Why the Twins Were Right to Demote Alex Kirilloff to Minors

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

No.  That’s not quite right.  IF the left-hand hitter has always hit this particular pitcher pretty well, that goes into the “analytics/gut feel” analysis for both managers.  One manager just chooses a more intuitive sounding term, while the other says, we looked at the numbers and made our decision.  For most (but not all) left-handed batters, this scenario doesn’t really come up very often.  Most of the time an averagish RH batter will do better than most left handers.  

Analytics are a mathematical tool.  The "statistics" of a particular player are absorbed into the database and are a minute piece of data.  Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don't care.  I'm going with how I feel.

6 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Analytics are a mathematical tool.  The "statistics" of a particular player are absorbed into the database and are a minute piece of data.  Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don't care.  I'm going with how I feel.

Analysis of anything produces information.  Sometimes that information isn’t easily quantified mathematically (not in this specific case), at which point you can still use the information anecdotally.  VERY frequently anecdotal evidence and mathematical evidence line up (like almost all the time).  It just isn’t always easy to translate one into the other.  

“Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don’t care.  I’m going with how I feel.”  Again.  No.  Managers definitely care.  Gut feel says that I have anecdotal information that will enlighten my decision.  It’s still analytics.  It is (and always has been) a pretty rare manager who would choose a significantly poorer statistical possibility over a greater one.  It’s the seatbelt argument.  Lots of people drive successfully and successfully survive accidents without wearing seatbelts, but the odds are much better if people in the car are wearing seatbelts.  Same thing with people who say they don’t need to go to a doctor or a dentist.  Most people would choose to go to a doctor or dentist when needed and likely would wear a seatbelt on their way there. 

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

True, but it could mean Kirilloff is traded at the deadline if they think he has no future with the team.

Buy low sell high - Kirilloff is in the ‘buy low’ phase at the moment.

This had to happen. Kirilloff was not hitting, was hurting us defensively, and clogging up the lineup by taking at bats away from  Larnach. Larnach is hitting and also needs the development time. I'm actually in the camp that Larnach's improvement this year on breaking balls may mean that he can be solid consistent major league hitter with OPS above .750 and 20 HRs a year. Let's play him at least four days a week and find out if that's possible. 

I actually hope they call up either Martin or even Helman. Our greatest need is at 2B, not at 1B or LF. I see Lewis, Santana, and Miranda as essentially a three-man group covering 3B, 1B, and DH. All three are playing well and deserve to play pretty much every day. Larnach and Margot are actually forming a pretty good platoon tandem in LF. I was one of the guys with a torch and pitchfork to run Margot out of town in May, He has been one of our best hitters since about May 15 along with Miranda.

What we really need is someone that can play 2B and potentially lead off so Castro can go back to his preferred role as a super utility playing four days a week for other guys, including being the backup CF, and doing some pinch hitting and pinch running. I would really think about giving either Martin or Helman some run at 2B since Julien is still not hitting in AAA. Both have high OBPs in AAA (Martin .466, Helman .365), and could potentially be a leadoff hitter. We need a true lead off hitter bad. I would start them in the number nine spot see how they hit but I would play them regularly see if there's something there. The hope would be that whoever we call up can lead off or even be that "second leadoff hitter" in the 9 hole while consistently playing a solid 2B, That would really improve the lineup.

45 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Analytics are a mathematical tool.  The "statistics" of a particular player are absorbed into the database and are a minute piece of data.  Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don't care.  I'm going with how I feel.

Incorrect.  Analytics is the process of sorting data points and assigning particular levels of importance to them.  Applied analysis is the process of ranking those levels of importance in a particular situation and choosing the strategy based on your analysis of the most important factors.

Rocco believes in the platoon importance over the "hot" hand, generally.  Lately, Margot has been getting at bats against RH.  Kepler is the lefty most likely to face a lefty.  Many things can rank higher in importance than a specific at bat at any given time.  We don't have those details.

Gut feel is both a data point and an importance level.  It's not typically classified as analytics because I can't put it on a spreadsheet but it is absolutely an analytic measure. 

Old school managers were incredibly analytic, but not quantified.  I chuckle that the nerds basically are at the same place as Earl Weaver 50 years ago.  Pitching, defense and the 3 run home run.  Ol Earl would have loved OPS and OPS+.

