Should the Twins Swap Infield Depth for an Ace?

Knowing the FO  and how they operate sometimes , I would say no to the 3 pitchers above with only 1 year of control  .. 

They are pitchers that would be offered a qualifying offer and Twins would receive compensation  , so there is that to add back a prospect from the deal to think about ...

Seattle and Miami  have alot of pitching talent that are more team controllable and cheaper ,  I would focus my attention with them for a trade  ...   

We do need more than just pitching , two positions of concern are 1st base and centerfield  and we need the coaching to be better at getting the players to make contact in the clutch especially  , coaching emphasizing  fundamentals would be nice to , we need to improve in these areas  ...

The boom or bust theory doesn't quite work for the Twins  or for me either ...

This is the year for the Twins FO to change philosophy and sign a Free Agent picther instead of trading for one. If they are going to get a true Sonny Gray replacement, and by that I mean at least a #2 guy for the rotation, the costs in prospects that the Twins will have to send in return is just too high. 

The current payroll is around $120M with a max amount, we are told, being $135M. So they have $15M to work with. If it was me, I trade Polanco for prospects and free up another $10M. Now I've got $25M to use on a front line FA Pitcher. To me this is the simplest solution that doesn't cost any prospects. In fact I gain prospects from the Polanco trade. 

I would not want to give up a top prospect for 1 year of a pitcher.  It is not sound roster building.  Even if you feel they are the 1 missing piece, you do it too often your gut your farm systems and eventually you run out of prospects to have depth when injuries set in, or you lose guys to FA.  If you can get any of them for a mix of guys we have depth with, and middle of road prospects then I would be more open to it.  

Unless the Twins philosophy is going through a major overhaul the gamble on a one year rental star just doesn’t work….especially with pitching. I’m all for packaging Polanco and/or Kepler with high prospects but it needs to be for a younger pitcher with team control such as what Seattle might have available. The one year of savings for moving Polanco/Kepler doesn’t free up $20+/year needed for a multi year extension to keep them around for our opening contention window.

As long as it doesn’t include Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins, or Royce Lewis I would consider it. I really like Julien’s upside as a hitter. Julien does appear capable of hitting .280 with a high OPS and 30 homers, so his average defense would be acceptable. Trading Polanco and Kepler won’t get them a potential ace, but would free salary for such a move. Some young players would have to be included, but hopefully not the three I mentioned. They are or will be impact players I believe. 

53 minutes ago, rv78 said:

This is the year for the Twins FO to change philosophy and sign a Free Agent picther instead of trading for one. If they are going to get a true Sonny Gray replacement, and by that I mean at least a #2 guy for the rotation, the costs in prospects that the Twins will have to send in return is just too high. 

The current payroll is around $120M with a max amount, we are told, being $135M. So they have $15M to work with. If it was me, I trade Polanco for prospects and free up another $10M. Now I've got $25M to use on a front line FA Pitcher. To me this is the simplest solution that doesn't cost any prospects. In fact I gain prospects from the Polanco trade. 

Couldn’t agree more. And if need be, move Vázquez for another $10MM in savings (the savings would be enough - don’t need much in terms of prospects returned).  Take the $35MM and resign both Gray and Maeda to 2 year deals.  Bump payroll to the top limit of $140MM if required.  Within that two year period our next batch of promising (and cheap) starters should be ready and  cash will be available for possible extensions (Ryan, Paddack, Ober and others).  
 

With cutting payroll this season, production per $ spent is incredibly important.  We have five high cost position players: Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, and Vasquez. Correa and Buxton aren’t going anywhere and Kepler (high production second half Kepler) plays a position of relative weak depth at the moment. Polanco and Vasquez’s production are most cost effectively easily replaced.  Both have two years of control and won’t/shouldn’t be here next year anyway.  Those two (in that order) make the most sense to move for FA starting pitching.

I love the picture of Lewis and Lee manning the left side. I'm very disappointed I will never be able to see them do it barring an injury to Correa. I would have been a match made in heaven. 

