Core 4: Reranking the Minnesota Twins' Young Pitching Prospects

Varland is young?  Suddenly I feel better

I agree with Webellik........Varland is BP guy.  He is typically fantastic for 2-3 innings.  He has All Star potential as a relief pitcher.  Apparently doesn't believe he's better there, so hopefully the change in mindset occurs or he gets traded.  

He can still become a relief pitcher later in the season when rosters expand, we need him as a starter because we've already lost 2 to injury, One more goes down, where are we then if he isnt ready to pitch 5 innings?

3 of the 5 starters are already rookies, what happens when one of them loses the edge for a few weeks?

Hard to be anything but excited about the potential for solid starting pitching for the Twins going forward. The list (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Festa, Varland, Matthews, and Paddack) can grow when Morris and Culpepper are ready with Prielipp, Soto, Bohorquez, and Roque down the line still.

Woods Richardson has shown enough in 21 MLB starts to lead the list. His improved velocity and stuff this year are encouraging. Maintaining his current performance makes Simeon a really good #4 SP. 

Festa and Matthews still have to show that they can adapt within a game and pitch decently on days when their stuff is less than hoped. I think they will. Festa seems to have the edge on his stuff but results still count.

I would agree with those who believe in Andrew Morris because he has looked good whenever I watch him pitch.

Lastly, there is a reason the Twins still see Louie Varland as a starting pitcher. He is strong and has the pitches. Sequencing, command, and ability to forget the last pitch are areas where Varland can improve. Hard contact will happen to every pitcher (see Blyleven, Bert), but focus and ability to rebound with good pitches on most pitches creates outs. Varland may be moved into the bullpen again in late September but more performances where the line is 6 innings and 0-3 runs in his starts put the Twins in a solid position to win games. 

Yeah, Twins fans have reasons to feel good about the young starting pitching on August 17. 

I think SWR should be #2 on this list right now. Matthews might pass him, but performance counts and SWR has put up an ERA+ of 110 in MLB over 107 IP and that matters. Maybe he doesn't have as much upside...but he's getting the job done and it's not that small of a sample size any longer.

But really, this list should be longer and looked at where the next set are on the rankings as well: Morris, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, Culpepper. Let's look at the full next 10 prospect-type pitchers in the pipeline and see how they're landing for everyone as future rotation options.

Add Morris to that group.  Even if two or three don’t pan out, the future looks bright.  

I would flip Matthews and Festa.  Impressed the you know what out of me in his first start.  Understand, we need to see more.

Hard to not be hopeful about our young pitchers coming up. I'd put SWR on top based on the fact he's basically saved our rotation this year. He's put up good numbers and kept our team in the game constantly. Next I'd put Mathews and Festa. Both have great stuff, but still have things they need to develop and work on. Too small of sample sizes to be sold on either of them being ready for the majors. Varland should be in the bullpen. Due to injuries, we're forced to keep him stretched out. I think whenever he gets moved to relief, he can be a great weapon for us like he was late last year, letting it fly at 100MPH. After that, we've got a lot of talent coming up the system. Morris looks like the next man up, Id rather see him start before Varland. Then we've got Raya, Lewis, Prelipp, Culpeper. Canterino could also be a Alcala or Jax type setup man for our bullpen if he ever gets healthy. Really wish we'd get an update on him sometime...

Ober, Lopez, then Festa, Matthews and Sim. That five makes a pretty good starting rotation. Swap in Varland from the pen for whoever falters, and you've got a pretty good staff. Bring up Andrew Morris for spot duty in the pen and the rotation, and you've got an even better staff. 

Frankly, I'm seeing the kind of problem you want. Enough serious talent to shuffle 'em around and still win games. All these guys are strike throwers, and stingy with walks. This is a playoff team. Not yet a Series team, but they should be able to squeak into the tournament, maybe even surprise somebody. I'm not seeing inevitable losing here. I'm wondering how good these guys can be.

