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Who is Zebby Matthews? Why should we be psyched? What might he struggle with? Let’s dig in.
Matthews is a right-handed pitcher with a frame ideally suited to start. Standing at 6’5, 225 pounds, he cuts an imposing figure on the mound. An eighth-round pick out of Western Carolina in 2022, Matthews is the second member of that draft class to make their MLB debut, after Brooks Lee. Matthews is also part of a quartet of highly-regarded starting pitchers from that draft, including fourth-rounder Andrew Morris, ninth-rounder Cory Lewis, and 13th-rounder C.J. Culpepper.
Before we dig into Matthews’s strengths and improvement opportunities on the mound, it’s worth stamping how monumental a win his promotion is for the Twins scouting and player development teams. For a pitcher drafted just over two years ago to make their MLB debut after surging into top-100 prospect consideration is a testament to the ability of the organization to identify and develop pitching talent.
Matthews has a solid case to make as the best pitcher in all of minor-league baseball in 2024. In 97 innings, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA, 2.12 FIP, and 2.51 xFIP, while striking out 30.5% of hitters, and walking just 1.9%. That’s absolute dominance, folks.
The Twins and Matthews made some tweaks to his pitch mix prior to the 2024 season. He previously threw a sweeper, which the organization ditched. Matthews split his cutter into two distinct pitches, a higher-vert cutter he throws primarily against left-handed hitters, and a gyro slider he throws to right-handed hitters.
Matthews’s pitch mix is reminiscent of Gerrit Cole. (Yes, really.) In addition to tweaks to his arsenal, it’s worth highlighting a few other welcome developments. Matthews's velocity has continued to trend up. He hit 99 mph with his fastball in one of his final Double-A starts. His 90th-percentile fastball velocity in 2024 has been 96.6 mph. That's hard to believe, for a prospect who came into the system throwing 91-92 mph.
Matthews’s other major asset is elite strike-throwing. Matthews has thrown strikes 70% of the time in 2024. Were he qualified and in MLB, that would rank him first, right ahead of Tarik Skubal (69.9%), and George Kirby (69%). If you combine this strike-throwing ability with a revamped five-pitch mix and burgeoning velocity. It’s easy to see how Matthews blew through the minor leagues so fast. Many hitters were down 0-2 before they got settled in the batter's box
Matthews’ greatest strength has become opponents greatest opportunity to do anything against him. You can expect opposing hitters to be aggressive with strikes early in the count, where Matthews lives in the zone seeking to gain leverage. There’s also a misconception Twins fandom has foisted on Matthews. You could see it in the tweet in which Jeff Passan broke the news of Matthews's call-up.
Zebby has elite control; he doesn’t yet have elite command. He commands his fastball well up in the zone. His secondary offerings need work in terms of location, and his ability to know how, when, and where to leave the zone with them. For Matthews to have sustainable success as an MLB starter, he’ll need to throw fewer strikes, leave the strike zone with strike-to-ball offerings more, and generate more chase.
I’d encourage folks to temper their expectations for Tuesday night, without dampening them for the long run. Matthews will be making his big-league debut and seeing his fourth level of 2024. There will be nerves. I’d also point to the fact that there are still adjustments to be made for Matthews at Triple-A, to be sustainably successful for the Twins. However his first start goes, Matthews will be part of the rotation mix for the Twins for the next half-decade. That, in itself, is a remarkable story of player development.
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