I don't think they will give up a young stud for an 'ace' with 1 year of control.  They would consider trading a young IF for someone they feel has the potential to be an 'ace' in the future - ala Lopez.  Even with that being the goal, I would not be interested in moving on from Lewis or Lee.

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

This is the year for the Twins FO to change philosophy and sign a Free Agent picther instead of trading for one. If they are going to get a true Sonny Gray replacement, and by that I mean at least a #2 guy for the rotation, the costs in prospects that the Twins will have to send in return is just too high. 

The current payroll is around $120M with a max amount, we are told, being $135M. So they have $15M to work with. If it was me, I trade Polanco for prospects and free up another $10M. Now I've got $25M to use on a front line FA Pitcher. To me this is the simplest solution that doesn't cost any prospects. In fact I gain prospects from the Polanco trade. 

What about 2025 team payroll.  You would have to trade that starter if we don’t get to the 7th game of the World Series and we would need to replace the TV revenue too.

Sticking to subject, which is should the Twins trade "infield depth" for an ace, I'd answer "sure"! There has been a lot of hand wringing above about losing a good prospect or two for a top pitcher. But we do have plenty of infield depth, both at MLB level and big talent coming soon from the minors. Can't play them all.

Polanco/Kepler/Vasquez will only be appealing to other teams that can afford their salaries. That rules out teams such as Tampa Bay, for example. So if we're shooting for Glasnow, we'll have to give up young talent. For him why not a decent young infielder (Severino?), a lottery ticket, and SWR to backfill their pitching opening. A team such as Seattle is probably more able to take on Polanco or Kepler's salary as part of a deal for one of their young pitchers.

Point is, the article didn't suggest mortgaging the future. It asked about spending some of our IF depth capital to go and get an ace type pitcher. Makes sense to me.

Second post - sorry. I realize the trade idea for Glasnow is weak - just wanted to use an example. Even for just 1 year, getting Glasnow will require more.

41 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I don't think they will give up a young stud for an 'ace' with 1 year of control.  They would consider trading a young IF for someone they feel has the potential to be an 'ace' in the future - ala Lopez.

The issue for an ace or a #2 for 1 year is the compensation.  Most likely younger pitchers can be offered the QO and get draft compensation.   In the Sonny Gray situation it worked out well because not only did you get great performance, but you can parlay that into another lottery ticket high school pitcher most likely similar to Petty.  Then it is does Petty make it or the pick.  However we have already accumulated nearly a 10 WAR from 2 years of Sonny.  That is a huge amount to catch up on.  Joe Ryan has given us 3.8 WAR in 2 1/2 seasons. 

The only way I'd give up our IF talent for an ace with only one-year remaining is if we could negotiate a longer-term deal with the player/agent as part of the deal thereby eliminating the risk of losing him after one year.  I get the QO and draft pick advantage, but to me one year of the player plus a pick is not enough compensation for the prospects that said team would want from us.

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

This is the year for the Twins FO to change philosophy and sign a Free Agent picther instead of trading for one. If they are going to get a true Sonny Gray replacement, and by that I mean at least a #2 guy for the rotation, the costs in prospects that the Twins will have to send in return is just too high. 

The current payroll is around $120M with a max amount, we are told, being $135M. So they have $15M to work with. If it was me, I trade Polanco for prospects and free up another $10M. Now I've got $25M to use on a front line FA Pitcher. To me this is the simplest solution that doesn't cost any prospects. In fact I gain prospects from the Polanco trade. 

And perhaps Vazquez too.

8 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Knowing the FO  and how they operate sometimes , I would say no to the 3 pitchers above with only 1 year of control  .. 

They are pitchers that would be offered a qualifying offer and Twins would receive compensation  , so there is that to add back a prospect from the deal to think about ...

Seattle and Miami  have alot of pitching talent that are more team controllable and cheaper ,  I would focus my attention with them for a trade  ...   

We do need more than just pitching , two positions of concern are 1st base and centerfield  and we need the coaching to be better at getting the players to make contact in the clutch especially  , coaching emphasizing  fundamentals would be nice to , we need to improve in these areas  ...