Varland and SWR have surpassed well beyond the norm for prospect status. The question remains for them can they be like Ober and Ryan and develop enough to have a chance at getting paid in arbitration time, not ranking. Festa and Mathew’s have reached the major leagues as necessary pieces. Question one is are they good enough to stick or not. Question 2 is do they develop enough to get paid when arbitration level is reached. Ranking is insignificant at this point. Now ranking the next group would be informative as knowing what will be the 6-9 starter is always important and will the team have to keep a Dobnak just in case 

Does it really matter which is #1 or #4?  SWR has clearly had the best growth year by pitching 100 MLB innings.  
Festa has lights out, make batters look silly type stuff.

Matthews is the raging bull and has Ober type #1.5 SP in his future. 
Varland and his heater can certainly be a mid rotation guy but at some point, (every Sept?)  will he go to the pen to be the 6/7inning stopper.  It sure seems logical. 
Everyone of these young guns is why Falvine were hired.  They all have LOTS of development left to discover and they all have 7-10 years of MLB careers ahead of them. Hopefully all as Twins!!! 
They will not be traded because you can’t give this type of stuff up and upgrade to what? 
The next group, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, Raya and Preillip are going to be knocking doors down in ‘25 &’26! 
Right on their heals is Soto, Dasan Hill, Tanner Hall, the Kid in the Dominican and probably 2 other kids that find the Falvine magic.  
I probably left out a guy or two so my apologies in advance! 
 

Until these guys start failing, other teams will be calling with a shopping list of who they want,  the sign on the store front should read,… “Not for Sale without Large Overpayment .”

I realize this pertains to only four MLB pitchers, but that's included here, too.

Zebby

Morris

Lewis

Festa

SWR (with apologies, I'm looking at attainable upside a few years down the road vs probability of getting to MLB as a starter)

Culpepper

Bengard/Soto

Varland is going to be a reliever as soon as the pipeline pushes everybody through, maybe before.

16 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I like the store front window sign. Of course, not all (maybe not even most) of these will pan out, but it sure feels different than the pipeline from the prior era.

Very true but we don’t talk about the failures much as they slide away without mention.  Like that kid that got in a bar fight, the lefty that beat cancer, the aussie that was homesick…. We have plenty of failures and always will.  The pipeline is pumping full blast tho. 

7 hours ago, VikingTwinTwolf said:

I agree with Webellik........Varland is BP guy.  He is typically fantastic for 2-3 innings.  He has All Star potential as a relief pitcher.  Apparently doesn't believe he's better there, so hopefully the change in mindset occurs or he gets traded.  

At the end of the day it's not HIS decision whether he starts or relieves.  He may have a preference but someone else ultimately makes the call.  That call is what it has been.  Regardless of what he, the fan base in general or TD readers prefer. 

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Fair enough, but Berrios' starting pitching time with Toronto has averaged out to a 4.40 ERA - he hasn't been 'lights out' for the Blue Jays either.

Maybe but in the ensuing years we gave up significant assets to get guys to fill the hole his departure left in the rotation.  Mahle, Gray, Lopez.  Any or all of those deals may have been unnecessary had we held on to the best we developed on our own in a decade.  Just sayin

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

MLB-ready is often an oxymoron when I hear it.  If someone's so darned "ready", why ain't they using him themselves instead of trading him?  I take it with a grain of salt and am prepared for either a lower ceiling than advertised (Martin) or else a longer gestation period (Richardson).  I'm patient when prospects are acquired at a young age - Richardson wasn't yet 21 on the day he was traded to us, just a baby*.  My only requirement is that they pan out.  (Pretty low bar I set, eh?)

 

* mixing metaphors is just one of the many fine services I offer the discriminating reader

Major league ready means there is nothing lrft for them to prove in the minors. 

Prospects that pan out that are traded for the non perennial all star player tend to be the high ranked prospects the club trades because the club doesn’t think they are going to make it. Credit the receiving club for any success they might have.