Most modern baseball fans confuse analysis for quantification of data.

Kirilloff is not in the same category as a guy like Wallner (352 PA, wRC+ 129) or even Julien (602 PA, wRC+ 124). Julien, by the way, was always at the very edge of sustainable plate approach methodology. There's nothing new about that. Everybody following metrics and Julien knows he was riding a razors edge, but he could still put it back together. Julien's struggles are exactly what scouts and fans alike are concerned about in Emmanuel Rodriguez's somewhat similar results. Also, Julien worked hard at improving his defense, and although I'd still grade him as pretty rough looking, he's definitely improved.

Kirilloff (884 PA, wRC+ 100) was already arb eligible this past offseason, he's 27 with 900 MLB plate appearances across 4 years under his belt. Larnach (830 PA, wRC+ 99) is closer to Kirilloff in terms of how much of a longshot a player might be to turn it around since Larnach had about 700 plate appearances coming into this season, but Larnach has great baseball instincts which allows him to be relatively neutral as a corner outfielder. I never expected Larnach to show what he has this year with the reduced K rate pushing his bat to a different level, but I always accepted Larnach gets the most out of his game his limited athleticism can grant him. Larnach is also still a long shot to keep producing, but he's at least earned a long look. Conversely, Kirilloff continues to drop routine fly balls, position himself incorrectly, and miss infield grounders. On Tuesday, I watched Kirilloff awkwardly misplay a throw to first by Jeffers to catch a runner leading off too far. I cringed as @RpR popped into my head while I thought "Santana makes that play." Of course, after Kirilloff didn't truly want to accept responsibility or say the right things after costing the Twins a playoff game vs. the Astros last year after a defensive flub at 1B, he could have gone all in this offseason learning 1B, but it doesn't seem like he did.

Alex Kirilloff has a very low ceiling, even if he does reach his potential. With a swing designed to produce line drives rather than fly ball home runs, an inability to take walks, no athleticism, and poor instincts, he's at best a 1.5 WAR DH or 2.0 WAR 1B if he improves everything about his game as his absolute ceiling in my honest opinion. I made the Nomar Mazara comp for Alex Kirilloff on another thread. If you look at the two from an expectations and career batting results standpoint, it'd be impossible to tell them apart without a hint at who was who.

Certainly other teams have prospects who are a flash in the pan or struggle from time to time. I saw some pretty ridiculous comps in here, though.
Julio Rodriguez? That Julio Rodriguez? The one with 12 career WAR at age 23 who is wRC+ 96 this year while still on the path for 2.5 WAR campaign?

Jackson Holliday? 36 plate appearances from the 20 year old who the Orioles are manipulating service time rather than demoting because of his results; he's a comp for Twins prospects struggles?

Colt Keith is 22 with 206 PA...

If we want a comp, we can use Spencer Torkelson (1318 PA, wRC+ 91). He's also only 24, but he's probably more of a bust than a guy with a hiccup.

Not all prospects work out. Kirilloff is one of those who is a long shot to ever produce enough with his bat to justify more than a journeyman status like C.J. Cron, but even that level will require Kirilloff to learn to play defense and improve his bat a little. If the Twins DFA'd Kirilloff today, it'd be shortsighted, but it's unlikely they'd regret it.

4 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I know I sound like a broken record - but if the Twins fired Popkins today, is there another MLB team that would hire him? His resume and track record are non-existent. 

Hitting coaches - can anybody credibly name more than a few at the MLB level? Blaming them or thinking a new one is going to immediately change things - I doubt it. It seems to work better for pitching.

12 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Since I cannot see on TV, wondering if the young guys have a veteran to get immediate feedback from.  I remember when the kids would go to Cruz and for pitching maybe Santana?  Is there a team chemistry?  

I suspect for the Twins it is Correa - and maybe Santana. From what I've observed, teams that are going well always have 'chemistry' and when they're not going well, not so much. The Twins have been really up and down this year, but I suspect it would be better 'chemistry' if Lewis had been playing every day and Julien and Wallner had been performing like the second half of last year.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

His value could be even lower next spring.

Yeah, but if nobody is buying now, it doesn't really matter. My guess is nobody will buy now - why would they?