The boom or bust theory doesn't quite work for the Twins  or for me either ...

I agree with this. The first thing I thought is the Twins do have glaring holes at 1B and CF. You can’t count on Buxton or Kirilloff being healthy with their recent devastating injury histories.

One thing I’m sure of is they should under no circumstances trade Edouard Julien. He’s one of the most uniquely talented players I’ve seen ascend to the major leagues for the Twins since the 60s. 

Id rather just spend millions from the billionaires teams’ equity to buy another ace. In the next two years, at least 2 infielders will be gone just from expiring contracts. We will need Lee and Miller or others to develop and fill those roles. In 2024, the whiteys are hoping they can start Colson Montgomery at SS who is22 and compares to Lee. There really is no reason that ownership shouldn’t splurge on pitching when much of our roster is turning over to an even younger, high profile prospects who will be the core for hopefully the next decade. Most of our top prospects are only 2-3 years away from starting and being massive contributors with cheap prearb contracts. If ever there was a time to invest in ace level pitching that will be here for 4-5 years, its right now. 

I think the best way forward is to trade for a Keller and/or Gilbert, then aquire Chaz Mccormick from houston

7 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The issue for an ace or a #2 for 1 year is the compensation.  Most likely younger pitchers can be offered the QO and get draft compensation.   In the Sonny Gray situation it worked out well because not only did you get great performance, but you can parlay that into another lottery ticket high school pitcher most likely similar to Petty.  Then it is does Petty make it or the pick.  However we have already accumulated nearly a 10 WAR from 2 years of Sonny.  That is a huge amount to catch up on.  Joe Ryan has given us 3.8 WAR in 2 1/2 seasons. 

We also need to stay away from signing anyone that turned down a QO because signing anyone of them means we give up a draft pick. It sure seems like a smart play would be trading Farmer or Polo for a prospect (s) then use that available salary to go sign a Jordan Montgomery or Yamamoto. 

10 hours ago, rv78 said:

This is the year for the Twins FO to change philosophy and sign a Free Agent picther instead of trading for one. If they are going to get a true Sonny Gray replacement, and by that I mean at least a #2 guy for the rotation, the costs in prospects that the Twins will have to send in return is just too high. 

The current payroll is around $120M with a max amount, we are told, being $135M. So they have $15M to work with. If it was me, I trade Polanco for prospects and free up another $10M. Now I've got $25M to use on a front line FA Pitcher. To me this is the simplest solution that doesn't cost any prospects. In fact I gain prospects from the Polanco trade. 

Really  the only one I would consider in free agency  is Montgomery  because he is left handed and we could use that in our rotation  ...

The free agency  picture is kinda weak on pitching compared to other years  ...

3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree with this. The first thing I thought is the Twins do have glaring holes at 1B and CF. You can’t count on Buxton or Kirilloff being healthy with their recent devastating injury histories.

One thing I’m sure of is they should under no circumstances trade Edouard Julien. He’s one of the most uniquely talented players I’ve seen ascend to the major leagues for the Twins since the 60s. 

Hyperbole much?  Me thinks you are overvaluing Julien just a wee bit. Or maybe a country mile. 

Polo and Kepler are valuable to win now teams. No rebuilding club wants them. How many clubs fit that description I don’t know. Seattle and the Yankees come to mind. However all clubs would be interested in Julien I would think. Can someone tell me what Juliens trade value is compared to Polancos?

On 11/21/2023 at 7:59 PM, Linus said:

Hyperbole much?  Me thinks you are overvaluing Julien just a wee bit. Or maybe a country mile. 

Methinks you haven’t seen very many great hitters like Lyman Bostock, who I think Julien has the capability of being a comp.

Methinks you may be in error if you think an over .380 OBP with power by a rookie is something that can be overvalued. Methinks also you would be hard pressed to name 5 rookies all time without using the internet who had the command of the strike zone that Julien does.

Methinks your post is off by a country mile. Julien has done nothing but hit and carry very high OBP through the minors to the majors, has a very, unusually sweet swing, power to the opposite field and improved vastly as a second baseman in a very short time.