will get a year older. Minnesota will not be fielding a particularly young team next year. It's not bleak, it's just a fact. The Twins are already $10-15MM over next year's budget with the roster they have currently. They're going to need to clear space already, they're not an especially young team as it is.

C Jeffers 28
1B Miranda 27
2B Julien 26
SS Correa 30
3B Lewis 26
LF Larnach 28
CF Buxton 31
RF Wallner 27
UI/UO Martin 26
DH Yunior Severino? 25
-------------
UI/UO Payton Eeles? 25 (Castro is overbudget)
UI Brooks Lee? 24
BC Vazquez 34
avg. 27.5 (wouldn't rank youngest 5 in baseball right now)

SR (1/2 of the top 4 will likely be traded for payroll space)
Lopez 29
Ryan 28
Ober 29
Paddack 29
SWR 24
avg 27.8

BP
Jax 30
Duran 27
Alcala 29
Stewart 33
Sands 27
Winder 28
Varland 27
Canterino? 27
avg 28.5

Total avg 27.9 yrs vs. 28.4 currently.



 

I was going to give a pass but man . . . I really think you need some happy pills.  Early this year you were complaining about the lack of pitching prospects, and now that players are truly performing you want rain on that parade.  As to the overall depth,  I don't care about age as much as how many years of control and where we have them.  And ultimately you can trade or find RP,  getting the SP is the costly factor.  

Right now

- 2 more years of cost control for Lopez

Ober and Ryan a couple more years of control 

5 years + on SWR, Matthews and Festa

Then you have all the other prospects.  No offense,  that is depth and control that very very few other teams have.  That is the envy of probably 20-25 other organizations.   

I have a feeling the salary situation will work itself out and be similar to what we are working with now.  

1 hour ago, Alex Wilde said:

That’s a rather bleak conclusion. The team will lose just about every player over the age of 30 after the season. Kepler, Farmer, Margot, Santana, Thielbar, Okert, and Richards. The rest of the team is under 28/29 except for Vasquez and Correa (maybe Stewart and Topa). Seems like a pretty young team to me. That’s also a bit brash to compare the young crop of pitchers today to the crop of pitchers from 3 years ago. This new crop has a higher upside and higher floor as can be seen by SWR and Festa so far and presumably Zebby and Morris. Not to mention Culpepper, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, Macleod, and Canterino who could all theoretically make appearances next season depending on health and effectiveness. The system as a whole is also top 5 according to basically every outlet. The system from 3 years ago doesn’t even compare to the system now.

Ive done 2 posts,  but ive come to the conclusion,  Bean really doesn't want to see anything positive with this organization,  or team.  I can understand frustration with ownership,  I can even understand questioning decision making by the front office.  However the quality of players in the organization from top to bottom is great.   I really am optimistic,  and hope at some point, ownership begins to open the purse strings again like they did a couple years a go.  I really think he does want to win championships,  so hopefully there is still a glimmer of hope.  I am more concerned about possibly losing Falvey and Lavine at the end of this year.  

31 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

UI/UO Payton Eeles? 25 (Castro is overbudget)
SR (1/2 of the top 4 will likely be traded for payroll space)
Lopez 29
Ryan 28
Ober 29
Paddack 29

They need to aggressively shop Vazquez and Paddack this offseason. Some team should be willing to take on one season of each contract. Willi Castro is a much better value at his salary than Christian Vazquez or Chris Paddack.

As per usual…a TD article puts the hex on a player. Soto was whacked around pretty good Wednesday night.

Oh, well. I also am excited about the prospects of both Soto and Winokur. Sure, anyone at the A- level remains a long-shot to reach their ceilings…but with these two, the ceilings seem very very high.

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

Soto...wow... is this a typo?  "a 17.1 inch horizontal break on his changeup"???  

That would be elite even at the MLB level.

He gets a 45% whiff rate on the pitch.  It's probably his best pitch and the 4-seam/sinker/changeup combination all seem to work well pitching north/south.  Slider (32% whiff) should work better than it has, which will likely be the main point of his offseason.

The Twins minor league pipeline is in as good a place as I have ever seen it. Sure seems like they are doing a much better job of both drafting, and development. Now if we could only figure out how to keep our guys healthy and not have so many serious injuries to our star players, we'd be golden. The one downside to having all this young talent is that management will be hesitant to go out and sign free agents. They'll try and tell us there is no need for outside reinforcements because of all the options in the minors. Problem is, young prospects don't work out all the time. They get hurt, they slump. There needs to be good solid vets mixed in to teach these new guys how to be good ball players. Unfortunately they'll keep cutting payroll and relying on our young guys and hoping for the best...